HDDVD/Bluray: stillborn or coma

Discussion in 'DVD Video' started by Rexunrex@yahoo.com, Jan 1, 2007.

  1. Guest

    I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
    for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
    have been stillborn all along.

    There are 7 excellent reasons:

    1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
    playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.

    2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
    are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
    newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
    The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
    good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
    video card, even that is useless.

    3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for it
    to be resolved.

    4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.
    Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
    image. Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD & Bluray
    hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going to spend
    a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment or a very
    good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game console.

    5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
    as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
    non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
    invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
    organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.

    6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
    bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
    of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
    public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
    sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
    years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:

    http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2006/1217.html

    7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the stories
    on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB CDROM, or
    about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray conflict is
    resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:

    http://www.dvd-recordable.org/Article1415-mode=thread-order0-threshold0.phtml

    Thus, high-def discs are really a non-starter today and may never get
    off the ground, absent some innovation such as a good, reliable ripping
    program, or perhaps a cheap HDDVD burner.

    The consumer is king and he holds the cards, not the fools who invented
    the latest DRM. If industry doesn't bend over backyards and lick itself
    for the entertainment of the king, their rush for profits may have been
    a true Fool's Errand.

    Rex
     
    , Jan 1, 2007
    #1
    1. Advertising

  2. wrote:
    > I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
    > for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
    > have been stillborn all along.
    >
    > There are 7 excellent reasons:
    >
    > 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
    > playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.


    Idiot. Why develop any new technology then? If what we have is 'good enough'

    >
    > 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
    > are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
    > newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
    > The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
    > good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
    > video card, even that is useless.


    DVD cost a fortune when it forst came out. Early adopters pay through
    the nose. This is not news.
    >
    > 3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for it
    > to be resolved.


    6 months should see a clear winner emerge

    >
    > 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.
    > Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
    > image. Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD & Bluray
    > hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going to spend
    > a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment or a very
    > good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game console.


    Dickhead

    >
    > 5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
    > as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
    > non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
    > invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
    > organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.


    Nonsense

    >
    > 6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
    > bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
    > of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
    > public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
    > sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
    > years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:
    >
    > http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2006/1217.html


    Wow, I'm convinced

    >
    > 7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the stories
    > on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB CDROM, or
    > about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray conflict is
    > resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:


    Vapourware.

    >
    > http://www.dvd-recordable.org/Article1415-mode=thread-order0-threshold0.phtml
    >
    > Thus, high-def discs are really a non-starter today and may never get
    > off the ground, absent some innovation such as a good, reliable ripping
    > program, or perhaps a cheap HDDVD burner.
    >
    > The consumer is king and he holds the cards, not the fools who invented
    > the latest DRM. If industry doesn't bend over backyards and lick itself
    > for the entertainment of the king, their rush for profits may have been
    > a true Fool's Errand.
    >
    > Rex
    >
     
    Dr. GroundAxe, Jan 1, 2007
    #2
    1. Advertising

  3. ZR Guest

    >I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
    > for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
    > have been stillborn all along.
    >
    > There are 7 excellent reasons:


    Here is another reason:

    Unlike DVD and VHS, most technologies used in HDDVD/BR are patented and
    proprietary, not in public domain. Unless they are willing to lease them
    cheaply or free, I don't think either one will become widespread like DVD
    did.
     
    ZR, Jan 1, 2007
    #3
  4. Kevin Weaver Guest

    You think DVD did not go thru the same thing as blueray/hddvd ? Look at
    DVD now. There is 3 formats. - + and dvd-ram. Back when they (DVD) 1st
    came out what were the prices for the drives ? Like 500.00 for a cheap
    one. Media cost were what 3.00-4.00 a slice ?

    Look at CDR the prices for a burner when they 1st came out were in the
    area of 500+ for a drive. Media was over 2.00ea.

    Prices will come down. They always do. It's going to take time.


    wrote:
    > I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
    > for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
    > have been stillborn all along.
    >
    > There are 7 excellent reasons:
    >
    > 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
    > playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.
    >
    > 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
    > are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
    > newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
    > The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
    > good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
    > video card, even that is useless.
    >
    > 3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for it
    > to be resolved.
    >
    > 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.
    > Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
    > image. Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD & Bluray
    > hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going to spend
    > a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment or a very
    > good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game console.
    >
    > 5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
    > as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
    > non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
    > invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
    > organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.
    >
    > 6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
    > bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
    > of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
    > public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
    > sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
    > years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:
    >
    > http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2006/1217.html
    >
    > 7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the stories
    > on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB CDROM, or
    > about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray conflict is
    > resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:
    >
    > http://www.dvd-recordable.org/Article1415-mode=thread-order0-threshold0.phtml
    >
    > Thus, high-def discs are really a non-starter today and may never get
    > off the ground, absent some innovation such as a good, reliable ripping
    > program, or perhaps a cheap HDDVD burner.
    >
    > The consumer is king and he holds the cards, not the fools who invented
    > the latest DRM. If industry doesn't bend over backyards and lick itself
    > for the entertainment of the king, their rush for profits may have been
    > a true Fool's Errand.
    >
    > Rex
    >
     
    Kevin Weaver, Jan 1, 2007
    #4
  5. Guest

    ZR wrote:

    > Unlike DVD and VHS, most technologies used in HDDVD/BR are patented and
    > proprietary, not in public domain. Unless they are willing to lease them
    > cheaply or free, I don't think either one will become widespread like DVD
    > did.


    That's a very good point, thanks.
     
    , Jan 1, 2007
    #5
  6. Quanta Guest

    <> wrote in message
    news:...
    >
    > ZR wrote:
    >
    >> Unlike DVD and VHS, most technologies used in HDDVD/BR are patented and
    >> proprietary, not in public domain. Unless they are willing to lease them
    >> cheaply or free, I don't think either one will become widespread like DVD
    >> did.

    >
    > That's a very good point, thanks.
    >


    China adopted early VCD simply because the licenses for DVD compression were
    not public domain.
     
    Quanta, Jan 1, 2007
    #6
  7. Neck & Red Guest

    <> wrote in message
    news:...
    >I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
    > for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
    > have been stillborn all along.
    >
    > There are 7 excellent reasons:
    >
    > 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
    > playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.
    >
    > 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
    > are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
    > newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
    > The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
    > good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
    > video card, even that is useless.


    Why would the consumer want to buy a new tiny monitor and video card when
    he's got a 50" or bigger HDTV in his living room?




    > 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.


    Take the family to see 4 movies and I could have bought the HD-DVD drive for
    my Xbox along with a few movies and had enough left over for popcorn.

    Oh, and HD-DVD blows away the picture quality of a movie theater.
     
    Neck & Red, Jan 1, 2007
    #7
  8. Bobbie Guest

    While taking a break from performing an interpretive dance of 'Flight of
    the Bumble Bee', Dr. GroundAxe wrote:

    > wrote:
    >> I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
    >> for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
    >> have been stillborn all along.
    >>
    >> There are 7 excellent reasons:
    >>
    >> 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
    >> playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.

    >
    > Idiot. Why develop any new technology then? If what we have is 'good enough'



    Ummm. Except for one problem. DVD was a very noticeable improvement over
    VHS and S-VHS. HD-DVD / Blue-Ray isn't all that noticeable of an
    improvement over DVD. If marginal improvement drove innovation then S-VHS
    would have replaced VHS and Digital Compact Cassette would have replaced
    the conventional cassette.

    >
    >>
    >> 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
    >> are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
    >> newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
    >> The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
    >> good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
    >> video card, even that is useless.

    >
    > DVD cost a fortune when it forst came out. Early adopters pay through
    > the nose. This is not news.


    But again, most everyone who updated their video collection from VHS to
    DVD isn't going to run out and replace their players and DVDs just for a
    marginal at best improvement in picture and audio.


    >>
    >> 3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for it
    >> to be resolved.

    >
    > 6 months should see a clear winner emerge


    Won't be settled that quickly.

    HD is backed by Toshiba, Microsoft, NEC and Sanyo.
    Universal Studios is currently the only movie production company to solely
    back HD-DVD

    Blu-ray has of course Sony & Philips the original co-creators of Compact
    Disc as backers. Blu-ray also has Apple Computer, Panasonic.
    Dell strongly backs Blu-ray:
    http://www.dell.com/content/topics/global.aspx/innovation/en/cto_bluray?c=us&l=en&s=corp
    HP has shifted from solely supporting Blu-ray to supporting both but with
    a preference for Blu-ray
    Sony owns a movie studio. Walt Disney, MGM and 20th Century Fox are solely
    supporting Blu-ray


    >
    >>
    >> 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.
    >> Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
    >> image. Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD & Bluray
    >> hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going to spend
    >> a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment or a very
    >> good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game console.

    >
    > Dickhead


    I've only got a very few movies that picture clarity and detail are the
    centre point. Most of my movies as suitable in glorious 525 line NTSC. I
    don't feel the need to upgrade just for the sake of upgrading.

    >
    >>
    >> 5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
    >> as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
    >> non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
    >> invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
    >> organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.

    >
    > Nonsense


    Nonsense? The AACS consortium didn't even bother to realize that by coming
    up with a late to the party copy protection scheme called HDCP, they've
    practically relegated TV's like my year old Toshiba 16:9 HDMI equipped set
    to the trashbin. See, the HDMI specification has already been out for just
    over 5 years. All sorts of manufacturers have been building sets that are
    fully HDMI compliant. But now because of the AACS and their insistence of
    the modification of HDMI with the inclusion of the HDCP scheme means that
    HDMI has been broken. What's to stop these consortium's from changing
    standards mid-stream again?
    Nice thing about all of this is the coding for HDCP isn't allowed to be
    carried in flashrom or other modifiable/readable media. It must be mask
    programmed into the decoder. So again, if the consortium decides they need
    to change something in the coding, looks like you'll be outta luck.



    >
    >>
    >> 6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
    >> bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
    >> of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
    >> public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
    >> sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
    >> years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:
    >>
    >> http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2006/1217.html

    >
    > Wow, I'm convinced
    >
    >>
    >> 7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the stories
    >> on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB CDROM, or
    >> about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray conflict is
    >> resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:

    >
    > Vapourware.


    Lemme see, I can go into FutureShop today and get a 5 GB SD card for
    about $40. Two years ago a 256MB card would have cost over $100.
    I can see in 5 to 10 years flash type storage being up to 100 to 200 GB
    and selling for a lot less than what the 5GB costs today.

    Hitatchi and Toshiba both have commercially available 1TB 3.5 inch hard
    drives. I can get a 100 GB Maxtor for less than $80.00. I can see a 10TB
    hard drive on the market in less than 2 years.


    This means that the debate over DVD/HD-DVD/Blu-ray may already be a thing
    of the past.

    Can you imagine how simple movie distribution would be in the near future?
    You go to the video store with your little 20 GB SD card and the account
    card from you video player. The account card would be used to encrypt the
    movie so that the SD card is only readable and playable on the video
    player that your account card is assigned to. If copies of your movie are
    found to be floating around on the Internet, watermarks injected into the
    video and audio will enable the movie to be tracked so far back as to the
    last person who purchased the movie from an authorized stream vendor.

    If you want packaging to go with your movie for that old time authentic
    feel, these can be printed on site for a nominal fee.

    The only thing holding a scheme back at the moment is the cost of the
    media. Optical wins at the moment, but how much longer can it hold on?


    >
    >
    >> http://www.dvd-recordable.org/Article1415-mode=thread-order0-threshold0.phtml
    >>
    >> Thus, high-def discs are really a non-starter today and may never get
    >> off the ground, absent some innovation such as a good, reliable ripping
    >> program, or perhaps a cheap HDDVD burner.
    >>
    >> The consumer is king and he holds the cards, not the fools who invented
    >> the latest DRM. If industry doesn't bend over backyards and lick itself
    >> for the entertainment of the king, their rush for profits may have been
    >> a true Fool's Errand.
    >>
    >> Rex
    >>


    --
    Bobbie the Triple Killer
    http://members.shaw.ca/bobbie4/index.htm

    email Bobbie @
    remember to 'remove this'

    Bobbie recently switched to Ubuntu 6.
    Why? Cause he can, that's why.
     
    Bobbie, Jan 1, 2007
    #8
  9. Bobbie Guest

    While taking a break from performing an interpretive dance of 'Flight of
    the Bumble Bee', Neck & Red wrote:

    >
    > <> wrote in message
    > news:...
    >>I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
    >> for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
    >> have been stillborn all along.
    >>
    >> There are 7 excellent reasons:
    >>
    >> 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
    >> playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.
    >>
    >> 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
    >> are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
    >> newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
    >> The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
    >> good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
    >> video card, even that is useless.

    >
    > Why would the consumer want to buy a new tiny monitor and video card when
    > he's got a 50" or bigger HDTV in his living room?


    Uuuum, because if they bought that HDTV with HDMI input prior to February
    of 2006 they'd be SOL so far as connecting a HDCP compliant device to that
    old and now antiquated HDMI television. I'd mush rather leave the unusable
    antique hanging in the living room and just buy a decent 16:9 monitor for
    the computer. It'd be much cheaper.

    >
    >
    >
    >
    >> 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.

    >
    > Take the family to see 4 movies and I could have bought the HD-DVD drive for
    > my Xbox along with a few movies and had enough left over for popcorn.
    >
    > Oh, and HD-DVD blows away the picture quality of a movie theater.


    Conventional 35mm or 70mm film, yes. especially if it's been through the
    projector a couple of hundred times.
    IMAX, nope. Not even close.
    Digital Projection? Not even close.
    Plus I doubt that you have over 2000 watts of Dolby Digital wailing away
    in your living room.

    --
    Bobbie the Triple Killer
    http://members.shaw.ca/bobbie4/index.htm

    email Bobbie @
    remember to 'remove this'

    Bobbie recently switched to Ubuntu 6.
    Why? Cause he can, that's why.
     
    Bobbie, Jan 1, 2007
    #9
  10. wrote in
    news::

    > I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
    > for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove
    > to have been stillborn all along.
    >
    > There are 7 excellent reasons:
    >
    > 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous.
    > Even playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.


    The flaw in that comparison is that DVD did, in fact, replace VHS.
    Therefore, nothing prevents DVD from being replaced by someone else.

    > 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and
    > drive are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The
    > minority of newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this
    > technology. The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive,
    > but without a good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a
    > new monitor & video card, even that is useless.


    For the budget-minded, the hardware could be packed onto a high-end
    computer system for a bit more than list price. This is already
    happening to many OEM machines.

    > 3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for
    > it to be resolved.


    That's not a reason, it's a guess.

    > 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.


    They were also better than VHS, that didn't stop DVD. In fact, with
    more cheap theaters in operation, the difference may not be as
    noticable.

    > Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
    > image.


    Irrelevant comparison.

    >Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD &
    > Bluray hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going
    > to spend a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment
    > or a very good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game
    > console.


    What about buying 247 boxes of Twinkies? Or, try and chuck silver
    dollars into the mall fountain? You could invest in hog futures...

    Yes, you *COULD* do any number of these things, but none of them
    are relevant to the issue.

    > 5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
    > as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
    > non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
    > invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
    > organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.


    The same thing was said before DVD was cracked. Hell, Divx might even
    have been cracked eventually had anyone thought it worthwhile to do so.

    > 6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
    > bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
    > of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
    > public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
    > sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
    > years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:
    >
    > http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2006/1217.html


    I don't think the general public will lift its collective head out of
    the sand anytime soon, on this issue or any other.

    > 7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the
    > stories on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB
    > CDROM, or about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray
    > conflict is resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:


    The people that hold off on new technology won't even be concerned by
    this debate. Their very nature will keep them away for over 15 years.
    Hell, some people haven't even moved to DVD yet.

    I'm not saying that BR/HD isn't a stillborn format, but I don't think
    your examples are evidence to support that idea.


    --

    Aaron J. Bossig

    http://www.GodsLabRat.com
    http://www.dvdverdict.com
     
    Aaron J. Bossig, Jan 1, 2007
    #10
  11. Alpha Guest

    >
    > I'm not saying that BR/HD isn't a stillborn format,


    Good. Therefore your response is much ado about nothing.
     
    Alpha, Jan 1, 2007
    #11
  12. Tim Smith Guest

    In article <e30mh.6008$>,
    "ZR" <> wrote:
    > Unlike DVD and VHS, most technologies used in HDDVD/BR are patented and
    > proprietary, not in public domain. Unless they are willing to lease them
    > cheaply or free, I don't think either one will become widespread like DVD
    > did.


    Wherever did you get the notion that DVD technologies aren't patented?
    There are a slew of patents you must license to build a DVD player.
    Google if you want details.

    --
    --Tim Smith
     
    Tim Smith, Jan 1, 2007
    #12
  13. Guest

    Neck & Red wrote:

    > Why would the consumer want to buy a new tiny monitor and video card when
    > he's got a 50" or bigger HDTV in his living room?


    Most people don't have these.

    > Oh, and HD-DVD blows away the picture quality of a movie theater.


    Really? So 1920 by 1080 pixels or 1280 by 720 pixels from HDDVD
    are larger than images that are 2048, 4096 or 8192 pixels wide?
    Where did you learn math, from George Bush?
     
    , Jan 1, 2007
    #13
  14. Guest

    Aaron J. Bossig wrote:

    > The flaw in that comparison is that DVD did, in fact, replace VHS.
    > Therefore, nothing prevents DVD from being replaced by someone else.


    For most people DVD is sufficient. If they don't buy the new
    display, or have the ability to play HDDVD/Bluray on their computer,
    they will not even be familiar with any improvement that high def
    offers. No familiarity means no purchases.

    Another factor that will prevent adoption is that most people
    already have an investment in DVDs. Who knows what the
    average # of DVDs per person or household is, but I know
    people who have 100. And of course libraries and video stores
    have 1000s. So if you tell those people they're going to have
    to put out another $2000 or $20,000 respecitvely for new
    discs and they will balk. Not to mention the need to buy
    a high-def screen, the drive, and maybe a video card.
     
    , Jan 1, 2007
    #14
  15. Guest

    wrote:
    > Aaron J. Bossig wrote:
    >
    > > The flaw in that comparison is that DVD did, in fact, replace VHS.
    > > Therefore, nothing prevents DVD from being replaced by someone else.

    >
    > For most people DVD is sufficient. If they don't buy the new
    > display, or have the ability to play HDDVD/Bluray on their computer,
    > they will not even be familiar with any improvement that high def
    > offers. No familiarity means no purchases.
    >
    > Another factor that will prevent adoption is that most people
    > already have an investment in DVDs. Who knows what the
    > average # of DVDs per person or household is, but I know
    > people who have 100. And of course libraries and video stores
    > have 1000s. So if you tell those people they're going to have
    > to put out another $2000 or $20,000 respecitvely for new
    > discs and they will balk. Not to mention the need to buy
    > a high-def screen, the drive, and maybe a video card.


    I agree with most of what you say. For most people (myself included)
    DVD is more than sufficient. For those of us without the memory of a
    goldfish, DVD is still "wow." That being said, and not knowing how
    this rediculous format war will turn out, the HD formats do have a ace
    in the hole, and that is backward compatibility. If someone shelled
    out $150 for a DVD player a couple of years ago (and we've been at that
    price point or lower for awhile), and three years from now that player
    needs replaced, if an HD player is available at that price point, that
    person will likely bite. I think in that way, HD discs have a shot at
    eventually, slowly, supplanting DVD. Most people won't replace what
    they already have, as DVD's are just too durable and good as they are,
    but if they can buy a player cheap enough and and HD disc for the same
    price as a DVD, HD can take over the new releases.

    -beaumon
     
    , Jan 1, 2007
    #15
  16. Tony Morgan Guest

    In message <>,
    writes
    >
    >Neck & Red wrote:
    >
    >> Why would the consumer want to buy a new tiny monitor and video card when
    >> he's got a 50" or bigger HDTV in his living room?

    >
    >Most people don't have these.
    >
    >> Oh, and HD-DVD blows away the picture quality of a movie theater.

    >
    >Really? So 1920 by 1080 pixels or 1280 by 720 pixels from HDDVD
    >are larger than images that are 2048, 4096 or 8192 pixels wide?
    >Where did you learn math, from George Bush?
    >

    And Neck & Red seem to have the same clue as George Bush.

    My 17" 1920x1200 laptop screen viewed from between 2 and 3 feet looks
    (subject to source) far better than a 50" wall-mounted TV viewed from
    between 12 and 20 feet.

    The general public has been well and truly conned by the marketing men
    with their TV sales line of "HD-Ready". Worse, many (most?), have been
    coerced into paying top-dollar prices for HD-Ready TVs - when in a
    couple of years (when HD media/broadcast becomes more universally and
    readily available) because of economies of high-volume production
    coupled with competitive pressures, the public will be paying a fraction
    of today's prices.

    Insofar as media is concerned, double the resolution means file-size
    quadrupling - and AFAIK there's a finite amount of data that can be held
    on a DVD, so where will we be going? Two/ three DVD disks per movie?

    Digital broadcasting can ( and does) provide the bandwidth needed to
    present HD content - but DVDs? - no way.

    --
    Tony Morgan
     
    Tony Morgan, Jan 1, 2007
    #16
  17. Guest

    ZR wrote:

    > Unlike DVD and VHS, most technologies used in HDDVD/BR are patented and
    > proprietary, not in public domain. Unless they are willing to lease them


    WHAT? Do you realize that every DVD player includes approximately
    $20(*) in patent license fees from the cartel? DVD rides on a big raft
    of patents, starting with a few inherited from CD days.

    (*) - This price was accurate for China. There was a lawsuit about this
    some time ago, since the price to manufacturers in other countries was
    different. Hence, the price may have come down, but it was accurate a
    couple of years ago.

    China has developed its own hi-res video disk format (EVD) purely to
    combat the restrictive DVD patent cartel.
    <http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061206.gtchinadvd07/BNStory/Technology/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20061206.gtchinadvd07>
     
    , Jan 1, 2007
    #17
  18. <> wrote in message
    news:...
    >
    > ZR wrote:
    >
    >> Unlike DVD and VHS, most technologies used in HDDVD/BR are patented and
    >> proprietary, not in public domain. Unless they are willing to lease them

    >
    > WHAT? Do you realize that every DVD player includes approximately
    > $20(*) in patent license fees from the cartel?


    they all cant do so - given that dvd players can be purchased for about $25
    equivalent in the uk - i think some chinese factories simply ignore the
    patents.


    --
    Gareth.
    A french man who wanted a castle threw his cat into a pond.
    http://www.audioscrobbler.com/user/dsbmusic/
     
    the dog from that film you saw, Jan 1, 2007
    #18
  19. Alpha Guest

    <> wrote in message
    news:...
    >
    > wrote:
    >> Aaron J. Bossig wrote:
    >>
    >> > The flaw in that comparison is that DVD did, in fact, replace VHS.
    >> > Therefore, nothing prevents DVD from being replaced by someone else.

    >>
    >> For most people DVD is sufficient. If they don't buy the new
    >> display, or have the ability to play HDDVD/Bluray on their computer,
    >> they will not even be familiar with any improvement that high def
    >> offers. No familiarity means no purchases.
    >>
    >> Another factor that will prevent adoption is that most people
    >> already have an investment in DVDs. Who knows what the
    >> average # of DVDs per person or household is, but I know
    >> people who have 100. And of course libraries and video stores
    >> have 1000s. So if you tell those people they're going to have
    >> to put out another $2000 or $20,000 respecitvely for new
    >> discs and they will balk. Not to mention the need to buy
    >> a high-def screen, the drive, and maybe a video card.

    >
    > I agree with most of what you say. For most people (myself included)
    > DVD is more than sufficient. For those of us without the memory of a
    > goldfish, DVD is still "wow." That being said, and not knowing how
    > this rediculous format war will turn out, the HD formats do have a ace
    > in the hole, and that is backward compatibility. If someone shelled
    > out $150 for a DVD player a couple of years ago (and we've been at that
    > price point or lower for awhile), and three years from now that player
    > needs replaced, if an HD player is available at that price point, that
    > person will likely bite. I think in that way, HD discs have a shot at
    > eventually, slowly, supplanting DVD. Most people won't replace what
    > they already have, as DVD's are just too durable and good as they are,
    > but if they can buy a player cheap enough and and HD disc for the same
    > price as a DVD, HD can take over the new releases.
    >
    > -beaumon
    >


    If it takes a long time, it will fail. The next generation of video could
    well be based on direct cable or satellite transmission and stored on
    silicon (or one of the emerging new memory materials).

    Discs of all types will die out over time.
     
    Alpha, Jan 1, 2007
    #19
  20. Aaron J. Bossig wrote:
    >
    >>1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous.
    >>Even playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.

    >
    > The flaw in that comparison is that DVD did, in fact, replace VHS.
    > Therefore, nothing prevents DVD from being replaced by someone else.


    We watched VHS because we Had To. (Thus creating the archaic "Pay per
    view" idea that we download movies because we, like, want to see the
    really cool movie!)
    Once we saw DVD, it finally became okay to complain about destructible
    media, linear navigation and rewinding, standard audiovisual resolution,
    no extras, and shelf space.

    We saw DVD and wanted to wipe VHS off the face of the earth.
    We saw HD DVD and said "Cool...Does it play standard DVD's too?" :)

    Derek Janssen (and those who think "it can happen again" tend...not to
    be all that clear on how it happened the first time)
     
    Derek Janssen, Jan 1, 2007
    #20
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