Warner Goes Blu-Ray Exclusive, biggest payoff yet

Discussion in 'DVD Video' started by caliman.john, Jan 4, 2008.

  1. What problems?
     
    Gary Morrison, Jan 5, 2008
    #41
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  2. caliman.john

    Tarkus Guest

    Precisely my point. Less uncertainty means more consumers, which will
    lead to lower prices. One only has to look at the history of VHS, CD
    and DVD formats. Once people became confident in the stability of those
    formats, demand went up, and prices came down due to competition and
    manufacturing costs.
     
    Tarkus, Jan 5, 2008
    #42
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  3. caliman.john

    willbill Guest


    i'll believe it when i see *lower* prices
    for BD *standalone* players

    to paraphrase what a few others have said:
    "the companies go where the money is at"

    i personally find it hard to believe that
    this move by Warner is "where the money is at"

    if anything, it is an especially dumb move
    by Warner

    tune in again, 24 months, for an update

    till then, i have no plans for buying any
    BD hi-def stuff. maybe CHDA, if and when
    it shows up here (USA), but NOT BD

    i also can't help but wonder if Warner
    will really also shitcan Europe?


    bill
     
    willbill, Jan 5, 2008
    #43
  4. caliman.john

    willbill Guest


    <smiling>

    you really don't know?

    i mean, google shows 1,340 n/g posts
    by you

    i only looked at the 1st couple of pages,
    but a lot of it is various video related
    newsgroups. :)

    me? i'm new to this

    from my long computer experience
    (IBM mainframe, UNIX, and PC networking)
    this looks like a repeat of the PC s/w copy
    protection wars that were largely fought thru
    the 80's and early 90's

    the one's that focused on copy protection are
    now 99+% dead

    Gates had/has a brain on this, but it is clear
    to me that Warner does not

    bill
     
    willbill, Jan 5, 2008
    #44
  5. I guess you don't have one...

    Extremely slow load times by all but 2 of the current players. Mostly
    caused by BD using BD-Java and then not making HW good enough to run it
    fast enough.

    Constant firmware upgrades. Almost everytime a new blockbuster comes
    out.

    An uncertain spec. Profile 1.0, the original, is still the most
    dominant and all of the current 1.0 boxes cannot be upgraded at all.

    That's just off the top of my head.

    If it wasn't for the PS3 and the Panasonic BD-30, you could say all the
    rest are worse than the $29 DVD players from China and be right.
     
    Lloyd Parsons, Jan 5, 2008
    #45
  6. As Bill Hunt put it in the Digital Bits:
    ---
    http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwocentsa148.html#itsover
    Warner could have done one of three things: Go Blu-ray exclusive, go
    HD-DVD exclusive, or stay neutral. It's apparent from their statement
    this morning that Warner knows as well as we do that this format war is
    confusing consumers and hurting the chances for high-def packaged media
    in the long run. While early adopters online have been happily
    back-biting each other these past two years, most folks elsewhere on
    planet Earth have just issued a collective yawn. Meanwhile, those
    non-early adopter consumers who are actually interested in high-def
    discs have sat on the sidelines waiting for the axe to fall on one of
    these formats. So for Warner, staying neutral just wasn't an option
    anymore. The question then becomes, if you're going to make a change in
    strategy, you want to make one that's going to impart genuine forward
    momentum on the situation. Warner going HD-DVD exclusive would have
    effectively created a 50/50 split in Hollywood studio support for these
    formats, resulting in an even bigger stalemate than already exists, and
    probably closing the door completely on either of these formats ever
    gaining widespread acceptance. On the other hand, Warner going Blu-ray
    only makes that studio split 70/30. It effectively gives Blu-ray
    exclusive access to 70% of Hollywood studio content. And that's not only
    a game changer, it's a game ender.
    ---

    And interesting to see that HD's only biggest counterattack so far is to
    try and scrape up any last remaining Sony-is-evil sentiment from last
    year to hope to play the "They musta been bribed!" card--Seeing from
    firsthand evidence how much animosity the public has against...a format
    that's been bribed.
    The one fault of trying to "drag your opponent down to your own level"
    is that it only reminds observers of just what level that is...And
    somehow, I don't think there's much future in the PR counter-strategy of
    "Yeah, wouldn't it be something if *they'd* had as much public
    embarrassments as WE'VE had!" 9_9

    Derek Janssen
     
    Derek Janssen, Jan 5, 2008
    #46
  7. caliman.john

    steveo Guest

    There was never any uncertainty on CD and DVD. The issue was HOW LONG the
    transition would take. Since the price for the players came down but
    slowly, it took quite a number of years. Now that there will likely be only
    one option (i.e. Blu-ray), there will be a more traditional adoption
    pattern: a slow decrease in player prices complemented by a slow increase in
    adopters. It was the need to be chosen as the 'one' format that drove
    prices down between HD DVD and Blu Ray, but now that that has been mostly
    resolved, there is no incentive to continue the radical downward trend
    pricing has had. In fact, there is every likelihood that prices for players
    (except the PS3) will INcrease, as there will be the forthcoming 1.1 and 2.0
    players coming out. New features (to Blu, anyways) demand higher prices,
    from the manufacturers' POV.

    Additionally, people who adopted HD DVD will not likely re-buy all their
    disks, though the may buy Blu-ray players and other movies. Some HD DVDers
    may opt out and utilize existing (and future) digital distribution avenues
    and rent. So, the more avid portion of the early adopters will not be
    helping Blu all that much.

    Sure, some people will now hop on the HDM bandwagon now that Blu is all but
    guaranteed the win, but there are still the vast majority of people who
    didn't opt in because even HD DVD was priced too high at just less than
    $200. Since the Blu manufacturers will not be dramatically dropping prices,
    these people will still not join in.

    The Blu manufacturers will not drop prices for a couple of reasons:
    1) the whole reason Blu had so much manufacturer support was because they
    felt they would be able to charge a lot and thus make a good margin on the
    boxes for a number of years. They would be able to charge a lot for a
    variety of licensing and technical reasons that would keep the cheapo
    companies that make the $25 DVD players you see in the grocery stores out of
    the market.
    2) now that they are secure in their position, they will want to make good
    their business plan (see point 1), which they weren't able to before.
    3) new players will be coming out periodically (1.1, 2.0, ???), which will
    keep prices high.
    4) they have no reason to decrease prices since their is no competing
    format.
    5) none of the manufacturers currently making Blu players is a discount
    player - they are all mid to high range. Thus, they will not feel the need
    to compete against each other is this market. Do you see Pioneer,
    Panasonic, and Sony having a price war with their HDTVs? It is only
    Oliviea, Westinghouse, and their ilk that constantly drop prices and drive
    the market price down, and there are no similar companies in the Blu
    hardware business.

    So, in other words, Warner has killed widespread HDM adoption with their
    choice to go exclusive to Blu. At the very least, they have delayed its
    market adoption and ascendance by many years. In fact, HDM may end up the
    LaserDisc of this generation, eventually being supplanted by some other
    technology like digital transmission, disposable/single use SSD, or some
    yet-to-be-used innovation.

    steveo
     
    steveo, Jan 5, 2008
    #47
  8. caliman.john

    steveo Guest

    I don't know, a $500M to $600M payout wouldn't sound bad to me if I were a
    stockholder.

    It is unfortunate that Tosh couldn't match, or couldn't convince/bribe FOX.

    steveo
     
    steveo, Jan 5, 2008
    #48
  9. caliman.john

    Bogdan Macri Guest

    So much for the Blu-Beta theory...

    Europe will take the news very well, as most other people do.

    --


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Bogdan Macri - Photography & Consulting

    bogdan dot macri at geemail dot com
     
    Bogdan Macri, Jan 5, 2008
    #49
  10. caliman.john

    Will Guest

    most people I know don't care about HD anything. They are fine with $10
    DVD's. They come over and see my stuff and have a hard time seeing the
    difference. $200-$700 for a player and $30 movies? $1500+ TV..forget it they
    say and laugh their asses off..
     
    Will, Jan 5, 2008
    #50
  11. caliman.john

    Will Guest

    Bill Hunt Took a payoff, he's a well known shill for Sony for a long time.
     
    Will, Jan 6, 2008
    #51
  12. Being unable to bribe a company for your product is not the same as not
    being able to CONVINCE a company for your product:
    Being unable to bribe one will have you sent out the door, being unable
    to convince one will have you *kicked* out the door. :)

    Derek Janssen
     
    Derek Janssen, Jan 6, 2008
    #52
  13. caliman.john

    steveo Guest

    That makes no sense. Observing and discussing what happened is not a
    "counterattack." Unfortunately, there really isn't a counterattack that the
    HD DVD group could make that would be effective except getting a Blu studio
    to go red, and that doesn't seem very likely at this point.

    Most people are not arguing that is was "evil," just that Sony and Co were
    able to come up with more.

    Why would it "evil" to pay for exclusive support? This happens everyday in
    advertising (celebrities don't endorse one comapny and its direct
    competitor), video game creation (MGS for PS3 only, Halo for XB360 only),
    soda choice (Pizza Hut Pepsi only), and in innumerable other instances. It
    gives companies competitive advantage, and is necessary to differentiate the
    competitors and create added value (i.e. profit).
    The _denials_ around the Paramount deal were dumb, yes, but even stupider
    was the supposed outrage, if it was really even more than just a few Blu
    fanbois bitching ad naseum.

    steveo
     
    steveo, Jan 6, 2008
    #53
  14. caliman.john

    steveo Guest

    I used "bribed" in a loose sense. I meant 'offer an amount for exclusivity
    that would exceed the negative fiscal consequences of choosing the opposite
    side's offer or doing nothing.'

    Sorry I was lazy and confusing.

    steveo
     
    steveo, Jan 6, 2008
    #54
  15. caliman.john

    Tarkus Guest

    Precisely why more competition among manufacturers will be good for the
    consumer. You don't think these problems will be ironed out with more
    manufacturers going after the BD dollar? Competition leads to better
    quality and lower prices.
     
    Tarkus, Jan 6, 2008
    #55
  16. caliman.john

    Tarkus Guest

    Bingo! Excellent analysis. HD on disc was likely dead in the water if
    Warner went any other way. This gives HD on disc a real chance.
    Consumers no longer have to worry about buying into a potential obsolete
    format.
    You mean like they did with Paramount?
     
    Tarkus, Jan 6, 2008
    #56
  17. caliman.john

    Tarkus Guest

    Instead of taking a shot at him personally, what exactly did you have a
    problem with his statements?
     
    Tarkus, Jan 6, 2008
    #57
  18. The competition that was good for the consumer was the phony war. The
    prices of both BD and HDDVD would never have gotten as low as they have
    if BD had been the only one. Or have you forgotten Sony's very vocal
    indication that profits and prices weren't going to be anything like DVD?

    Now we'll see some improvements and price reductions, but at a far
    slower pace than if the war kept going for a bit longer.

    I've got both HDDVD and BD players so I really don't give a damn which
    one ended up, just wanted it delayed some more. I most likely won't buy
    many (maybe none) more HDDVD discs.
     
    Lloyd Parsons, Jan 6, 2008
    #58
  19. caliman.john

    Mark A Guest

    That really makes no sense. Assuming that BD wins out, you will have the
    same number of hardware manufacturers competing with each other, including
    Toshiba to drive prices down. Admittedly, BD will always cost a bit more
    than HDDVD because of its technical design, but if you look at the way
    computers, flat panel TV's and even regular DVD players have declined in
    price over the last 5 years, one can expect similar declines in BD player
    prices.

    This may not help the early adopters much, but companies like WB are looking
    at the long term view with the bulk of consumers who are not going to
    purchase BD or HDDVD in mass any time soon anyway.
     
    Mark A, Jan 6, 2008
    #59
  20. caliman.john

    T.B. Guest

    "Keith" babbled:
    Do you have a whole shopping list of big, bad corporations you harbor
    irrational pathalogical hatred for?

    T.B.
     
    T.B., Jan 6, 2008
    #60
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