Which will die first, the DSLR or the dedicated consumer video camera?

Discussion in 'Digital Photography' started by RichA, Oct 7, 2011.

  1. RichA

    RichA Guest

    Hard choice. The last we'll likely see of either will be in the pro
    ranks, my guess is video will die second.
    RichA, Oct 7, 2011
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  2. RichA

    charles Guest

    Me, probably.
    charles, Oct 7, 2011
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  3. RichA

    Me Guest

    I think the "pro-ranked consumer video camera" was never born, as I've
    never seen one, so I'm surprised that you seem to think it can die.
    As for your predictions, if the world market consisted only of
    obsessive, repetitive, you (and you only), you'd be worth listening to
    on such matters. But it doesn't, so you aren't.
    Me, Oct 7, 2011
  4. RichA

    RichA Guest

    Just because Nikon decided to produce an inferior mirrorless (compared
    to the others) in order to protect a dwindling DSLR market doesn't
    mean it won't keep dwindling.
    RichA, Oct 7, 2011
  5. RichA

    Bruce Guest

    You're right.

    Nikon's choice of sensor size was clearly to avoid competing with its
    own entry-level DSLRs, and to this extent the Nikon 1 System has been
    successful. But DSLR sales will continue to decline.

    In the days of 35mm film, there were quite a few reasonably priced
    35mm p+s cameras which delivered image quality that was close to that
    obtainable with 35mm SLRs. There was high demand for them, and a
    lower demand for APS p+s cameras that delivered inferior results.

    Fast forward to today and there is no longer a common film/sensor
    format in the way there was with 35mm film. P+s digicams use small
    sensors so most produce results that are significantly inferior to
    those obtainable with DSLRs that use larger sensors.

    What mirrorless CSCs are doing is providing a similar choice to the
    days of 35mm film. CSCs give near-DSLR image quality from a smaller
    body but one which uses a DSLR-sized sensor. So people who would have
    bought high quality 35mm p+s cameras can now choose a CSC that does
    much the same job.

    Personally I think there is still a gaping hole in the market. I am
    convinced that there is latent demand for p+s digicams that use larger
    sensors but with non-interchangeable lenses. I believe that there are
    a lot of people who would welcome a selection of cameras that offered
    near-DSLR image quality but without the hassle, complication and
    expense of interchangeable lenses.

    The Fujifilm X100 and X10 and Ricoh GR Digital hint at this market,
    but the X100 in particular is too expensive to be other than a niche
    camera, and the X10 and GR Digital's sensors are too small. There is
    also Sigma's DP series that sells in penny numbers. But I imagine
    that cameras with Micro Four Thirds or APS-C sensors and very good
    quality zoom lenses in the (equivalent) 28-80mm or 35-105mm range
    would sell very well indeed.

    At this time, that market is largely unsatisfied. Instead, people
    have to choose between expensive system cameras, either CSCs or DSLRs,
    with the unnecessary complication of interchangeable lenses, or p+s
    and superzooms with tiny sensors. There is money to be made in the
    yawning gap between these two extremes.
    Bruce, Oct 7, 2011
  6. RichA

    PeterN Guest

    Did I miss your posting your analytic qualifications?
    PeterN, Oct 7, 2011
  7. RichA

    Me Guest

    Just because Nikon produced a small format interchangeable lens system
    which you think is inferior means nothing at all.
    They could produce a Dx or Fx format mirrorless camera tomorrow.
    Me, Oct 7, 2011
  8. RichA

    Robert Coe Guest

    : On 7/10/2011 12:38 p.m., RichA wrote:
    : > Hard choice. The last we'll likely see of either will be in the pro
    : > ranks, my guess is video will die second.
    : >
    : I think the "pro-ranked consumer video camera" was never born, as I've
    : never seen one, so I'm surprised that you seem to think it can die.
    : As for your predictions, if the world market consisted only of
    : obsessive, repetitive, you (and you only), you'd be worth listening to
    : on such matters. But it doesn't, so you aren't.

    I was covering an event the other day and got into a conversation with a
    professional videographer. When he saw my Canon equipment, he mentioned that
    he has a 5D on his wish list - for its video capability! When I asked him why
    he, of all people, wouldn't chose a dedicated video camera, he said it was
    because one good enough to satisfy him would cost $8000.

    Robert Coe, Oct 8, 2011
  9. RichA

    DanP Guest

    Why, are they at war with each other?

    DanP, Oct 8, 2011
  10. RichA

    Robert Coe Guest

    : Why, are they at war with each other?

    They're on Rich's Enemies List.

    Robert Coe, Oct 10, 2011
  11. Cost. The cost of producing chips is very area-based (though worse than
    linear, especially as it nears the high end of practical sizes).

    When you're producing mass-market products, a few cents per unit is big,
    50 cents a unit is huge . I remember being told that if you could cut
    50 cents out of the cost of a terminal in the 1980s, you'd paid your
    salary for the year, easily.
    David Dyer-Bennet, Oct 10, 2011
  12. RichA

    Bruce Guest

    Yes, DSLR sales have already declined significantly in Japan.

    The imaging trade association that supplies the sales figures
    unhelpfully groups DSLRs *and* mirrorless CSCs into the same category,
    so it is impossible to separate the figures. But it is clear from
    market share statistics that the companies that don't make mirrorless
    CSCs have lost significant market share, while the companies that do
    have gained. The biggest gain is by Sony whose NEX system is selling
    exceptionally well, while sales of Alpha DSLRs and SLTs are still

    In Europe, the figures are not easily available but there is a similar
    trend, just not as strong as in Japan. Here, sales of DSLRs have
    fallen by only a small percentage, but market share is significantly
    down. Meanwhile, sales of mirrorless CSCs have grown rapidly.

    I understand that sales of mirrorless CSCs in the North American
    market have grown less strongly and they don't yet threaten the market
    share of DSLRs.

    Alas, yes. ;-)

    True. The cellphone camera is the elephant in the room. However, I'm
    not at all impressed with mine, an HTC Sensation 4G with an 8 MP
    sensor. I'm not impressed with my partner's new iPhone 4S either. But
    they are good enough for many casual users, and I have used images
    from my HTC for eBay items.

    I'm not talking about the mass market, who will - as you say - go for
    a superzoom. I'm talking about people who value top image quality in
    the near-DSLR class who would prefer not to have the complication of
    interchangeable lenses.

    This is the gaping hole in the market. They are not happy with
    superzooms, nor with cameras like the Canon G12, Nikon P7100 and
    Panasonic LX5. They want a larger sensor but without the expense of
    interchangeable lenses.

    True, but we aren't talking about most people, because they are the
    ones already buying p+s and superzooms and using their cellphones.

    The Fujifilm X100 was designed and priced as a premium product, one
    that certainly wasn't aimed at the mass market. Despite that, it is
    selling between six and eight times faster than Fujifilm expected. My
    colleagues were a little shocked when I increased our initial order by
    four times. We still sold out in less than two weeks. I managed to
    obtain more before the tsunami hit UK stocks, and they sold even
    faster. We still cannot get enough X100s to satisfy demand.

    A version with a zoom lens, a simpler viewfinder and a less expensive
    finish *but the same sensor size* would sell even more strongly. So
    that is what we are asking Fujifilm (and other camera companies) to
    Bruce, Oct 10, 2011
  13. RichA

    bucky3 Guest

    You can count me in that category. My ideal camera would be a
    mirrorless, APS-C sensor with a non-interchangeable standard zoom
    (e.g. 24-80mm equivalent) lens, ~$500 USD. I want the better IQ, low
    light capability, shallow DOF, in as compact of a form factor as
    possible. Currently, mirrorless cameras cost more than the entry level
    DSLR, so I ended up getting a DSLR.
    bucky3, Oct 11, 2011
  14. RichA

    Bruce Guest

    That's what I had in mind, but $500 is optimistic.

    Manufacturers know that much of today's DSLR market will be replaced
    by tomorrow's mirrorless CSC market, so they are maximising their
    margins on CSCs while they still can. Retail margins are also higher.
    What is interesting is that used CSCs sell for much lower prices,
    losing a much higher percentage of the original purchase price than
    DSLRs. This would tend to suggest that new CSCs are significantly

    I am extremely annoyed with Nikon for setting ridiculously high prices
    for the J1 and especially the V1 CSC bodies. I don't like the cameras
    anyway, but at the prices asked they represent poor value for money.
    Bruce, Oct 11, 2011
  15. []
    Interesting. Is it perhaps also a sign of product immaturity?
    Is anyone buying these Nikons, and if so, who?

    David J Taylor, Oct 11, 2011
  16. RichA

    Bruce Guest

    Please would you explain what you mean by "product immaturity"?

    We haven't sold any yet, mainly because we haven't received any stock.
    The ones I tried were at a press/dealer event.

    But we have quite a few orders with deposits, and out first batch is
    already sold out. I haven't taken any orders personally, but the
    staff tell me that the buyers seem to be mainly p+s or superzoom users
    trading up, with a high proportion of women ordering the J1.

    We only have a few orders for the V1 which is IMHO obscenely
    expensive. On the other hand, I didn't order many. My order was
    split about 85% J1, 15% V1. All are kits with the 10-30mm lens. The
    J1 comes in a variety of colours.
    Bruce, Oct 11, 2011
  17. Simply that CSCs are relatively new, and compared to P&S or DSLR they
    still have some way to evolve. That's what I was thinking. Like
    computers, when something is still evolving, older models are depreciated
    Thanks, about as I expected. It will be interesting to revisit this in a
    few months time - perhaps when there is more competition. Although
    whether any competition will have the same small-sized sensor is something
    I doubt. Maybe Canon?

    David J Taylor, Oct 11, 2011
  18. RichA

    Whisky-dave Guest

    How did yuo get your hands on that, according to Apple it's only
    availble for pre-order
    and availble in store from 14th oct.
    Whisky-dave, Oct 11, 2011
  19. RichA

    John A. Guest

    Oh, well, you really can't go by images from a test unit.
    John A., Oct 11, 2011
  20. RichA

    bucky3 Guest

    What do you think will be the mature (not initial release) pricing
    then? I was hoping for $500 because you can get a Canon XS with the
    18-55mm kit lens for $484 on amazon right now. So for a mirrorless
    system with less parts and smaller package, but with a lens with a
    little more telephoto reach, I was thinking it should be about the
    same price.
    bucky3, Oct 11, 2011
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