The Future of Compact Flash Cards

Discussion in 'Digital Photography' started by Ellestad, Apr 19, 2006.

  1. Ellestad

    Ellestad Guest

    What do you think will be the future of Compact Flash cards? Near and Far.

    I've heard rumors that there will be some pretty significant price
    reductions by late this year. BU T, at the same time I see local retailers
    clearing out their inventory of Compact Flash due to the change to SD cards
    in the new and smaller consumer market cameras (actually, I see that the
    latest pro cameras now use both Compact Flash and SD). I'm concerned that
    this might mean that before long Compact Flash will become scarce, with
    fewer manufactured, frozen or even higher in price or even soon extinct.
    With the demonstrated short service life of digital cameras I don't believe
    that the existing cameras using Compact Flash will sustain a vigorous market
    for the cards for long.

    Does anyone have any info on this?

    Tim Ellestad
    Ellestad, Apr 19, 2006
    #1
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  2. Ellestad wrote:
    > What do you think will be the future of Compact Flash cards? Near and
    > Far.
    >
    > I've heard rumors that there will be some pretty significant price
    > reductions by late this year. BU T, at the same time I see local
    > retailers clearing out their inventory of Compact Flash due to the
    > change to SD cards in the new and smaller consumer market cameras
    > (actually, I see that the latest pro cameras now use both Compact
    > Flash and SD). I'm concerned that this might mean that before long
    > Compact Flash will become scarce, with fewer manufactured, frozen or
    > even higher in price or even soon extinct. With the demonstrated
    > short service life of digital cameras I don't believe that the
    > existing cameras using Compact Flash will sustain a vigorous market
    > for the cards for long.
    >
    > Does anyone have any info on this?
    >
    > Tim Ellestad


    I doubt if they are about to become scarce in the near future. As for
    the long term or cheaper larger version ?? Who knows.

    --
    Joseph Meehan

    Dia duit
    Joseph Meehan, Apr 19, 2006
    #2
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  3. Ellestad

    Mike Henley Guest

    Joseph Meehan wrote:

    > Ellestad wrote:
    > > What do you think will be the future of Compact Flash cards? Near and
    > > Far.
    > >
    > > I've heard rumors that there will be some pretty significant price
    > > reductions by late this year. BU T, at the same time I see local
    > > retailers clearing out their inventory of Compact Flash due to the
    > > change to SD cards in the new and smaller consumer market cameras
    > > (actually, I see that the latest pro cameras now use both Compact
    > > Flash and SD). I'm concerned that this might mean that before long
    > > Compact Flash will become scarce, with fewer manufactured, frozen or
    > > even higher in price or even soon extinct. With the demonstrated
    > > short service life of digital cameras I don't believe that the
    > > existing cameras using Compact Flash will sustain a vigorous market
    > > for the cards for long.
    > >
    > > Does anyone have any info on this?
    > >
    > > Tim Ellestad

    >
    > I doubt if they are about to become scarce in the near future. As for
    > the long term or cheaper larger version ?? Who knows.
    >
    > --
    > Joseph Meehan
    >
    > Dia duit


    I'm wondering if we'll start seeing a marketting game where they change
    card formats every few years just so you buy new equipment. Film lasted
    for decades. I wonder if marketters will allow cards to last as much.
    Mike Henley, Apr 19, 2006
    #3
  4. Ellestad

    george Guest

    "Ellestad" <> wrote in message
    news:e24dj5$j7h$...
    > What do you think will be the future of Compact Flash cards? Near and Far.
    >
    > I've heard rumors that there will be some pretty significant price
    > reductions by late this year. BU T, at the same time I see local retailers
    > clearing out their inventory of Compact Flash due to the change to SD
    > cards
    > in the new and smaller consumer market cameras (actually, I see that the
    > latest pro cameras now use both Compact Flash and SD). I'm concerned that
    > this might mean that before long Compact Flash will become scarce, with
    > fewer manufactured, frozen or even higher in price or even soon extinct.
    > With the demonstrated short service life of digital cameras I don't
    > believe
    > that the existing cameras using Compact Flash will sustain a vigorous
    > market
    > for the cards for long.
    >
    > Does anyone have any info on this?
    >
    > Tim Ellestad
    >
    >


    Not one professional dslr that I know of uses SD, all use CF. (Nobody can
    even slightly mistake a Nikon D50 for a professional camera and that is the
    only dslr I know of using SD and THAT camera's market it to get people to
    cross over from point and shoot digital cameras...probably all the easier if
    they don't have to buy new memory cards.) BTW, in a professional
    engineering magazine I get I saw an ad from Transcend that had a picture of
    a 16GB CF card...

    George
    george, Apr 19, 2006
    #4
  5. Ellestad

    ASAAR Guest

    On 19 Apr 2006 09:32:42 -0700, Mike Henley wrote:

    >> I doubt if they are about to become scarce in the near future. As for
    >> the long term or cheaper larger version ?? Who knows.
    >>

    >
    > I'm wondering if we'll start seeing a marketting game where they change
    > card formats every few years just so you buy new equipment. Film lasted
    > for decades. I wonder if marketters will allow cards to last as much.


    Newly designed 10 GB zzD cards promise to allow for the
    development of super fast cameras that will rival the frame rate of
    good video equipment. They're extremely small. Too small in fact
    for easy handling by most photographers unless they're handy with
    tweezers, so card (or more appropriately chip) carriers holding 16,
    32 and 64 cards will be used to allow for quick and easy exchanging
    of zzD cards. Though each card only has a single bit data bus,
    using multiples of 16 cards in parallel is what provides the
    extremely high data rates. Interestingly, the form factor of the
    chip carrier will be identical to that of CF cards.

    I apologize for the delay in posting this information. It should
    have gone out several weeks ago.
    ASAAR, Apr 19, 2006
    #5
  6. Ellestad

    Paul Rubin Guest

    "Ellestad" <> writes:
    > What do you think will be the future of Compact Flash cards? Near and Far.
    >
    > I've heard rumors that there will be some pretty significant price
    > reductions by late this year. BU T, at the same time I see local retailers
    > clearing out their inventory of Compact Flash due to the change to SD cards


    I don't think it's a problem. Lots of non-camera equipment uses CF
    and all high end DSLR's still use CF.

    The cost of both CF and SD cards is totally dominated by the cost of
    the flash memory chips inside them, and they're the same chips in both
    types of cards. The price per GB has been falling steadily over the
    years, just like disk drives and DRAM. For about 6 months (late 2005)
    the price decline stopped and the price stayed steady instead of
    falling, because of new demand created by flash music players like the
    iPod Nano. But chip production seems to have caught up now, so prices
    are falling again, currently around $25/GB. Flash memory will
    probably be in the $10/GB range by the end of this year (my guess).

    For most still camera users, this is practically free. I've never
    felt the need for more than 1GB of flash for any still camera I've
    used, though I have a 4GB card in my audio recorder. As card capacity
    gets higher, we'll probably see more full function flash-based
    camcorders, i.e. able to shoot full frame video for hours at a time,
    instead of the silly 15 fps low-res movie clips that current digicams
    generally shoot.
    Paul Rubin, Apr 19, 2006
    #6
  7. "Mike Henley" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    >
    > Joseph Meehan wrote:
    >
    >> Ellestad wrote:
    >> > What do you think will be the future of Compact Flash cards? Near and
    >> > Far.
    >> >
    >> > I've heard rumors that there will be some pretty significant price
    >> > reductions by late this year. BU T, at the same time I see local
    >> > retailers clearing out their inventory of Compact Flash due to the
    >> > change to SD cards in the new and smaller consumer market cameras
    >> > (actually, I see that the latest pro cameras now use both Compact
    >> > Flash and SD). I'm concerned that this might mean that before long
    >> > Compact Flash will become scarce, with fewer manufactured, frozen or
    >> > even higher in price or even soon extinct. With the demonstrated
    >> > short service life of digital cameras I don't believe that the
    >> > existing cameras using Compact Flash will sustain a vigorous market
    >> > for the cards for long.
    >> >
    >> > Does anyone have any info on this?
    >> >
    >> > Tim Ellestad

    >>
    >> I doubt if they are about to become scarce in the near future. As
    >> for
    >> the long term or cheaper larger version ?? Who knows.
    >>
    >> --
    >> Joseph Meehan
    >>
    >> Dia duit

    >
    > I'm wondering if we'll start seeing a marketting game where they change
    > card formats every few years just so you buy new equipment. Film lasted
    > for decades. I wonder if marketters will allow cards to last as much.
    >


    I don't think it is marketing as much as it is changing technology.



    --
    Joseph Meehan

    Dia duit
    Joseph Meehan, Apr 19, 2006
    #7
  8. Ellestad

    Scott W Guest

    Paul Rubin wrote:
    > For most still camera users, this is practically free. I've never
    > felt the need for more than 1GB of flash for any still camera I've
    > used, though I have a 4GB card in my audio recorder. As card capacity
    > gets higher, we'll probably see more full function flash-based
    > camcorders, i.e. able to shoot full frame video for hours at a time,
    > instead of the silly 15 fps low-res movie clips that current digicams
    > generally shoot.


    Hey, my F828 shoots 30 fps at 640 x 480, of course it uses memory like
    you would not believe, 512 MB of memory gives me just a bit over 6
    minutes.

    Scott
    Scott W, Apr 19, 2006
    #8
  9. Ellestad

    Guest

    , Apr 19, 2006
    #9
  10. Ellestad

    Paul Rubin Guest

    "Scott W" <> writes:
    > Hey, my F828 shoots 30 fps at 640 x 480, of course it uses memory like
    > you would not believe, 512 MB of memory gives me just a bit over 6
    > minutes.


    Yeah, I'm thinking something more like an MPEG-2 camcorder like the
    current mini-DVD thingies that get about 1/2 hour on a 1.4 GB
    mini-DVD. One of those with a 16GB flash card would be plenty for
    many purposes.
    Paul Rubin, Apr 19, 2006
    #10
  11. Ellestad

    Scott W Guest

    Paul Rubin wrote:
    > "Scott W" <> writes:
    > > Hey, my F828 shoots 30 fps at 640 x 480, of course it uses memory like
    > > you would not believe, 512 MB of memory gives me just a bit over 6
    > > minutes.

    >
    > Yeah, I'm thinking something more like an MPEG-2 camcorder like the
    > current mini-DVD thingies that get about 1/2 hour on a 1.4 GB
    > mini-DVD. One of those with a 16GB flash card would be plenty for
    > many purposes.

    Should not be that far off, maybe 2-3 years.

    Scott
    Scott W, Apr 19, 2006
    #11
  12. Ellestad

    Guest

    , Apr 19, 2006
    #12
  13. Ellestad

    Jon Combe Guest

    In article <e24dj5$j7h$>, Ellestad wrote:
    > What do you think will be the future of Compact Flash cards? Near and Far.
    >
    > I've heard rumors that there will be some pretty significant price
    > reductions by late this year. BU T, at the same time I see local retailers
    > clearing out their inventory of Compact Flash due to the change to SD cards
    > in the new and smaller consumer market cameras (actually, I see that the
    > latest pro cameras now use both Compact Flash and SD). I'm concerned that
    > this might mean that before long Compact Flash will become scarce, with
    > fewer manufactured, frozen or even higher in price or even soon extinct.
    > With the demonstrated short service life of digital cameras I don't believe
    > that the existing cameras using Compact Flash will sustain a vigorous market
    > for the cards for long.
    >
    > Does anyone have any info on this?
    >


    To be honest I wouldn't worry about it. Each time I have bought a digital
    camera it has used a different card format to the previous one! The first
    camera I got used SmartMedia, the next CompactFlash and the one I have no
    used Xd Cards. Although no camera has been made for about 2 years (as far
    as I know) using SmartMedia it is still easy to get hold of, both in shops
    and online retailers. There will probably be users selling them on ebay
    even if nowhere else for years to come. CompactFlash was always more widely
    used than SmartMedia, and most pro cameras still use it. So I don't see
    CF cards becoming more costly or difficult to obtain for many years to
    come. Even if CF does eventually stop being supported in cameras I'm sure
    there will be plenty of people on ebay wanting to offload their old CF cards!

    Jon.
    Jon Combe, Apr 19, 2006
    #13
  14. Ellestad

    ASAAR Guest

    On Wed, 19 Apr 2006 21:26:41 +0100, Jon Combe wrote:

    > . . . I don't see CF cards becoming more costly or difficult to obtain for
    > many years to come. Even if CF does eventually stop being supported
    > in cameras I'm sure there will be plenty of people on ebay wanting to
    > offload their old CF cards!


    Even if nobody sells their old CF cards on eBay after production
    of CF cards stop, that wouldn't be a problem for owners of cameras
    using CF cards. With CF adapters I've managed to use xD cards in
    several Canon cameras. But eventually most cameras will no longer
    support CF cards, so for many people it may not be too wise to stock
    up on too many large CF cards unless they're also prepared to
    continue using their old cameras for a long, long time . . .
    ASAAR, Apr 19, 2006
    #14
  15. Ellestad

    Rich Guest

    On Tue, 18 Apr 2006 23:17:10 -0500, "Ellestad" <>
    wrote:

    >What do you think will be the future of Compact Flash cards? Near and Far.
    >
    >I've heard rumors that there will be some pretty significant price
    >reductions by late this year. BU T, at the same time I see local retailers
    >clearing out their inventory of Compact Flash due to the change to SD cards
    >in the new and smaller consumer market cameras (actually, I see that the
    >latest pro cameras now use both Compact Flash and SD). I'm concerned that
    >this might mean that before long Compact Flash will become scarce, with
    >fewer manufactured, frozen or even higher in price or even soon extinct.
    >With the demonstrated short service life of digital cameras I don't believe
    >that the existing cameras using Compact Flash will sustain a vigorous market
    >for the cards for long.
    >
    >Does anyone have any info on this?
    >
    >Tim Ellestad
    >


    With SD going the way it is, CF has about as much future as
    microdrives once CFs went beyond 1G.
    Rich, Apr 20, 2006
    #15
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