how many copies will the stars wars dvd sell in one day? place your bets.

Discussion in 'DVD Video' started by Marty Feldman, Sep 21, 2004.

  1. just to give you a little backround before making the plunge:

    'Passion of the Christ' sells 4.1M DVD copies in one day
    By Anthony Breznican | Associated Press
    Published on Thursday, September 2, 2004
    E-mail this story | Print this page
    LOS ANGELES -- The second coming of Mel Gibson's biblical epic "The
    Passion of the Christ" sold 4.1 million DVD copies by Wednesday after
    only one day in stores.

    While the figure from distributor Fox Home Entertainment is high, it's
    not quite a record breaker.

    "Finding Nemo" holds the No. 1 overall spot for one-day DVD sales with
    about 8 million. For a live-action movie, "Spider-Man" holds the
    one-day record with 7 million.

    [i've always felt that these stars wars movies were in a cultural
    phenomenon of their own, and would break all records...but i dunno,
    that could be my own fanboy bias talking. then again, i can't let an
    animated fish throw doubts into the star wars legacy (or what little
    is left after lucas got through with it). still...given its high
    price (but reasonable per movie), i'm gonna have to say...crap, i
    really don't know. ok, i'm gonna go with 10-15 million with the
    emphasis on 10. :]

    Although "The Passion" fell short of that, Fox Home Entertainment said
    it did inaugurate several secondary industry records.

    In terms of one-day sales, Fox is describing the movie as the
    best-selling R-rated film of all time and best-selling non-English
    language film of all time. Most DVD sales trackers, however, only
    divide rankings between animation and live-action.

    "The Passion," starring Jim Caviezel as Jesus, earned more than $370
    million at the North American box office, making it the year's
    second-most popular movie behind "Shrek 2," which earned $436.7

    Gibson's film was also one of the most controversial movies in years.
    Besides its violent depiction of the crucifixion, some Jewish
    organizations complained it might spark a rise in anti-Semitism by
    blaming ancient Jewish people for killing Christ.

    "The Passion" DVD is on track to sell as well as Hollywood
    blockbusters such as "Spider-Man" and "The Lord of the Rings" movies,
    which topped out between 15 million and 18 million total disc sales,
    said Scott Hettrick, editor in chief of DVD Exclusive magazine.
    Marty Feldman, Sep 21, 2004
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  2. I'm going to go for 11 million myself.
    Brian The Demolition Man Little, Sep 21, 2004
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  3. ok, i'm gonna go with 10-15 million with the
    My guess- 4 million.

    1) I think a lot of gotta-have-it fans will have ordered online; unless those
    orders are counted in with first-day sales, I think this will carve out a large

    2) The price is a little too high for casual purchases. Sure, the retail price
    is great for three movies, but not for a spur-of-the-moment purchase.
    Non-hardcore fans might choose to hold off for a day or two, to do

    3) It's not a huge kid-friendly title. Family-friendly, yes, but it's not the
    flavor-of-the-moment for young'uns, so they won't necessarily be bugging their
    parents to buy it. See: Finding Nemo, Spider-Man.

    Today will be big, but not blockbuster-huge; the most important thing, of
    course, will be if sales remain high over the long term. This is going to be a
    steady-selling catalog title until the next revision is announced;
    first-day/week numbers might not be that great, but overall it'll place nicely
    on all-time sales, I think.

    As an aside, the single line of folks waiting for its release last night at my
    local Wal-Mart was about the same size as the line of people waiting for The
    Sims 2.
    Robert Morgan, Sep 21, 2004
  4. Marty Feldman

    Nick Guest

    The DVDs of the original Star Wars trilogy have broken a UK sales record
    after one day of release.
    Internet retailer Amazon received more than 85,000 pre-orders for The Star
    Wars Trilogy, beating the 50,000 high of Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.

    "Fans have been waiting for this for a long time, so we knew there would be
    a lot of interest," a spokesperson said.

    Supermarket Tesco estimated it would sell 500,000 box sets in the first
    week, beating its Two Towers record.

    Price battle

    Star Wars, made in 1977, The Empire Strikes Back (1980) and The Return of
    the Jedi (1983) have never been legally available on DVD until now, despite
    being some of the most popular movies in cinema history.

    Each film has been digitally remastered and their creator George Lucas
    updated some scenes for the release.

    High demand has led to a price battle between online and high street stores,
    with many retailers disregarding the recommended retail price of £44.99.

    Lucas revived the series in 1999 with The Phantom Menace, the first in a
    prequel trilogy set years before the events in the original Star Wars.

    The second film, Attack of the Clones, followed in 2002, with third prequel
    Revenge of the Sith due in cinemas in May 2005.

    Nick, Sep 21, 2004
  5. People waiting in line for The Sims 2?

    That might be one of the saddest things I've ever heard.

    Stephen Cooke, Sep 21, 2004
  6. Marty Feldman

    Justin Guest

    Stephen Cooke wrote on [Tue, 21 Sep 2004 14:36:09 -0300]:
    Combined with the fact that it was as Wal-Mart... now that's really sad.
    Justin, Sep 21, 2004
  7. QVC in England claimed a first day Star Wars sale of 20 million units, but
    that is probably WAY over - exaggerated.
    andrew.upton4, Sep 21, 2004

  8. turns out your analysis was pitch-perfect correct. your guess of 4
    million was far closer to the estimated 2.5 million than my 10
    million, and reflects a far better understanding of the dvd market.
    (ie. when it comes to the dvd market, listen to robert and don't
    listen to me. :)

    btw, do you work in the industry?

    anyways, check out this piece:

    'Star Wars' DVD seeks the force
    First-day sales of long-awaited trilogy top estimated $100 million but
    fall short of record.
    September 23, 2004: 4:23 PM EDT
    By Krysten Crawford, CNN/Money staff writer

    NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - First-day DVD sales of the long-awaited 'Star
    Wars' trilogy topped an estimated $100 million worldwide, but
    entertainment industry analysts said the multi-disc set was unlikely
    to break records soon.

    Actual sales figures are not yet publicly known. The film's
    distributor, 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, released a statement
    late Wednesday trumpeting $115 million in combined first-day global
    sales of both the 'Star Wars' DVD and the 'Star Wars Battlefront'
    video game, which simultaneously went on sale separately Tuesday.

    A spokesman for 20th Century Fox declined to break down sales figures,
    either by revenue or units sold. A report in Daily Variety estimated
    that 90 percent of the $115 million -- or roughly $103 million -- came
    from DVD sales, mostly in the United States.

    With a discount price of about $42, that would come to just under 2.5
    million copies.

    The current one-day DVD record holder is 'Finding Nemo,' which sold 8
    million copies in its first 24 hours on store shelves. And just a few
    weeks ago, 20th Century Fox openly trumpeted the 4.1 million first-day
    copies sold of 'The Passion of the Christ' DVD, also distributed by
    the News Corp (NWS: down $0.02 to $32.81, Research, Estimates). unit.

    Scott Hettrick, the editor-in-chief of DVD Exclusive, estimated that
    20th Century Fox shipped 4 million copies to retail outlets. He said
    the 'Star Wars' trilogy was unlikely to break one-day or one-week
    sales records for one key reason: price.

    Even factoring in the 40 percent discounts now available on the
    four-disc set, which carries a suggested retail price of $69.98, the
    DVD is far more expensive than 'Finding Nemo' and other typical DVD
    singles, which sell for between $15 and $20.

    Hettrick said the trilogy "will probably end up ranking as one of the
    biggest DVD titles of the year" and might set a dollar record due to
    its higher price. But that's not the same as units sold, he noted.

    Hettrick also noted that comparisons between 'Star Wars' and other DVD
    debuts were difficult to draw because Fox took the unusual step of
    releasing the 'Star Wars' trilogy worldwide. Most distributors
    typically stagger DVD release dates for different markets.

    That said, Hettrick added that 'Star Wars' sales were off to an
    impressive start.

    There's no doubt the 'Star Wars' trilogy will be a brisk moneymaker,
    mostly for 'Star Wars' creator LucasArts, whose five films have reaped
    more than $3.4 billion in worldwide box office ticket sales. A sixth
    'Star Wars' installment -- the third prequel -- is due in theaters
    next May.

    Kristin Schaefer Mariani, a spokeswoman for, declined to
    disclose actual 'Star Wars' DVD sales but said both the wide screen
    and full screen editions, available for $41.99, were holding the No. 1
    and 2 spots on its DVD sales list.

    She said that's the first time in recent memory that both versions of
    the same title were in the top two sales positions. "They have been
    one of the top sellers" ever since they became available for pre-order
    in March, she said.

    While Schaefer Mariani said does not plan to release 'Star
    Wars' DVD figures, her counterparts at's British unit did.
    According to a statement released last week, the 'Star Wars' trilogy
    received 85,000 pre-orders in Britain, more than the 50,000 advance
    orders for the previous record-holder 'The Lord of the Rings: The Two

    The 'Star Wars' DVD is also available in Britain at a 40 percent
    Marty Feldman, Sep 24, 2004
  9. Marty Feldman

    Mark Jones Guest

    To fairly compare this to individual movies, I would suggest you
    multiply the number of sets sold by 3. Then you get a total of
    7.5 million sold. This is very impressive when you consider that
    you have to buy all 3 at one time.
    Mark Jones, Sep 24, 2004
  10. your guess of 4
    2.5 million? That's probably the biggest number of first-day sales for a box
    set, but I thought it'd be even higher. Then again, I wonder if that figure
    includes preorders and online sales. (Or how many sales were lost by the
    widescreen version selling out of the 50/50 widescreen/full-screen mixes the
    big-box retailers ordered.)
    Naah- I just have a host of acquaintances who are Star Wars fans, so I took
    them as a model of the potential first day buyers.
    Robert Morgan, Sep 24, 2004

  11. i know, but i was thinking of sets when i made my guess, as i think we
    all were. then there's the issue of whether one should consider the
    set in its entirety since the stories are so tightly woven, or if
    taken individually, then eg. new hope alone only sold 2.5 mill vs. 8
    mill for finding nemo.

    i think my guess was off for various reasons. first, i love the
    trilogy and i wanted it to break records. second, i think it would've
    broken records years ago when dvd first made inroads. so, i think my
    basic mistake was not grasping how mainstream the dvd market has
    become in a relatively short period of time, and so expecting a cult
    classic to trump a mainstream hit like finding nemo, *in a mainstream
    market*, was incorrect. put another way, if finding nemo was the top
    seller in a niche market, then i think star wars could've easily
    topped it.
    Marty Feldman, Sep 24, 2004
  12. Marty Feldman

    Video Flyer Guest

    Whoah....hold on.....just a doggone minute there..... :)

    Are you suggesting that Star Wars - STAR WARS? - is a CULT film?

    Video Flyer, Sep 24, 2004

  13. i think fox knows the details, but isn't saying much intentionally.
    kinda like the bush admin.
    Marty Feldman, Sep 25, 2004

  14. well, it ain't no finding nemo. lol. when's the last time you heard
    anyone raving about that freaking fish? and it got 8 million and star
    wars...STAR WARS...sold 2.5 mill??? stars wars ain't what it used to
    Marty Feldman, Sep 25, 2004
  15. I'll guarantee you ten years from now hardly anyone will remember
    "Finding Nemo" yet surely enough "Star Wars" will live on. Trust me,
    "Nemo" is just a trendy phase of society right now. Nothing more,
    nothing less.
    Brian The Demolition Man Little, Sep 25, 2004
  16. i don't disagree with that.
    Marty Feldman, Sep 25, 2004
  17. Marty Feldman

    Justin Guest

    Brian The Demolition Man Little wrote on [Sat, 25 Sep 2004 01:14:34 -0500]:
    Yet Toy Story will live on...
    Justin, Sep 27, 2004
  18. Exactly. "Toy Story" not only defined a new era of filmmaking
    (full CGI animated features), but the movie itself is very witty
    and something that we can all relate to. "Nemo" however is very
    predictable and bland. I found myself not caring for the father's
    quest to find his son, I found the sidekick very annoying (the whole
    thing about her memory got old very fast), and honestly the only
    character I even cared for was the laid back sea turtle.

    I'll forgive Pixar however for "Nemo" since every studio at some
    point will do a dud like that. They just better do a sequal to "Bug's
    Life" eventually (my personal favorite Pixar film so far).
    Brian The Demolition Man Little, Sep 30, 2004

  19. well since Pixar's deal with Disney only goes to "Cars" and Disney
    retains the rights to all the Pixar films they distro'd, I doubt Pixar
    will be doing a Bug's Life sequel, but Disney might with another

    grant kinsley, Sep 30, 2004
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