DVD's obsolete in 10 years?

Discussion in 'Digital Photography' started by Alan Browne, Jul 14, 2004.

  1. Alan Browne

    Alan Browne Guest

    Alan Browne, Jul 14, 2004
    #1
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  2. In article <GubJc.116191$>,
    says...
    >
    > http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1509&e=1&u=/afp/afplifestyle_germany_us
    >
    > Not that Bill is always right...
    >
    >
    >



    Bill is almost always wrong in his predictions. Especially the ones he
    makes public. The only reason he said that no one would ever need more
    than 640K was that he didn't have anything to sell that handled more than
    that. As soon as he had something to sell, he forgot all about his
    prediction and started bragging about how much memory Windows could
    address.

    The only reason Bill is 'predicting' that DVDs will be obsolete in 10
    years is to try to kill sales of the technology. He does this all the
    time. What Bill really wants is for everyone to have to be on-line all
    the time and get all their files and programs from some huge server in
    Redmond that he controls. Or, at the very least, a server that someone
    has to pay him licensing fees for. This is what he keeps trying to push
    with .NET but isn't being too very successful.

    The fact that DVDs are becoming larger and faster is making it possible
    for people to carry more and more data with them rather than having to
    connect to some central server. I'm sure this has Bill a little scared.
    Grant Robertson, Jul 14, 2004
    #2
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  3. Alan Browne

    Sabineellen Guest

    > The only reason he said that no one would ever need more
    >than 640K was that he didn't have anything to sell that handled more than
    >that


    He denied that he ever said that.
    Sabineellen, Jul 14, 2004
    #3
  4. Alan Browne

    Terry D Guest

    Terry D, Jul 14, 2004
    #4
  5. Alan Browne

    Edward Todd Guest

    We already have memory card disks that go in cameras that will hold 2
    gigs. It will not be long that something on this order will come along
    as standard for music and video. Music and video recorder/players with
    no moving parts. No motors or bearings to wera out, no 'skipping' when
    you hit a bump. etc. Imagine something the size of a Memory Stick
    holding 4 gigs or more!

    It will not be long until we start transferring those DVDs to memory
    cards.

    Edward
    Edward Todd, Jul 14, 2004
    #5
  6. Alan Browne

    Sabineellen Guest

    >
    >We already have memory card disks that go in cameras that will hold 2
    >gigs. It will not be long that something on this order will come along
    >as standard for music and video. Music and video recorder/players with
    >no moving parts. No motors or bearings to wera out, no 'skipping' when
    >you hit a bump. etc. Imagine something the size of a Memory Stick
    >holding 4 gigs or more!
    >
    >It will not be long until we start transferring those DVDs to memory
    >cards.
    >
    >Edward
    >


    Gates is absolutely right that DVDs are ridiculous in that they scratch easily
    and are too easily damaged. Nanotech is around the corner. Within 10 years
    we'll probably have more durable media.
    Sabineellen, Jul 14, 2004
    #6
  7. Alan Browne

    George Guest

    "Sabineellen" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    >
    > Gates is absolutely right that DVDs are ridiculous in that they scratch

    easily
    > and are too easily damaged. Nanotech is around the corner. Within 10 years
    > we'll probably have more durable media.


    I agree...I can't believe how much money I've got sunk in DVD movies and any
    that have been
    played more than 10 times seem to develop problems (and that doesn't even
    address that about
    1/3 of them (that I've bought) are bad when new. I even gave up on getting
    a good copy of the
    "Concert for George" and accepted the least bad one I could find (and that
    is $30). Flash memory
    might be a nice substitute when the density/price ratio gets more favorable.

    Also, spintronics (devices based on electron spin rather than charge) is in
    its infancy. Who knows
    what new things might come from that.
    George, Jul 14, 2004
    #7
  8. Alan Browne <> climbed onto an orange
    crate and shouted:

    >
    >http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1509&e=1&u=/afp/afplifestyle_germany_us


    Ho hum. Most computer technologies are obsolete within 10 years.
    Anybody out there still using 5-1/4" floppy drives or 386-class
    processors?

    There are a few exceptions, e.g., hard drives basically work the same
    as 20 years ago even though they are bigger and faster.

    >Not that Bill is always right...


    Even a blind pig can find its slop.


    --
    "Politicians & Diapers Need To Be Changed For The Same Reason"
    (seen on a bumper sticker)
    Charles Hawtrey, Jul 14, 2004
    #8
  9. Alan Browne

    Alan Browne Guest

    George wrote:

    > "Sabineellen" <> wrote in message
    > news:...
    >
    >>Gates is absolutely right that DVDs are ridiculous in that they scratch

    >
    > easily
    >
    >>and are too easily damaged. Nanotech is around the corner. Within 10 years
    >>we'll probably have more durable media.

    >
    >
    > I agree...I can't believe how much money I've got sunk in DVD movies and any
    > that have been
    > played more than 10 times seem to develop problems (and that doesn't even
    > address that about



    Hmm. You must be real mean to your DVD's. I've never had a new
    one do anything wrong. Some rentals skip or freeze, but a quick
    wipedown with a kleenex fixes that.

    I even bought a few used DVD's from the rental store and they are
    fine.


    --
    -- rec.photo.equipment.35mm user resource:
    -- http://www.aliasimages.com/rpe35mmur.htm
    -- e-meil: there's no such thing as a FreeLunch.--
    Alan Browne, Jul 14, 2004
    #9
  10. "Alan Browne" <> wrote in message
    news:GubJc.116191$...
    >
    >

    http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1509&e=1&u=/afp/afplifestyle_germany_us
    >
    > Not that Bill is always right...


    Nobody is. However, this time he just might be. I find the damned things
    to be unreliable. I have two DVD players and a DVD reader/burner in my
    computer. All three are fussy. We now ALWAYS rent movies on VHS, when we
    have that choice. I have stopped using writeable DVDs as backups for my
    computer files. Far too many that I have burned have turned into coasters.

    I know all about treating them with TLC. None of that helps very much,
    although I have been able to watch a movie or two from failed, rented DVDs
    by wiping God knows what off of the discs.

    We rent movies from three different stores and I have taken the time to ask
    the sales clerks about their experiences with customers and DVDs and all
    report the same thing: DVDs are a pain in the arse for customers and rental
    concerns alike. This technology is just too "fussy." Good riddance to DVDs
    and thank you Mr. Gates if you can give us some affordable alternatives.
    Charles Schuler, Jul 14, 2004
    #10
  11. In article <>,
    says...
    > Gates is absolutely right that DVDs are ridiculous in that they scratch easily
    > and are too easily damaged. Nanotech is around the corner. Within 10 years
    > we'll probably have more durable media.


    Yes we'll probably have better, more durable media in ten years. That's
    inevitable. Are DVDs more prone to scratching and data errors than CDs?
    Conventional wisdom says yes, my experience with Netflix DVDs says no.
    Brian C. Baird, Jul 14, 2004
    #11
  12. In article <>,
    says...
    > We rent movies from three different stores and I have taken the time to ask
    > the sales clerks about their experiences with customers and DVDs and all
    > report the same thing: DVDs are a pain in the arse for customers and rental
    > concerns alike. This technology is just too "fussy." Good riddance to DVDs


    You must be cursed with messy fingers or shoddy equipment. Even my $79
    Sony DVD player handles scratched DVDs from Blockbuster, Netflix and
    others without incident.
    Brian C. Baird, Jul 14, 2004
    #12
  13. Alan Browne

    MarkH Guest

    Edward Todd <> wrote in news:info-3B8D67.12163914072004
    @news-south.dca.giganews.com:

    > We already have memory card disks that go in cameras that will hold 2
    > gigs.


    I think you mean 8GB!

    I have a 2GB CF Card in my iPaq, but much larger are available, like 4GB
    and 6GB. In February Lexar announced that their 8GB CF cards will be
    available by May, so they should be available now. Can you imagine how
    cheap a 16GB will be in 10 years time?



    --
    Mark Heyes (New Zealand)
    See my pics at http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~markh/
    "There are 10 types of people, those that
    understand binary and those that don't"
    MarkH, Jul 15, 2004
    #13

  14. > You must be cursed .............


    I have suspected that for some time now.
    Charles Schuler, Jul 15, 2004
    #14
  15. On Wed, 14 Jul 2004 10:33:20 -0400, Alan Browne
    <> wrote:

    >
    >http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1509&e=1&u=/afp/afplifestyle_germany_us
    >
    >Not that Bill is always right...


    I think he probably is in this case; not that the 12cm platter will
    disappear, but that the DVD in its current incarnation as a 4/9/18GB
    disk will. 9GB per side just isn't going to cut it for the HDTV
    resolution movies with x channel sound in y languagues we're supposed
    to be watching "Real Soon Now". Plus, since Microsoft is heavily
    involved (along with IBM, Intel, Sony, Toshiba, Matsushita, Disney and
    Warner Bros.) in bringing this DRM encumbered "DVD-Plus" to market,
    I'm guessing they have some inside info...

    There's a little more on the DRM technology here:

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/07/14/aacs_drm/

    and here:

    http://news.com.com/2100-1025_3-5203004.html

    Gotta love the irony of using the codename "Janus" though. ;)

    Andy
    Andy Blanchard, Jul 15, 2004
    #15
  16. Alan Browne

    nospam Guest

    MarkH <> wrote:

    >Edward Todd <> wrote in news:info-3B8D67.12163914072004
    >@news-south.dca.giganews.com:
    >
    >> We already have memory card disks that go in cameras that will hold 2
    >> gigs.

    >
    >I think you mean 8GB!
    >
    >I have a 2GB CF Card in my iPaq, but much larger are available, like 4GB
    >and 6GB. In February Lexar announced that their 8GB CF cards will be
    >available by May, so they should be available now. Can you imagine how
    >cheap a 16GB will be in 10 years time?


    Or how expensive?

    Every couple of years silicon chip features have got smaller and the chips
    took less power, went faster, and cost less because they were smaller. That
    era is about over. Maybe you noticed PC processors haven't really got any
    faster in the last couple of years?

    In the next 10 years chips will not be getting cheaper/smaller/faster at
    anything like the rate they did during the last 10 years.
    nospam, Jul 15, 2004
    #16
  17. Alan Browne

    mark_digital Guest

    "Alan Browne" <> wrote in message news:GubJc.116191$...

    http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1509&e=1&u=/afp/afplifestyle_germany_us

    Not that Bill is always right...


    ------------
    ------------
    ------------
    As long as I have a hard copy of my prints I could care less
    what Bill imagines. Most movies today suck so bad who would
    want to save them, never mind watch them more than once. Yech.
    Same holds true for today's music. Music was better when the artists
    were taking drugs.
    mark_
    mark_digital, Jul 15, 2004
    #17
  18. Alan Browne

    Douglas Guest

    There are 12 gig CF cards,only $14,900 each! That was in may,there might
    have been a $100 rebate since!
    "nospam" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    > MarkH <> wrote:
    >
    > >Edward Todd <> wrote in news:info-3B8D67.12163914072004
    > >@news-south.dca.giganews.com:
    > >
    > >> We already have memory card disks that go in cameras that will hold 2
    > >> gigs.

    > >
    > >I think you mean 8GB!
    > >
    > >I have a 2GB CF Card in my iPaq, but much larger are available, like 4GB
    > >and 6GB. In February Lexar announced that their 8GB CF cards will be
    > >available by May, so they should be available now. Can you imagine how
    > >cheap a 16GB will be in 10 years time?

    >
    > Or how expensive?
    >
    > Every couple of years silicon chip features have got smaller and the chips
    > took less power, went faster, and cost less because they were smaller.

    That
    > era is about over. Maybe you noticed PC processors haven't really got any
    > faster in the last couple of years?
    >
    > In the next 10 years chips will not be getting cheaper/smaller/faster at
    > anything like the rate they did during the last 10 years.
    >
    >
    Douglas, Jul 15, 2004
    #18
  19. Alan Browne

    mark_digital Guest

    "nospam" <> wrote in message news:...
    MarkH <> wrote:

    >Edward Todd <> wrote in news:info-3B8D67.12163914072004
    >@news-south.dca.giganews.com:
    >
    >> We already have memory card disks that go in cameras that will hold 2
    >> gigs.

    >
    >I think you mean 8GB!
    >
    >I have a 2GB CF Card in my iPaq, but much larger are available, like 4GB
    >and 6GB. In February Lexar announced that their 8GB CF cards will be
    >available by May, so they should be available now. Can you imagine how
    >cheap a 16GB will be in 10 years time?


    Or how expensive?

    Every couple of years silicon chip features have got smaller and the chips
    took less power, went faster, and cost less because they were smaller. That
    era is about over. Maybe you noticed PC processors haven't really got any
    faster in the last couple of years?

    In the next 10 years chips will not be getting cheaper/smaller/faster at
    anything like the rate they did during the last 10 years.
    -----------
    -----------
    -----------
    Optical disc storage isn't physically expanding and a lot of this
    increase storage is hocus pocus compression schemes that
    stresses out your brain to put it all together.
    I'll take 30 full frames per second (or 24 ) any day over
    compression. It's people such as myself that want quality
    over quantity and a real rational reason to advance.
    It's no wonder chip progress has slowed down. Only
    fanatics with no self worth will nibble and that my friend
    isn't enough to sustain R&D.
    Besides all this, Hillary wants to run for president and who
    knows what her agenda will be. Not even Bill knows.

    mark_
    mark_digital, Jul 15, 2004
    #19
  20. Alan Browne

    Steve Hix Guest

    In article <>,
    Edward Todd <> wrote:

    > We already have memory card disks that go in cameras that will hold 2
    > gigs. It will not be long that something on this order will come along
    > as standard for music and video. Music and video recorder/players with
    > no moving parts. No motors or bearings to wera out, no 'skipping' when
    > you hit a bump. etc. Imagine something the size of a Memory Stick
    > holding 4 gigs or more!
    >
    > It will not be long until we start transferring those DVDs to memory
    > cards.


    They're going to have to come *way* down in price before that will
    happen.
    Steve Hix, Jul 15, 2004
    #20
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