Prediction of DVD's demise....

Discussion in 'DVD Video' started by Impmon, Nov 5, 2006.

  1. Impmon

    Impmon Guest

    http://www.robertsdvd.com/failure.html

    A very old article but someone predicted that DVD would fail for many
    reasons. Yet today DVD easily outsells VHS and DVD-ROM is now a
    standard feature in just about all modern computers.

    Good for a laugh or 2... =)
    --
    When you hear the toilet flush, and hear the words "uh oh", it's already
    too late. - by anonymous Mother in Austin, TX
    Spam block in place, no emil reply is expected at all.
    Impmon, Nov 5, 2006
    #1
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  2. Impmon

    Aphelion Guest

    OMG, that's just hilarious. Has that guy moved to Alaska?


    > A very old article but someone predicted that DVD would fail for many
    > reasons. Yet today DVD easily outsells VHS and DVD-ROM is now a
    > standard feature in just about all modern computers.
    >
    > Good for a laugh or 2... =)
    Aphelion, Nov 5, 2006
    #2
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  3. Aphelion wrote:
    >
    >>A very old article but someone predicted that DVD would fail for many
    >>reasons. Yet today DVD easily outsells VHS and DVD-ROM is now a
    >>standard feature in just about all modern computers.
    >>
    >>Good for a laugh or 2... =)

    >
    >
    > OMG, that's just hilarious. Has that guy moved to Alaska?


    No, check the posting date: Like, circa 1996.

    The days of "OMG, laserdisc wasn't GOOD enough for your obscure and
    overpriced home theater, so you had to buy a *DVD*??"
    (With all the references to RCA Selectavision included.)

    Derek Janssen (makes a nice historical change from constantly quoting
    that '96 "Third Rock" episode) :)
    Derek Janssen, Nov 5, 2006
    #3
  4. Impmon

    Aphelion Guest

    > No, check the posting date: Like, circa 1996.

    Uh... yes, I noticed the posting date. Not sure what you're implying.


    Aphelion
    Aphelion, Nov 6, 2006
    #4
  5. Impmon

    Steve Guest

    On Sun, 05 Nov 2006 20:20:46 GMT, Impmon <> wrote:

    >http://www.robertsdvd.com/failure.html
    >
    >A very old article but someone predicted that DVD would fail for many
    >reasons. Yet today DVD easily outsells VHS and DVD-ROM is now a
    >standard feature in just about all modern computers.
    >
    >Good for a laugh or 2... =)


    It's worth noting that this fellow was not alone in his opinion of the
    failure of DVD. The importance of being able to record was considered
    one of the reasons for the lack of (relative) success of laserdisc and
    the failure of CED, whereas in retrospect that was not the main factor
    in either case. And of course now we CAN record to DVD. The early
    DVDs, encoded on 486s and Pentium 1's with then-new Mpeg2 encoders
    WERE quite poor quality.

    The upshot? DVDs were the fastest-adopted new medium in entertainment
    history.

    .. Steve ..
    Steve, Nov 6, 2006
    #5
  6. Aphelion wrote:

    >>No, check the posting date: Like, circa 1996.

    >
    > Uh... yes, I noticed the posting date. Not sure what you're implying.


    (Well, it would be odd if it was a current post, although Blockbuster
    DVD's aren't unknown in Alaska, either.)

    Derek Janssen
    ejanss#comcast.net
    Derek Janssen, Nov 6, 2006
    #6
  7. Impmon

    rob Guest

    This reminds me of when digital audio was getting popular and
    many bozos were saying that they could hear the bits and that it
    would never work.
    rob, Nov 7, 2006
    #7
  8. rob wrote:

    > This reminds me of when digital audio was getting popular and
    > many bozos were saying that they could hear the bits and that it
    > would never work.


    Does offer unique parallel insight into the HD/Blu Wars, though:

    - "Audiences didn't need it, and they don't want it!
    - "The studios and companies are deciding this for us!"
    - "Two competing formats only means two losers!"
    - "Who cares, if we can't record on it yet?"
    - "Only neurotic home-theater buffs can shell out that kind of dough!"
    - "Oo, 'unique bonus features'!...'You can change the angle'!...They're
    toys, who cares??"
    - "It's just the same ol' flop-action movies! Who wants one more
    version of 'Twister' and 'Lethal Weapon 4'?"

    Derek Janssen (and then...2009 came along)
    Derek Janssen, Nov 7, 2006
    #8
  9. Impmon

    Jukka Aho Guest

    rob wrote:

    > This reminds me of when digital audio was getting popular and
    > many bozos were saying that they could hear the bits and that it
    > would never work.


    There was a time (ca. 1989, or so, if my memory serves me right, or
    perhaps a bit earlier) when various people on dial-up BBSes - grown-ups,
    seasoned computer users, not just random teenagers - insisted that "a
    real computer" [1] would never ever need any fancier audio features than
    a piezoelectric beeper. "After all, sound features are only ever needed
    for games and gaming plaforms. A serious computer, such as the PC, does
    not need such things."

    A couple of years later, sound cards started appearing left and right
    for the PC, and the PC became the primary gaming platform...

    * * *

    A similar argument was made about multitasking. Multitasking on a
    personal computer was - according to mostly the same group of people -
    just a fad, and not _only_ a fad but a totally _ridiculous_, _needless_
    thing for a personal computer, or its operator. "After all, on a
    single-user system, you can only really use a single program at a time."

    A couple of years later, every technically-oriented PC user and their
    dog was installing OS/2 on their 386 or 486 because it could multitask
    for real.

    _____

    [1] "A real computer" is, of course, the computer platform the writer is
    using himself. Those guys mostly had IBM-compatible PCs running MS-DOS.
    (The whole argument was brought up because the Amiga line of computers -
    which was quite popular at homes then, especially in Europe - had
    4-channel DMA-controlled digital stereo sound and pre-emptive
    multitasking - both features which were unheard of at that time on other
    "home computer" platforms and operating systems. [2] The buzzword
    "multimedia" had not yet been invented.)

    --
    znark
    Jukka Aho, Nov 7, 2006
    #9
  10. Steve <> wrote in
    news:p:

    > On Sun, 05 Nov 2006 20:20:46 GMT, Impmon <> wrote:
    >
    >>http://www.robertsdvd.com/failure.html
    >>
    >>A very old article but someone predicted that DVD would fail for many
    >>reasons. Yet today DVD easily outsells VHS and DVD-ROM is now a
    >>standard feature in just about all modern computers.
    >>
    >>Good for a laugh or 2... =)

    >
    > It's worth noting that this fellow was not alone in his opinion of the
    > failure of DVD.


    Indeed. In fact, at the time this article was written, I was saying
    many of the same things. History showed DVD to be a winner. There's
    no shame in being wrong now and then.

    --

    Aaron J. Bossig

    http://www.GodsLabRat.com
    http://www.dvdverdict.com
    Aaron J. Bossig, Nov 7, 2006
    #10
  11. On Sun, 05 Nov 2006 20:20:46 GMT, Impmon <> wrote:

    >http://www.robertsdvd.com/failure.html
    >
    >A very old article but someone predicted that DVD would fail for many
    >reasons. Yet today DVD easily outsells VHS and DVD-ROM is now a
    >standard feature in just about all modern computers.
    >
    >Good for a laugh or 2... =)

    If you think back to the days of CD vs. Cassette you can see where the
    guy was coming from. Plus I recall many many of my friends and family
    saying "I won't buy one until they record". As a movie lover I always
    jump at the chance of more material, for example widescreen VHS with
    an additional tape with extras and eventually the godliness that
    was/is laserdisc. A lot of people were looking down on DVD, especially
    with VCD being the only real previous consumer accessible digital
    video. I still get ticked off on the picture quality of some cheaply
    made DVDs…. but just like laserdisc there are great ones, poor ones
    and the majority in-between. This article did have me laughing to
    tears in some parts but it also reminded me very much of the current
    HD-DVD vs. Blu-ray battle going on. This time, I'm staying out of the
    fight.
    Jonathan Brisby, Nov 7, 2006
    #11
  12. Jonathan Brisby wrote:
    > This article did have me laughing to
    > tears in some parts but it also reminded me very much of the current
    > HD-DVD vs. Blu-ray battle going on. This time, I'm staying out of the
    > fight.


    Have to admit, part of me right now was recently wondering whether the
    next DVD-player purchase would be to buy a new HD/Blu player to play
    regular disks on a normal YCbCr component-enabled set, until the Cool
    Widescreen sets start coming down in price over the next two years--
    And for a while, I was tempted to just give in and say, "Look, YOU know,
    and I know: It's gonna be HD, because Blu-Ray is Sony, and if there's a
    winner, it sure as heck ain't gonna be Sony."

    What kept me from listening to the devil on that shoulder was the angel
    on the other shoulder saying--
    "They're cracking...They're CRACK-IING...Just tighten the poor-sales
    screws a *little* more until after the next Consumer Electronics show,
    and we'll see those dual-format players and bipartisan studios by year's
    end. :) "

    (So that's where I am right now:
    We *could* hopefully end up a DVD+R/-R situation where nobody cares who
    wins, we all go running over the hill, and the companies end up losing
    while the patient customer gets to rule both roosts--Just have to resist
    temptation a little longer.)

    Derek Janssen
    Derek Janssen, Nov 7, 2006
    #12
  13. On Mon, 06 Nov 2006 21:59:52 -0500, Derek Janssen
    <> wrote:


    >What kept me from listening to the devil on that shoulder was the angel
    >on the other shoulder saying--
    >"They're cracking...They're CRACK-IING...Just tighten the poor-sales
    >screws a *little* more until after the next Consumer Electronics show,
    >and we'll see those dual-format players and bipartisan studios by year's
    >end. :) "


    Well Panansonic already came up with a PC drive that burns Blu-ray but
    PLAYS both Blu-ray and HD-DVD, so I expect to see dual format players
    hitting shelves in the future too.... Hopefully from good companies
    too.
    Jonathan Brisby, Nov 8, 2006
    #13
  14. Jonathan Brisby wrote:
    >
    >>What kept me from listening to the devil on that shoulder was the angel
    >>on the other shoulder saying--
    >>"They're cracking...They're CRACK-IIING...Just tighten the poor-sales
    >>screws a *little* more until after the next Consumer Electronics show,
    >>and we'll see those dual-format players and bipartisan studios by year's
    >>end. :) "

    >
    > Well Panansonic already came up with a PC drive that burns Blu-ray but
    > PLAYS both Blu-ray and HD-DVD, so I expect to see dual format players
    > hitting shelves in the future too.... Hopefully from good companies
    > too.


    There's *rumors* that Apple may strike the first draft-dodger victory in
    the war (and on the desktop front, where nobody has to buy the stupid
    hardware--that's how DVD first took hold) but no confirmation yet:
    http://www.pvrwire.com/2006/10/24/apple-to-support-both-hd-dvd-and-blu-ray/

    But considering that Apple's Quicktime already incorporates a key
    Blu-Ray ingredient, and Steve's been pushing Quicktime Hi-Def and
    monitors since before we cared, it's a pretty good rumor... :)

    Derek Janssen
    Derek Janssen, Nov 8, 2006
    #14
  15. Impmon

    Guest

    rob wrote:
    > This reminds me of when digital audio was getting popular and
    > many bozos were saying that they could hear the bits and that it
    > would never work.


    Not just 'bozos' but well established 'sound experts' were saying it. I
    wonder, could it have been because back then D/A converters were of
    lesser quality?
    Golitely
    , Nov 11, 2006
    #15
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