The DVD's Final Hour? Long Live...HD-DVD or Blu-Ray?

Discussion in 'DVD Video' started by Allan, Jul 11, 2005.

  1. Allan

    Allan Guest

    The DVD's Final Hour? Long Live...HD-DVD or Blu-Ray?

    Besides the technical aspects and the users, the most important
    referee in the battle of the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray formats are the
    Hollywood producers. It's up to them to choose which type of format
    will be used for launching the future movies.

    And seeing that the DVD is no longer an appealing option compared to
    the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, the movie industry must make a choice. Some
    have already clarified their position, and it's quite obvious that
    Sony Studios is counting on Blu-Ray, and so does Disney, the two
    companies accounting for 39 percents of the DVD market.

    HD-DVD has just a small advantage, its supporters, Warner, Universal
    and Paramount having a market share of 43%. The only ones left are the
    companies controlling the remaining 18% and which haven’t yet joined
    any of the opposing groups

    To roll out a title in both types of formats
    would generate production expenses that would practically cancel the
    profits obtained from a movie. The unified format solution would have
    been the ideal one for the movie studios, but after the latest
    developments of the talks between Sony and Toshiba and especially
    after Microsoft's announcement that the new Xbox 360 gaming console
    will offer HD-DVD support, a compromise is not likely to be attained.

    Thus, the people from Hollywood are placed in the position of taking a
    decision likely to be vital for their future profits, especially for
    the ones which haven’t decided yet on which format to choose. As for
    the ones which have already chosen to back either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD,
    all that they can do now is wait and see whether they’'e made the
    right decision or not.

    Seeing that the HD-DVD players will probably be launched towards the
    end of the year, if Sony doesn’t come up with a solid offer for
    Blu-Ray we might witness a grand finale in which the favorite looses
    the last battle.

    "Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game
    because they almost always turn out to be -- or to be indistinguishable from
    -- self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
    - Neil Stephenson, _Cryptonomicon_
    Allan, Jul 11, 2005
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  2. The universal nature of DVD makes it a very appealing option. It's all
    very cute for techies to compare pixel counts, but John Q. Public has just
    recently figured out how to hook up his DVD player and is still
    complaining about those damn black bars in the picture. Bringing out an
    incompatible format now is really stupid.
    Kimba W. Lion, Jul 11, 2005
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  3. Allan

    Brent Geery Guest

    They want to kill DVD so they can again get control over the
    encryption. DVDs are wide open, and they don't like that at all.
    The HD version will have encryption that won't be so easily
    bypassed this time.
    Brent Geery, Jul 12, 2005
  4. Allan

    Bill Turner Guest


    Adding to the above, I don't hear John Q. Public clamoring for a new
    and improved format. DVD is pretty darn good already. If Hollywood
    wants to make more money, they should make better films.
    Bill Turner, Jul 12, 2005
  5. Allan

    Black Locust Guest

    Well said. All of this HD shit is so incredibly stupid. So they're going
    to tell the Joe Six Pack who just bought his very first DVD player last
    month; "Oh sorry, that kind of DVD is already obsolete. You must now buy
    one of these fancy new HD-DVD or Blu-Ray players(you have to choose
    which one, so choose wisely) oh, and you'll need a Plasma television as
    well, otherwise these "high definition" DVDs won't really be high
    definition at all. Fear not, this will only set you back a measily 3000
    bucks! Sorry you wasted money on that DVD player and that copy of the
    Extended Edition of Lord of the Rings." Give me a break. The tech geeks
    who make a 100k a year and already have super expensive home theatre
    systems are going to be the only people clamouring for two new(and
    incompatible) formats and whether they want to admit it or not, they
    only make up a measily 10 to 15 percent of the market. The remaining
    80%, which is John Q. Public, are going to give a rats about these discs
    and completely ignore them. They'll happily keep on renting and buying
    regular DVDs, thus forcing all of the movie studios to continue
    manufacturing regular DVDs for many years to come. Hell, the format war
    alone could last 5 or more years. IIRC, the format war between Betamax
    and VHS lasted a good 7 years or so. DVDs final hour? Keep dreaming
    "high definition" fanboys.
    Black Locust, Jul 12, 2005
  6. Allan

    Mr. Moe Guest

    Are you telling me that my entire collection of DVDs won't be any good
    in these new players?
    Mr. Moe, Jul 12, 2005
  7. From :
    "The transition this time is not going to be as compelling as the
    transition from VHS to DVD," said Jim Taylor, DVD technology chief for
    Sonic Solution, which is developing authoring tools for both HD DVD and
    Blu-ray. While the leap to high-def is impressive, Taylor said, "It's not
    the same as going to a whole new format, as you did with DVD."

    So here's a guy whose job depends on the new formats saying that it's not
    going to be all that compelling. So... should we expect market success on
    the level of ED Beta? Hi8? S-VHS?

    The major difference between this situation and the analog formats is that
    the studios want the new formats. As Brent said, we have too much control
    with the current DVD format. They must control everything.
    Kimba W. Lion, Jul 12, 2005
  8. Allan

    manitou Guest

    Many have speculated that if there is a format war, the winner will be
    whichever has the more effective copyright encription.

    manitou, Jul 12, 2005
  9. Allan

    Jordan Guest

    It doesn't have to be that way though... look at the gaming systems.

    The first one to be cracked, the PS2, is the market leader. The second
    one to be cracked, the Xbox, is #2.

    The only one that's doing poorly is the machine that hasn't been
    cracked (Gamecube.)

    - Jordan
    Jordan, Jul 13, 2005
  10. Allan

    Black Locust Guest

    The ironic thing is, ANY form of copy protection will eventually be
    cracked and Hollywood needs to realize this. I honestly hope the
    encryption is defeated on both HD formats shortly after the discs hit
    store shelves. That way, maybe the studios will just abandon the discs
    entirely and in return I won't have to blow $2000 of my hard earned
    money on a bunch of overpriced hardware. I've said it before and I'll
    say it again; I'm still very happy the current DVD standard and have no
    desire to abandon it anytime soon. Until the day I purchase a 50" plasma
    television arrives, 'High Definition DVD' is nothing but a pipe dream in
    my house.
    Black Locust, Jul 13, 2005
  11. Allan

    Brent Geery Guest

    Why do you think that? The only reason the encryption on DVD was
    broken was because we were handed the decryption keys. If that
    screw-up had not happened, DVDs would still be secure today.

    DVD also had no way of renewing the codes if a break in security
    did happen, so is takes a format change to renew the encryption.

    With HD-DVD, they can implement different systems to make sure
    the security is renewable of there is a future break.
    Brent Geery, Jul 13, 2005
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