# Queen or Crown

Discussion in 'Computer Support' started by Plato, Dec 14, 2004.

1. ### PlatoGuest

You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p coin.
It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase pay
the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
"Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.

The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
you win". You say OK.

What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
up?

A: 25%
B: 50%
C: 75%

Plato, Dec 14, 2004

2. ### =?ISO-8859-1?Q?R=F4g=EAr?=Guest

Plato wrote:

> You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
> newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
> good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p coin.
> It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase pay
> the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
> the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
> "Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.
>
> The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
> you win". You say OK.
>
> What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
> up?
>
> A: 25%
> B: 50%
> C: 75%

Odds are since you couldn't understand the last question you asked along
these lines that I won't bother with this one.

=?ISO-8859-1?Q?R=F4g=EAr?=, Dec 14, 2004

3. ### philoGuest

"Plato" <|@|.|> wrote in message
news:41bf0e17\$0\$18461\$...
> You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
> newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
> good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p coin.
> It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase pay
> the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
> the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
> "Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.
>
> The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
> you win". You say OK.
>
> What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
> up?
>

everytime you flip a coin
the odds are 50-50 of it landing on any one side
(assuming the coin is equally weighted of course)

philo, Dec 14, 2004
4. ### WormWoodGuest

"Plato" <|@|.|> wrote in message
news:41bf0e17\$0\$18461\$...
> You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
> newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
> good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p
> coin.
> It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase
> pay
> the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
> the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
> "Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.
>
> The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
> you win". You say OK.
>
> What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
> up?
>
> A: 25%
> B: 50%
> C: 75%
>

Queen I win, Crown you lose is a better rule.

WormWood, Dec 14, 2004
5. ### gruffyddGuest

what are the chances of a hefty fine. such games are most definitely
illegal, and played by idiots

gruffydd, Dec 14, 2004
6. ### Walter MautnerGuest

Plato wrote:

> You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
> newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
> good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p coin.
> It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase pay
> the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
> the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
> "Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.
>
> The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
> you win". You say OK.
>
> What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
> up?
>
> A: 25%
> B: 50%
> C: 75%

There is no accumulative chance as random theory says, so it's still 50:50.
Remember, the coin is really dumb and doesn't remember where it landed
beforehand. Ah well, it may be prepared and find itself magically attracted
by a magnet buried. Also there is a chance you lose regardlessly of the
landing, just in case a policeman enters the scene :=).
--
Longhorn error#4711: TCPA / NGSCP VIOLATION: Microsoft optical mouse
detected penguin patterns on mousepad. Partition scan in progress
to remove offending incompatible products.  Reactivate your MS software.
Linux woodpecker.homnet.at 2.6.9-mm1[LinuxCounter#295241]

Walter Mautner, Dec 14, 2004
7. ### Joel RubinGuest

On 14 Dec 2004 10:03:16 -0600, Plato <|@|.|> wrote:

>You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
>newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
>good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p coin.
>It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase pay
>the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
>the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
>"Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.
>
>The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
>you win". You say OK.
>
>What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
>up?
>
>A: 25%
>B: 50%
>C: 75%

"Games of chance" taking place near railroad stations in which passers
by are invited to play are likely to have more to do with
prestidigitation and the "winner" being a shill for the operator than
with chance.

However, if a game is fair, then the odds on toss #237 (for example)
are 50-50.

There are two "gambler's FALLACIES".

Falacy 1) "A string of heads will continue" (frequently because a
"lucky" person is betting)

Falacy 2) "Well, there's been a string of mostly heads and the law of
odds says heads and tails must be more-or-less balanced so now there
will be a string of mostly tails to balance things out."

Joel Rubin, Dec 15, 2004
8. ### PlatoGuest

philo wrote:
>
> > You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
> > newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
> > good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p coin.
> > It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase pay
> > the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
> > the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
> > "Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.
> >
> > The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
> > you win". You say OK.
> >
> > What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
> > up?

>
> everytime you flip a coin
> the odds are 50-50 of it landing on any one side
> (assuming the coin is equally weighted of course)

So, if as you say in this example, the odds are 50-50, then that means
that the dealer will haul his table across town everyday and work all
day long for ZERO net income in the London fog and rain?

Plato, Dec 15, 2004
9. ### PlatoGuest

gruffydd wrote:
>
> what are the chances of a hefty fine. such games are most definitely
> illegal, and played by idiots

You're on the right track. Take 3 card monte for example, there are
still over 5000 games being played every day on the New York streets.

Plato, Dec 15, 2004
10. ### PlatoGuest

Joel Rubin wrote:
>
> "Games of chance" taking place near railroad stations in which passers
> by are invited to play are likely to have more to do with
> prestidigitation and the "winner" being a shill for the operator than
> with chance.

OK you got one of the two clues in the question.

> There are two "gambler's FALLACIES".
>
> Falacy 1) "A string of heads will continue" (frequently because a
> "lucky" person is betting)
>
> Falacy 2) "Well, there's been a string of mostly heads and the law of
> odds says heads and tails must be more-or-less balanced so now there
> will be a string of mostly tails to balance things out."

And you got the other clue. There is also a third, false clue intended
to throw you off.

Plato, Dec 15, 2004
11. ### PlatoGuest

philo wrote:
>
> > What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
> > up?

>
> everytime you flip a coin
> the odds are 50-50 of it landing on any one side
> (assuming the coin is equally weighted of course)

That's true, but does it apply in this case?

Plato, Dec 15, 2004
12. ### PlatoGuest

Rôgêr wrote:
>
> > What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
> > up?
> >
> > A: 25%
> > B: 50%
> > C: 75%

>
> Odds are since you couldn't understand the last question you asked along
> these lines that I won't bother with this one.

Noboby posted the correct answer yet. Are you sure you dont want to take
a chance?

Plato, Dec 15, 2004
13. ### PlatoGuest

WormWood wrote:
>
> Queen I win, Crown you lose is a better rule.

Used to work on my kids when they were little

Plato, Dec 15, 2004
14. ### PlatoGuest

Plato wrote:
>

Unless I missed it. It seems nobody posted the correct answer. The
answer to the question is None Of The Above. The chances of the next
coin toss landing in your favor in this example is ZERO and you will
lose your 5 quid to the dealer on the first toss.

How you may ask? Well, think about it. The dealer is NOT going to work
all day long in the London fog and rain and make any money with a 50-50
chance game, is he. The "other businessman" is part of the scam. You see
a Queen, then you see 3 Crowns so you incorrectly assume it's a valid
coin. You also see the "businessman" walk off with winnings so you
assume the game is valid.

How is this done? The dealer has 2 coins. One is a double Queen and the
other is a double Crown. He keeps both in his hand and tosses the one he
wants to achive his goal of making money.

> You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
> newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
> good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p coin.
> It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase pay
> the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
> the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
> "Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.
>
> The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
> you win". You say OK.
>
> What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
> up?
>
> A: 25%
> B: 50%
> C: 75%

Plato, Dec 16, 2004