How fast will video card prices drop?

Discussion in 'Computer Information' started by Scott Gardner, May 29, 2004.

  1. This is a question for all the video card fanatics, the ones that
    change video cards *really* often:

    I've decided to get either an ATI 9800XT or the Nvidia 5950 Ultra.
    These are the current top-end models, and go for about $500 in the
    stores, or about $375 online.

    I know that ATI is about to release the X800 in June or July, and
    Nvidia is going to release the 6800 at about the same time.

    What I'm curious about is how quickly I can expect the prices for the
    9800/5950 to drop once they're no longer the flagship models, and
    where you think the prices for the 9800 and 5950 will end up once the
    dust settles and the X800/6800 have been available for a few months.

    From past history, do you think the 5950/9800 will end up in the
    $250-$350 range, and if so, how long should I wait for this to happen?

    I don't mind paying the money, but I'd feel silly buying the 9800 or
    5950 when they hit $300, only to have them be $200 (or less) a month
    later.

    Thanks for any advice. My current card is a GeForce 3, so I obviously
    don't update often enough to have a feel for the pricing trends.

    Scott Gardner
     
    Scott Gardner, May 29, 2004
    #1
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  2. Scott Gardner

    Jerry G. Guest

    The industry is changing all the time. It is possible that the new cards may
    be higher priced, and therefore the card you want would still be the same
    price. Only the manufacture of their card would be able to answer this
    question. Infact, if this was accurately predicable, there are some
    investors that would be able to become wealthy overnight.

    I would suggest you get what you want when you want it. It is best to take
    in to consideration the use of the device you buy, rather than the cost
    alone. This industry is changing constantly, and very shortly after you make
    a purchase, there will be a new version of what you bought in very short
    time.

    --

    Jerry G.
    =====


    "Scott Gardner" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    This is a question for all the video card fanatics, the ones that
    change video cards *really* often:

    I've decided to get either an ATI 9800XT or the Nvidia 5950 Ultra.
    These are the current top-end models, and go for about $500 in the
    stores, or about $375 online.

    I know that ATI is about to release the X800 in June or July, and
    Nvidia is going to release the 6800 at about the same time.

    What I'm curious about is how quickly I can expect the prices for the
    9800/5950 to drop once they're no longer the flagship models, and
    where you think the prices for the 9800 and 5950 will end up once the
    dust settles and the X800/6800 have been available for a few months.

    From past history, do you think the 5950/9800 will end up in the
    $250-$350 range, and if so, how long should I wait for this to happen?

    I don't mind paying the money, but I'd feel silly buying the 9800 or
    5950 when they hit $300, only to have them be $200 (or less) a month
    later.

    Thanks for any advice. My current card is a GeForce 3, so I obviously
    don't update often enough to have a feel for the pricing trends.

    Scott Gardner
     
    Jerry G., May 29, 2004
    #2
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  3. Scott Gardner

    Thor Guest

    "Scott Gardner" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    > This is a question for all the video card fanatics, the ones that
    > change video cards *really* often:
    >
    > I've decided to get either an ATI 9800XT or the Nvidia 5950 Ultra.
    > These are the current top-end models, and go for about $500 in the
    > stores, or about $375 online.
    >
    > I know that ATI is about to release the X800 in June or July, and
    > Nvidia is going to release the 6800 at about the same time.
    >
    > What I'm curious about is how quickly I can expect the prices for the
    > 9800/5950 to drop once they're no longer the flagship models, and
    > where you think the prices for the 9800 and 5950 will end up once the
    > dust settles and the X800/6800 have been available for a few months.
    >
    > From past history, do you think the 5950/9800 will end up in the
    > $250-$350 range, and if so, how long should I wait for this to happen?
    >
    > I don't mind paying the money, but I'd feel silly buying the 9800 or
    > 5950 when they hit $300, only to have them be $200 (or less) a month
    > later.


    It's a complex situation, because the industry is gearing up for a rapid
    switchover from AGP to PCI Express interface. AGP is going to fade into
    obsolescence. You might want to wait awhile before dropping serious coin on
    a new video card. The AGP prices overall will probably fall when PCI
    Express, and the new BTX specification takes hold.
     
    Thor, May 29, 2004
    #3
  4. On Sat, 29 May 2004 07:14:34 -0400, "Jerry G." <>
    wrote:

    >The industry is changing all the time. It is possible that the new cards may
    >be higher priced, and therefore the card you want would still be the same
    >price. Only the manufacture of their card would be able to answer this
    >question. Infact, if this was accurately predicable, there are some
    >investors that would be able to become wealthy overnight.


    Thanks for the reply. The retail price points for the new AT X800 and
    Nvidia 6800 cards have already been announced, and they're priced at
    exactly the same point at the current 9800 XT and 5950 Ultra cards.

    So, the question isn't *whether* the prices for the current cards will
    drop when the new cards are released, it's *when* will they drop, and
    how much?

    Video cards are a weird market that doesn't have a lot of gradiation
    in the pricing. There are the "top-dog" cards that have always gone
    for $500-600, then there are the high-performance cards in the
    $200-$250 range. There's usually not much in the way of cards in
    between the two.

    The only thing I'm curious is how long it takes for a card to drop out
    of the $500 range once a new '"top dog" comes out. Does it happen
    overnight, or will CompUSA and other retail stores actually be selling
    the new ATI X800 for $500 while they continue to sell the old ATI
    9800XT for its current price of $500 as well? I find that a little
    hard to believe.

    >
    >I would suggest you get what you want when you want it. It is best to take
    >in to consideration the use of the device you buy, rather than the cost
    >alone. This industry is changing constantly, and very shortly after you make
    >a purchase, there will be a new version of what you bought in very short
    >time.



    I already know *what* I need from a graphics card - that's not my
    question. Now that I've decided I want to buy one of the current
    flagship models shortly after they're replaced by the new flagships,
    all I want to know is how long I'm going to have to wait until the
    prices stabilize.

    So here's my question again. Historically speaking, how long has it
    taken for the price a "top-dog" card to fall under $300 once it's been
    replaced by a new flagship?


    Thanks again,

    Scott Gardner
     
    Scott Gardner, May 29, 2004
    #4
  5. Scott Gardner

    Michael-NC Guest

    Just wait till ATI and nVidia release the next gen cards and then we will
    know. I wouldn't buy a 9800XT right now, I'd definitely wait. I'd expect the
    cards price to drop pretty quickly once the next gen's are solidly in all of
    the retail channels. That could be a while or it could happen right away.
    Some times, a new gen part is launched but availability is spotty or even
    rare. If that's the case, the price won't drop on what the part is
    replacing. So, it's really impossible to tell what will happen till it does.

    "Scott Gardner" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    > This is a question for all the video card fanatics, the ones that
    > change video cards *really* often:
    >
    > I've decided to get either an ATI 9800XT or the Nvidia 5950 Ultra.
    > These are the current top-end models, and go for about $500 in the
    > stores, or about $375 online.
    >
    > I know that ATI is about to release the X800 in June or July, and
    > Nvidia is going to release the 6800 at about the same time.
    >
    > What I'm curious about is how quickly I can expect the prices for the
    > 9800/5950 to drop once they're no longer the flagship models, and
    > where you think the prices for the 9800 and 5950 will end up once the
    > dust settles and the X800/6800 have been available for a few months.
    >
    > From past history, do you think the 5950/9800 will end up in the
    > $250-$350 range, and if so, how long should I wait for this to happen?
    >
    > I don't mind paying the money, but I'd feel silly buying the 9800 or
    > 5950 when they hit $300, only to have them be $200 (or less) a month
    > later.
    >
    > Thanks for any advice. My current card is a GeForce 3, so I obviously
    > don't update often enough to have a feel for the pricing trends.
    >
    > Scott Gardner
    >
    >
    >
     
    Michael-NC, May 29, 2004
    #5
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