CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon DSLR - Due Date

Discussion in 'Digital Photography' started by Dr James Wajad, PhD, Dec 30, 2008.

  1. There is a need for a CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon
    DSLR. The D3X is expensive. Nikon knows all this.

    The question is, when will Nikon release such a great
    camera (be it called the D800, D700X, D900..). It may
    be possible to estimate when, since there is a proven
    pattern to the timing of Nikon's DSLR releases.

    Below I have tabulated all Nikon's DSLRs in the order
    of their official announcement dates. The table's
    columns are:
    * Category (A = FX Pro, B = FX SemiPro, C = DX Pro,
    D = DX Pro High Speed, E = DX SemiPro, F = DX Mid
    range, G = DX Low range).
    * Model.
    * Official announcement date (YY/MM/DD).
    * Predecessor Model. Within a category, this must be
    the last released model. If it is the first model in
    a category, a subjective choice is made. The only two
    that are controversial is whether the predecessor of
    the D700 is the D3 or the D300 (I chose the D3, but
    since the D3 and D300 were announced on the same date
    it does not matter to the calculations) and whether
    the predecessor of the D100 is the D1 or the D1X (I
    chose the D1X because of resolution, but this is so
    long ago that it does not affect the calculations).
    * Number of whole months between the announcements of
    the model and its predecessor.

    C D1 99/06/16 -- --
    C D1X 01/02/05 D1 20
    D D1H 01/02/05 D1 20
    E D100 02/02/21 D1X 12
    D D2H 02/07/22 D1H 17
    F D70 04/01/28 D100 23
    C D2X 04/09/16 D1X 43
    D D2Hs 05/02/16 D2H 31
    F D70s 05/04/20 D70 15
    G D50 05/04/20 D70 15
    E D200 05/11/01 D100 44
    C D2Xs 06/06/01 D2X 20
    F D80 06/08/09 D70s 16
    G D40 06/11/16 D50 19
    G D40x 07/03/06 D40 04
    A D3 07/08/23 D2Xs 15
    E D300 07/08/23 D200 22
    G D60 08/01/29 D40x 11
    B D700 08/07/01 D3 10
    F D90 08/08/27 D80 25
    A D3X 08/12/01 D3 15

    From these data we can calculate the linear trend in
    the number of months to wait before a superseding
    model arrives. The regression line is downwards, with
    equation: Months = 24.4 - 0.43 * ReleaseNumber where
    ReleaseNumber is 1 for the D1X, 2 for the D1H etc. If
    we include the data for the D40X, which came very
    quickly after the D40, the prediction is for a 14
    month interval between the D800 and its predecessor:

    B D800 09/09/01 D700 14

    If we exclude data for the D40X, the prediction is
    for a 15 month interval, so the change is small:

    B D800 09/09/30 D700 15

    It can be argued that the best predecessor for an FX
    SemiPro model in high resolution would be the FX
    Pro model in that resolution, the D3X, and not the
    previous FX SemiPro model, the D700. If so, you
    will be waiting longer for the D800:

    B D800 10/02/28 D3X 15

    CONCLUSION

    Ignoring the effects of market pressures, I predict
    that the full-frame, 24.5MP Nikon SemiPro DSLR (D800,
    D700X or D900) to be officially announced either in
    August-October 2009 or February 2010.

    The above is for entertainment purposes only and all
    liability arising from it is specifically disclaimed.
    This said, I am never wrong.

    Dr James Wajad, PhD
    Info-Wars 2002 LLC
    http://www.infoDESPAMMEDwars.com/~wajad
    email-
    Dr James Wajad, PhD, Dec 30, 2008
    #1
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  2. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    measekite Guest

    On Tue, 30 Dec 2008 19:34:02 +0000, Dr James Wajad, PhD wrote:

    > There is a need for a CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon
    > DSLR. The D3X is expensive. Nikon knows all this.




    Only cameras like the D60 and the DRXSi should have the smaller sensor.
    >All of the other cameras beginning with the D90 and the 50D should be
    >full frame. Then the mfg should make lenses for that camera that may be

    lower in price of the L series but better than the cheapos that are
    really expensive


    > The question is, when will Nikon release such a great

    camera (be it
    > called the D800, D700X, D900..). It may be possible to estimate when,
    > since there is a proven pattern to the timing of Nikon's DSLR releases.
    >
    > Below I have tabulated all Nikon's DSLRs in the order of their official
    > announcement dates. The table's columns are: * Category (A = FX Pro, B =
    > FX SemiPro, C = DX Pro, D = DX Pro High Speed, E = DX SemiPro, F = DX
    > Mid range, G = DX Low range). * Model. * Official announcement date
    > (YY/MM/DD). * Predecessor Model. Within a category, this must be the
    > last released model. If it is the first model in a category, a
    > subjective choice is made. The only two that are controversial is
    > whether the predecessor of the D700 is the D3 or the D300 (I chose the
    > D3, but since the D3 and D300 were announced on the same date it does
    > not matter to the calculations) and whether the predecessor of the D100
    > is the D1 or the D1X (I chose the D1X because of resolution, but this is
    > so long ago that it does not affect the calculations). * Number of whole
    > months between the announcements of the model and its predecessor.
    >
    > C D1 99/06/16 -- --
    > C D1X 01/02/05 D1 20
    > D D1H 01/02/05 D1 20
    > E D100 02/02/21 D1X 12
    > D D2H 02/07/22 D1H 17
    > F D70 04/01/28 D100 23
    > C D2X 04/09/16 D1X 43
    > D D2Hs 05/02/16 D2H 31
    > F D70s 05/04/20 D70 15
    > G D50 05/04/20 D70 15
    > E D200 05/11/01 D100 44
    > C D2Xs 06/06/01 D2X 20
    > F D80 06/08/09 D70s 16
    > G D40 06/11/16 D50 19
    > G D40x 07/03/06 D40 04
    > A D3 07/08/23 D2Xs 15
    > E D300 07/08/23 D200 22
    > G D60 08/01/29 D40x 11
    > B D700 08/07/01 D3 10
    > F D90 08/08/27 D80 25
    > A D3X 08/12/01 D3 15
    >
    > From these data we can calculate the linear trend in the number of
    > months to wait before a superseding model arrives. The regression line
    > is downwards, with equation: Months = 24.4 - 0.43 * ReleaseNumber where
    > ReleaseNumber is 1 for the D1X, 2 for the D1H etc. If we include the
    > data for the D40X, which came very quickly after the D40, the prediction
    > is for a 14 month interval between the D800 and its predecessor:
    >
    > B D800 09/09/01 D700 14
    >
    > If we exclude data for the D40X, the prediction is for a 15 month
    > interval, so the change is small:
    >
    > B D800 09/09/30 D700 15
    >
    > It can be argued that the best predecessor for an FX SemiPro model in
    > high resolution would be the FX Pro model in that resolution, the D3X,
    > and not the previous FX SemiPro model, the D700. If so, you will be
    > waiting longer for the D800:
    >
    > B D800 10/02/28 D3X 15
    >
    > CONCLUSION
    >
    > Ignoring the effects of market pressures, I predict that the full-frame,
    > 24.5MP Nikon SemiPro DSLR (D800, D700X or D900) to be officially
    > announced either in August-October 2009 or February 2010.
    >
    > The above is for entertainment purposes only and all liability arising
    > from it is specifically disclaimed. This said, I am never wrong.
    >
    > Dr James Wajad, PhD
    > Info-Wars 2002 LLC
    > http://www.infoDESPAMMEDwars.com/~wajad email-
    >
    measekite, Dec 31, 2008
    #2
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