If Canon announces successor to 20D at PMA, when is shelf expectancy?

Discussion in 'Digital Photography' started by baker1, Jan 10, 2006.

  1. baker1

    baker1 Guest

    Has there been a pattern of when Canon announces a new camera, and it
    actually hitting the shelves? I cannot decide between the D200 and the
    20D. Don't have the coin for the 5D, but do a lot of low light work.
    Have always been Nikon, but am willing to consider Canon because of
    the great reviews and images I see.

    baker1, Jan 10, 2006
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  2. baker1

    Bill Hilton Guest

    baker1 writes ...
    Last couple of times with the consumer models they've had plenty of
    product in the pipeline right away, maybe a few weeks wait if you don't
    get an order in as soon as it's announced but not too bad compared to
    say the 1D Mark II, which was announced in Feb and not available in
    volume until June. Good luck.

    Bill Hilton, Jan 10, 2006
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  3. baker1

    SMS Guest

    It's usually a very short lag time, on the order of weeks, not months.
    They don't want to hurt existing sales by announcing too early. With the
    5D, there was no existing product that it competed against, so they did
    announce it a few months early.
    SMS, Jan 10, 2006
  4. For low-light, the D200 is the wrong choice. You'd be a lot happier with the
    20D. But.

    Get the 350D and spend your money on FF compatible glass (from experience,
    the 300D + 50/1.4 is a _great_ combination for low light). If you don't need
    to buy any glass, then an expensive body seems a _lot_ cheaper (this one's
    from experience too: the only lens I've bought since the 5D has been a used
    55-200). It's quite likely that three years from now, there'll be a Canon FF
    body that's a lot more affordable.

    (Also, the trend in the APS-C area is towards more pixels and worse
    low-light performance, so the next generation of things is likely to be
    Yes, there has been a pattern. Nikon tends to announce _way_ ahead of
    availability, and Canon tends to announce immediately prior to availability.
    With Canon, there are often rumors that turn out to be quite accurate from
    about two weeks before the actual announcement (this one's from experience
    too: I lost a bet with Mark2<g>). But the cameras are often on the shelves
    within two weeks or so of the announcement.

    (Someone who remembers exact dates of things can probably come up with
    counterexamples, but both the 1Ds MKII rumors (well, leaked specs) and 5D
    rumors turned out to be correct.)

    Personally, I think Nikon is more user-friendly. Lots of people don't
    realize that a dSLR that was released 18 months ago is long past its sell-by
    date, and get burned. The Nikonistas have a better view of what's coming

    David J. Littleboy
    Tokyo, Japan
    David J. Littleboy, Jan 11, 2006
  5. baker1

    Father Kodak Guest

    I'm not the OP, but I'm curious as to why you say that.

    The OP didn't say which lenses he already owns. That could be a big
    factor in the relative cost of a D200 vs. a 20D.

    What do you mean by "user friendly." For the past six months, I
    watched the Nikon guys (of which I'm one, for the past 30 or so years
    now!) go into tizzy after tizzy about the upcoming D200. Some people
    even commented that Nikon should be more forthcoming on future
    products. How is Nikon's tightlipped policy user friendly? I would
    say the opposite.
    How much technology change do you expect in 18 months? We're not
    talking Moore's Law here.

    Appropriately priced,there is nothing wrong with an "older model"
    DSLR. And that doesn't make the older model obsolete or useless.
    Unless you're the "gotta have the latest model" kind of guy.

    Why, because of the incessant rumors and the relatively long delays
    between announcement and store availability?

    To switch the topic only slightly, do YOU have any inside poop on the
    rumored Nikon full-frame sensor DSLR?

    domu arrigato gozai masu

    Father Kodak (bowing deeply)
    Father Kodak, Jan 12, 2006
  6. Everything I've seen indicates that the D200 is worse than the 20D in terms
    of high-ISO noise.
    Since Canon doesn't tell people when it's going to release a new model, once
    a model is 12 months old, you never know if it's going to be 2 weeks, 2
    months, or a year until the next model. So users buying the 20D now have the
    problem that they just don't know.

    In this particular case, though, since the OP wants low-light performance,
    my opinion/best guess is that he'd be fine with the 20D, since the follow on
    is likely to be more pixels and worse low-light performance to match the
    Improved AF, much nicer LCD, a few more pixels, and a surprise or two
    (better weather sealing?). Actually, Moore's Law is of some concern here
    because newer cameras tend to have larger buffers for burst shooting.

    I think that improvements will be slowing down, though.
    Agreed. The _only_ thing that I was commenting on was the problem of
    spending serious money and then finding out 3 weeks later that there'll be a
    somewhat better one out long before one has even begun to figure out the
    current camera.
    Because the announcement precedes release by such a long time, you get to
    choose between purchasing now and not getting the improvements or putting up
    with not having a camera for a bit and getting the improvements.
    Nope. I've not even heard those rumors<g>.

    David J. Littleboy
    Tokyo, Japan
    David J. Littleboy, Jan 12, 2006
  7. baker1

    ASAAR Guest

    I agree with most of your points, just not with the bit about
    Moore's Law. Are you talking about memory cell density, speed or
    power consumption? Maybe if you wanted to shoehorn a 10 GB buffer
    in an ultra-compact camera, but even the largest buffers in DSLRs
    are far smaller than that, the DSLRs have much more space to hold
    them, and the buffer memory doesn't have to match the super high
    speed of cache RAM used in CPU chips, so it'll run cooler too.
    ASAAR, Jan 12, 2006
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