Price of PCs as Vista nears?

Discussion in 'Computer Information' started by - Bobb -, Jul 11, 2006.

  1. - Bobb -

    - Bobb - Guest

    I'm in the market for a replacement laptop and I'm thinking that as
    release date gets closer ( especially around winter holiday time) that
    XP PC's will be VERY low in price to clear the shelves for Vista PC's .
    Come the Vista release, those pc's are boat anchors for retailers:
    especially Dell with their Intel only platform. I know they only build
    to order, but they ( and others) need to be selling SOMETHING for those
    last few months. So they'll have deals and others will match -
    esecially
    on NON Vista capable PCs, and that Nov/Dec will see some super deals
    for
    folks that DON'T need Vista. I can't imagine that someone that DOES
    want
    Vista is going to buy a PC in November and then wait for Vista to hit
    the store shelves ( will it be there in January ? February?) and THEN
    pay $200 for it, bring it home, try to get drivers, then format his
    drive (that he has used for 2 months) and start the install of Vista,
    his apps etc. It would/will be a disaster ( and void the warranty ?) SO
    they'll be a time when it will be tough to sell a PC with XP. I know
    the manufacturers COULD just take them back to clear the shelves, but I
    think that some buyers will buy the older technology at a good
    discount.
    I think especially the 32 bit boxes will be very cheap and Pc's that
    are
    NOT Vista capable. So, to bring it back to my reason for this ... I'm
    looking for a deal to get the higher requirements -video, 1gb of
    memory,
    etc included and most notebooks DON'T currently have that unless
    ordered from factory. Do you think I should wait and maybe get a beefier
    notebook offer- to make it Vista capable-even though I'd just use XP ?
    Your thoughts - will we see great deals before/after Thanksgiving this
    year ? on only low-end 32 bit PC's ? Or across the entire line ?

    Bobb
     
    - Bobb -, Jul 11, 2006
    #1
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  2. Well, your justifications are pretty wide-ranging, but they bring up a
    couple of points:

    1) PC prices will always fall, no matter what. Buy the machine when
    you need it, and don't worry about how much less it's going to be next
    month.

    2) Many people will let someone else be the pioneers. I steered my
    clients away from XP until SP2 was released, and anyone who values
    stability over fancy new features ("Oooh, animated icons, wow!") will
    probably do the same. Retailers aren't stupid, they'll allow XP and
    Vista to be options for something like a year, as they did with the
    2K->XP transition.

    3) While there might be performance issues, and tweaks thereof, many
    of the laptops sold today will work just fine with Vista.

    4) Dell is moving towards AMD, so the "Intel-Only" argument is
    probably a red herring.

    5) Many consumers don't know an XP from a Vista from a frog, they'll
    go to the store and buy whatever the salesman can talk them into.

    6) I suspect that 32/64 bit is also a rathole, laptops seem to be
    going the multi-core route for better performance rather than more
    bits.
     
    William P.N. Smith, Jul 11, 2006
    #2
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  3. Not following your point, here?

    In fact most PCs made within the last five years with an 800MHz or higher
    CPU, 512Mb of RAM and a Direct X 9 capable graphics adaptor will be Vista
    'capable'. However, to take advantage of its advanced or 'Premium'
    facilities the minimum recommended spec is a 1GHz or faster processor, 1Gb
    of RAM, a graphics card with 128Mb of memory plus a DVD-ROM drive, more than
    15Gb of free hard disc space and an Internet connection.
     
    Boscoe Pertwee, Jul 11, 2006
    #3
  4. The major problem with your hypothesis is that from what I can tell,
    virtually all PCs now being sold will run Vista.

    In February, I bought a Toshiba A105-S2712 that only has chipset video
    [Intel graphics accelerator 900] and 512 megabytes of [shared] memory.
    By simply adding another 512 megabyte module, the microsoft Vista
    advisor says it will run Vista WITH aero.

    On Saturday, Dell had a one-day deal consisting of a B130 with a Pentium
    M, DVD burner and a gigabyte of memory for $499. I was looking at this
    for someone else and the Vista question came up. The Dell web site says
    it will run Vista if it has at least 768 megabytes of memory, but that
    it won't run Aero. However, I think that Dell is saying it won't run
    Aero when it really will: It has the same chipset and video (Intel
    graphics accelerator 900) as my Toshiba, so with 768 megabytes or more
    of memory, it would still have the required 512 megabytes of system
    memory after allowing 128 megabytes of shared memory for the video (and
    the Intel graphics accelerator 900 meets the other requirements, such as
    pixel shader 2, 128MB of video memory (which can be "shared" memory), etc.).

    Now that's kind of baseline, remember this is low-end chipset video with
    shared memory. If that meets the Vista requirements (and that's Vista
    WITH Aero), and if those systems are available for as low as $499, I
    think your expectation of even lower prices may be disappointed.

    Of course these systems are coming, right now, with XP installed. What
    you will probably see in the fall is PCs coming with XP installed and an
    offer of a "free upgrade to Vista" after Vista ships next year (e.g.
    they will send you a Vista upgrade CD). Actually, in my view, that's
    the best of both worlds because you will be getting BOTH XP and Vista.
    In fact, my plans are to put "dual installs" (XP and Vista) on most of
    my machines, since I know I have some older hardware and software that
    probably won't be Vista compatible.

    However there are deals out there: with carefule shopping it's possible
    to get a laptop with an Intel Pentium M / Core Solo CPU (e.g. not a
    Celeron) and a DVD burner for $500 to $600. And Vista or not, the
    period from Thanksgiving thru Christmas is always the best time of the
    year to buy a new laptop, and always offers some of the best deals
    available (the two other good times are memorial day weekend (graduation
    gifts for seniors going to college) and July and August (pre-school).
    And indeed there were some great deals memorial day weekend, and there
    are some good deals right now (check out the $699 Toshiba A105
    configuration offered on the back page of this weeks's Best Buy flyer,
    or the deals that Dell is offering this week with it's
    -different-deal-every-day "10 days of deals" special). The deals are
    out there if you look for them.

    [I'm really curious as to why the Dell web site would describa a system
    that seems Vista and Aero capable as not being so]
     
    Barry Watzman, Jul 11, 2006
    #4
  5. Running Vista is easy. The hard[er] part (not all that hard, but
    harder) is being able to run the Aero interface. This requires 128MB of
    VIDEO memory (it can be shared memory, but that bumps the total memory
    requirement up to 768MB of memory) and hardware support for DirectX 9
    (of which "pixel shader 2" usually becomes the real issue).

    Aero isn't mandatory. If the system has an 800MHz CPU and 512 megs of
    system memory, but doesn't meet the video requirements for Aero, Vista
    will simply run with Aero turned off. But in the minds of most people,
    I suspect that "Vista capable" will come to mean "{Vista with Aero}
    capable".
     
    Barry Watzman, Jul 11, 2006
    #5
  6. - Bobb -

    J. Clarke Guest

    Actually they're going both, it's just that Intel was late to the party with
    a 64-bit laptop chip and AMD was late to the party with a dual-core laptop
    chip, and so far AMD still doesn't have a completely defined solution
    equivalent to "Centrino".
     
    J. Clarke, Jul 12, 2006
    #6
  7. - Bobb -

    timeOday Guest

    It'll be very interesting to see whether Microsoft can drum up any
    enthusiasm for Vista. Among business users, I can't imagine there will
    be any sudden migration towards Vista, since there really is no need.
    But among home users, many people just want to make sure to get the
    "latest and greatest" for fear of obsolescense. But given the great
    difficulty and long delays Microsoft has had in releasing Vista, I think
    there are likely to be a lot of bugs initially.
     
    timeOday, Jul 14, 2006
    #7
  8. - Bobb -

    atec77 Guest

    Honestly I feel most user wont bother with vista for some time , it has
    advantages if the versions floating about are anything to go by.
     
    atec77, Jul 14, 2006
    #8
  9. - Bobb -

    atec77 Guest

    make that few advantages from the versions floating about atm .
    (oops)
    _
     
    atec77, Jul 14, 2006
    #9
  10. Are you sure? More than a few...

    A system-wide search facility does away with the rigid hierarchical filing
    system of current versions of Windows and users will be able to organise
    data and files using 'virtual' folders. Vista will also be the first outing
    for 'Live' icons, which displays the contents of a file or folder in icon
    form. There will be a new document and print management technology called
    Metro. This works in a similar manner to Adobe's Portable Document Format
    (pdf), enabling documents to retain formatting and layout when opened or
    printed by Vista-compatible applications. Metro files can also be instantly
    compressed, encrypted and digitally watermarked.

    Visa PCs will seamlessly communicate and synchronise with a wide range of
    devices, including other computers over cabled and wireless networks, PDAs,
    portable and tablet PCs, cellphones and newer types.


    In addition to extra measures to defeat viruses, malware, phishing and
    hackers Vista PCs will encrypt the entire contents of the hard disc drive so
    that even if the PC is stolen the data stored on it should remain safe. A
    facility called User Account Protection (UAP) reduces
    the scope for users to tinker with the system and extra Administrator
    passwords will be needed before significant changes can be made to the way a
    Vista PC is configured.
     
    Boscoe Pertwee, Jul 14, 2006
    #10
  11. - Bobb -

    atec77 Guest

    Just how much power does a typing program or a small database need ?
    Vista will force more hardware silly-ness when most users can get by on
    a low level machine or run 'nix for their purposes.
     
    atec77, Jul 14, 2006
    #11
  12. It's a moot point. Once Vista is out, XP will be discontinued, all new
    PCs will come with Vista, and within a year there will be reason to
    upgrade. How many people are still using Win9x, or even 2000? Granted,
    in absolute numbers, millions, but as a percentage, relatively few.
     
    Barry Watzman, Jul 14, 2006
    #12
  13. Microsoft's introduction of Vista onto 64-bit machines will surely become
    the norm for most users in the near future? That's Microsoft's aim, anyway.
     
    Boscoe Pertwee, Jul 14, 2006
    #13
  14. - Bobb -

    J. Clarke Guest

    It's the 21st century and "most users" run more than a "typing program or a
    small database". One of Vista's strengths is multimedia support--it rolls
    in MCE and makes the features available in a retail-boxed product that can
    attach to and be managed under the domain model. That alone is going to
    get sales IMO. Another is legacy support--it rolls in Virtual PC and gains
    a huge measure of backward compatibility, not to mention the security
    advantages of doing Internet access in a virtual machine sandbox.

    Just to pick two areas in which there are improvements.
     
    J. Clarke, Jul 14, 2006
    #14
  15. - Bobb -

    - Bobb - Guest

    John,

    My thoughts re: "One of Vista's strengths is multimedia support":
    I know a lot of "average users" and NONE -- has a clue about
    Multimedia - other than unloading camera pictures onto PC in a folder
    and watching movie clips online. None know ... how to make movies,etc.
    They read mail, take pictures, use the internet etc. I agree that there
    is GREAT potential ( honestly I've been waiting for MCE to "catch on" ),
    but my "casual user" friends, go to "the computer store" when their old
    PC dies. Period. Virtual PC - what's that ? Domain ? - couldn't care
    less. (And business IT is gonna reimage with Xp Pro until SP1 or SP2 is
    out) So after the techies do the buying, I think the rush is over. I
    hope otherwise, but if MS is expecting "average users" to be the raison
    d'etre for Vista - that's a big bet. I've provided feedback at microsoft
    site stating just that: they need an online demo to SHOW potential
    buyers 'what's it gonna do for me" in my home. Aero windows may look
    cool, but it is not gonna cause an "average user" to part with $800+ ?
    and toss a one / two year old PC ? Maybe if it's 3-4-5 years old, but
    they would have bought one ANYWAY ( as in XP).

    Bobb
     
    - Bobb -, Jul 14, 2006
    #15
  16. Well, your average users are different to mine. XP - in my circle - will be
    unable to cope with the demands put on it by the on-going convergence
    between PCs and audio and video home entertainment technologies and the
    specific needs of the new generation of electronic gizmos. And although
    the initial surge of interest has died down there is still a high demand for
    Vista Beta 2 download by presumably, "Joe Public".
     
    Boscoe Pertwee, Jul 15, 2006
    #16
  17. - Bobb -

    - Bobb - Guest

    Boscoe,

    My point is just that ! " Joe Public" is NOT a Vista Beta tester.

    " Joe Public" has a Pc to get on the internet, read email, maybe for
    music (itunes etc), to do his taxes and maybe uses quicken or money for
    finances - that's it. Stop the next person you see at a mall and ask
    him/her if they feel a need to upgrade their Pc next week - I'd bet that
    the answer is no. I'm not arguing that there aren't tech savvy folks
    out who WILL use the new features, but unless it's shown to "Joe
    Public", Joe will never know. I still have friends/family that use AOL
    dialup !! An average MS Office user at work might use some of the
    features, but corporations aren't going to spend big bucks migrating /
    supporting add-on device drivers etc. I've been there - they'll come out
    with a supported config and that's it. Unless you're an exec, IT won't
    care if your new Palm phone camera/phone/mp3 player can't use all of its
    capabilities. So we're back to consumers , who I don't think will " see
    the need" to upgrade until their current PC dies/becomes a dog or the
    REASON to upgrade is shown to them. It wasn't with XP or MCE and I don't
    think it will be with Vista either.When Win98 Pc's died, users bought
    new Pc's - with XP - because it was there. In my humble opinion, that's
    what will happen with Vista.
     
    - Bobb -, Jul 15, 2006
    #17
  18. You make some valid points, Bobb. Certainly, users that only use their
    computer for e-mail and to surf the net will find little incentive to
    upgrade to Vista. But the difference here is that people were afraid to
    upgrade to XP in the early days because many things wouldn't work.
    However, Vista's Setup Devices and New Device Manager, should install any
    missing drivers for your video and audio adaptors and any other hardware
    devices not recognised by Vista. But as they say, that's another story!!
     
    Boscoe Pertwee, Jul 15, 2006
    #18
  19. - Bobb -

    - Bobb - Guest

    I would hope so, but that's not how it's going for me - especially in
    the x64 edition. I did get my sound card and my WinTV card. to work in
    x32 version but it took some doing - nothing automated about it. BUt
    since most initial sales will be new PC's HOPEFULLY hw companies will
    cooperate to get drivers for their old cards but I don't think they'll
    spend any significant time/effort on it. They'll just come out with a
    new "supported" card with proper drivers to generate some revenue and
    we'll have outdated hw cards.

    Bobb
     
    - Bobb -, Jul 19, 2006
    #19
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