Price of PCs as Vista nears?

I'm in the market for a replacement laptop and I'm thinking that as
release date gets closer ( especially around winter holiday time) that
XP PC's will be VERY low in price to clear the shelves for Vista PC's .
Come the Vista release, those pc's are boat anchors for retailers:
especially Dell with their Intel only platform. I know they only build
to order, but they ( and others) need to be selling SOMETHING for those
last few months. So they'll have deals and others will match -
esecially
on NON Vista capable PCs, and that Nov/Dec will see some super deals
for
folks that DON'T need Vista. I can't imagine that someone that DOES
want
Vista is going to buy a PC in November and then wait for Vista to hit
the store shelves ( will it be there in January ? February?) and THEN
pay $200 for it, bring it home, try to get drivers, then format his
drive (that he has used for 2 months) and start the install of Vista,
his apps etc. It would/will be a disaster ( and void the warranty ?) SO
they'll be a time when it will be tough to sell a PC with XP. I know
the manufacturers COULD just take them back to clear the shelves, but I
think that some buyers will buy the older technology at a good
discount.
I think especially the 32 bit boxes will be very cheap and Pc's that
are
NOT Vista capable. So, to bring it back to my reason for this ... I'm
looking for a deal to get the higher requirements -video, 1gb of
memory,
etc included and most notebooks DON'T currently have that unless
ordered from factory. Do you think I should wait and maybe get a beefier
notebook offer- to make it Vista capable-even though I'd just use XP ?
Your thoughts - will we see great deals before/after Thanksgiving this
year ? on only low-end 32 bit PC's ? Or across the entire line ?

Bobb

 

Well, your justifications are pretty wide-ranging, but they bring up a
couple of points:

1) PC prices will always fall, no matter what. Buy the machine when
you need it, and don't worry about how much less it's going to be next
month.

2) Many people will let someone else be the pioneers. I steered my
clients away from XP until SP2 was released, and anyone who values
stability over fancy new features ("Oooh, animated icons, wow!") will
probably do the same. Retailers aren't stupid, they'll allow XP and
Vista to be options for something like a year, as they did with the
2K->XP transition.

3) While there might be performance issues, and tweaks thereof, many
of the laptops sold today will work just fine with Vista.

4) Dell is moving towards AMD, so the "Intel-Only" argument is
probably a red herring.

5) Many consumers don't know an XP from a Vista from a frog, they'll
go to the store and buy whatever the salesman can talk them into.

6) I suspect that 32/64 bit is also a rathole, laptops seem to be
going the multi-core route for better performance rather than more
bits.

 

Not following your point, here?

In fact most PCs made within the last five years with an 800MHz or higher
CPU, 512Mb of RAM and a Direct X 9 capable graphics adaptor will be Vista
'capable'. However, to take advantage of its advanced or 'Premium'
facilities the minimum recommended spec is a 1GHz or faster processor, 1Gb
of RAM, a graphics card with 128Mb of memory plus a DVD-ROM drive, more than
15Gb of free hard disc space and an Internet connection.

 

The major problem with your hypothesis is that from what I can tell,
virtually all PCs now being sold will run Vista.

In February, I bought a Toshiba A105-S2712 that only has chipset video
[Intel graphics accelerator 900] and 512 megabytes of [shared] memory.
By simply adding another 512 megabyte module, the microsoft Vista
advisor says it will run Vista WITH aero.

On Saturday, Dell had a one-day deal consisting of a B130 with a Pentium
M, DVD burner and a gigabyte of memory for $499. I was looking at this
for someone else and the Vista question came up. The Dell web site says
it will run Vista if it has at least 768 megabytes of memory, but that
it won't run Aero. However, I think that Dell is saying it won't run
Aero when it really will: It has the same chipset and video (Intel
graphics accelerator 900) as my Toshiba, so with 768 megabytes or more
of memory, it would still have the required 512 megabytes of system
memory after allowing 128 megabytes of shared memory for the video (and
the Intel graphics accelerator 900 meets the other requirements, such as
pixel shader 2, 128MB of video memory (which can be "shared" memory), etc.).

Now that's kind of baseline, remember this is low-end chipset video with
shared memory. If that meets the Vista requirements (and that's Vista
WITH Aero), and if those systems are available for as low as $499, I
think your expectation of even lower prices may be disappointed.

Of course these systems are coming, right now, with XP installed. What
you will probably see in the fall is PCs coming with XP installed and an
offer of a "free upgrade to Vista" after Vista ships next year (e.g.
they will send you a Vista upgrade CD). Actually, in my view, that's
the best of both worlds because you will be getting BOTH XP and Vista.
In fact, my plans are to put "dual installs" (XP and Vista) on most of
my machines, since I know I have some older hardware and software that
probably won't be Vista compatible.

However there are deals out there: with carefule shopping it's possible
to get a laptop with an Intel Pentium M / Core Solo CPU (e.g. not a
Celeron) and a DVD burner for $500 to $600. And Vista or not, the
period from Thanksgiving thru Christmas is always the best time of the
year to buy a new laptop, and always offers some of the best deals
available (the two other good times are memorial day weekend (graduation
gifts for seniors going to college) and July and August (pre-school).
And indeed there were some great deals memorial day weekend, and there
are some good deals right now (check out the $699 Toshiba A105
configuration offered on the back page of this weeks's Best Buy flyer,
or the deals that Dell is offering this week with it's
-different-deal-every-day "10 days of deals" special). The deals are
out there if you look for them.

[I'm really curious as to why the Dell web site would describa a system
that seems Vista and Aero capable as not being so]

 

Running Vista is easy. The hard[er] part (not all that hard, but
harder) is being able to run the Aero interface. This requires 128MB of
VIDEO memory (it can be shared memory, but that bumps the total memory
requirement up to 768MB of memory) and hardware support for DirectX 9
(of which "pixel shader 2" usually becomes the real issue).

Aero isn't mandatory. If the system has an 800MHz CPU and 512 megs of
system memory, but doesn't meet the video requirements for Aero, Vista
will simply run with Aero turned off. But in the minds of most people,
I suspect that "Vista capable" will come to mean "{Vista with Aero}
capable".

 

Actually they're going both, it's just that Intel was late to the party with
a 64-bit laptop chip and AMD was late to the party with a dual-core laptop
chip, and so far AMD still doesn't have a completely defined solution
equivalent to "Centrino".

 

It'll be very interesting to see whether Microsoft can drum up any
enthusiasm for Vista. Among business users, I can't imagine there will
be any sudden migration towards Vista, since there really is no need.
But among home users, many people just want to make sure to get the
"latest and greatest" for fear of obsolescense. But given the great
difficulty and long delays Microsoft has had in releasing Vista, I think
there are likely to be a lot of bugs initially.

 

Honestly I feel most user wont bother with vista for some time , it has
advantages if the versions floating about are anything to go by.

 

make that few advantages from the versions floating about atm .
(oops)
_

 

Are you sure? More than a few...

A system-wide search facility does away with the rigid hierarchical filing
system of current versions of Windows and users will be able to organise
data and files using 'virtual' folders. Vista will also be the first outing
for 'Live' icons, which displays the contents of a file or folder in icon
form. There will be a new document and print management technology called
Metro. This works in a similar manner to Adobe's Portable Document Format
(pdf), enabling documents to retain formatting and layout when opened or
printed by Vista-compatible applications. Metro files can also be instantly
compressed, encrypted and digitally watermarked.

Visa PCs will seamlessly communicate and synchronise with a wide range of
devices, including other computers over cabled and wireless networks, PDAs,
portable and tablet PCs, cellphones and newer types.


In addition to extra measures to defeat viruses, malware, phishing and
hackers Vista PCs will encrypt the entire contents of the hard disc drive so
that even if the PC is stolen the data stored on it should remain safe. A
facility called User Account Protection (UAP) reduces
the scope for users to tinker with the system and extra Administrator
passwords will be needed before significant changes can be made to the way a
Vista PC is configured.

 

Just how much power does a typing program or a small database need ?
Vista will force more hardware silly-ness when most users can get by on
a low level machine or run 'nix for their purposes.

 

It's a moot point. Once Vista is out, XP will be discontinued, all new
PCs will come with Vista, and within a year there will be reason to
upgrade. How many people are still using Win9x, or even 2000? Granted,
in absolute numbers, millions, but as a percentage, relatively few.

 

Microsoft's introduction of Vista onto 64-bit machines will surely become
the norm for most users in the near future? That's Microsoft's aim, anyway.

 

It's the 21st century and "most users" run more than a "typing program or a
small database". One of Vista's strengths is multimedia support--it rolls
in MCE and makes the features available in a retail-boxed product that can
attach to and be managed under the domain model. That alone is going to
get sales IMO. Another is legacy support--it rolls in Virtual PC and gains
a huge measure of backward compatibility, not to mention the security
advantages of doing Internet access in a virtual machine sandbox.

Just to pick two areas in which there are improvements.

 

John,

My thoughts re: "One of Vista's strengths is multimedia support":
I know a lot of "average users" and NONE -- has a clue about
Multimedia - other than unloading camera pictures onto PC in a folder
and watching movie clips online. None know ... how to make movies,etc.
They read mail, take pictures, use the internet etc. I agree that there
is GREAT potential ( honestly I've been waiting for MCE to "catch on" ),
but my "casual user" friends, go to "the computer store" when their old
PC dies. Period. Virtual PC - what's that ? Domain ? - couldn't care
less. (And business IT is gonna reimage with Xp Pro until SP1 or SP2 is
out) So after the techies do the buying, I think the rush is over. I
hope otherwise, but if MS is expecting "average users" to be the raison
d'etre for Vista - that's a big bet. I've provided feedback at microsoft
site stating just that: they need an online demo to SHOW potential
buyers 'what's it gonna do for me" in my home. Aero windows may look
cool, but it is not gonna cause an "average user" to part with $800+ ?
and toss a one / two year old PC ? Maybe if it's 3-4-5 years old, but
they would have bought one ANYWAY ( as in XP).

Bobb

 

Well, your average users are different to mine. XP - in my circle - will be
unable to cope with the demands put on it by the on-going convergence
between PCs and audio and video home entertainment technologies and the
specific needs of the new generation of electronic gizmos. And although
the initial surge of interest has died down there is still a high demand for
Vista Beta 2 download by presumably, "Joe Public".

 

Boscoe,

My point is just that ! " Joe Public" is NOT a Vista Beta tester.

" Joe Public" has a Pc to get on the internet, read email, maybe for
music (itunes etc), to do his taxes and maybe uses quicken or money for
finances - that's it. Stop the next person you see at a mall and ask
him/her if they feel a need to upgrade their Pc next week - I'd bet that
the answer is no. I'm not arguing that there aren't tech savvy folks
out who WILL use the new features, but unless it's shown to "Joe
Public", Joe will never know. I still have friends/family that use AOL
dialup !! An average MS Office user at work might use some of the
features, but corporations aren't going to spend big bucks migrating /
supporting add-on device drivers etc. I've been there - they'll come out
with a supported config and that's it. Unless you're an exec, IT won't
care if your new Palm phone camera/phone/mp3 player can't use all of its
capabilities. So we're back to consumers , who I don't think will " see
the need" to upgrade until their current PC dies/becomes a dog or the
REASON to upgrade is shown to them. It wasn't with XP or MCE and I don't
think it will be with Vista either.When Win98 Pc's died, users bought
new Pc's - with XP - because it was there. In my humble opinion, that's
what will happen with Vista.

 

You make some valid points, Bobb. Certainly, users that only use their
computer for e-mail and to surf the net will find little incentive to
upgrade to Vista. But the difference here is that people were afraid to
upgrade to XP in the early days because many things wouldn't work.
However, Vista's Setup Devices and New Device Manager, should install any
missing drivers for your video and audio adaptors and any other hardware
devices not recognised by Vista. But as they say, that's another story!!

 

I would hope so, but that's not how it's going for me - especially in
the x64 edition. I did get my sound card and my WinTV card. to work in
x32 version but it took some doing - nothing automated about it. BUt
since most initial sales will be new PC's HOPEFULLY hw companies will
cooperate to get drivers for their old cards but I don't think they'll
spend any significant time/effort on it. They'll just come out with a
new "supported" card with proper drivers to generate some revenue and
we'll have outdated hw cards.

Bobb