my chances at the KY Derby...cross finger

Discussion in 'Computer Support' started by ellis_jay, May 5, 2007.

  1. ellis_jay

    ellis_jay Guest

    $1 dollar superfecta box
    dominican
    storm in may
    imawildandcrazyguy
    circular quay

    1$ tri wheel
    dominican wps with
    storm in may
    imawildandcrazyguy
    circular quay
    zanjero

    5$ ex box
    dominican
    storm in may
    imawildandcrazyguy

    25$ across dominican

    25$ place box
    storm in may
    tiago


    That's my bets........

    These are chosen on the basis of 1 and 1/8th mile past performances. Not
    all had those conditions, so some tweaking had to go into the data. On the
    normal curve model, the perp line is between HARD SPUN and TIAGO. With
    Tiago the first animal on the plus side of the top of the bell and Hard Spun
    first out on the negative side. Both spots are a good place to be often
    times.

    The graph would rank them as follows in descending order (i.e., acceleration
    decreases):

    Dominican
    storm in may
    imawildandcraztguy
    circular quay
    zanjero
    liquidity
    curlin
    teuflesberg
    nobiz like shobiz
    bwana bull
    cowtown cat
    tiago
    _______________top of curve line
    hard spun
    great hunter
    scat daddy
    sedgefield
    street sense
    sam p.
    any given saturday
    stormello

    Note the extremes of the tail. Dominican and stormello. Ideally, with all
    things being equal, and they seldom are, Dominican ranks tops while at the
    negative side Stormello ranks last.

    Note that clustered anround the center of the bell curve are cowtown cat,
    tiago, hard spun, and great hunter.

    Note that often winners come from the cluster of the curve.

    Note that often improving horse move on the curve from the negative side and
    cross into the positve field.
    Its a crap shoot at best.

    Some players-and analysts- and not necessarily horse players, will bet-or
    cite- a particulat cluster for their options and hedgings.
    Some players will just play the rankings and all wish for the best. I am
    pretty much playing the rankings and hoping the data-with luck- will hold.

    Note that often the top pick on this kind of chart is an anomaly and lots of
    times (because there are not that many Einsteins) should be thrown out. In
    that case one would pick the second spot.

    Note that often the winner will come from the cluster at the top of the
    bell.
    With the forementioned approach, and the top of the bell approach I decided
    to hedge with the 25$ place box. See above. Tiago and storm in may.

    I did some looky looky at pedigree, and while I did not do a complet and
    thorough search, I did like these as best of breed:

    in no particular order:

    storm in may
    imawildandcrazyguy
    zanjero
    liquidity
    cowtown cat
    hard spun

    Note also in the bell curve just wheree the favorites sit on the curve and
    just who is around them. Then try to explain the difference in odds.

    --
    When people are engaged in something they are not proud of, they do not
    welcome witnesses.
    In fact, they come to believe the witness causes the trouble.
    ___John Steinbeck

    Ellis_Jay
     
    ellis_jay, May 5, 2007
    #1
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  2. ellis_jay

    Pennywise Guest

    "Street Sense roared from next-to-last in a 20-horse field to win the
    Kentucky Derby" would of been a good race, but looking below you help
    pay out the wins :}
     
    Pennywise, May 6, 2007
    #2
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  3. On 2007-05-05, in 24hoursupport.helpdesk, ellis_jay waxed eloquently:
    snip
    Hope you didn't bet too much....
     
    The Old Sourdough, May 6, 2007
    #3

  4. I had $20 on Oscar De La Hoya, bummer. I wanted to see him knock that
    loudmouth scumbag out.
     
    \Fat Tony\ D'Amico, May 6, 2007
    #4
  5. hahaha
     
    \Fat Tony\ D'Amico, May 6, 2007
    #5
  6. ellis_jay

    Frosty Guest


    Oh.
    Silly me.
    When I say "KY Derby" I thought of something else entirely.
     
    Frosty, May 6, 2007
    #6
  7. ellis_jay

    ellis_jay Guest

    OUCH!!

    --
    When people are engaged in something they are not proud of, they do
    not welcome witnesses. In fact, they come to believe the witness causes
    the trouble. ___John Steinbeck

    Ellis_Jay
     
    ellis_jay, May 6, 2007
    #7
  8. ellis_jay

    ellis_jay Guest

    I never play the fav's. Load up on one or two races a card and hope. One
    thing about the ponies or the puppies, just about the time you think you
    know the animals that's when you find out that you don't.

    Order of finish:

    7 Street Sense 11.80 6.40 4.60
    8 Hard Spun 9.80 7.00
    2 Curlin 5.60

    Imawildandcrazyguy
    Sedgefield
    Circular Quay
    Tiago
    Any Given Saturday
    Sam P.
    Nobiz Like Shobiz
    Dominican
    Zanjero
    Great Hunter
    Liquidity
    Bwana Bull
    Storm in May
    Teuflesberg
    Scat Daddy
    Stormello
    Cowtown Cat

    $2 Exacta (7-8) Paid $101.80
    $2 Trifecta (7-8-2) Paid $440.00
    $2 Superfecta (7-8-2-5) Paid $29,046.40



    --
    --

    When people are engaged in something they are not proud of, they do
    not welcome witnesses. In fact, they come to believe the witness causes
    the trouble. ___John Steinbeck

    Ellis_Jay
     
    ellis_jay, May 6, 2007
    #8
  9. ellis_jay

    ellis_jay Guest

    I still have the farm.......lol

    --
    When people are engaged in something they are not proud of, they do
    not welcome witnesses. In fact, they come to believe the witness causes
    the trouble. ___John Steinbeck

    Ellis_Jay
     
    ellis_jay, May 6, 2007
    #9
  10. ellis_jay

    ellis_jay Guest

    Oscar won the decision but the powers gave it away to the
    Floyd.............even his father said so. He pounded away and his land
    count was reported falsely. Fixed fight.no doubt.

    --
    When people are engaged in something they are not proud of, they do
    not welcome witnesses. In fact, they come to believe the witness causes
    the trouble. ___John Steinbeck

    Ellis_Jay
     
    ellis_jay, May 6, 2007
    #10
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