The Demise of Discs: Hi-Def DVD in Jeopardy.

Discussion in 'DVD Video' started by Scot Gardner, Sep 11, 2003.

  1. Scot Gardner

    Scot Gardner Guest

    Report Forcasts the Demise of Discs

    Video Business in Depth: DVD Growth will be replaced by VOD, Forrester
    says.

    By Daniel Frankel 9/10-03

    SEPT. 10 | In five years, video-on-demand will represent 12% of all home
    entertainment revenue, according to a new report from Forrester
    Research. That will be enough for on-demand delivery to take a bite out
    of DVD sales, reorder windows and hobble the introduction of HD-DVD, the
    researcher predicts.

    In the report, titled "From Discs to Downloads," Forrester forecasts
    healthy growth in consumer spending on packaged home video through 2006,
    fueled by DVD growth. At that point, however, packaged video revenue
    will begin a gradual decline at the hand of all forms of VOD, according
    to the report.

    DVD's growth "will continue for quite a while, but not forever. And what
    replaces it will not be another format. It will be delivery down a
    wire," said Forrester analyst and report author Josh Bernoff.

    The report rests upon the premise that online piracy in the video
    entertainment market lags only three years behind the recorded music
    industry, which has lost $700 million so far to file-sharing, Forrester
    says. The researcher maintains that movie studios will embrace on-demand
    services as the best defense against piracy and develop them at the
    expense of home video.

    The proliferation of broadband connections (30 million consumers will
    spend $14 billion annually in 2004, Forrester says) and the widespread
    availability of inexpensive storage devices such as PC hard drives and
    digital video recorders are already making it easier for file-sharers to
    swap video. In fact, 20% of the 12- to 22-year-olds that Forrester terms
    "juvenile pirates" have downloaded a movie in the past month, the report
    says. A quarter of these users say DVD is too expensive, and 11% say
    they already buy fewer DVDs, according to Forrester.

    "Rather than risk the meltdown that happened in music, studios are
    responding by embracing all forms of on-demand delivery," the report
    reads. That extends, Forrester believes, to releasing movies at the same
    time as DVD by 2004 and to moving the VOD release to within two months
    of theatrical release by 2006.

    "In the next three years, cable VOD and other on-demand distribution
    options will reduce store-based movie rental revenue by 16%," it says,
    citing the growth of Internet and cable VOD services. Cable VOD services
    will be in 85% of homes by 2004, Forrester predicts.

    In five years, the report suggests, "Home video rental revenue will drop
    37%, leaving those stores to focus on sales. But cable and satellite
    will begin to nibble away at DVD sales by allowing permanent downloads
    of content to PC and DVR hard drives."

    Bernoff also contends that VOD growth could result in a next-generation
    high-definition DVD format being "stillborn."

    A number of key home entertainment executives took issue with the report
    last week, most specifically, its aggressive forecast for rapid
    cable-based VOD proliferation.

    Blockbuster Video officials, for example, cite recently revised Kagan
    World Media data that suggests that cable VOD revenue will total only
    about $2.8 billion by 2008, because cable providers will remain too
    capital constrained to establish the infrastructure. Also, they say
    studios enjoy too much of an advantage in margin with DVD over VOD to
    let physical media disappear too soon.

    "We're not worried about VOD," said a Blockbuster spokeswoman. "VOD
    continues to happen much more slowly than predicted. And when it does
    reach saturation, we believe it will remain a nice upgrade for
    pay-per-view because of the studios' financial interest."

    "The report's assumptions for adoption of digital delivery of movies via
    cable and the Internet appear wildly optimistic in light of the much
    more modest estimates of longtime industry analysts," Bo Andersen,
    president of the Video Software Dealers Association, said in a
    statement.

    According to Charles Van Horn, president of the International Recording
    Media Association, the Forrester Report also fails to take into account
    the effects of consumer education programs designed to combat piracy as
    well as legal initiatives recently undertaken by the Recording Industry
    Association of America.

    For its part, IRMA is predicting a 15% decline in CD manufacturing by
    2008 but expects DVD replication to nearly double to 2.6 billion units
    during the next five years.

    Meanwhile, a studio official actively involved with the development of
    HD-DVD suggested that proliferation of HD-VOD is too far out to be
    considered. In fact, he suggested that a time of growth for
    standard-definition VOD was a "perfect" time for suppliers to introduce
    a next-generation physical format such as HD-DVD.

    Retailers contend that the report fails to take into account their own
    participation in electronic distribution.

    "We see no reason why the Blockbuster brand can't be in the VOD arena,"
    said the Blockbuster spokeswoman.

    Added an official for Borders Stores, a retailer experimenting with
    online music distribution: "We see a day when physical and digital
    formats co-exist."

    The Forrester report is based on data from two separate consumer surveys
    conducted by the research concern this year with more than 6,000 total
    participants and data from BigChampagne, a peer-to-peer monitoring
    service.

    http://www.videobusiness.com/article.asp?articleID=6131&catType=NEWS
    Scot Gardner, Sep 11, 2003
    #1
    1. Advertising

  2. Scot Gardner

    Zimmy Guest

    This "Sky is Falling" story has been around before DVDs existed.
    The studios might want it but the consumers will never stand for it.

    "Scot Gardner" <> wrote in message
    news:20030911113128.438$...
    > Report Forcasts the Demise of Discs
    >
    > Video Business in Depth: DVD Growth will be replaced by VOD, Forrester
    > says.
    >
    > By Daniel Frankel 9/10-03
    >
    > SEPT. 10 | In five years, video-on-demand will represent 12% of all home
    > entertainment revenue, according to a new report from Forrester
    > Research. That will be enough for on-demand delivery to take a bite out
    > of DVD sales, reorder windows and hobble the introduction of HD-DVD, the
    > researcher predicts.
    >
    > In the report, titled "From Discs to Downloads," Forrester forecasts
    > healthy growth in consumer spending on packaged home video through 2006,
    > fueled by DVD growth. At that point, however, packaged video revenue
    > will begin a gradual decline at the hand of all forms of VOD, according
    > to the report.
    >
    > DVD's growth "will continue for quite a while, but not forever. And what
    > replaces it will not be another format. It will be delivery down a
    > wire," said Forrester analyst and report author Josh Bernoff.
    >
    > The report rests upon the premise that online piracy in the video
    > entertainment market lags only three years behind the recorded music
    > industry, which has lost $700 million so far to file-sharing, Forrester
    > says. The researcher maintains that movie studios will embrace on-demand
    > services as the best defense against piracy and develop them at the
    > expense of home video.
    >
    > The proliferation of broadband connections (30 million consumers will
    > spend $14 billion annually in 2004, Forrester says) and the widespread
    > availability of inexpensive storage devices such as PC hard drives and
    > digital video recorders are already making it easier for file-sharers to
    > swap video. In fact, 20% of the 12- to 22-year-olds that Forrester terms
    > "juvenile pirates" have downloaded a movie in the past month, the report
    > says. A quarter of these users say DVD is too expensive, and 11% say
    > they already buy fewer DVDs, according to Forrester.
    >
    > "Rather than risk the meltdown that happened in music, studios are
    > responding by embracing all forms of on-demand delivery," the report
    > reads. That extends, Forrester believes, to releasing movies at the same
    > time as DVD by 2004 and to moving the VOD release to within two months
    > of theatrical release by 2006.
    >
    > "In the next three years, cable VOD and other on-demand distribution
    > options will reduce store-based movie rental revenue by 16%," it says,
    > citing the growth of Internet and cable VOD services. Cable VOD services
    > will be in 85% of homes by 2004, Forrester predicts.
    >
    > In five years, the report suggests, "Home video rental revenue will drop
    > 37%, leaving those stores to focus on sales. But cable and satellite
    > will begin to nibble away at DVD sales by allowing permanent downloads
    > of content to PC and DVR hard drives."
    >
    > Bernoff also contends that VOD growth could result in a next-generation
    > high-definition DVD format being "stillborn."
    >
    > A number of key home entertainment executives took issue with the report
    > last week, most specifically, its aggressive forecast for rapid
    > cable-based VOD proliferation.
    >
    > Blockbuster Video officials, for example, cite recently revised Kagan
    > World Media data that suggests that cable VOD revenue will total only
    > about $2.8 billion by 2008, because cable providers will remain too
    > capital constrained to establish the infrastructure. Also, they say
    > studios enjoy too much of an advantage in margin with DVD over VOD to
    > let physical media disappear too soon.
    >
    > "We're not worried about VOD," said a Blockbuster spokeswoman. "VOD
    > continues to happen much more slowly than predicted. And when it does
    > reach saturation, we believe it will remain a nice upgrade for
    > pay-per-view because of the studios' financial interest."
    >
    > "The report's assumptions for adoption of digital delivery of movies via
    > cable and the Internet appear wildly optimistic in light of the much
    > more modest estimates of longtime industry analysts," Bo Andersen,
    > president of the Video Software Dealers Association, said in a
    > statement.
    >
    > According to Charles Van Horn, president of the International Recording
    > Media Association, the Forrester Report also fails to take into account
    > the effects of consumer education programs designed to combat piracy as
    > well as legal initiatives recently undertaken by the Recording Industry
    > Association of America.
    >
    > For its part, IRMA is predicting a 15% decline in CD manufacturing by
    > 2008 but expects DVD replication to nearly double to 2.6 billion units
    > during the next five years.
    >
    > Meanwhile, a studio official actively involved with the development of
    > HD-DVD suggested that proliferation of HD-VOD is too far out to be
    > considered. In fact, he suggested that a time of growth for
    > standard-definition VOD was a "perfect" time for suppliers to introduce
    > a next-generation physical format such as HD-DVD.
    >
    > Retailers contend that the report fails to take into account their own
    > participation in electronic distribution.
    >
    > "We see no reason why the Blockbuster brand can't be in the VOD arena,"
    > said the Blockbuster spokeswoman.
    >
    > Added an official for Borders Stores, a retailer experimenting with
    > online music distribution: "We see a day when physical and digital
    > formats co-exist."
    >
    > The Forrester report is based on data from two separate consumer surveys
    > conducted by the research concern this year with more than 6,000 total
    > participants and data from BigChampagne, a peer-to-peer monitoring
    > service.
    >
    > http://www.videobusiness.com/article.asp?articleID=6131&catType=NEWS
    >
    >
    Zimmy, Sep 11, 2003
    #2
    1. Advertising

  3. Yep...this is just another re-write of the same Forrester report. It's not
    the first, and won't be the last. Anyone's who's ever consulted Forrester
    should know to take their report with a large grain of salt.

    Somehow this time they did a great job of confusing the obvious.


    in article bjq63g$lrdjt$-berlin.de, Zimmy at
    wrote on 9/11/03 8:58 AM:

    > This "Sky is Falling" story has been around before DVDs existed.
    > The studios might want it but the consumers will never stand for it.
    >
    > "Scot Gardner" <> wrote in message
    > news:20030911113128.438$...
    >> Report Forcasts the Demise of Discs
    >>
    >> Video Business in Depth: DVD Growth will be replaced by VOD, Forrester
    >> says.
    >>
    >> By Daniel Frankel 9/10-03
    >>
    >> SEPT. 10 | In five years, video-on-demand will represent 12% of all home
    >> entertainment revenue, according to a new report from Forrester
    >> Research. That will be enough for on-demand delivery to take a bite out
    >> of DVD sales, reorder windows and hobble the introduction of HD-DVD, the
    >> researcher predicts.
    >>
    >> In the report, titled "From Discs to Downloads," Forrester forecasts
    >> healthy growth in consumer spending on packaged home video through 2006,
    >> fueled by DVD growth. At that point, however, packaged video revenue
    >> will begin a gradual decline at the hand of all forms of VOD, according
    >> to the report.
    >>
    >> DVD's growth "will continue for quite a while, but not forever. And what
    >> replaces it will not be another format. It will be delivery down a
    >> wire," said Forrester analyst and report author Josh Bernoff.
    >>
    >> The report rests upon the premise that online piracy in the video
    >> entertainment market lags only three years behind the recorded music
    >> industry, which has lost $700 million so far to file-sharing, Forrester
    >> says. The researcher maintains that movie studios will embrace on-demand
    >> services as the best defense against piracy and develop them at the
    >> expense of home video.
    >>
    >> The proliferation of broadband connections (30 million consumers will
    >> spend $14 billion annually in 2004, Forrester says) and the widespread
    >> availability of inexpensive storage devices such as PC hard drives and
    >> digital video recorders are already making it easier for file-sharers to
    >> swap video. In fact, 20% of the 12- to 22-year-olds that Forrester terms
    >> "juvenile pirates" have downloaded a movie in the past month, the report
    >> says. A quarter of these users say DVD is too expensive, and 11% say
    >> they already buy fewer DVDs, according to Forrester.
    >>
    >> "Rather than risk the meltdown that happened in music, studios are
    >> responding by embracing all forms of on-demand delivery," the report
    >> reads. That extends, Forrester believes, to releasing movies at the same
    >> time as DVD by 2004 and to moving the VOD release to within two months
    >> of theatrical release by 2006.
    >>
    >> "In the next three years, cable VOD and other on-demand distribution
    >> options will reduce store-based movie rental revenue by 16%," it says,
    >> citing the growth of Internet and cable VOD services. Cable VOD services
    >> will be in 85% of homes by 2004, Forrester predicts.
    >>
    >> In five years, the report suggests, "Home video rental revenue will drop
    >> 37%, leaving those stores to focus on sales. But cable and satellite
    >> will begin to nibble away at DVD sales by allowing permanent downloads
    >> of content to PC and DVR hard drives."
    >>
    >> Bernoff also contends that VOD growth could result in a next-generation
    >> high-definition DVD format being "stillborn."
    >>
    >> A number of key home entertainment executives took issue with the report
    >> last week, most specifically, its aggressive forecast for rapid
    >> cable-based VOD proliferation.
    >>
    >> Blockbuster Video officials, for example, cite recently revised Kagan
    >> World Media data that suggests that cable VOD revenue will total only
    >> about $2.8 billion by 2008, because cable providers will remain too
    >> capital constrained to establish the infrastructure. Also, they say
    >> studios enjoy too much of an advantage in margin with DVD over VOD to
    >> let physical media disappear too soon.
    >>
    >> "We're not worried about VOD," said a Blockbuster spokeswoman. "VOD
    >> continues to happen much more slowly than predicted. And when it does
    >> reach saturation, we believe it will remain a nice upgrade for
    >> pay-per-view because of the studios' financial interest."
    >>
    >> "The report's assumptions for adoption of digital delivery of movies via
    >> cable and the Internet appear wildly optimistic in light of the much
    >> more modest estimates of longtime industry analysts," Bo Andersen,
    >> president of the Video Software Dealers Association, said in a
    >> statement.
    >>
    >> According to Charles Van Horn, president of the International Recording
    >> Media Association, the Forrester Report also fails to take into account
    >> the effects of consumer education programs designed to combat piracy as
    >> well as legal initiatives recently undertaken by the Recording Industry
    >> Association of America.
    >>
    >> For its part, IRMA is predicting a 15% decline in CD manufacturing by
    >> 2008 but expects DVD replication to nearly double to 2.6 billion units
    >> during the next five years.
    >>
    >> Meanwhile, a studio official actively involved with the development of
    >> HD-DVD suggested that proliferation of HD-VOD is too far out to be
    >> considered. In fact, he suggested that a time of growth for
    >> standard-definition VOD was a "perfect" time for suppliers to introduce
    >> a next-generation physical format such as HD-DVD.
    >>
    >> Retailers contend that the report fails to take into account their own
    >> participation in electronic distribution.
    >>
    >> "We see no reason why the Blockbuster brand can't be in the VOD arena,"
    >> said the Blockbuster spokeswoman.
    >>
    >> Added an official for Borders Stores, a retailer experimenting with
    >> online music distribution: "We see a day when physical and digital
    >> formats co-exist."
    >>
    >> The Forrester report is based on data from two separate consumer surveys
    >> conducted by the research concern this year with more than 6,000 total
    >> participants and data from BigChampagne, a peer-to-peer monitoring
    >> service.
    >>
    >> http://www.videobusiness.com/article.asp?articleID=6131&catType=NEWS
    >>
    >>

    >
    >
    MR_ED_of_Course, Sep 11, 2003
    #3
  4. Scot Gardner

    Guest

    I can see it now; Censorship of VOD as the tides
    change. One week you'll see a movie complete, the
    next, not. I hope the more thoughtful consumers will
    stick with the solid formats instead of being at the
    whim of the type of people who conceived DIVX and
    TIVO.
    -Rich
    , Sep 12, 2003
    #4
  5. Scot Gardner

    GMAN Guest

    In article <>, wrote:
    > I can see it now; Censorship of VOD as the tides
    > change. One week you'll see a movie complete, the
    >next, not. I hope the more thoughtful consumers will
    >stick with the solid formats instead of being at the
    >whim of the type of people who conceived DIVX and
    >TIVO.
    >-Rich

    I cannot believ you lump Divx and TIVO together. TIVO is next to sliced bread
    and butter on the cool scale.
    GMAN, Sep 12, 2003
    #5
  6. Scot Gardner

    Richard C. Guest

    I have no interest in VOD.
    Most people I know have no interest in VOD.

    It will not replace DVD.

    ==============================
    "Scot Gardner" <> wrote in message
    news:20030911113128.438$...
    : Report Forcasts the Demise of Discs
    :
    : Video Business in Depth: DVD Growth will be replaced by VOD, Forrester
    : says.
    :
    : By Daniel Frankel 9/10-03
    :
    : SEPT. 10 | In five years, video-on-demand will represent 12% of all home
    : entertainment revenue, according to a new report from Forrester
    : Research. That will be enough for on-demand delivery to take a bite out
    : of DVD sales, reorder windows and hobble the introduction of HD-DVD, the
    : researcher predicts.
    :
    ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,<<<<<<<<<<,,snip>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Richard C., Sep 13, 2003
    #6
  7. Hey! TIVO is way cool.

    And DVD, thanks to HD-DVD in a few years, will be around for a LONG time to
    come. The only thing that VOD could replace is your local Blockbuster Video.
    JustinJStanley, Sep 13, 2003
    #7
  8. Richard C. wrote:
    > I have no interest in VOD.
    > Most people I know have no interest in VOD.
    >
    > It will not replace DVD.
    >


    VOD is great for recording tv shows. I have recorder with my cable
    service, and I use it to record Simpsons, Good Eats, Monk, and the like.
    I can watch them whenever I want, can't miss them, speed through
    commercials, it's great.

    However, I wouldn't dream of using it for movies.

    --
    "Get rid of the Range Rover. You are not responsible for patrolling
    Australia's Dingo Barrier Fence, nor do you work the Savannah, capturing
    and tagging wildebeests."
    --Michael J. Nelson

    Grand Inquisitor
    http://www.dvdprofiler.com/mycollection.asp?alias=Oost
    Grand Inquisitor, Sep 13, 2003
    #8
  9. Scot Gardner

    Black Locust Guest

    In article <bjsut4$sce$>,
    (GMAN) wrote:

    > I cannot believ you lump Divx and TIVO together. TIVO is next to sliced bread
    > and butter on the cool scale.


    I agree. A better comparison would have been Divx and EZ-D.
    --
    BL
    Black Locust, Sep 14, 2003
    #9
  10. Scot Gardner

    Richard C. Guest

    "JustinJStanley" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    : Hey! TIVO is way cool.
    :
    : And DVD, thanks to HD-DVD in a few years, will be around for a LONG time to
    : come. The only thing that VOD could replace is your local Blockbuster Video.

    ============
    TIVO is not VOD.
    Richard C., Sep 14, 2003
    #10
  11. Scot Gardner

    Richard C. Guest

    "Grand Inquisitor" <> wrote in message
    news:%CL8b.5093$...
    : Richard C. wrote:
    : > I have no interest in VOD.
    : > Most people I know have no interest in VOD.
    : >
    : > It will not replace DVD.
    : >
    :
    : VOD is great for recording tv shows. I have recorder with my cable
    : service, and I use it to record Simpsons, Good Eats, Monk, and the like.
    : I can watch them whenever I want, can't miss them, speed through
    : commercials, it's great.
    :
    : However, I wouldn't dream of using it for movies.
    :
    ========================
    What you are talking about is NOT VOD.
    Do you know what it is?
    Richard C., Sep 14, 2003
    #11
  12. Grand Inquisitor <> wrote in message news:<%CL8b.5093$>...
    > Richard C. wrote:
    > > I have no interest in VOD.
    > > Most people I know have no interest in VOD.
    > >
    > > It will not replace DVD.
    > >

    >
    > VOD is great for recording tv shows. I have recorder with my cable
    > service, and I use it to record Simpsons, Good Eats, Monk, and the like.
    > I can watch them whenever I want, can't miss them, speed through
    > commercials, it's great.
    >
    > However, I wouldn't dream of using it for movies.


    You must be confusing your TiVo with VOD.

    VOD is video-on-demand. Your cable company will store many movies on
    their database servers, and if there is a movie you want to see, you
    call them up (or enter it through your cable box), and your set-top
    box will download the movie from their servers. You can then watch it
    whenever you want.

    VOD is essentially an extension of the current pay-per-view setup that
    most cable companies already have in place.

    You would have to pay $3 or $4 per movie for each movie download, or
    whatever price they set for each movie viewing.

    The only differences between VOD and the current pay-per-view is that
    you should be able to select whatever movie you want to watch instead
    of watching what is airing at that current scheduled time, and you
    should be able to watch it whenever you want. Will you be limited to
    just one viewing? I don't know.

    It is highly unlikely that VOD will offer alternate commentary tracks
    or bonus featurettes that you can find on DVDs. This is one major
    reason that will limit the success of VOD. Another will be the lack
    of selection of titles to choose from to rent. Will they offer
    20,000+ movies, and will they offer director's cuts or
    alternate/extended cut versions of movies? Will they offer music
    concerts, comedy standup routines, or video compilations?
    Documentaries? These are some of the attractive features of DVDs that
    VOD will unlikely offer.

    Lee
    limacharliewhiskey, Sep 16, 2003
    #12
    1. Advertising

Want to reply to this thread or ask your own question?

It takes just 2 minutes to sign up (and it's free!). Just click the sign up button to choose a username and then you can ask your own questions on the forum.
Similar Threads
  1. A Que Ry

    Outlook Express demise???

    A Que Ry, Aug 24, 2003, in forum: Computer Support
    Replies:
    18
    Views:
    679
    Boomer
    Aug 25, 2003
  2. Replies:
    28
    Views:
    1,108
    Stephen M. Adams
    May 12, 2005
  3. Doug MacLean
    Replies:
    0
    Views:
    513
    Doug MacLean
    May 18, 2004
  4. Allan
    Replies:
    24
    Views:
    852
    Tim V.
    Apr 4, 2006
  5. Impmon

    Prediction of DVD's demise....

    Impmon, Nov 5, 2006, in forum: DVD Video
    Replies:
    14
    Views:
    693
Loading...

Share This Page