Linux will have 20% of desktop market share by....omigod, now?!?

Discussion in 'NZ Computing' started by impossible, Apr 9, 2008.

  1. impossible

    impossible Guest

    Remember the last Golden Age of Fanboy Optimism?

    14 August 2003:

    "One of the world's largest IT companies is declaring that the Linux desktop
    will capture 20% of the market for desktop computers in large enterprises
    within 5 years. Siemens Business Systems, the $6 billion global IT
    consulting and outsourcing company, has conducted extensive testing with
    real-world, non-technical workers and is declaring that Linux has matured as
    a desktop and will quickly vault to the #2 most-installed OS in the world.
    Senior program manager Duncan McNutt, who has overseen Siemens's testing of
    Linux desktops with users and administrators in enterprise settings,
    believes that Linux will grow quickly as a desktop OS because it can deliver
    equal productivity at significantly lower costs than Windows in very large
    enterprise environments -- installations of 4,000 to 40,000 desktops."

    http://www.linux.com/articles/30873

    Ok, so this never quite worked out -- Linux remains short on share in the
    enterprise market by 19.39% (give or take). But at least people were
    thinking big back then. Now, it's all about a race to the bottom of the wEee
    hardware pile, where the advocate community hopes against hope that
    Microsoft can't be bothered going. That's pretty sad.
     
    impossible, Apr 9, 2008
    #1
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  2. impossible

    impossible Guest

    "frederick" <> wrote in message
    news:1207702189.490194@ftpsrv1...
    > impossible wrote:
    >> Remember the last Golden Age of Fanboy Optimism?
    >>
    >> 14 August 2003:
    >>
    >> "One of the world's largest IT companies is declaring that the Linux
    >> desktop will capture 20% of the market for desktop computers in large
    >> enterprises within 5 years. Siemens Business Systems, the $6 billion
    >> global IT consulting and outsourcing company, has conducted extensive
    >> testing with real-world, non-technical workers and is declaring that
    >> Linux has matured as a desktop and will quickly vault to the #2
    >> most-installed OS in the world. Senior program manager Duncan McNutt, who
    >> has overseen Siemens's testing of Linux desktops with users and
    >> administrators in enterprise settings, believes that Linux will grow
    >> quickly as a desktop OS because it can deliver equal productivity at
    >> significantly lower costs than Windows in very large enterprise
    >> environments -- installations of 4,000 to 40,000 desktops."
    >>
    >> http://www.linux.com/articles/30873
    >>
    >> Ok, so this never quite worked out -- Linux remains short on share in the
    >> enterprise market by 19.39% (give or take). But at least people were
    >> thinking big back then. Now, it's all about a race to the bottom of the
    >> wEee hardware pile, where the advocate community hopes against hope that
    >> Microsoft can't be bothered going. That's pretty sad.

    > OMG. A Windoze troll!


    Nah, the article came from linux.com. Thankfully, they're honest enough to
    not have burned all their archives -- otherwise we'd never be able to put
    the wEee fantasies of your mates into perspective.
     
    impossible, Apr 9, 2008
    #2
    1. Advertising

  3. Re: Linux will have 20% of desktop market share

    In article <1207705384.966224@ftpsrv1>, frederick did write:

    > I tried to like Linux - I really did. Then I realised that my
    > XP machine just worked better - and without any effort.


    What are you going to do after June, when Microsoft stops selling XP, then?
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, Apr 9, 2008
    #3
  4. impossible

    impossible Guest

    "thingy" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    > impossible wrote:
    >> Remember the last Golden Age of Fanboy Optimism?
    >>
    >> 14 August 2003:
    >>
    >> "One of the world's largest IT companies is declaring that the Linux
    >> desktop will capture 20% of the market for desktop computers in large
    >> enterprises within 5 years. Siemens Business Systems, the $6 billion
    >> global IT consulting and outsourcing company, has conducted extensive
    >> testing with real-world, non-technical workers and is declaring that
    >> Linux has matured as a desktop and will quickly vault to the #2
    >> most-installed OS in the world. Senior program manager Duncan McNutt,

    >
    > McNutt........I could say, says it all really. technically he is right
    > though, there is no technical reason why Linux could not be used in many
    > areas at a lower cost.
    >


    Judging by the choices that businesses have made over the last 5 years, I
    really do think that the question of Linux's cost-effectivenes on the
    desktop has been asked and answered to the satisfaction of almost everyone.
    Technically, yes, there's no reason why it couldn't be otherwise -- but
    maybe it's high time open-source developers stopped playing the victim card
    vis-a-vis Microsft and started flat-out developing better products that gave
    buyers a compelling reason to make different choices.

    > who has overseen Siemens's testing of
    >> Linux desktops with users and administrators in enterprise settings,
    >> believes that Linux will grow quickly as a desktop OS because it can
    >> deliver equal productivity at significantly lower costs than Windows in
    >> very large enterprise environments -- installations of 4,000 to 40,000
    >> desktops."
    >>
    >> http://www.linux.com/articles/30873

    >
    > Those of us who use Linux know full well its more than capable for much
    > desktop work. The fact that it has not grown substantially is somewhat
    > mystifying on the face of it....Until you look at the politics and money
    > deals involved discouraging large enterprises to move. Then throw in the
    > apathy and lack of care/interest of many IT departments. Deals outsourcers
    > do with vendors to form "partnerships" which does little but fleece their
    > own customers....users who are afraid to move to anything new, easily
    > pirated 2000/XP giving zero cost v zero cost....
    >


    Linux has the richest IT company in the world -- IBM -- squarely behind it.
    Not to mention the most potent viral marketing apparatus the business world
    has ever seen. It's failure on the desktop has nothing to do with being
    out-gunned and everything to do with being out-developed. Now, either
    there's an inherent problem with the free software business model that
    inhibits serious innovation, or the people responsible for leading the
    various projects just aren't trying hard enough. I don't know. But stop
    blaming cutomers for turning to the proprietary vendors time and again to
    deliver what they need.

    >> Ok, so this never quite worked out -- Linux remains short on share in the
    >> enterprise market by 19.39% (give or take).

    > But at least people were
    >> thinking big back then. Now, it's all about a race to the bottom of the
    >> wEee hardware pile, where the advocate community hopes against hope that
    >> Microsoft can't be bothered going. That's pretty sad.

    >
    > and yet MS seems to be trying to get there with XP on the EEE, and
    > "alternatives" to the one laptop per child project, or the Nigerian scam
    > they tried on.....as for small there is huge competition and angst from MS
    > for the cell phone market...does not mean its valueless.
    >


    These markets are all potentially lucrative. But no one has yet put together
    the winning hardware/software combination, which is why so many customers
    are continually experimenting with what's on offer. That's another opening
    for Linux developers that will be squandered if the whole strategy becomes
    one of trying to low-ball Microsoft rather than out-develop them.
     
    impossible, Apr 9, 2008
    #4
  5. impossible

    EMB Guest

    thingy wrote:
    > Those of us who use Linux know full well its more than capable for much
    > desktop work. The fact that it has not grown substantially is somewhat
    > mystifying on the face of it....Until you look at the politics and money
    > deals involved discouraging large enterprises to move. Then throw in the
    > apathy and lack of care/interest of many IT departments.


    Not to mention the number of mature vertical market applications that
    won't run under anything except Windows.
     
    EMB, Apr 9, 2008
    #5
  6. Re: Linux will have 20% of desktop market share

    In article <>, whoisthis did
    write:

    > In article <fthhsv$4js$>,
    > Lawrence D'Oliveiro <_zealand> wrote:
    >
    >> In article <1207705384.966224@ftpsrv1>, frederick did write:
    >>
    >> > I tried to like Linux - I really did. Then I realised that my
    >> > XP machine just worked better - and without any effort.

    >>
    >> What are you going to do after June, when Microsoft stops selling XP,
    >> then?

    >
    > keep using it.... here's the shocker, XP will just keep working , it has
    > no expiration date.


    *cough* Dimdows Genuine Disadvantage server "outage" *cough* ...
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, Apr 9, 2008
    #6
  7. impossible

    J Brockley Guest

    I've always been fairly ambivalent re OS and when asked to put together a
    cheap PC for someone's Grandparents I thought Linux. Right price and ideal
    for simple email and browsing needs.
    And despite input from Linux detractors like D'Olivero I decided to give it
    a go.

    All I can say its a long time since I've sworn so much. As you can perhaps
    guess given the target I was aiming for a dial up connection was the
    selected connection method.
    I had enough forethought to realise a winmodem was out and spent some time
    to find a real one.
    Next I started with a Ubantu 7.04 and it all went well until I went to set
    up the modem. Worked out how setup the modem but couldn't get it to work and
    checks on google didn't seem to help.
    Next tried Fedora 8 its later so must be better. I don't know what I did the
    first couple of times but I needed to unmount a tty OK?, no Back or Cancel
    just ever repeating OK?
    Third time lucky, why I don't know but I blame myself though not sure why.
    With a bit of google got modem installed and working. Of course its bleeding
    obvious that s0 is com port 1 and you have to have a minimum initialization
    string of ATZ everybody knows that.
    Next was how to cause it to dial up. Didn't take too long, a thing called
    Modem Lights, great we're away now. Installed and away we go, not!. "pppon
    not found"
    Back to google but can't find or get working items referred to.
    In the end unfortunately lifes too short and XP was in fact cheaper maybe
    not $ wise but timewise. XP up and running, AVG installed in under an hour,
    done and dusted.

    Unfortunately at the end of the day I can sorta see why it sits at under 1%
    uptake even if it is superior under the hood.
     
    J Brockley, Apr 9, 2008
    #7
  8. impossible

    Will Spencer Guest

    Re: Linux will have 20% of desktop market share

    On Wed, 09 Apr 2008 17:41:44 +1200, whoisthis wrote:

    > In article <fthhsv$4js$>,
    > Lawrence D'Oliveiro <_zealand> wrote:
    >
    >> In article <1207705384.966224@ftpsrv1>, frederick did write:
    >>
    >>> I tried to like Linux - I really did. Then I realised that my
    >>> XP machine just worked better - and without any effort.

    >>
    >> What are you going to do after June, when Microsoft stops selling XP, then?

    >
    > keep using it.... here's the shocker, XP will just keep working , it has
    > no expiration date.


    I've used Vista 64bit edition from day one. By far the best, most stable
    and safest OS I have ever used.

    -ws
     
    Will Spencer, Apr 9, 2008
    #8
  9. impossible

    impossible Guest

    "Allistar" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    > Max Burke wrote:
    >
    >>> SCLC wrote:

    >>
    >>>> On Wed, 09 Apr 2008 05:08:18 +0000, impossible wrote:
    >>>> but
    >>>> maybe it's high time open-source developers stopped playing the victim
    >>>> card vis-a-vis Microsft and started flat-out developing better products
    >>>> that gave buyers a compelling reason to make different choices.

    >>
    >>> In your personal opinion, what specific applications require improvement
    >>> before that application becomes a "compelling reason to make different
    >>> choices"?

    >>
    >> Gee that's a hard one.....
    >>
    >> Let's see, how about ALL the Linux equivalents of all the Microsoft/Third
    >> party/shareware/freeware windows applications that the vast majority of
    >> computer users world wide use on a daily basis to play, work, and just
    >> USE
    >> their computers for what they're meant to be used for. *computing*

    >
    > I made the switch over 5 years ago and haven't looked back. I find little
    > flaws in the software I use, and I've made modifications that have been
    > contributed back to the community too.
    >


    That's adorable. I have an aunt who does quilts -- she sells some and
    donates others to the Sallies.

    >> Linux is only free if your time is worthless.

    >
    > You are thinking "free" in monetary terms. The "freedom" of open source
    > software isn't only about cost.
    > --


    No, apparently it's a whole ideological church kind of thing.

    http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/osrc/article.php/3733286

    Did you know that you could get a good telling off from the GNU/Linux police
    for installing propietary video drivers on your machine? Even if those
    drivers were considered by one and all to be technically superior?
     
    impossible, Apr 10, 2008
    #9
  10. impossible

    impossible Guest

    "Allistar" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    > impossible wrote:
    >
    >> "Allistar" <> wrote in message
    >> news:...
    >>> Max Burke wrote:
    >>>
    >>>>> SCLC wrote:
    >>>>
    >>>>>> On Wed, 09 Apr 2008 05:08:18 +0000, impossible wrote:
    >>>>>> but
    >>>>>> maybe it's high time open-source developers stopped playing the
    >>>>>> victim
    >>>>>> card vis-a-vis Microsft and started flat-out developing better
    >>>>>> products that gave buyers a compelling reason to make different
    >>>>>> choices.
    >>>>
    >>>>> In your personal opinion, what specific applications require
    >>>>> improvement before that application becomes a "compelling reason to
    >>>>> make different choices"?
    >>>>
    >>>> Gee that's a hard one.....
    >>>>
    >>>> Let's see, how about ALL the Linux equivalents of all the
    >>>> Microsoft/Third party/shareware/freeware windows applications that the
    >>>> vast majority of computer users world wide use on a daily basis to
    >>>> play,
    >>>> work, and just USE
    >>>> their computers for what they're meant to be used for. *computing*
    >>>
    >>> I made the switch over 5 years ago and haven't looked back. I find
    >>> little
    >>> flaws in the software I use, and I've made modifications that have been
    >>> contributed back to the community too.

    >>
    >> That's adorable. I have an aunt who does quilts -- she sells some and
    >> donates others to the Sallies.

    >
    > Unless she does it using a computer I hardly see the relevance.


    It's a Windows program, I'm afraid.

    http://www.quiltbus.com/electric-quilt.htm

    > On the other
    > hand, my reply was relevant - it showed that there are people using Linux
    > on their computers on a daily basis to play, work and just USE their
    > computers for what they're meant to be used for. *computing*.
    >


    Well, good. So then there's one person we know about in that category.

    >>>> Linux is only free if your time is worthless.
    >>>
    >>> You are thinking "free" in monetary terms. The "freedom" of open source
    >>> software isn't only about cost.
    >>> --

    >>
    >> No, apparently it's a whole ideological church kind of thing.
    >>
    >> http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/osrc/article.php/3733286
    >>
    >> Did you know that you could get a good telling off from the GNU/Linux
    >> police for installing propietary video drivers on your machine? Even if
    >> those drivers were considered by one and all to be technically superior?

    >
    > Wouldn't know about that - I use the right tools for the job (and in my
    > case, that include the proprietary NVidia drivers and other proprietary
    > software).
    > --
     
    impossible, Apr 10, 2008
    #10
  11. impossible

    Will Spencer Guest

    On Thu, 10 Apr 2008 13:54:54 +1200, Allistar wrote:

    > Max Burke wrote:
    >
    >>> SCLC wrote:

    >>
    >>>> On Wed, 09 Apr 2008 05:08:18 +0000, impossible wrote:
    >>>> but
    >>>> maybe it's high time open-source developers stopped playing the victim
    >>>> card vis-a-vis Microsft and started flat-out developing better products
    >>>> that gave buyers a compelling reason to make different choices.

    >>
    >>> In your personal opinion, what specific applications require improvement
    >>> before that application becomes a "compelling reason to make different
    >>> choices"?

    >>
    >> Gee that's a hard one.....
    >>
    >> Let's see, how about ALL the Linux equivalents of all the Microsoft/Third
    >> party/shareware/freeware windows applications that the vast majority of
    >> computer users world wide use on a daily basis to play, work, and just USE
    >> their computers for what they're meant to be used for. *computing*

    >
    > I made the switch over 5 years ago and haven't looked back. I find little
    > flaws in the software I use, and I've made modifications that have been
    > contributed back to the community too.


    Too bad you're in the vast minority.

    >> Linux is only free if your time is worthless.

    >
    > You are thinking "free" in monetary terms. The "freedom" of open source
    > software isn't only about cost.


    Open source is a con. I don't want to see code as much as I don't what to
    see my car engine. It just works, retard!

    -ws
     
    Will Spencer, Apr 10, 2008
    #11
  12. impossible

    Will Spencer Guest

    On Thu, 10 Apr 2008 10:04:55 +1200, Allistar wrote:

    > Bobs wrote:
    >
    >> EMB wrote:
    >>> thingy wrote:
    >>>> Those of us who use Linux know full well its more than capable for
    >>>> much desktop work. The fact that it has not grown substantially is
    >>>> somewhat mystifying on the face of it....Until you look at the
    >>>> politics and money deals involved discouraging large enterprises to
    >>>> move. Then throw in the apathy and lack of care/interest of many IT
    >>>> departments.
    >>>
    >>> Not to mention the number of mature vertical market applications that
    >>> won't run under anything except Windows.

    >>
    >> And don't forget the costs to switch to a linux based desktop environment.
    >>
    >> What the linux fanboys don't seem to get is that the $100 or so it costs
    >> to dump XP on a workstation is far cheaper than the "Free" linux OS that
    >> no one knows how to use, and that has no software for it. People getting
    >> paid $30/hr will quickly eat up that saved $100 in lost productivity and
    >> training issues.

    >
    > Funny - I use Linux for the opposite reason: my productivity has increased.
    > I personally find it easier to use and much easier to configure.


    The problem is most people find it worse to use and worse to configure and
    become less productive using it. It's a con basically. That's why it's gone
    no where in the desktop market after all these years (or is it decades
    now?)

    -ws
     
    Will Spencer, Apr 10, 2008
    #12
  13. Re: Linux will have 20% of desktop market share

    In article <y5g5ms2vrknr$>, Will Spencer did
    write:

    > I don't want to see code as much as I don't what to see my car engine.


    <http://wlug.org.nz/SealedBonnetFallacy>
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, Apr 10, 2008
    #13
  14. Re: Linux will have 20% of desktop market share

    In article <>, Will Spencer did
    write:

    > The problem is most people find it worse to use and worse to configure and
    > become less productive using it.


    No, it's Windows that suffers from rot and gets worse and worse over time.
    Linux doesn't.

    > It's a con basically. That's why it's
    > gone no where in the desktop market after all these years (or is it
    > decades now?)


    Ah, you haven't been keeping up with the latest developments, then. Heard of
    the Asus Eee? It's expected to sell 3-5 million units this year alone, most
    of them with Linux, not Windows, preinstalled. And competitors are
    scrambling to launch their own products into this space
    <http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2008/04/09/dell_readies_eee_rival/>
    <http://eupeople.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=487>
    <http://eeepc.itrunsonlinux.com/the-news/1-latest-news/54-jisus-a-new-eee-pc-clone>.
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, Apr 10, 2008
    #14
  15. Re: Linux will have 20% of desktop market share

    In article <47fdd54f$>, Max Burke did write:

    > The subject of this thread is:
    >
    > Linux will have 20% of desktop market share by... sometime in the
    > infinite future and in an alternative reality.


    It's already achieved a majority share in the growing budget ultralight
    market. Where Microsoft is struggling to avoid sliding completely into
    irrelevance.
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, Apr 10, 2008
    #15
  16. impossible

    Mutlley Guest

    Re: Linux will have 20% of desktop market share

    Will Spencer <> wrote:

    >On Wed, 09 Apr 2008 17:41:44 +1200, whoisthis wrote:
    >
    >> In article <fthhsv$4js$>,
    >> Lawrence D'Oliveiro <_zealand> wrote:
    >>
    >>> In article <1207705384.966224@ftpsrv1>, frederick did write:
    >>>
    >>>> I tried to like Linux - I really did. Then I realised that my
    >>>> XP machine just worked better - and without any effort.
    >>>
    >>> What are you going to do after June, when Microsoft stops selling XP, then?

    >>
    >> keep using it.... here's the shocker, XP will just keep working , it has
    >> no expiration date.

    >
    >I've used Vista 64bit edition from day one. By far the best, most stable
    >and safest OS I have ever used.
    >
    >-ws

    Got any 64bit apps to run on it??
     
    Mutlley, Apr 10, 2008
    #16
  17. Re: Linux will have 20% of desktop market share

    In article <152xlnxew6231.aj6p4thi6qr4$>, Will Spencer did
    write:

    > I've used Vista 64bit edition from day one. By far the best, most stable
    > and safest OS I have ever used.


    How do you handle sites using Adobe Flash?
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, Apr 11, 2008
    #17
  18. impossible

    impossible Guest

    "thingy" <thing@/dev/null> wrote in message news:47fec416$...
    > Bobs wrote:
    >> impossible wrote:
    >>> Remember the last Golden Age of Fanboy Optimism?
    >>>
    >>> 14 August 2003:
    >>>
    >>> "One of the world's largest IT companies is declaring that the Linux
    >>> desktop will capture 20% of the market for desktop computers in large
    >>> enterprises within 5 years. Siemens Business Systems, the $6 billion
    >>> global IT consulting and outsourcing company, has conducted extensive
    >>> testing with real-world, non-technical workers and is declaring that
    >>> Linux has matured as a desktop and will quickly vault to the #2
    >>> most-installed OS in the world. Senior program manager Duncan McNutt,
    >>> who has overseen Siemens's testing of Linux desktops with users and
    >>> administrators in enterprise settings, believes that Linux will grow
    >>> quickly as a desktop OS because it can deliver equal productivity at
    >>> significantly lower costs than Windows in very large enterprise
    >>> environments -- installations of 4,000 to 40,000 desktops."
    >>>
    >>> http://www.linux.com/articles/30873
    >>>
    >>> Ok, so this never quite worked out -- Linux remains short on share in
    >>> the enterprise market by 19.39% (give or take). But at least people
    >>> were thinking big back then. Now, it's all about a race to the bottom of
    >>> the wEee hardware pile, where the advocate community hopes against hope
    >>> that Microsoft can't be bothered going. That's pretty sad.
    >>>

    >>
    >> LOL. I wonder how much money these "consultants" were paid back then?
    >> What a joke.
    >>
    >> Here's my prediction for free, and no doubt more accurate.
    >>
    >> Linux will have at most 1% market share in 2013.

    >
    > I wouldn't bet that way myself...however I cant even begin to guess where
    > it will be.....and to be honest I dont think anyone can.
    >


    Really?! So Linux's flat-line growth trend over the past 5 years tells you
    nothing?

    > Some of the more interesting criteria are when will MS be able to
    > effectively stop pirating on a large scale...


    > Some of the interesting statistics to throw in is Asia surpassing the US
    > in desktop numbers....now as long as "free" XP/Vista is competing with
    > free Linux in Asia (or even the 3rd world generally) Linux is going to
    > have a hard time.....ie even an OEM cost to someone on a pittance is a
    > huge sum....MS might not think that, but then I am not surprised...
    >


    Bottom-feeding has never been good for any business. What makes you think
    this is such a great strategy for Linux?
     
    impossible, Apr 11, 2008
    #18
  19. impossible

    impossible Guest

    "thingy" <thing@/dev/null> wrote in message news:47ff0147$...
    > impossible wrote:
    >> "thingy" <thing@/dev/null> wrote in message
    >> news:47fec416$...
    >>> Bobs wrote:
    >>>> impossible wrote:
    >>>>> Remember the last Golden Age of Fanboy Optimism?
    >>>>>
    >>>>> 14 August 2003:
    >>>>>
    >>>>> "One of the world's largest IT companies is declaring that the Linux
    >>>>> desktop will capture 20% of the market for desktop computers in large
    >>>>> enterprises within 5 years. Siemens Business Systems, the $6 billion
    >>>>> global IT consulting and outsourcing company, has conducted extensive
    >>>>> testing with real-world, non-technical workers and is declaring that
    >>>>> Linux has matured as a desktop and will quickly vault to the #2
    >>>>> most-installed OS in the world. Senior program manager Duncan McNutt,
    >>>>> who has overseen Siemens's testing of Linux desktops with users and
    >>>>> administrators in enterprise settings, believes that Linux will grow
    >>>>> quickly as a desktop OS because it can deliver equal productivity at
    >>>>> significantly lower costs than Windows in very large enterprise
    >>>>> environments -- installations of 4,000 to 40,000 desktops."
    >>>>>
    >>>>> http://www.linux.com/articles/30873
    >>>>>
    >>>>> Ok, so this never quite worked out -- Linux remains short on share in
    >>>>> the enterprise market by 19.39% (give or take). But at least people
    >>>>> were thinking big back then. Now, it's all about a race to the bottom
    >>>>> of the wEee hardware pile, where the advocate community hopes against
    >>>>> hope that Microsoft can't be bothered going. That's pretty sad.
    >>>>>
    >>>> LOL. I wonder how much money these "consultants" were paid back then?
    >>>> What a joke.
    >>>>
    >>>> Here's my prediction for free, and no doubt more accurate.
    >>>>
    >>>> Linux will have at most 1% market share in 2013.
    >>> I wouldn't bet that way myself...however I cant even begin to guess
    >>> where it will be.....and to be honest I dont think anyone can.
    >>>

    >>
    >> Really?! So Linux's flat-line growth trend over the past 5 years tells
    >> you nothing?

    >
    > Looking at the past does not necessarily predict the future.
    >


    Not necessarily, no. But doggedly refusing to take a consiistently dismal
    past performance record into consideration is just silly. What are you
    holding out for? A miracle?

    > Flatline in desktops maybe...certainly not flat line in the server space.
    >


    Flatline in desktops absolutely -- well, some there are some estimates that
    suggest desktop Linux use actually peaked in 1998. As for server space,
    linux replaceents for unix are just about exhausted. Now where's your growth
    going to come from? RedHat's value has been dropping for 2 years. Novell has
    to partner with Microsoft to remain competitive. But, fine, let's just
    ignore all of that -- everything's just fine in LinuxLand.

    > If I blindly look at the figures....like I said if you can buy XP for $2
    > on some stand in a 3rd world country, or you can buy Linux for pretty much
    > the same cost....
    >


    Linux is a free download with no restrictions whatsoever and STILL no one
    wants to use it.

    > If you as a company are prepared to lie, cheat, bribe or corrupt anyone
    > and everyone to your bidding.....
    >


    As we know from the fight over OOXML, IBM and Microsoft are very competitive
    in that arena.

    > If we look at the capabilities of Linux to do the job, it can do much if
    > not all that is required by most people. Extend this argument further in
    > which case why does OSX have only 4%...it cant be its lack of capability,
    > its arguably better than XP and Vista if desktop experience is your
    > criteria.
    >


    Wishful thinking, I'm afraid. The market has spoken.

    >>> Some of the more interesting criteria are when will MS be able to
    >>> effectively stop pirating on a large scale...

    >>
    >>> Some of the interesting statistics to throw in is Asia surpassing the US
    >>> in desktop numbers....now as long as "free" XP/Vista is competing with
    >>> free Linux in Asia (or even the 3rd world generally) Linux is going to
    >>> have a hard time.....ie even an OEM cost to someone on a pittance is a
    >>> huge sum....MS might not think that, but then I am not surprised...
    >>>

    >>
    >> Bottom-feeding has never been good for any business. What makes you think
    >> this is such a great strategy for Linux?

    >
    > Linux is not a business.
    >
    > Sorry I dont understand your point. ie depends on what you mean by bottom
    > feeding.....commodity prices could be classed as bottom feeding....
    >


    You seem to hang all your hopes now for gaining desktop market share on
    pitching Linux to people who cannot afford Windows or OsX. That's what I
    mean by bottom-feeding. How is that a winning strategy?
     
    impossible, Apr 11, 2008
    #19
  20. impossible

    impossible Guest

    "sam" <> wrote in message news:47fff30b$...
    > impossible wrote:
    >> "thingy" <thing@/dev/null> wrote in message
    >> news:47ff0147$...
    >>> impossible wrote:
    >>>> "thingy" <thing@/dev/null> wrote in message
    >>>> news:47fec416$...
    >>>>> Bobs wrote:
    >>>>>> impossible wrote:
    >>>>>>> Remember the last Golden Age of Fanboy Optimism?
    >>>>>>>
    >>>>>>> 14 August 2003:
    >>>>>>>
    >>>>>>> "One of the world's largest IT companies is declaring that the Linux
    >>>>>>> desktop will capture 20% of the market for desktop computers in
    >>>>>>> large enterprises within 5 years. Siemens Business Systems, the $6
    >>>>>>> billion global IT consulting and outsourcing company, has conducted
    >>>>>>> extensive testing with real-world, non-technical workers and is
    >>>>>>> declaring that Linux has matured as a desktop and will quickly vault
    >>>>>>> to the #2 most-installed OS in the world. Senior program manager
    >>>>>>> Duncan McNutt, who has overseen Siemens's testing of Linux desktops
    >>>>>>> with users and administrators in enterprise settings, believes that
    >>>>>>> Linux will grow quickly as a desktop OS because it can deliver equal
    >>>>>>> productivity at significantly lower costs than Windows in very large
    >>>>>>> enterprise environments -- installations of 4,000 to 40,000
    >>>>>>> desktops."
    >>>>>>>
    >>>>>>> http://www.linux.com/articles/30873
    >>>>>>>
    >>>>>>> Ok, so this never quite worked out -- Linux remains short on share
    >>>>>>> in the enterprise market by 19.39% (give or take). But at least
    >>>>>>> people were thinking big back then. Now, it's all about a race to
    >>>>>>> the bottom of the wEee hardware pile, where the advocate community
    >>>>>>> hopes against hope that Microsoft can't be bothered going. That's
    >>>>>>> pretty sad.
    >>>>>>>
    >>>>>> LOL. I wonder how much money these "consultants" were paid back then?
    >>>>>> What a joke.
    >>>>>>
    >>>>>> Here's my prediction for free, and no doubt more accurate.
    >>>>>>
    >>>>>> Linux will have at most 1% market share in 2013.
    >>>>> I wouldn't bet that way myself...however I cant even begin to guess
    >>>>> where it will be.....and to be honest I dont think anyone can.
    >>>>>
    >>>> Really?! So Linux's flat-line growth trend over the past 5 years tells
    >>>> you nothing?
    >>> Looking at the past does not necessarily predict the future.
    >>>

    >>
    >> Not necessarily, no. But doggedly refusing to take a consiistently dismal
    >> past performance record into consideration is just silly. What are you
    >> holding out for? A miracle?
    >>
    >>> Flatline in desktops maybe...certainly not flat line in the server
    >>> space.
    >>>

    >>
    >> Flatline in desktops absolutely -- well, some there are some estimates
    >> that suggest desktop Linux use actually peaked in 1998. As for server
    >> space, linux replaceents for unix are just about exhausted. Now where's
    >> your growth going to come from? RedHat's value has been dropping for 2
    >> years. Novell has to partner with Microsoft to remain competitive. But,
    >> fine, let's just ignore all of that -- everything's just fine in
    >> LinuxLand.
    >>
    >>> If I blindly look at the figures....like I said if you can buy XP for $2
    >>> on some stand in a 3rd world country, or you can buy Linux for pretty
    >>> much the same cost....
    >>>

    >>
    >> Linux is a free download with no restrictions whatsoever and STILL no
    >> one wants to use it.
    >>
    >>> If you as a company are prepared to lie, cheat, bribe or corrupt anyone
    >>> and everyone to your bidding.....
    >>>

    >>
    >> As we know from the fight over OOXML, IBM and Microsoft are very
    >> competitive in that arena.
    >>
    >>> If we look at the capabilities of Linux to do the job, it can do much if
    >>> not all that is required by most people. Extend this argument further in
    >>> which case why does OSX have only 4%...it cant be its lack of
    >>> capability, its arguably better than XP and Vista if desktop experience
    >>> is your criteria.
    >>>

    >>
    >> Wishful thinking, I'm afraid. The market has spoken.
    >>
    >>>>> Some of the more interesting criteria are when will MS be able to
    >>>>> effectively stop pirating on a large scale...
    >>>>> Some of the interesting statistics to throw in is Asia surpassing the
    >>>>> US in desktop numbers....now as long as "free" XP/Vista is competing
    >>>>> with free Linux in Asia (or even the 3rd world generally) Linux is
    >>>>> going to have a hard time.....ie even an OEM cost to someone on a
    >>>>> pittance is a huge sum....MS might not think that, but then I am not
    >>>>> surprised...
    >>>>>
    >>>> Bottom-feeding has never been good for any business. What makes you
    >>>> think this is such a great strategy for Linux?
    >>> Linux is not a business.
    >>>
    >>> Sorry I dont understand your point. ie depends on what you mean by
    >>> bottom feeding.....commodity prices could be classed as bottom
    >>> feeding....
    >>>

    >>
    >> You seem to hang all your hopes now for gaining desktop market share on
    >> pitching Linux to people who cannot afford Windows or OsX. That's what I
    >> mean by bottom-feeding. How is that a winning strategy?

    > Ten billion ARM processor sales so far is the low end.


    No, all those cheap Linux pcs that Walmart couldn't sell are the low end.
    It's a losing strategy.

    > The x86 corporate desktop market is saturated with Windows desktops, not
    > much growth, some replacement.
    > x86 laptops evolved from destops, big displays, lots of heat,
    > electromechanical drives, using the same desktop OS, the same typewriter
    > and spreadsheet apps, more Windows, why not ?
    > Phones, media players, entertainment, navigation etc devices followed a
    > different path, Microsoft had a bit of a go at it, but Symbian based units
    > outsell them 4 to 1. It turns out people aren't that concerned that their
    > phone / notepad should run the same OS as their desktop. The Psion wins.
    > Now there is a gap between the phone screen wallet sized device, and the
    > folio briefcase sized laptop device that you need a table to use and a
    > plug nearby because the battery life sucks.
    > As Larry points out the Atom and Via low power consumption platforms and
    > solid state storage have converged so there is going to be some low cost
    > paperback book sized devices to used on the move. And at the moment Linux
    > seems to be the first choice of OS.


    Are you trying to credit Linux now with every **hardware** innovation? No
    attempt to market a "Linux-powered" device has ever succeeded. Consumers
    just aren't interested. If it's buried in the firmware, or otherwise
    inconspiciuous -- fine -- but it's certainly not a selling point.

    > Thats a winning strategy for the manufacturers and embedded distribution
    > developers.
    >


    Only if the products actually sell. Linux on the Eee has not. And neither
    have any of the other cheap linux devices you and larry keep promoting.
     
    impossible, Apr 12, 2008
    #20
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