The real reason for the Blu-Ray blip:

Discussion in 'DVD Video' started by Jordan, Feb 13, 2007.

  1. Jordan

    Jordan Guest

    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,251514,00.html

    (some snips)

    "With each console, Sony has bundled a copy of the Blu-ray movie
    "Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby," together with a gift
    certificate for $15 off the purchase of a second Blu-ray movie. ...
    since a consumer must make the choice to buy another disc, the effects
    of the gift certificate would influence the Nielsen numbers."

    "I think it's safe to say that the gift certificate is the reason for
    the sudden spike in Blu-ray disc sales, even if Crawford will not. As
    this USA Today article notes:

    "Most people spend their gift cards in January and February. And
    because retailers can't count gift card sales until the cards are
    redeemed, those sales dollars are pushed out of December into the next
    year. Gift card sales now represent 5% of total holiday sales, so
    those dollars are having a significant impact on retailers' business
    in the months after Christmas. About 40% of card redemptions are made
    in the first week after Christmas. But the rest comes in January or
    early February."

    This seems to be consistent with the curves as indicated by the
    graphs: a dramatic run-up in Blu-ray sales in January, followed by a
    flattening of the curve in late January. The PlayStation3 was launched
    on Nov. 17 in the U.S., about the time the Blu-Ray sales begin to head
    upward."

    "February/March trends will be telling

    If this is true and the gift certificates indicate an aberration,
    rather than a trend, then I would think we would see the Blu-ray
    numbers continue to flatten, followed by a decline, complemented by a
    resurgence in the HD DVD unit share. (The assumption here, of course,
    is that the early adopters sprung for a PS3, and the rest of the world
    is waiting for a price drop.)"
     
    Jordan, Feb 13, 2007
    #1
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