HD-DVD growth will be much slower than DVD's was

Discussion in 'DVD Video' started by RichA, Dec 10, 2004.

  1. RichA

    RichA Guest

    For obvious reasons, you have to buy
    and HD compatible TV, unlike when DVD
    was released. It's even possible HD
    whatever of the two (three?) standards
    eventually wins will be a short-lived
    one anyway, replaced by something else,
    more suited to both the computer and
    movie industry. HD-DVD could be the
    "laserdisc" of the 2000s, in other
    words, a small selling niche product.
    The only way this won't happen will be
    if HD compatible TVs drop below $1000
    in price for reasonable sized models.
    -Rich
    RichA, Dec 10, 2004
    #1
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  2. RichA

    Doc_Johnson Guest

    On Thu, 09 Dec 2004 20:25:03 -0500, RichA <> wrote:

    >For obvious reasons, you have to buy
    >and HD compatible TV, unlike when DVD
    >was released.

    snipped....................
    >-Rich


    You might want to set your line length to 80 characters or so, this 40 is quite
    annoying!

    Agent or Free Agent News reader:
    Options/Posting preferences/Line length.

    Doc
    Doc_Johnson, Dec 10, 2004
    #2
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  3. RichA

    Mike Kohary Guest

    RichA wrote:
    > For obvious reasons, you have to buy
    > and HD compatible TV, unlike when DVD
    > was released. It's even possible HD
    > whatever of the two (three?) standards
    > eventually wins will be a short-lived
    > one anyway, replaced by something else,
    > more suited to both the computer and
    > movie industry. HD-DVD could be the
    > "laserdisc" of the 2000s, in other
    > words, a small selling niche product.
    > The only way this won't happen will be
    > if HD compatible TVs drop below $1000
    > in price for reasonable sized models.


    That's exactly how I see it. It seems doomed to be a niche format at best.

    --
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Mike Kohary mike at kohary dot com http://www.kohary.com

    Karma Photography: http://www.karmaphotography.com
    Seahawks Historical Database: http://www.kohary.com/seahawks
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Mike Kohary, Dec 10, 2004
    #3
  4. RichA

    3W Guest

    3W, Dec 10, 2004
    #4
  5. RichA

    Biz Guest

    "Mike Kohary" <> wrote in message
    news:cpb30f$3jd$...
    > RichA wrote:
    > > For obvious reasons, you have to buy
    > > and HD compatible TV, unlike when DVD
    > > was released. It's even possible HD
    > > whatever of the two (three?) standards
    > > eventually wins will be a short-lived
    > > one anyway, replaced by something else,
    > > more suited to both the computer and
    > > movie industry. HD-DVD could be the
    > > "laserdisc" of the 2000s, in other
    > > words, a small selling niche product.
    > > The only way this won't happen will be
    > > if HD compatible TVs drop below $1000
    > > in price for reasonable sized models.

    >
    > That's exactly how I see it. It seems doomed to be a niche format at

    best.
    >


    It seems awfully silly to doom a new format to niche b4 its even available
    commercially.
    Biz, Dec 10, 2004
    #5
  6. RichA

    Mike Kohary Guest

    Biz wrote:
    > "Mike Kohary" <> wrote in message
    > news:cpb30f$3jd$...
    >> RichA wrote:
    >>> For obvious reasons, you have to buy
    >>> and HD compatible TV, unlike when DVD
    >>> was released. It's even possible HD
    >>> whatever of the two (three?) standards
    >>> eventually wins will be a short-lived
    >>> one anyway, replaced by something else,
    >>> more suited to both the computer and
    >>> movie industry. HD-DVD could be the
    >>> "laserdisc" of the 2000s, in other
    >>> words, a small selling niche product.
    >>> The only way this won't happen will be
    >>> if HD compatible TVs drop below $1000
    >>> in price for reasonable sized models.

    >>
    >> That's exactly how I see it. It seems doomed to be a niche format
    >> at best.

    >
    > It seems awfully silly to doom a new format to niche b4 its even
    > available commercially.


    I don't really see how any HD-DVD format can quickly penetrate the
    mainstream US market. HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    household, and the difference between DVD and HD-DVD is simply not as stark
    and obvious as the numerous advantages that DVD held over VHS. There's
    going to be a format war that will confuse consumers and add to indecision
    even by knowledgable customers (like myself - I won't buy until one format
    wins out). It will require expensive new hardware, only a few short years
    after the initial introduction of the previous format, and that hardware
    will only be useful on the aforementioned HD-capable TV sets that hardly
    anyone owns. The parallels between HD-DVD and Laserdisc are glaringly
    obvious. Where is the incentive for mainstream acceptance of this new
    format?

    It's just a prognostication, but I think it's a reasonably educated guess
    amply backed up by the above reasoning. How would you back up your
    statement, or if you think I'm wrong and that HD-DVD will see fairly rapid
    mainstream acceptance, what makes you think so?

    --
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Mike Kohary mike at kohary dot com http://www.kohary.com

    Karma Photography: http://www.karmaphotography.com
    Seahawks Historical Database: http://www.kohary.com/seahawks
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Mike Kohary, Dec 10, 2004
    #6
  7. RichA

    poldy Guest

    In article <cpbaqi$ip8$>, "Mike Kohary" <>
    wrote:

    > HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    > household


    It's about 13 million or 13% of US households. 10 million more expected
    by the end of 2005.

    Over 60 million by 2008.

    That's a fair number of households, wouldn't you say?
    poldy, Dec 11, 2004
    #7
  8. RichA

    RnR Lesnar Guest

    Look how cheap DVD hardware is now compared to when it debuted. HDTV's are
    already coming down in price. I got my 42 inch sony rear projection LCD for
    under $2000. Plus, many more channels will begin broadcasting in HD in the
    next couple of years.


    --
    RnR Lesnar
    It's True, It's True- Kurt Angle
    Bush/Cheney 2004


    "Mike Kohary" <> wrote in message
    news:cpbaqi$ip8$...
    > Biz wrote:
    >> "Mike Kohary" <> wrote in message
    >> news:cpb30f$3jd$...
    >>> RichA wrote:
    >>>> For obvious reasons, you have to buy
    >>>> and HD compatible TV, unlike when DVD
    >>>> was released. It's even possible HD
    >>>> whatever of the two (three?) standards
    >>>> eventually wins will be a short-lived
    >>>> one anyway, replaced by something else,
    >>>> more suited to both the computer and
    >>>> movie industry. HD-DVD could be the
    >>>> "laserdisc" of the 2000s, in other
    >>>> words, a small selling niche product.
    >>>> The only way this won't happen will be
    >>>> if HD compatible TVs drop below $1000
    >>>> in price for reasonable sized models.
    >>>
    >>> That's exactly how I see it. It seems doomed to be a niche format
    >>> at best.

    >>
    >> It seems awfully silly to doom a new format to niche b4 its even
    >> available commercially.

    >
    > I don't really see how any HD-DVD format can quickly penetrate the
    > mainstream US market. HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    > household, and the difference between DVD and HD-DVD is simply not as
    > stark and obvious as the numerous advantages that DVD held over VHS.
    > There's going to be a format war that will confuse consumers and add to
    > indecision even by knowledgable customers (like myself - I won't buy until
    > one format wins out). It will require expensive new hardware, only a few
    > short years after the initial introduction of the previous format, and
    > that hardware will only be useful on the aforementioned HD-capable TV sets
    > that hardly anyone owns. The parallels between HD-DVD and Laserdisc are
    > glaringly obvious. Where is the incentive for mainstream acceptance of
    > this new format?
    >
    > It's just a prognostication, but I think it's a reasonably educated guess
    > amply backed up by the above reasoning. How would you back up your
    > statement, or if you think I'm wrong and that HD-DVD will see fairly rapid
    > mainstream acceptance, what makes you think so?
    >
    > --
    > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    > Mike Kohary mike at kohary dot com http://www.kohary.com
    >
    > Karma Photography: http://www.karmaphotography.com
    > Seahawks Historical Database: http://www.kohary.com/seahawks
    > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    >
    RnR Lesnar, Dec 11, 2004
    #8
  9. RichA

    luminos Guest

    "poldy" <> wrote in message
    news:p...
    > In article <cpbaqi$ip8$>, "Mike Kohary" <>
    > wrote:
    >
    >> HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    >> household

    >
    > It's about 13 million or 13% of US households. 10 million more expected


    Documentation?
    luminos, Dec 12, 2004
    #9
  10. RichA

    GMAN Guest

    In article <cpbaqi$ip8$>, "Mike Kohary" <> wrote:
    >Biz wrote:
    >> "Mike Kohary" <> wrote in message
    >> news:cpb30f$3jd$...
    >>> RichA wrote:
    >>>> For obvious reasons, you have to buy
    >>>> and HD compatible TV, unlike when DVD
    >>>> was released. It's even possible HD
    >>>> whatever of the two (three?) standards
    >>>> eventually wins will be a short-lived
    >>>> one anyway, replaced by something else,
    >>>> more suited to both the computer and
    >>>> movie industry. HD-DVD could be the
    >>>> "laserdisc" of the 2000s, in other
    >>>> words, a small selling niche product.
    >>>> The only way this won't happen will be
    >>>> if HD compatible TVs drop below $1000
    >>>> in price for reasonable sized models.
    >>>
    >>> That's exactly how I see it. It seems doomed to be a niche format
    >>> at best.

    >>
    >> It seems awfully silly to doom a new format to niche b4 its even
    >> available commercially.

    >
    >I don't really see how any HD-DVD format can quickly penetrate the
    >mainstream US market. HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    >household, and the difference between DVD and HD-DVD is simply not as stark
    >and obvious as the numerous advantages that DVD held over VHS. There's
    >going to be a format war that will confuse consumers and add to indecision
    >even by knowledgable customers (like myself - I won't buy until one format
    >wins out). It will require expensive new hardware, only a few short years
    >after the initial introduction of the previous format, and that hardware
    >will only be useful on the aforementioned HD-capable TV sets that hardly
    >anyone owns. The parallels between HD-DVD and Laserdisc are glaringly
    >obvious. Where is the incentive for mainstream acceptance of this new
    >format?
    >
    >It's just a prognostication, but I think it's a reasonably educated guess
    >amply backed up by the above reasoning. How would you back up your
    >statement, or if you think I'm wrong and that HD-DVD will see fairly rapid
    >mainstream acceptance, what makes you think so?
    >

    What pisses me off is that it is "Always" Sony that is right smack dab in the
    middle of all this format war bullshit with every new technology. Its their
    way or Fu$k all compatibility. I wish there was a standards group that had
    some teeth
    GMAN, Dec 12, 2004
    #10
  11. RichA

    GMAN Guest

    In article <>, poldy <> wrote:
    >In article <cpbaqi$ip8$>, "Mike Kohary" <>
    >wrote:
    >
    >> HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    >> household

    >
    >It's about 13 million or 13% of US households. 10 million more expected
    >by the end of 2005.
    >
    >Over 60 million by 2008.
    >
    >That's a fair number of households, wouldn't you say?

    25 million is closer to 10% of households in the USA
    GMAN, Dec 12, 2004
    #11
  12. RichA

    Guest

    On Sat, 11 Dec 2004 07:19:57 GMT, poldy <> wrote:

    >In article <cpbaqi$ip8$>, "Mike Kohary" <>
    >wrote:
    >
    >> HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    >> household

    >
    >It's about 13 million or 13% of US households. 10 million more expected
    >by the end of 2005.
    >
    >Over 60 million by 2008.
    >
    >That's a fair number of households, wouldn't you say?


    TROLL
    , Dec 12, 2004
    #12
  13. RichA

    RichA Guest

    On Sun, 12 Dec 2004 10:01:44 GMT,
    (GMAN) wrote:

    >In article <>, poldy <> wrote:
    >>In article <cpbaqi$ip8$>, "Mike Kohary" <>
    >>wrote:
    >>
    >>> HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    >>> household

    >>
    >>It's about 13 million or 13% of US households. 10 million more expected
    >>by the end of 2005.
    >>
    >>Over 60 million by 2008.
    >>
    >>That's a fair number of households, wouldn't you say?

    >25 million is closer to 10% of households in the USA


    There are 280 million people in the country.
    10% of all households would be about 10 million.
    -Rich
    RichA, Dec 12, 2004
    #13
  14. RichA

    Frank Sereno Guest

    RichA wrote:

    > On Sun, 12 Dec 2004 10:01:44 GMT,
    > (GMAN) wrote:
    >
    >
    >>In article <>, poldy <> wrote:
    >>
    >>>In article <cpbaqi$ip8$>, "Mike Kohary" <>
    >>>wrote:
    >>>
    >>>
    >>>> HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    >>>>household
    >>>
    >>>It's about 13 million or 13% of US households. 10 million more expected
    >>>by the end of 2005.
    >>>
    >>>Over 60 million by 2008.
    >>>
    >>>That's a fair number of households, wouldn't you say?

    >>
    >>25 million is closer to 10% of households in the USA

    >
    >
    > There are 280 million people in the country.
    > 10% of all households would be about 10 million.
    > -Rich


    According to a report at the US Census Bureau, in 1995 it was predicted
    there would be about 103 million households in 2001 and it was estimated
    there would be 115 million in 2010. You can see the report at:

    http://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p25-1129.pdf

    So 10 million sets if distributed in 10 million homes would be slightly
    less than 10%. The number may be smaller as there is at least a small
    percentage of homes with two or more HDTV sets. But it's still
    significant number.

    The bigger issue to me is how are these HD DVD players going to hook up
    to the HDTV sets. Those of us with older equipment may not be able to
    use it, especially if they go with DVI or HMDI connections. My three
    year old Mitsubishi set has component inputs and 1394, but the newer
    interfaces. I was thinking about getting a newer set (and cycling the
    Mitsubishi to the master bedroom), but I've decided to wait out the
    input interface wars for now.

    Frank
    Frank Sereno, Dec 12, 2004
    #14
  15. RichA

    Biz Guest

    I thought the news mentioned the US was pushing 300 million, so 10% would be
    more like 30 million, so I have no ieda how 13 million can equal anywhere
    close to 10% of the population...


    "GMAN" <> wrote in message
    news:cph4ua$6ug$...
    > In article <>, poldy

    <> wrote:
    > >In article <cpbaqi$ip8$>, "Mike Kohary" <>
    > >wrote:
    > >
    > >> HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    > >> household

    > >
    > >It's about 13 million or 13% of US households. 10 million more expected
    > >by the end of 2005.
    > >
    > >Over 60 million by 2008.
    > >
    > >That's a fair number of households, wouldn't you say?

    > 25 million is closer to 10% of households in the USA
    Biz, Dec 12, 2004
    #15
  16. RichA

    Dick Sidbury Guest

    Biz wrote:
    > I thought the news mentioned the US was pushing 300 million, so 10% would be
    > more like 30 million, so I have no ieda how 13 million can equal anywhere
    > close to 10% of the population...

    10% of HOUSEHOLDS is not 10% of population.
    HTH

    dick
    Dick Sidbury, Dec 12, 2004
    #16
  17. RichA

    RichA Guest

    On Sun, 12 Dec 2004 17:30:01 GMT, Frank Sereno
    <> wrote:

    >RichA wrote:
    >
    >> On Sun, 12 Dec 2004 10:01:44 GMT,
    >> (GMAN) wrote:
    >>
    >>
    >>>In article <>, poldy <> wrote:
    >>>
    >>>>In article <cpbaqi$ip8$>, "Mike Kohary" <>
    >>>>wrote:
    >>>>
    >>>>
    >>>>> HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    >>>>>household
    >>>>
    >>>>It's about 13 million or 13% of US households. 10 million more expected
    >>>>by the end of 2005.
    >>>>
    >>>>Over 60 million by 2008.
    >>>>
    >>>>That's a fair number of households, wouldn't you say?
    >>>
    >>>25 million is closer to 10% of households in the USA

    >>
    >>
    >> There are 280 million people in the country.
    >> 10% of all households would be about 10 million.
    >> -Rich

    >
    >According to a report at the US Census Bureau, in 1995 it was predicted
    >there would be about 103 million households in 2001 and it was estimated
    >there would be 115 million in 2010. You can see the report at:
    >
    >http://www.census.gov/prod/1/pop/p25-1129.pdf
    >
    >So 10 million sets if distributed in 10 million homes would be slightly
    >less than 10%. The number may be smaller as there is at least a small
    >percentage of homes with two or more HDTV sets. But it's still
    >significant number.
    >
    >The bigger issue to me is how are these HD DVD players going to hook up
    >to the HDTV sets. Those of us with older equipment may not be able to
    >use it, especially if they go with DVI or HMDI connections. My three
    >year old Mitsubishi set has component inputs and 1394, but the newer
    >interfaces. I was thinking about getting a newer set (and cycling the
    >Mitsubishi to the master bedroom), but I've decided to wait out the
    >input interface wars for now.
    >
    >Frank


    I think it's unreasonable to expect people to dump relatively
    new HDTVs because they don't have a newer input, but I do think
    conversion boxes will come along that will permit interfacing whatever
    input comes out of the boxes with those TVs, provided is not too
    complex an issue. I think the very first one of these was the
    antenna to 300ohm f-connected cable terminal.
    -Rich
    RichA, Dec 12, 2004
    #17
  18. RichA

    luminos Guest

    "RichA" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    > On Sun, 12 Dec 2004 10:01:44 GMT,
    > (GMAN) wrote:
    >
    >>In article <>, poldy
    >><> wrote:
    >>>In article <cpbaqi$ip8$>, "Mike Kohary" <>
    >>>wrote:
    >>>
    >>>> HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    >>>> household
    >>>
    >>>It's about 13 million or 13% of US households. 10 million more expected
    >>>by the end of 2005.
    >>>
    >>>Over 60 million by 2008.
    >>>
    >>>That's a fair number of households, wouldn't you say?

    >>25 million is closer to 10% of households in the USA

    >
    > There are 280 million people in the country.
    > 10% of all households would be about 10 million.
    > -Rich


    Rich, you must be the result of the new math. Care to explain how you
    arrived at this?
    luminos, Dec 12, 2004
    #18
  19. RichA

    Biz Guest

    "luminos" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    >
    > "RichA" <> wrote in message
    > news:...
    > > On Sun, 12 Dec 2004 10:01:44 GMT,
    > > (GMAN) wrote:
    > >
    > >>In article <>, poldy
    > >><> wrote:
    > >>>In article <cpbaqi$ip8$>, "Mike Kohary" <>
    > >>>wrote:
    > >>>
    > >>>> HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    > >>>> household
    > >>>
    > >>>It's about 13 million or 13% of US households. 10 million more

    expected
    > >>>by the end of 2005.
    > >>>
    > >>>Over 60 million by 2008.
    > >>>
    > >>>That's a fair number of households, wouldn't you say?
    > >>25 million is closer to 10% of households in the USA

    > >
    > > There are 280 million people in the country.
    > > 10% of all households would be about 10 million.
    > > -Rich

    >
    > Rich, you must be the result of the new math. Care to explain how you
    > arrived at this?
    >

    Its not new math, you made a similar mistake to what I did. 280 million
    people does not equaly 280 million households

    Unfortunately noone gave an estimate of the number of households, but based
    on the percentages given in previous posts, it must be somewhere around 100
    million households total in the US, so thats about 2.8 people per household.
    Biz, Dec 12, 2004
    #19
  20. RichA

    Justin Guest

    luminos wrote on [Sun, 12 Dec 2004 13:51:34 -0800]:
    >
    > "RichA" <> wrote in message
    > news:...
    >> On Sun, 12 Dec 2004 10:01:44 GMT,
    >> (GMAN) wrote:
    >>
    >>>In article <>, poldy
    >>><> wrote:
    >>>>In article <cpbaqi$ip8$>, "Mike Kohary" <>
    >>>>wrote:
    >>>>
    >>>>> HD-capable TVs hardly exist in the average American
    >>>>> household
    >>>>
    >>>>It's about 13 million or 13% of US households. 10 million more expected
    >>>>by the end of 2005.
    >>>>
    >>>>Over 60 million by 2008.
    >>>>
    >>>>That's a fair number of households, wouldn't you say?
    >>>25 million is closer to 10% of households in the USA

    >>
    >> There are 280 million people in the country.
    >> 10% of all households would be about 10 million.
    >> -Rich

    >
    > Rich, you must be the result of the new math. Care to explain how you
    > arrived at this?


    I'd guess by using math.

    280 million people does not equal 280 million households.
    Justin, Dec 12, 2004
    #20
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