Experts/Polls: Toshiba's HD-DVD dead in the water. Blu-ray will win.

Discussion in 'DVD Video' started by asj, Apr 5, 2006.

  1. asj

    asj Guest

    Research firms (e.g. Forrester Research) note that Blu-ray will most
    likely win in the format war:

    "Blu-ray has several advantages that will help it win the day, Schadler
    said. HD DVD is a one-trick pony for video playback, but Blu-ray is
    also designed for games and computers, he said. Indeed, its inclusion
    in millions of Sony's next-generation video game consoles is a factor.
    And when former HD DVD loyalist Paramount endorsed Blu-ray, it shifted
    the movie studio momentum. Finally, although Blu-ray manufacturing will
    cost a little more initially, it offers more capacity and employs a
    proven technology, Java, for interactive features.",39029473,40057660,00.htm

    Informal Polls show same:

    I have informally talked to people as well. They note Sony lost betamax
    because it did not license it out. In this case, Blu-ray is supported
    by a large number of vendors. This is not just Sony. This is Panasonic,
    and Disney, Warner, Fox, and Sun, and IBM, and.....

    Also, people wondered why they would buy the much smaller Toshiba disc
    when the Blu-ray can hold so much more data.
    asj, Apr 5, 2006
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  2. asj

    Dan G Guest

    News flash: both formats are dead in the water.
    Dan G, Apr 5, 2006
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  3. asj

    Voinin Guest

    Please explain.

    Voinin, Apr 5, 2006
  4. asj

    FDR Guest

    I thought Microsoft is backing HD-DVD.
    FDR, Apr 5, 2006
  5. asj

    Richard Guest

    I have informally talked to people as well. They note Sony lost betamax
    because it did not license it out.

    Sony licensed Beta to Zenith. VHS was licensed to RCA. At the time Sony
    priced its units very high and Zenith was starting its decline as a force in
    the retail market. RCA was a much stronger distributor offering dealer
    incentives, etc. Sony did a poor job promoting Beta's advantages, smaller
    case size designed to fit on a book shelf, standard 720 tapes holding more
    than 120 tapes at Beta II speed, superior mechanical design and superior
    video quality.

    Poor marketing and higher prices when thrown against a far more aggressive
    marketing force that understood our market is what did Beta in. This may not
    be the case with blu-ray.

    Richard, Apr 5, 2006
  6. What do you mean? That all those Zenith, Sanyo, Sears, etc. VCRs were
    unlicensed? That all the major movie studios produced movies in Betamax
    without licensing?
    Totally unimportant to the vast majority of the movie-buying public.
    Kimba W. Lion, Apr 5, 2006
  7. asj

    JLee Guest

    Microsoft is backing HD-DVD but preparing for Blu-ray to win by saying
    it will support Blu-ray through 3rd party vendors. They know the
    writing on the wall.

    I was also expecting Microsoft to win the cellphone wars, but Java
    kicked their butts and now most cellphones run Java.
    JLee, Apr 5, 2006
  8. asj

    JLee Guest

    Yes, but these are pricey players whose initial targets WON'T be the
    mass public. DVD players now can go as low as $35, so both format
    players are way beyond that in price! So the initial target will be
    movie affictionados, and to THOSE people, specs matter a lot, quality
    matters a lot, and geeky additions matter too (and Blu-ray wins all
    that hands down). As prices come down over time (and more movies are
    offered in HD), THEN we'll see mass buyings of these players - by that
    time toshiba will have given up.
    JLee, Apr 5, 2006
  9. One question. Where is it? HD-DVD is here Blue Ray is not.
    Fred C. Dobbs, Apr 5, 2006
  10. asj

    rjn Guest

    asj wrote: >
    I'm still predicting that both will lose. Both are pitching
    DRM-poisioned early-adopter-killer media at what has
    always been a 1% niche market (videophiles).

    Even the tech tabloids have picked up on the suicide:
    The Big Fat High-Def Interview

    Meanwhile, the player/title intros keep slipping out ...
    rjn, Apr 5, 2006
  11. Yes, that is my take too. No way would I spend much money until there are
    tons of movies out there and the blanks cost under 25 cents.
    Bruce Markowitz, Apr 5, 2006
  12. asj

    JLee Guest

    Really? Where's HD-DVD? A separation of a couple months between intros
    won't make any dfference.
    JLee, Apr 5, 2006
  13. asj

    JLee Guest

    When there's this much push from so many industry heavyweights, losing
    is seldom the final result...either Blu-ray or HDDVD will win, it will
    simply be a matter of time. This is not simply 1 or 2 companies pushing
    it - you've got everyone pushing the move to HD.

    I'm one with the blu-ray will win crowd simply because of the greater
    number of studios on that side and the greater capabilities of the
    Blu-ray disc and players/recorders - for that much money, you go with

    And I'm supposed to bow to what Inquirer says?
    JLee, Apr 5, 2006
  14. asj

    RobH Guest

    The people answering polls are a small percentage of the possible buying
    consumers. Don't overestimate the intelligence of the buying public.
    HD-DVD will be cheaper, and the lower class consumer might understand
    the word HD-DVD. I don't know or really care who wins, but the instinct
    is to always go for the cheapest, that's why Wal-Mart does so well.
    RobH, Apr 5, 2006
  15. asj

    Rich Guest

    Get those phone jacks ready, sheep.
    Rich, Apr 5, 2006
  16. asj

    JLee Guest

    This sounds ok, except that at the beginning, the price of BOTH will be
    MUCH higher than the $35 of low end DVD players, AND the target
    customer will be for quality-conscious consumers, NOT the mass public.
    That only comes to play several months to years later, when the price
    of both Blu-ray and HDDVD will be similar due to volume efficiencies.

    Also, there's one difference between Sony and Toshiba - Sony owns 1
    studio and is a big owner in another. Toshiba is not. So you'll always
    have at least two big studios NOT releasing HDDVD discs, no matter what
    the other studios do.
    JLee, Apr 5, 2006
  17. I wouldn't bet on that.

    Initially, of course Sony isn't going to release HD-DVDs. But if
    BluRay loses the battle (as Betamax did), Sony will manufacture media
    and players for the dominant format because it will make them money.
    (Sony makes plenty of VHS players, now don't they? Imagine how little
    they'd make if the only tape players they made were still Betamax.)
    Barry McCockiner, Apr 5, 2006
  18. asj

    JLee Guest

    And I was talking about what? At the time of Betamax, Sony had no clout
    with the studios, but having two big studios NOT releasing for HDDVD
    the first 1 or 2 years will make a big difference in who wins

    Plus, right now, the majority of studios are behind Blu-ray, not HDDVD.

    All in all, it spells bad trouble for HDDVD in the long run, as
    Forrester Research notes.

    And let's not forget people can do a heck lot more with Blu-ray than
    HDDVD (which means it's harder to differentiate HDVD from current

    I fully expect HDDVD to be gone in 2 years as the price differential
    between them collapses.
    JLee, Apr 5, 2006
  19. asj

    Alpha Guest

    There are a number of economic issues here. Blu Ray is stalled because they
    originally promised internet connections for copy protection. Maybe yes,
    maybe no. HD DVD made no such promises, and have fewer MPAA based studios
    to endorse it.

    The first Sony player is $999...the first HD DVD is $499.

    The extra storage is a selling point for non-interlaced 1080 in Blu Ray,
    although multi-layer HD DVD could also handle that (eventually, the first
    player does not give 1080p).

    It is far too early to really know what will happen. PS3 is stalled because
    decisions on copyprotection and manufacturing issues have intervened. It
    seems as though everything Blu Ray depends on PS3. I would not want to take
    a wager on that.
    Alpha, Apr 5, 2006
  20. asj

    manitou910 Guest

    I agree that both sides will lose the current battle. While the market
    realities have few parallels to the old VHS/Betamax wars, enough people
    remember this that many will resist taking the leap, aside from a few
    technophile early adopters.

    Blu-ray's higher storage capability is a non-issue for home theatre
    people (the primary market), since both formats have enough room for
    high-quality hi-def movies. Home theatre and the PC market are two
    totally different ones.

    BTW, bonus features likely will not be hi-def for either format.

    The down-rezing, for copyright reasons, will be the kiss of death for
    both. As others noted, this means most HDTV displays acquired more
    than two years ago will not display full resolution from either HD-DVD
    or Blu-ray.

    And ditto, BTW, for anyone with a high-end CRT front projector (still
    considered the best video display format in existence).

    manitou910, Apr 5, 2006
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