Heads or Tails

If I took a penny and flipped it 100 times and 99 times it came up Heads
what are the chances of it coming up Heads again on the 101st toss?

A: 50%
B: 75%
C: 99%

 

Plato gibbered the following deranged nonsense:

A:50%

 

Just now learning about statistics? It's always 50%, the penny can't
remember what it's done in the past.

 

Only if the penny and the experiment aren't rigged. The real question
should be "what is the probability that the experiment is rigged given
the data?"

Harvey

 

In

99%

 

A:50%. And no, it would never come up heads 99 times in a row either.
Yes, it's theoretically possible, but practically it wouldn't happen.

 

Normally 50% cz lack off memory off penny,

if it came 99 times head up, i would check the other side off penny,
maybe head on both sides....

F.

 

False.

 

Correct. For a penny to come up Heads 99% of the time it has to be
rigged.

The correct answer is C:

I imagine that you Harvey dont work in a cube but have an office with a
window

 

False.

 

False.

 

It came up once in Tails tho You can do the same with modified dice.

 

Which bit? The 50% or the 99 times? And both are true, anyway.

 

Open your mind.

 

If the coin is unbiased, it's 50-50, just like always.

However, the smart money here says the flipping is rigged since the chances
of 99 heads in a row in an unbiased coin is one out of two to the 99th
power...(you do the math)!

X

 

Agreed. Coins have no memory.

 

Since you've ruled out 50% as your correct answer, which it should be, that
leaves two choices.
So the answer to YOUR question is 75% because 99% is impossible given the
conditions.

Technically though, the answer is correctly 50% because there are only 2
sides to the coin.

Besides, the vast majority of coins will undoubtedly land on the "tail" side
more times than not, due to the variance in the weight of each "side".

ya think he bought that one eh?

 

If I took a penny and flipped it 100 times and 99 times it came up Heads

Yes, and don't confuse "mathematical probability" and "likely outcome". The
mathematical probability is 50%, as each event (a coin toss) is a unique
event in its own right, without influence from other events. As other
posters have said, the coin has no memory. It is statistically possible to
have a coin land on tails 99 times in a row. Lunatic and more unlikely than
my scoring tonight with Kylie, but still statistically possible.

However, if you look at the likely outcome, you are introducing
non-mathematical elements into the calculation. I personally wouldn't put
half the kid's college fees on tails, and I doubt if you would either, but
there you go.

 

None of them - it could land on its edge.
It would be very close to but lower than 50% assuming it was an
equally-balanced coin.
After 99 heads I would be tempted to check it wasn't a double header or a
trick coin in some way.
After all, what are the chances of throwing 99 heads in a row with an
even-chance coin?
(very, very low).

 

It just depends how many times you throw it - a 99 run of heads is 100%
certain with an infinite number of throws.