# Count down to zero?

Discussion in 'Digital Photography' started by Scott W, Jul 1, 2005.

1. ### Scott WGuest

I came across this article and the plots took me by surprise, in this
form it looks like a clock ticking down the finally minutes of film
cameras life.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/technology/daily/graphics/digitalCameras_121904.html

I got interesting in just what the data was showing so I plotted it out
in a number of ways.
http://www.sewcon.com/photos/loss.gif
The first of my plots is very telling, it is a more or less straight
line pointed towards zero sales.
The second plot shows that on a percentage bases the loss is
accelerating.
The last plot if pretty simple, just how many units less are sold each
year, this is pretty much constant at 3 million less each year.

I had assumed that the loss would be more of a exponential decay, where
the percentage loss would be about the same from year to year, so that
the number loss in terms of the absolute number of units sold would be
less each year.

I have to think this drop will slow down soon, otherwise it will reach
zero before 2008.

I don't believe these number include disposable cameras, which are
normally counted as film and not cameras.

So the question is will the clock keep ticking at the same rate?

Scott

Scott W, Jul 1, 2005

2. ### JockGuest

"Scott W" <> wrote in message
news:...
|
| So the question is will the clock keep ticking at the same rate?
|
| Scott
|

...only time will tell
Jock

Jock, Jul 1, 2005

3. ### Malcolm StewartGuest

"Scott W" <> wrote in message
news:...
> I came across this article and the plots took me by surprise, in this
> form it looks like a clock ticking down the finally minutes of film
> cameras life.
>

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/technology/daily/graphics/digitalCameras_121904.html
>
> I got interesting in just what the data was showing so I plotted it out
> in a number of ways.
> http://www.sewcon.com/photos/loss.gif
> The first of my plots is very telling, it is a more or less straight
> line pointed towards zero sales.

snip
> So the question is will the clock keep ticking at the same rate?
>
> Scott

Interesting... Well, there's someting about every cloud having a silver
lining.

I'm using this period to purchase, s/h and at affordable prices, camera
bodies which as an amateur I've hankered after for many years. Before
buying into the EOS AF range and eventually getting an EOS10D, I shot
Minolta MD exclusively, but fuelled by magazine reviews and readers
comments, I've always been curious about the near mythical status of the
Nikon range and the F3, and also the Canon T90. Well I now have a mint F3HP
with a small range of mint AIS lenses, and have also been able to purchase a
T90 - again in mint condition.
The F3 has taught me how good a decent viewfinder can be, whilst the T90
clearly demonstrates where much of the EOS range ergonomics stem from.
So, I'd better use my film cameras heavily to keep the E6 labs in
--
M Stewart
Milton Keynes, UK
http://www.megalith.freeserve.co.uk/oddimage.htm

Malcolm Stewart, Jul 1, 2005
4. ### Paul H.Guest

"Scott W" <> wrote in message
news:...
> I came across this article and the plots took me by surprise, in this
> form it looks like a clock ticking down the finally minutes of film
> cameras life.
>

I see the graph more as a depiction of a digital camera Pacman in which film
cameras are the blue energy dots.

Seriously, though, the game has been over for some time: for all but the
purists are correct when they say you just can't get the same results from
even high-end digital that you can get from film and film processing, but
such a claim is a minor quibble-- digital is more than satisfactory for most
photo applications.

In a way, it's like making a decison about purchasing bed linen: On one
side of the aisle, you have the washable cotton, 300 thread-count digital
camera sheets and on the other side you have the dry-clean-only, 310
thread-count, satin film camera sheets. At some point you have to ask
yourself if you can even feel the 10 thread-per-inch difference and even if
you *can* feel a slight difference, is the inconvenience and cost of going
to the dry cleaner every time you have to clean your sheets worth the
marginal increase in softness and appearance? I don't think so. And
neither do millions of other photographers who have opted to go digital.

Now if I can only break the annoying habit of hitching my car to parking
meter posts, I'll move fully into the 21st century.

Paul H., Jul 1, 2005