Death of DVD revisted

Discussion in 'DVD Video' started by The Bradleys, Sep 3, 2003.

  1. The Bradleys

    The Bradleys Guest

    Hi all, I followed th ethread about the three reasons that the DVD medium
    would disappear. Here is an article on yahoo regarding exactly one of these
    three reasons.
    I was just wondering how accurate does everyone think this article is?

    steve





    http://story.news.yahoo.com/newstmpl=story&u=/nm/20030903/music_nm/media_pir
    acy_dc_1


    Hollywood will win the war against illegal downloading but the battlefield
    will be littered with casualties, including the DVD and CD formats as
    physical means of distributing video and audio, according to a Forrester
    Research study released Tuesday.



    The study predicts that in five years, CDs and DVDs will start to go the way
    of the vinyl LP as 33% of music sales and 19% of home video revenue shifts
    to streaming and downloading.


    Part of that stems from the continued proliferation of illegal file trading,
    which has caused an estimated $700 million of lost CD sales since 1999. But
    it will be due more so to efforts by the studios, cable companies and telcos
    to finally deliver legitimate alternatives like video-on-demand, Forrester
    researcher Josh Bernoff said.


    "The idea that anyone who has video-on-demand access to any movie they are
    interested in would get up and go to Blockbuster just doesn't make any
    sense," Bernoff said. "(The decline) begins with rentals, but eventually I
    think sales of these pieces of plastic are going to start going away because
    people will have access to whatever they want right there at their
    television set."


    While consumers with VOD capabilities should grow within five years from 10
    million to 35 million, or about a third of all U.S. television households,
    the association that represents disc makers does not believe that output
    will slow.


    In fact, the Princeton, N.J.-based International Recording Media Assn.
    estimates that the number of DVDs replicated each year in North America will
    increase from a current 1.4 billion to 2.6 billion by 2008.


    CD replications, though, are forecast by IRMA to fall by 15%-18% in the next
    five years, about half the rate of decline estimated by Forrester.


    "The consensus in the manufacturing business is that there will be a
    decline, but we don't see as drastic a decline," IRMA president Charles Van
    Horn said. "We see growth (in video and DVD), and I don't think it will be
    because there are more pipelines to feed. It will be consumers buying
    discs."


    Analysts also caution that the shift from hard copy to virtual distribution
    could be more gradual.


    "People like walking into the store and seeing the product. It's part of the
    entertainment," Barrington Research Associates analyst James Goss said. "The
    studios would be just as happy to sell something in a streamed form or a
    hard disc form. But once you download it to your computer, you're probably
    going to burn it onto a CD or DVD, so you'd end up with the same optical
    storage issues."


    The Forrester report lists a number of winners and losers from the expected
    changes.


    Among the beneficiaries are Internet portals (news - web sites) that enable
    on-demand media services, broadband suppliers such as cable and telcos and
    the creative community, which would profit from the removal of manufacturing
    and distribution costs and constraints. AOL Time Warner's decision to sell
    off its disc manufacturing plants was said to be proof of this trend.


    Media conglomerates could be among the losers if they do not have control of
    emerging means of distribution like VOD, Forrester said. Such retailers as
    Tower Records and Blockbuster will certainly feel the pain as sales and
    rentals shrink, though they may be able to sustain business by associating
    themselves with newer on-demand services. Major retailers including Wal-Mart
    and Best Buy are expected to survive by shifting CD and DVD floor space to
    sales of media devices.


    The shift could also present several opportunities for companies if they
    move quickly.


    Television companies have about three more years to release shows on DVD. By
    2006, it is estimated that negotiations will start to focus on making
    content available on cable and Internet "basic VOD" tiers.


    Movies studios are also urged to press the development of Internet-based
    alternatives to cable VOD for movies-on-demand.


    "On-demand media services have the potential to turn pirate losses into
    gains even as they break the disc-based shackles that now hold back
    entertainment," the report concludes.





    Reuters/Hollywood Reporter
    The Bradleys, Sep 3, 2003
    #1
    1. Advertising

  2. The Bradleys wrote:

    > Hi all, I followed th ethread about the three reasons that the DVD medium
    > would disappear. Here is an article on yahoo regarding exactly one of these
    > three reasons.
    > I was just wondering how accurate does everyone think this article is?


    I'm guessing it was written in Los Angeles, where they honestly believe
    we really WILL be downloading all our movies someday.
    (After all, the hackers do it, and look how easy it is for them!...That
    probably means EVERYBODY'S doing it!)

    In the other 49 states, however, we all look at Movielink.com and
    snicker. :-D

    Derek Janssen (we live in an age when "Netflix" is now a *verb*...And
    VOD's been Netflix'ed)
    Derek Janssen, Sep 3, 2003
    #2
    1. Advertising

  3. The Bradleys

    Guest

    A cheap effort by the lagging VOD industry to improve their fortunes.
    Losers.
    -Rich

    On Wed, 3 Sep 2003 14:44:25 -0700, "The Bradleys"
    <> wrote:

    >Hi all, I followed th ethread about the three reasons that the DVD medium
    >would disappear. Here is an article on yahoo regarding exactly one of these
    >three reasons.
    >I was just wondering how accurate does everyone think this article is?
    >
    >steve
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >http://story.news.yahoo.com/newstmpl=story&u=/nm/20030903/music_nm/media_pir
    >acy_dc_1
    >
    >
    >Hollywood will win the war against illegal downloading but the battlefield
    >will be littered with casualties, including the DVD and CD formats as
    >physical means of distributing video and audio, according to a Forrester
    >Research study released Tuesday.
    >
    >
    >
    >The study predicts that in five years, CDs and DVDs will start to go the way
    >of the vinyl LP as 33% of music sales and 19% of home video revenue shifts
    >to streaming and downloading.
    >
    >
    >Part of that stems from the continued proliferation of illegal file trading,
    >which has caused an estimated $700 million of lost CD sales since 1999. But
    >it will be due more so to efforts by the studios, cable companies and telcos
    >to finally deliver legitimate alternatives like video-on-demand, Forrester
    >researcher Josh Bernoff said.
    >
    >
    >"The idea that anyone who has video-on-demand access to any movie they are
    >interested in would get up and go to Blockbuster just doesn't make any
    >sense," Bernoff said. "(The decline) begins with rentals, but eventually I
    >think sales of these pieces of plastic are going to start going away because
    >people will have access to whatever they want right there at their
    >television set."
    >
    >
    >While consumers with VOD capabilities should grow within five years from 10
    >million to 35 million, or about a third of all U.S. television households,
    >the association that represents disc makers does not believe that output
    >will slow.
    >
    >
    >In fact, the Princeton, N.J.-based International Recording Media Assn.
    >estimates that the number of DVDs replicated each year in North America will
    >increase from a current 1.4 billion to 2.6 billion by 2008.
    >
    >
    >CD replications, though, are forecast by IRMA to fall by 15%-18% in the next
    >five years, about half the rate of decline estimated by Forrester.
    >
    >
    >"The consensus in the manufacturing business is that there will be a
    >decline, but we don't see as drastic a decline," IRMA president Charles Van
    >Horn said. "We see growth (in video and DVD), and I don't think it will be
    >because there are more pipelines to feed. It will be consumers buying
    >discs."
    >
    >
    >Analysts also caution that the shift from hard copy to virtual distribution
    >could be more gradual.
    >
    >
    >"People like walking into the store and seeing the product. It's part of the
    >entertainment," Barrington Research Associates analyst James Goss said. "The
    >studios would be just as happy to sell something in a streamed form or a
    >hard disc form. But once you download it to your computer, you're probably
    >going to burn it onto a CD or DVD, so you'd end up with the same optical
    >storage issues."
    >
    >
    >The Forrester report lists a number of winners and losers from the expected
    >changes.
    >
    >
    >Among the beneficiaries are Internet portals (news - web sites) that enable
    >on-demand media services, broadband suppliers such as cable and telcos and
    >the creative community, which would profit from the removal of manufacturing
    >and distribution costs and constraints. AOL Time Warner's decision to sell
    >off its disc manufacturing plants was said to be proof of this trend.
    >
    >
    >Media conglomerates could be among the losers if they do not have control of
    >emerging means of distribution like VOD, Forrester said. Such retailers as
    >Tower Records and Blockbuster will certainly feel the pain as sales and
    >rentals shrink, though they may be able to sustain business by associating
    >themselves with newer on-demand services. Major retailers including Wal-Mart
    >and Best Buy are expected to survive by shifting CD and DVD floor space to
    >sales of media devices.
    >
    >
    >The shift could also present several opportunities for companies if they
    >move quickly.
    >
    >
    >Television companies have about three more years to release shows on DVD. By
    >2006, it is estimated that negotiations will start to focus on making
    >content available on cable and Internet "basic VOD" tiers.
    >
    >
    >Movies studios are also urged to press the development of Internet-based
    >alternatives to cable VOD for movies-on-demand.
    >
    >
    >"On-demand media services have the potential to turn pirate losses into
    >gains even as they break the disc-based shackles that now hold back
    >entertainment," the report concludes.
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >Reuters/Hollywood Reporter
    >
    >
    >
    >
    , Sep 4, 2003
    #3
  4. The Bradleys

    P. Speedbyrd Guest

    On Thu, 04 Sep 2003 02:14:12 GMT, wrote:

    >A cheap effort by the lagging VOD industry to improve their fortunes.
    >Losers.
    >-Rich
    >
    >On Wed, 3 Sep 2003 14:44:25 -0700, "The Bradleys"
    ><> wrote:
    >
    >>Hi all, I followed th ethread about the three reasons that the DVD medium
    >>would disappear. Here is an article on yahoo regarding exactly one of these
    >>three reasons.
    >>I was just wondering how accurate does everyone think this article is?
    >>
    >>steve
    >>



    You, being the ultimate loser, would know all about that.

    Prof. Speedbyrd :>
    P. Speedbyrd, Sep 4, 2003
    #4
  5. The Bradleys

    Eric R. Guest

    > The study predicts that in five years, CDs and DVDs will start to go the way
    > of the vinyl LP as 33% of music sales and 19% of home video revenue shifts
    > to streaming and downloading.


    And just where is all this bandwidth going to come from?

    > "The idea that anyone who has video-on-demand access to any movie they are
    > interested in would get up and go to Blockbuster just doesn't make any
    > sense," Bernoff said.


    Does video-on-demand offer deleted scenes, director's commentaries,
    unlimited viewings during the rental period, widescreen and fullscreen
    options, and all the others perks we've come to expect thanks to DVD?

    Oh and by the way, will it offer HDTV resolution (even more bandwidth
    requirements)? Video-on-demand can't even compete with current DVD
    technology. How is it going to compete against HD-DVD?

    -Eric
    Eric R., Sep 4, 2003
    #5
  6. The Bradleys

    Jordan Lund Guest

    "The Bradleys" <> wrote in message news:<fjt5b.755$>...

    > I was just wondering how accurate does everyone think this article is?


    If it were possible then newspapers and magazines would already be
    dead. They aren't. The postulation that people will be willing to
    switch to downloading and/or streaming is flawed. People want a
    physical media to call "theirs", as a result this will never replace
    DVDs and CDs.

    What will? Some new media, perhaps crystalline in nature.

    http://www.stanford.edu/dept/news/report/news/march6/AAASfan-36.html

    - Jordan
    Jordan Lund, Sep 4, 2003
    #6
  7. The Bradleys

    Paulw Guest

    (Jordan Lund) wrote in
    news::

    > "The Bradleys" <> wrote in message
    > news:<fjt5b.755$>...
    >
    >> I was just wondering how accurate does everyone think this article
    >> is?

    >

    Bin Laden killed many Americans. We read the papers and went after Saddam.
    Now bin laden is planning another attack. Why beleive what we read
    Paulw, Sep 4, 2003
    #7
  8. The Bradleys

    Mark Spatny Guest

    The Bradleys, says...
    > I was just wondering how accurate does everyone think this article is?


    Wishful thinking. It will happen some day, but not in the next decade.
    Mark Spatny, Sep 4, 2003
    #8
  9. The Bradleys

    Mark Spatny Guest

    The Bradleys, says...
    > Part of that stems from the continued proliferation of illegal file trading,
    > which has caused an estimated $700 million of lost CD sales since 1999.


    This is my favorite part. I love how the record industry assumes that
    all of their losses are due to piracy. It couldn't POSSIBLY be because
    everyone has realized that CDs are overpriced, or that we are going
    through one of many periods of rather uninspired music that just isn't
    worth buying in bulk. It's a lot easier to blame somebody else for their
    woes, rather than getting their own business in order.
    Mark Spatny, Sep 4, 2003
    #9
  10. The Bradleys

    JethroUK© Guest

    i would be terribly easy for artists to encourage people to buy the official
    CD/DVD

    supply the CD with a concert ticket or DVD with a movie ticket

    supply a CD/DVD with a dongle - a dongle is a piece of hardware that plugs
    into your machine (anywhere)

    it's time they started thinking that supplying their work on a 10 a penny
    piece plastic just aint good enough



    "Mark Spatny" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    > The Bradleys, says...
    > > Part of that stems from the continued proliferation of illegal file

    trading,
    > > which has caused an estimated $700 million of lost CD sales since 1999.

    >
    > This is my favorite part. I love how the record industry assumes that
    > all of their losses are due to piracy. It couldn't POSSIBLY be because
    > everyone has realized that CDs are overpriced, or that we are going
    > through one of many periods of rather uninspired music that just isn't
    > worth buying in bulk. It's a lot easier to blame somebody else for their
    > woes, rather than getting their own business in order.
    JethroUK©, Sep 4, 2003
    #10
    1. Advertising

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