The far future.

Discussion in 'Digital Photography' started by Ian Stirling, Apr 10, 2004.

  1. Ian Stirling

    Ian Stirling Guest

    What will the camera market look like in 2014?

    Film will presumably be hanging on, but will be seen by many as
    only used by people who won't get with the program.

    Assuming that memory gets ever more dense, you'r probably looking at
    somewhere around 2G-32G being almost free to build into the camera.

    (depending on assumptions on growth of memory capacity)

    Optics won't have changed.

    Processor speed will be very fast, as will DSP.

    The lowest end digital cameras will be 3-4Mp, fixed focus with
    maybe 2G of memory, and no viewfinder.
    Perhaps $10.

    What about the high end?
     
    Ian Stirling, Apr 10, 2004
    #1
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  2. Ian Stirling

    John Bean Guest

    John Bean, Apr 10, 2004
    #2
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  3. Ian Stirling <> wrote:

    >What will the camera market look like in 2014?
    >
    >Film will presumably be hanging on, but will be seen by many as
    >only used by people who won't get with the program.
    >
    >Assuming that memory gets ever more dense, you'r probably looking at
    >somewhere around 2G-32G being almost free to build into the camera.
    >
    >(depending on assumptions on growth of memory capacity)
    >
    >Optics won't have changed.
    >
    >Processor speed will be very fast, as will DSP.
    >
    >The lowest end digital cameras will be 3-4Mp, fixed focus with
    >maybe 2G of memory, and no viewfinder.
    >Perhaps $10.
    >
    >What about the high end?


    Ian,

    quite possible.

    I expect cameras to have lots of automatic image enhancement
    functions, flash red eye removal being only the simplest.

    The difference between still photo cameras and movie cameras
    could disappear.

    Hans-Georg

    --
    No mail, please.
     
    Hans-Georg Michna, Apr 10, 2004
    #3
  4. Ian Stirling

    mark_digital Guest

    "Ian Stirling" <> wrote in message
    news:j0Xdc.28914$9.net...
    :What will the camera market look like in 2014?

    --------
    There will be cameras all over the place. All one will have
    to do is contact security and ask for a pic of them at a
    particular place and time and voilla! they got it. No need
    to spend money (credits maybe?)or waste time with individual
    apparatuses.

    mark_
     
    mark_digital, Apr 10, 2004
    #4
  5. "Ian Stirling" <> wrote in message
    news:j0Xdc.28914$9.net...
    > What will the camera market look like in 2014?


    Barring severe world disastors in the interim, it should look robust!

    > Film will presumably be hanging on, but will be seen by many as
    > only used by people who won't get with the program.


    Film v digital debates will have enjoyed a well deserved death by then.
    Film will be used for special applications just as vacuum tubes are still
    used for special applications now.

    > Assuming that memory gets ever more dense, you'r probably looking at
    > somewhere around 2G-32G being almost free to build into the camera.


    Who knows? Moore's Law has to eventually bump into quantum-mechanical
    limits, but by 2014 a brand new paradigm might exist. Tough call!

    > Optics won't have changed.


    Everything changes. Fluid lenses ... QM optics ... who knows?

    > Processor speed will be very fast, as will DSP.


    DSP will make significant contributions to digital imaging, as it already
    has. Foveon type sensors might be the norm?

    > The lowest end digital cameras will be 3-4Mp, fixed focus with
    > maybe 2G of memory, and no viewfinder.
    > Perhaps $10.


    Throw-away digitals? Why not?

    > What about the high end?


    Film will have long been buried for most users. Metering will be both
    intelligent and user interactive at the same time. Same goes for auto
    focus, white balance, etc. Quality movies will be easily shot with small
    cameras that are also capable of high quality single images. Special
    effects (like IR photography) will be available with a button press.
    Built-in RF links to the WWW and other networks/computers will be common.
    Cameras will be combined with other functions (the cell phones that now take
    shots are a clue as to where this is going).
     
    Charles Schuler, Apr 10, 2004
    #5
  6. Ian Stirling

    Ian Stirling Guest

    Hans-Georg Michna <> wrote:
    > Ian Stirling <> wrote:
    >
    >>What will the camera market look like in 2014?
    >>
    >>Film will presumably be hanging on, but will be seen by many as
    >>only used by people who won't get with the program.
    >>
    >>Assuming that memory gets ever more dense, you'r probably looking at
    >>somewhere around 2G-32G being almost free to build into the camera.
    >>
    >>(depending on assumptions on growth of memory capacity)
    >>
    >>Optics won't have changed.
    >>
    >>Processor speed will be very fast, as will DSP.
    >>
    >>The lowest end digital cameras will be 3-4Mp, fixed focus with
    >>maybe 2G of memory, and no viewfinder.
    >>Perhaps $10.
    >>
    >>What about the high end?


    > I expect cameras to have lots of automatic image enhancement
    > functions, flash red eye removal being only the simplest.
    >
    > The difference between still photo cameras and movie cameras
    > could disappear.


    I suppose a likely result is that you'll see more and more times
    where the camera actually takes pictures all the time it's "on".

    If you click the button, you get the image it's taken then, or can
    choose to save the series of pictures (taken at several-many times a second)
    surrounding the "click".

    Things like digital motion compensation, where rather than moving the
    image around with mirrors, it's added up digitally, so camera shake goes
    away, even at high zooms with the smallest cameras.

    Organic LEDs, and other sorts of display technology will make the
    screen able to be thinner, cheaper, and easier to integrate.

    Tablet PCs will have gotten cheaper and cheaper, and the displays
    will be getting towards where they are a suitable medium to view
    photos on a full quality, displacing prints to an extent.
     
    Ian Stirling, Apr 10, 2004
    #6
  7. Ian Stirling <> wrote:

    >I suppose a likely result is that you'll see more and more times
    >where the camera actually takes pictures all the time it's "on".
    >
    >If you click the button, you get the image it's taken then, or can
    >choose to save the series of pictures (taken at several-many times a second)
    >surrounding the "click".


    Ian,

    actually I was very close to writing exactly that as well and
    then narrowly decided to hold back, so we seem to think in
    parallel in these matters.

    >Things like digital motion compensation, where rather than moving the
    >image around with mirrors, it's added up digitally, so camera shake goes
    >away, even at high zooms with the smallest cameras.


    Yes, I think that likely too.

    I also find it quite likely that either of two things can happen
    that are entirely unforeseeable for most.

    1. Entirely new features crop up that nobody had thought of
    before.

    2. The camera gets combined with other devices and interacts
    with them in ways nobody had thought of before.

    Hans-Georg

    --
    No mail, please.
     
    Hans-Georg Michna, Apr 11, 2004
    #7
  8. Ian Stirling

    Ian Stirling Guest

    Hans-Georg Michna <> wrote:
    > Ian Stirling <> wrote:
    >
    >>I suppose a likely result is that you'll see more and more times
    >>where the camera actually takes pictures all the time it's "on".
    >>
    >>If you click the button, you get the image it's taken then, or can
    >>choose to save the series of pictures (taken at several-many times a second)
    >>surrounding the "click".


    >>Things like digital motion compensation, where rather than moving the
    >>image around with mirrors, it's added up digitally, so camera shake goes
    >>away, even at high zooms with the smallest cameras.

    >
    > Yes, I think that likely too.
    >
    > I also find it quite likely that either of two things can happen
    > that are entirely unforeseeable for most.
    >
    > 1. Entirely new features crop up that nobody had thought of
    > before.


    A feature I think quite likely eventually, though it's hard to nail
    down a likely time, is a camera with many lenses, to boost light
    gathering ability.
    If you have a 50mm sensor, then the lenses are going to be large and
    heavy.
    If instead, you put 25 10mm sensors on, with 25 lenses (probably fixed)
    then you gain quite a bit in size and weight.
    This can pick up images in much lower light, and may be very suitable for
    a camera that's just jammed in a pocket, as you can ignore dirt/scratches
    too.
     
    Ian Stirling, Apr 11, 2004
    #8
  9. Ian Stirling

    DM Guest

    Ian Stirling <> wrote in message news:<j0Xdc.28914$9.net>...
    > What will the camera market look like in 2014?


    C/N/M/P/O/F etc will come out with a new DSLR every 6 months which
    obsoletes the previous model. They'll come out with a new P&S every
    couple of weeks. People will spend money like mad in the upgrade frenzy.
    Lots of people will lose their savings and go broke, begging for food
    on street corners after pawning their 14 DSLR's and lenses. We will
    see the economy go crazy and Japan grow really rich, thanks to everyone
    buying digitals at alarming rates. Yes, it is all a ploy for world
    domination.
     
    DM, Apr 12, 2004
    #9
  10. Ian Stirling

    Ron Bean Guest

    "Charles Schuler" <> writes:

    >Film v digital debates will have enjoyed a well deserved death by then.
    >Film will be used for special applications just as vacuum tubes are still
    >used for special applications now.


    People have not stopped arguing about vacuum tubes.
    I'd be very surprised if they stopped arguing about film.
     
    Ron Bean, Apr 14, 2004
    #10

  11. > People have not stopped arguing about vacuum tubes.
    > I'd be very surprised if they stopped arguing about film.


    True. But at least we won't hear much about vacuum tube digital cameras.
     
    Charles Schuler, Apr 14, 2004
    #11
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