digital cameras: what to expect in the (near) future?

Currently digital cameras are revolutionised at a high pace. Therefore I was
thinking of buying a cheapish camera: Canon IXUS 400 (S400). In two years
time I could then upgrade to something top-of-the-notch.

Does this strategy make sense, or are the next generation cameras (in two
years time) only going to be marginally better? In that case I will go for
the Sony DSC-V1 now and not upgrade in the next two years.

Right now I just want to take holiday pics, and extra features on the camera
are nice, but not crucial. I will get the best photos professionally printed
through the likes of www.bonusprint.co.uk to put them in my photo album.

So basically I have two questions:
1) What are digital cameras going to look like in 2 years time;
2) Given my requirements will it make sense to upgrade in 2 years time?

Cheers
Eward

 

Given the pace at which digicams are being revolutionized, you might want to
consider upgrading every year or more. Thats what I did. I used to have an
A40 a year ago and now I have an A70. Sold my A40 on ebay for a good return
price. I bought my A70 for about $150 out of pocket after selling the A40.
They are a good investment if taken well care of.

I would expect digicams to be smaller in the future but not so small that
you can't hold on to them. Some will break with tradition and fit inside the
size of a small pen or even the size and thickness of a credit card. However
the zoom optics on such units will be non-existent. In two years time I
would expect the features to increase as they are now with cell phone mixing
in the digicam technology. You will see lower prices as well due to a better
mass production of circuitry and newer optics.

You can upgrade every two years if you want but just remember that your
camera will be outdated and your resale value will be exponentialy
diminished by that time. My.02

Matt

 

The revolution is over. The next two years will show nowhere near the same
real world improvement that the last two years did. Now a 4mp camera is
readily available at $400 (The S400, and many others), which is a resolution
more than sufficient for most use. And while one can play the upgrade a
year game we used to do with PCs, it's not necessary until the consumer
digitals don't have the big shutter lag.

The OP should just pick a nice model and be happy with it - probably better
to spend on the lower end of the scale. The S400 or S45 would do nicely.

 

No crystal ball here but some things are made fairly certain by reviewing
the last several years. Prices will continue to drop among the consumer
grade cameras. Resolution will continue to increase among the more
expensive cameras. More digital SLRs will be released. Some important
things like autofocus and response time should improve a bit. More
affordable storage media. Printers will improve a bit. Larger image
sensors for high-end cameras. Foveon technology more widely applied
(perhaps). More confusion caused by too many choices. More frustration
caused by models being discontinued.

You can upgrade any time you like. Most people do it when they perceive a
significant increase in capability and performance in a newer camera that
they can afford.

 

1. Well, if things in digital cameras keep up with the steep chart line the
same way as it has been for last few years (and to be honest, I expect that
the digicam market will not just boom but explode in a year time) I'd say
we're all looking at a bright future, pro's and amateurs both. Cheaper and
faster cameras with much better image quality and technology are inevitable.

2. It'll probably make sense to upgrade in a one year time. I am comparing
this to myself - in last 2 years I've gone from a point-n-shoot Olympus c-1
to a professional Canon EOS 10d, with Olympus c-220 and fuji s602 in
between.

 

You can upgrade any time you like. Most people do it when they perceive a

Amen. I plan to keep my camera for maybe another three years. It gives me
fantastic prints and enough megapixels for the type of pictures I take. I
hope it will continue to do just that three years from now. There are and
will be "better" cameras every year, but I won't think on upgrading as long
as I am happy with mine (again, for my type of photography.)

I guess only a major revolution of CCD technology, available at a very
affordable price, would make me upgrade earlier.

Cheers,

-Jorge

 

I'm not sure I agree about that. I read somewhere a couple months ago
about a new CCD technology on the horizon. Unfortunately I don't recall
all the details, but it was a sensor that allowed each pixel to record
all three colors, instead of requiring 3 separate pixels to
independently record RGB.

Incorporating this new sensor would instantly triple the resolution of a
same-size chip. IIRC, they said this would start showing up in high end
professional cameras next summer, and in consumer cameras within a year
or two after that.

Personally, I bought a 10D last month. I expect my next upgrade will
have this new sensor, and be 10-15 MPixel.

 

Hmmm... Fovean again. Sort of works but don't hold your breath for it to
become a heavy weight competitor any time soon.
http://www.dpreview.com/reviews/sigmasd9/

 

Lets see how it compares to computing power, after all we are talking about
chips.
A, 8086>8088>286>386>486>P1>P2>P3>P4 all took place in about 13 years.
The technology is so fast and sophisticated now that ANY thing you buy now
will be superceded by a better model. Just buy what you can afford and take
pictures. That's what you want anyway.

 

You are SO wrong with that statement. Two years in any technology is a HUGE
jump.

 

Consider a PC sold 2 years ago versus one today. The older one does
virtually everything that one needs, and only a small number would need
to replace it. For the majority of people's uses, even an older 500mhz
P3 is adequete.

Two years ago you needed to spend considerable more money to get a
digital camera that would meet a range of needs. Resolution was lower,
CF much more expensive, printing options more limited. Those issues
have been worked out and improvements from here out will be more
incremental. The only reason I upgraded from my nikon 880 was that
I wanted a smaller form factor. Yet the S400 isn't that much different
for the job at hand.

Waiting now for a big jump is technology is silly. It nearly always is,
but especially in a product market that is no longer immature.

 

That would be 23 years (and the 8086->8088 was not a step forward), but
the point is the same.

The 486->P4/XP present is the 13 year span.

 

In 1990, nobody I knew could afford a 386, let alone a 486. I would say
that a typical new computer would be 286 based. XPs are quite affordable.




Philip Homburg

 

Philip Homburg states:

I recall seeing a 386 in a community college graphics class...something on the
order of 10 grand. My SIL's comany spent $10,000 bucks for a 1 gig hard drive
not too much later.

I jumped straight from an 8088 (bought in '88 to complicate matters) to a 486
about 4-5 years later when prices got semi-rational (nearly twice the price of
the 3 gig Dell I've got now, and that 486 had a 32 mb hard drive, 650K RAM, a
5-1/4" floppy and not much else). It does make me curious about what the
difference will be in another 20 or so years. Today's $1700 computers will cost
$300, and a $500 unit will offer 20-30 times what the costly ones today offer.


Charlie Self

"A people that values its privileges above its principles soon loses both."
Dwight D. Eisenhower, Inaugural Address, January 20, 1953

 

8 Mpix Sony chip & 5 Mpix Foveon chip are already on the horizon. The
Sony looks promising, but the Foveon, endorsed only by Sigma - which
does'nt have the knowhow to master noise/color accuracy - yet.

 

Charlie,

Right now there is already much discussion about the $199 PC in the next few
years.

I think the point is that even if there is no "revolutionary" change in
digital cameras over the next 5-10 years - as Jason claims that it has all
been done - there WILL be price reductions on the existing technology,
bringing high end features down to point and shoot land. It would also be
naive to state that sensor technology is mature. Given current sensor
geometries and technologies there is certainly room for improvement by
increasing density, speed and reducing power consumption. And on the user
interface side there is also much room for improvement.

Saying that "Those issues have been worked out and improvements from here
out will be more incremental." and that the digital camera market is "a
product market that is no longer immature." is more than a bit inaccurate.
However, the advice that you should buy what you need when you need it
instead of waiting is sound.

-Jack

 

Some day...until then I'm content knowing that my camera is good enough
to get the job done.

I'm also eagerly awaiting more HD capable camcorders priced in the
consumer realm.

 

The price difference of these two (in UK) is £85 (£435-£350), which
isn't going to get you something "top-of-the-notch" even in two years
time. So you will be spending an extra chunk of money then. How
much will you want to spend? Looking at the £400 price point a year
ago you could have got a Powershot S30, Fuji 4800, Nikon 885, Olympus
C4000Z, Pentax 430, Sony DSC-P5, Sony DSC-S75. Now that money would
get you Powershot S50, Powershot G2, Fuji S602, Minolta F300, Nikon
4300/4500 (halfway between), Olympus C740/C750 (halfway between),
Olympus C50, Pentax 550, Sony DSC-P12. Compare the specs of these two
sets and you see how the market changes in a year. Just looking at
MPixels has gone from 3,4.3,3,4,4,3,3 to 5,4,6,5,4,3.5,5,5 - an
increase of 1.2. Add twice the change on and see where that gets you
in two years time.

Dan