Canon Rebates - Fuel Speculation on 5D replacement?

Discussion in 'Digital Photography' started by W, Oct 15, 2006.

  1. W

    W Guest

    Folks,

    Looks like Canon rebates are coming.
    (http://www.bobatkins.com/photography/digital/rebates.html).

    Given that you can get off as much as $600 US, I wonder if this lends
    more weight to a 5D replacement/upgrade early in '07? Can also get a
    relatively hefty amount off on a 30D.
    Perhaps this is the time when the 10D->20D->30D line goes away and is
    replaced by a full frame lower model as others have speculated here?
    Perhaps we will see a 13MP 'basic' 5D and a 17MP souped up 5D? One
    thing that is curious is that there are no rebates on the 1D's . It
    would make sense that if there was to be a 17MP 5D then the 1Ds would
    get more MP's.

    Any thoughts?

    W
    W, Oct 15, 2006
    #1
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  2. W

    ASAAR Guest

    On 14 Oct 2006 17:53:12 -0700, W wrote:

    > Looks like Canon rebates are coming.
    > (http://www.bobatkins.com/photography/digital/rebates.html).
    >
    > Given that you can get off as much as $600 US, I wonder if this lends
    > more weight to a 5D replacement/upgrade early in '07? Can also get a
    > relatively hefty amount off on a 30D.
    > Perhaps this is the time when the 10D->20D->30D line goes away and is
    > replaced by a full frame lower model as others have speculated here?
    > Perhaps we will see a 13MP 'basic' 5D and a 17MP souped up 5D? One
    > thing that is curious is that there are no rebates on the 1D's . It
    > would make sense that if there was to be a 17MP 5D then the 1Ds would
    > get more MP's.
    >
    > Any thoughts?


    Canon is probably trying to keep its market share from eroding.
    Canon doesn't have to provide rebates for the 1Ds because more than
    its other cameras, they are bought because they're necessary, and
    (within reason) its price is willingly paid, mostly by pros. The 5D
    on the other hand, has been bought by many more amateurs. Going by
    many of this ng's messages after the 5D was available, many said
    that they'd like to get one, but for various reasons, they'd wait
    for the price to drop. Not by a few hundreds of dollars but by a
    more substantial amount. Now that most of the impulse purchases
    have been made, the price has been further lowered through the use
    of rebates and the 5D can be bought by those that were put off by
    its high initial price.

    The various rebates might be paving the way for introductions of
    new models, but that's not necessary. They also are useful weapons
    that Canon can use to beat back sales of the many new DSLRs that
    have been recently introduced by other manufacturers. If these
    hadn't been introduced, Canon would have less incentive to provide
    the rebates. It may result in reduced profits per camera, but more
    importantly, it should help Canon maintain its dominant position
    with respect to market share.
    ASAAR, Oct 15, 2006
    #2
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  3. W

    Mark² Guest

    W wrote:
    > Folks,
    >
    > Looks like Canon rebates are coming.
    > (http://www.bobatkins.com/photography/digital/rebates.html).
    >
    > Given that you can get off as much as $600 US, I wonder if this lends
    > more weight to a 5D replacement/upgrade early in '07? Can also get a
    > relatively hefty amount off on a 30D.
    > Perhaps this is the time when the 10D->20D->30D line goes away and is
    > replaced by a full frame lower model as others have speculated here?
    > Perhaps we will see a 13MP 'basic' 5D and a 17MP souped up 5D? One
    > thing that is curious is that there are no rebates on the 1D's . It
    > would make sense that if there was to be a 17MP 5D then the 1Ds would
    > get more MP's.
    >
    > Any thoughts?


    There have been rebates on the 5D for more than 6 months...so it's nothing
    new. There was a $300 rebate on mine when I bought it. What is slightly
    new is the possibility of a larger rebate when purchased with another item.
    I am very happy with my 5D, but it wouldn't surprise me to see something in
    February for either the 5D, the 30D or both. 5D's were out of stock at B&H
    today, though that may simply be due to demand. They are selling a LOT of
    5Ds...

    If I had my wish (though it wouldn't make me sell my 5D), the 5D would morph
    into a solid unit with a built-in vertical grip...like the 1D
    series...rather than the added grip unit it now can sport. The 5D as
    is...is quite compelling, and has no equal from any other company.
    Full-frame is (amazingly) still an uncontested segment for Canon. If Canon
    replaces the 1Ds, it would make sense that the 5D replacement might inherit
    the 16MP as a way to separate it further from the nearly sure-to-come 10MP
    sensor replacement in whatever bumps the 30D.

    If you're teetering on whether to purchase the 5D...I can say without a
    doubt that it is alrady a truly fantastic camera that is arguably the best
    imaging device of ANY 35mm DSLR--with even better prospects for low-light
    than the amazing 1Ds Mark II. You'll have to be one FINE photographer to
    take advantage of whatever incremental advancement that may be present in
    its replacement...and you'll pay top dollar for it whenever it does come.

    --
    Images (Plus Snaps & Grabs) by Mark² at:
    www.pbase.com/markuson
    Mark², Oct 15, 2006
    #3
  4. W

    Eric Miller Guest

    > If you're teetering on whether to purchase the 5D...I can say without a
    > doubt that it is alrady a truly fantastic camera that is arguably the best
    > imaging device of ANY 35mm DSLR--with even better prospects for low-light
    > than the amazing 1Ds Mark II. You'll have to be one FINE photographer to
    > take advantage of whatever incremental advancement that may be present in
    > its replacement...and you'll pay top dollar for it whenever it does come.
    >


    Looking at the past as prologue on a 5D replacement, I'd have to say
    that "top dollar" probably means less than the current price of the 5D.
    We're all just speculating of course, but the 20D/30D cost less now than
    the 10D did when it was introduced. The 10D/D60 cost much less than the
    D30's introductory price. The performance and features went up and the
    price went down. If the 5D targets "prosumers'" (any advice on
    apostrophe + quotation placement is welcome) desire for a full frame
    camera, then I would expect (but I have no special knowledge in this
    area of speculation) its replacement to add megapixels or features, or
    both, and be introduced at a price that is somewhat less than the 5D's
    current price, at least. IF that happens, anyone who purchases a 5D now
    (unless he has a critical emergent need) will probably wish he'd waited
    until after the replacement is announced for either a discount on the 5D
    or more features/megapixels for the same price or better.

    Anyway, that is the boat that I am in. Do I buy the 5D now (I think I'd
    be happy with the camera) or just stick with the 10D until March '07 and
    buy a 5D then. I'm betting the cost for the camera will come down, and,
    if I am lucky, I will be deciding between a full-frame, 16 megapixel
    camera for about the same price or a reduced price 5D. Worst case, I
    wait 'til the spring rebates. And, there is always the possibility that
    a competitor's announcement in February (GO NIKON!) will force Canon to
    reduce the 5D price with an even better rebate even if there is no 5D
    replacement.

    Of course, I could just wait forever and watch prices fall and sensors
    improve without ever buying one, but I am only concerned about the
    potential for saving money and/or getting a better camera sometime
    within the next 6 months.

    Eric Miller
    Eric Miller, Oct 16, 2006
    #4
  5. W

    Mark² Guest

    Eric Miller wrote:
    >> If you're teetering on whether to purchase the 5D...I can say
    >> without a doubt that it is alrady a truly fantastic camera that is
    >> arguably the best imaging device of ANY 35mm DSLR--with even better
    >> prospects for low-light than the amazing 1Ds Mark II. You'll have
    >> to be one FINE photographer to take advantage of whatever
    >> incremental advancement that may be present in its replacement...and
    >> you'll pay top dollar for it whenever it does come.

    >
    > Looking at the past as prologue on a 5D replacement, I'd have to say
    > that "top dollar" probably means less than the current price of the
    > 5D. We're all just speculating of course, but the 20D/30D cost less
    > now than the 10D did when it was introduced.


    Totally different marketing situation though...so don't bet on it.
    There is no competition in teh full frame market right now. The 10D/20D/30D
    were always going head-to-head with entries from Nikon and others.

    Take a look at what the other full-frame digital from Canon did, you'll see
    that the price was actually higher...and remains higher to this day (About
    $7K for the 1Ds Mark II).

    >The 10D/D60 cost much
    > less than the D30's introductory price. The performance and features
    > went up and the price went down. If the 5D targets "prosumers'" (any
    > advice on apostrophe + quotation placement is welcome) desire for a
    > full frame camera, then I would expect (but I have no special
    > knowledge in this area of speculation) its replacement to add
    > megapixels or features, or both, and be introduced at a price that is
    > somewhat less than the 5D's current price, at least.


    If you mean the actual price NOW...after rebates and discounts...I wouldn't
    bet on that at all.

    >IF that happens,
    > anyone who purchases a 5D now (unless he has a critical emergent
    > need) will probably wish he'd waited until after the replacement is
    > announced for either a discount on the 5D or more features/megapixels
    > for the same price or better.


    That's always a possibility.

    My only wishes for the 5D are a built-in vertical grip, and weather sealing
    (and of course the romoval or reconfiguration of the utterly useless print
    button).

    > Anyway, that is the boat that I am in. Do I buy the 5D now (I think
    > I'd be happy with the camera) or just stick with the 10D until March
    > '07 and buy a 5D then. I'm betting the cost for the camera will come
    > down, and, if I am lucky, I will be deciding between a full-frame, 16
    > megapixel camera for about the same price or a reduced price 5D.
    > Worst case, I wait 'til the spring rebates. And, there is always the
    > possibility that a competitor's announcement in February (GO NIKON!)
    > will force Canon to reduce the 5D price with an even better rebate
    > even if there is no 5D replacement.


    Unless you're printing HUGE enlargements...or you tend to do a lot of
    cropping...you may not have much reason to dump your 10D yet. I also have a
    10D... I frankly haven't shot with it since I got the 5D. Were it a 20D, I
    would be using it for the high frame rate...but the 10D and 5D are basically
    the same in that regard.

    > Of course, I could just wait forever and watch prices fall and sensors
    > improve without ever buying one, but I am only concerned about the
    > potential for saving money and/or getting a better camera sometime
    > within the next 6 months.


    You'll probably only have to wait until February...at least to see what is
    or is not coming around the corner.
    I'd probably wait if I was in your position, but I don't know your needs...

    Mark²
    --
    Images (Plus Snaps & Grabs) by Mark² at:
    www.pbase.com/markuson
    Mark², Oct 16, 2006
    #5
  6. W wrote:
    > Folks,
    >
    > Looks like Canon rebates are coming.
    > (http://www.bobatkins.com/photography/digital/rebates.html).
    >
    > Given that you can get off as much as $600 US, I wonder if this lends
    > more weight to a 5D replacement/upgrade early in '07? Can also get a
    > relatively hefty amount off on a 30D.
    > Perhaps this is the time when the 10D->20D->30D line goes away and is
    > replaced by a full frame lower model as others have speculated here?
    > Perhaps we will see a 13MP 'basic' 5D and a 17MP souped up 5D? One
    > thing that is curious is that there are no rebates on the 1D's . It
    > would make sense that if there was to be a 17MP 5D then the 1Ds would
    > get more MP's.
    >
    > Any thoughts?
    >
    > W
    >

    Maybe Canon wants to start selling the 5D ($350 CDN rebate). It isn't
    exactly flying off the shelves, in fact even the 30D sales have slowed.
    In Canada Canon has a $240 CDN rebate on the 30D plus a $40 rebate on
    the 28~135 IS lens, to try to sell them. Rebates usually indicate that
    the item isn't selling well.
    Not Disclosed, Oct 16, 2006
    #6
  7. W

    Kinon O'cann Guest

    My guesses:

    Canon will not introduce any new SLRs until they have some competition. Look
    at their top-end lineup now:

    1. 1DsII: professional level weather sealed full frame 16.7M SLR. There's
    nothing out there that's even close, and nothing on the radar.

    2. 1DIIn: high-speed professional action-oriented SLR. Closest competition
    is the Nikon D2X, which achieves equivilant frame rates by cropping it's
    already cropped sensor. the D2H is half the resolution, so it's just as fast
    with half the resolution, and less capable in low-light.

    3. 5D: high-end consumer cam, full frame, 12.8M. No equivilants on the
    market.

    Why would Canon introduce anything new when they already dominate the
    market? Why not wait, see what the competition does, or may do, and then
    leap-frog them? This is what they did with the 1DII. Nikon introduced their
    D2H, and then Canon introduced the 1DII in very short order, totally
    trumping the D2H. I think they'll bring new cams to market when they need
    to.
    Kinon O'cann, Oct 16, 2006
    #7
  8. W

    W Guest

    Well, I think Canon probably still wants to ensure that they stay
    ahead. After all, since there are no other FF 35mm out there, then they
    would not have 'needed' to go from 1Ds->1DsII, but they wanted to
    maintain there leadership. Regarding the 5D while I agree that there is
    no direct competition, I cannot help but believe that there are folks
    out there who see the D200 as competition....folks that aren't that
    concerned with FF that is. Canon could even 'get through' to those
    folks by upping the sensor from 12MP to 16MP. After all, the chip is
    the same size so the cost shouldn't be that much more. Of course they
    would want to up the MP on the 1Ds series in that case most likely.
    Anyway, time will tell and it's fun speculating about it in the mean
    time!

    Kinon O'cann wrote:
    > My guesses:
    >
    > Canon will not introduce any new SLRs until they have some competition. Look
    > at their top-end lineup now:
    >
    > 1. 1DsII: professional level weather sealed full frame 16.7M SLR. There's
    > nothing out there that's even close, and nothing on the radar.
    >
    > 2. 1DIIn: high-speed professional action-oriented SLR. Closest competition
    > is the Nikon D2X, which achieves equivilant frame rates by cropping it's
    > already cropped sensor. the D2H is half the resolution, so it's just as fast
    > with half the resolution, and less capable in low-light.
    >
    > 3. 5D: high-end consumer cam, full frame, 12.8M. No equivilants on the
    > market.
    >
    > Why would Canon introduce anything new when they already dominate the
    > market? Why not wait, see what the competition does, or may do, and then
    > leap-frog them? This is what they did with the 1DII. Nikon introduced their
    > D2H, and then Canon introduced the 1DII in very short order, totally
    > trumping the D2H. I think they'll bring new cams to market when they need
    > to.
    W, Oct 17, 2006
    #8
  9. W

    Mark² Guest

    Not Disclosed wrote:
    > W wrote:
    >> Folks,
    >>
    >> Looks like Canon rebates are coming.
    >> (http://www.bobatkins.com/photography/digital/rebates.html).
    >>
    >> Given that you can get off as much as $600 US, I wonder if this lends
    >> more weight to a 5D replacement/upgrade early in '07? Can also get a
    >> relatively hefty amount off on a 30D.
    >> Perhaps this is the time when the 10D->20D->30D line goes away and is
    >> replaced by a full frame lower model as others have speculated here?
    >> Perhaps we will see a 13MP 'basic' 5D and a 17MP souped up 5D? One
    >> thing that is curious is that there are no rebates on the 1D's . It
    >> would make sense that if there was to be a 17MP 5D then the 1Ds would
    >> get more MP's.
    >>
    >> Any thoughts?
    >>
    >> W
    >>

    > Maybe Canon wants to start selling the 5D ($350 CDN rebate). It isn't
    > exactly flying off the shelves, in fact even the 30D sales have
    > slowed. In Canada Canon has a $240 CDN rebate on the 30D plus a $40
    > rebate on the 28~135 IS lens, to try to sell them. Rebates usually
    > indicate that the item isn't selling well.


    The 5D has been selling VERY well.
    As a matter of fact, it was OUT OF STOCK at B&H until today (Monday), and
    they carry arguably hte largest stock of any store in the world.

    --
    Images (Plus Snaps & Grabs) by Mark² at:
    www.pbase.com/markuson
    Mark², Oct 17, 2006
    #9
  10. W

    Mark² Guest

    Kinon O'cann wrote:
    > My guesses:
    >
    > Canon will not introduce any new SLRs until they have some
    > competition. Look at their top-end lineup now:
    >
    > 1. 1DsII: professional level weather sealed full frame 16.7M SLR.
    > There's nothing out there that's even close, and nothing on the radar.
    >
    > 2. 1DIIn: high-speed professional action-oriented SLR. Closest
    > competition is the Nikon D2X, which achieves equivilant frame rates
    > by cropping it's already cropped sensor. the D2H is half the
    > resolution, so it's just as fast with half the resolution, and less
    > capable in low-light.
    > 3. 5D: high-end consumer cam, full frame, 12.8M. No equivilants on the
    > market.
    >
    > Why would Canon introduce anything new when they already dominate the
    > market? Why not wait, see what the competition does, or may do, and
    > then leap-frog them? This is what they did with the 1DII. Nikon
    > introduced their D2H, and then Canon introduced the 1DII in very
    > short order, totally trumping the D2H. I think they'll bring new cams
    > to market when they need to.


    Canon is smart enough to realize they are now snagging a LARGE number of
    medium format folks who have recognised the quality of their full-frames. I
    personally know 4 people who have dumped their MF for Canon full-frame...two
    of which use the 5D. This alone may well be reason enough for Canon to keep
    pushing, because the "competition" now extends to offerings from Mamiya,
    Hassy and others now. Nikon is well behind them (with NO FF offering) so
    they are likely expanding their definition of "the competition"...and wisely
    so.

    Beyond that...Canon just introduced their Digic III processor, which will
    surely make its way into their top-line bodies before long. This could mean
    maintaining 8.5fps on the 1D Mark II while still grabbing higher MP...or
    perhaps bump the new full-frame up a couple frames per second... It will be
    interesting to see where they use this new speed.

    Mark

    --
    Images (Plus Snaps & Grabs) by Mark² at:
    www.pbase.com/markuson
    Mark², Oct 17, 2006
    #10
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