Linux will have 20% of desktop market share by....omigod, now?!?

Discussion in 'NZ Computing' started by impossible, Apr 9, 2008.

  1. impossible

    impossible Guest

    Remember the last Golden Age of Fanboy Optimism?

    14 August 2003:

    "One of the world's largest IT companies is declaring that the Linux desktop
    will capture 20% of the market for desktop computers in large enterprises
    within 5 years. Siemens Business Systems, the $6 billion global IT
    consulting and outsourcing company, has conducted extensive testing with
    real-world, non-technical workers and is declaring that Linux has matured as
    a desktop and will quickly vault to the #2 most-installed OS in the world.
    Senior program manager Duncan McNutt, who has overseen Siemens's testing of
    Linux desktops with users and administrators in enterprise settings,
    believes that Linux will grow quickly as a desktop OS because it can deliver
    equal productivity at significantly lower costs than Windows in very large
    enterprise environments -- installations of 4,000 to 40,000 desktops."

    http://www.linux.com/articles/30873

    Ok, so this never quite worked out -- Linux remains short on share in the
    enterprise market by 19.39% (give or take). But at least people were
    thinking big back then. Now, it's all about a race to the bottom of the wEee
    hardware pile, where the advocate community hopes against hope that
    Microsoft can't be bothered going. That's pretty sad.
     
    impossible, Apr 9, 2008
    #1
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  2. impossible

    impossible Guest

    Nah, the article came from linux.com. Thankfully, they're honest enough to
    not have burned all their archives -- otherwise we'd never be able to put
    the wEee fantasies of your mates into perspective.
     
    impossible, Apr 9, 2008
    #2
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  3. What are you going to do after June, when Microsoft stops selling XP, then?
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, Apr 9, 2008
    #3
  4. impossible

    impossible Guest

    Judging by the choices that businesses have made over the last 5 years, I
    really do think that the question of Linux's cost-effectivenes on the
    desktop has been asked and answered to the satisfaction of almost everyone.
    Technically, yes, there's no reason why it couldn't be otherwise -- but
    maybe it's high time open-source developers stopped playing the victim card
    vis-a-vis Microsft and started flat-out developing better products that gave
    buyers a compelling reason to make different choices.
    Linux has the richest IT company in the world -- IBM -- squarely behind it.
    Not to mention the most potent viral marketing apparatus the business world
    has ever seen. It's failure on the desktop has nothing to do with being
    out-gunned and everything to do with being out-developed. Now, either
    there's an inherent problem with the free software business model that
    inhibits serious innovation, or the people responsible for leading the
    various projects just aren't trying hard enough. I don't know. But stop
    blaming cutomers for turning to the proprietary vendors time and again to
    deliver what they need.
    These markets are all potentially lucrative. But no one has yet put together
    the winning hardware/software combination, which is why so many customers
    are continually experimenting with what's on offer. That's another opening
    for Linux developers that will be squandered if the whole strategy becomes
    one of trying to low-ball Microsoft rather than out-develop them.
     
    impossible, Apr 9, 2008
    #4
  5. impossible

    EMB Guest

    Not to mention the number of mature vertical market applications that
    won't run under anything except Windows.
     
    EMB, Apr 9, 2008
    #5
  6. *cough* Dimdows Genuine Disadvantage server "outage" *cough* ...
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, Apr 9, 2008
    #6
  7. impossible

    J Brockley Guest

    I've always been fairly ambivalent re OS and when asked to put together a
    cheap PC for someone's Grandparents I thought Linux. Right price and ideal
    for simple email and browsing needs.
    And despite input from Linux detractors like D'Olivero I decided to give it
    a go.

    All I can say its a long time since I've sworn so much. As you can perhaps
    guess given the target I was aiming for a dial up connection was the
    selected connection method.
    I had enough forethought to realise a winmodem was out and spent some time
    to find a real one.
    Next I started with a Ubantu 7.04 and it all went well until I went to set
    up the modem. Worked out how setup the modem but couldn't get it to work and
    checks on google didn't seem to help.
    Next tried Fedora 8 its later so must be better. I don't know what I did the
    first couple of times but I needed to unmount a tty OK?, no Back or Cancel
    just ever repeating OK?
    Third time lucky, why I don't know but I blame myself though not sure why.
    With a bit of google got modem installed and working. Of course its bleeding
    obvious that s0 is com port 1 and you have to have a minimum initialization
    string of ATZ everybody knows that.
    Next was how to cause it to dial up. Didn't take too long, a thing called
    Modem Lights, great we're away now. Installed and away we go, not!. "pppon
    not found"
    Back to google but can't find or get working items referred to.
    In the end unfortunately lifes too short and XP was in fact cheaper maybe
    not $ wise but timewise. XP up and running, AVG installed in under an hour,
    done and dusted.

    Unfortunately at the end of the day I can sorta see why it sits at under 1%
    uptake even if it is superior under the hood.
     
    J Brockley, Apr 9, 2008
    #7
  8. impossible

    Will Spencer Guest

    I've used Vista 64bit edition from day one. By far the best, most stable
    and safest OS I have ever used.

    -ws
     
    Will Spencer, Apr 9, 2008
    #8
  9. impossible

    impossible Guest

    That's adorable. I have an aunt who does quilts -- she sells some and
    donates others to the Sallies.
    No, apparently it's a whole ideological church kind of thing.

    http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/osrc/article.php/3733286

    Did you know that you could get a good telling off from the GNU/Linux police
    for installing propietary video drivers on your machine? Even if those
    drivers were considered by one and all to be technically superior?
     
    impossible, Apr 10, 2008
    #9
  10. impossible

    impossible Guest

    It's a Windows program, I'm afraid.

    http://www.quiltbus.com/electric-quilt.htm
    Well, good. So then there's one person we know about in that category.
     
    impossible, Apr 10, 2008
    #10
  11. impossible

    Will Spencer Guest

    Too bad you're in the vast minority.
    Open source is a con. I don't want to see code as much as I don't what to
    see my car engine. It just works, retard!

    -ws
     
    Will Spencer, Apr 10, 2008
    #11
  12. impossible

    Will Spencer Guest

    The problem is most people find it worse to use and worse to configure and
    become less productive using it. It's a con basically. That's why it's gone
    no where in the desktop market after all these years (or is it decades
    now?)

    -ws
     
    Will Spencer, Apr 10, 2008
    #12
  13. Lawrence D'Oliveiro, Apr 10, 2008
    #13
  14. No, it's Windows that suffers from rot and gets worse and worse over time.
    Linux doesn't.
    Ah, you haven't been keeping up with the latest developments, then. Heard of
    the Asus Eee? It's expected to sell 3-5 million units this year alone, most
    of them with Linux, not Windows, preinstalled. And competitors are
    scrambling to launch their own products into this space
    <http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2008/04/09/dell_readies_eee_rival/>
    <http://eupeople.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=487>
    <http://eeepc.itrunsonlinux.com/the-news/1-latest-news/54-jisus-a-new-eee-pc-clone>.
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, Apr 10, 2008
    #14
  15. It's already achieved a majority share in the growing budget ultralight
    market. Where Microsoft is struggling to avoid sliding completely into
    irrelevance.
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, Apr 10, 2008
    #15
  16. impossible

    Mutlley Guest

    Got any 64bit apps to run on it??
     
    Mutlley, Apr 10, 2008
    #16
  17. How do you handle sites using Adobe Flash?
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, Apr 11, 2008
    #17
  18. impossible

    impossible Guest

    Really?! So Linux's flat-line growth trend over the past 5 years tells you
    nothing?
    Bottom-feeding has never been good for any business. What makes you think
    this is such a great strategy for Linux?
     
    impossible, Apr 11, 2008
    #18
  19. impossible

    impossible Guest

    Not necessarily, no. But doggedly refusing to take a consiistently dismal
    past performance record into consideration is just silly. What are you
    holding out for? A miracle?
    Flatline in desktops absolutely -- well, some there are some estimates that
    suggest desktop Linux use actually peaked in 1998. As for server space,
    linux replaceents for unix are just about exhausted. Now where's your growth
    going to come from? RedHat's value has been dropping for 2 years. Novell has
    to partner with Microsoft to remain competitive. But, fine, let's just
    ignore all of that -- everything's just fine in LinuxLand.
    Linux is a free download with no restrictions whatsoever and STILL no one
    wants to use it.
    As we know from the fight over OOXML, IBM and Microsoft are very competitive
    in that arena.
    Wishful thinking, I'm afraid. The market has spoken.
    You seem to hang all your hopes now for gaining desktop market share on
    pitching Linux to people who cannot afford Windows or OsX. That's what I
    mean by bottom-feeding. How is that a winning strategy?
     
    impossible, Apr 11, 2008
    #19
  20. impossible

    impossible Guest

    No, all those cheap Linux pcs that Walmart couldn't sell are the low end.
    It's a losing strategy.
    Are you trying to credit Linux now with every **hardware** innovation? No
    attempt to market a "Linux-powered" device has ever succeeded. Consumers
    just aren't interested. If it's buried in the firmware, or otherwise
    inconspiciuous -- fine -- but it's certainly not a selling point.
    Only if the products actually sell. Linux on the Eee has not. And neither
    have any of the other cheap linux devices you and larry keep promoting.
     
    impossible, Apr 12, 2008
    #20
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