Blu-ray's new battlefield

Discussion in 'DVD Video' started by Dave U.Random, Feb 20, 2008.

  1. "Blu-ray has won the high-def war. But with challenges from low-
    end DVD players, digital distribution, and more, a new
    battlefield is forming..."

    Business Week article: http://easyurl.net/battlefield
     
    Dave U.Random, Feb 20, 2008
    #1
    1. Advertising

  2. Dave U.Random

    Guest

    On Feb 20, 12:14 pm, Dave U.Random <anonym...@anonymitaet-im-
    inter.net> wrote:
    > "Blu-ray has won the high-def war. But with challenges from low-
    > end DVD players, digital distribution, and more, a new
    > battlefield is forming..."
    >
    > Business Week article:http://easyurl.net/battlefield


    I think that unless blu-ray discs and players come down to a
    comparable price to standard dvds and players, then it will be just a
    niche market like laserdisc was. I just don't see standard dvds going
    away anytime soon.
     
    , Feb 20, 2008
    #2
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  3. Dave U.Random

    Doug Jacobs Guest

    In alt.games.video.xbox wrote:
    > I think that unless blu-ray discs and players come down to a
    > comparable price to standard dvds and players, then it will be just a
    > niche market like laserdisc was. I just don't see standard dvds going
    > away anytime soon.


    With the death of HD-DVD, blu-ray should be able to get greater sales
    which should help push prices down in the months and years to come.

    Even then, the market for blu-ray is going to be constrained by the size
    of the hdtv market. Right now, HDTV has a penetration of, what, 25% at
    best? That would mean that at its best, Blu-Ray is realistically
    constrained to 25% of the home video market. Even then, not everyone who
    owns a HDTV will buy a blu-ray player even if they do come down in price.

    Unless the studios aggressively move to blu-ray, and stop doing new
    releases on DVD altogether, blu-ray could very well end up being the new
    laserdisk even if movies are priced comparably to the DVD version.

    --
    It's not broken. It's...advanced.
     
    Doug Jacobs, Feb 21, 2008
    #3
  4. Doug Jacobs wrote:
    >
    > With the death of HD-DVD, blu-ray should be able to get greater sales
    > which should help push prices down in the months and years to come.
    >
    > Even then, the market for blu-ray is going to be constrained by the size
    > of the hdtv market. Right now, HDTV has a penetration of, what, 25% at
    > best?


    What was it the last time you posted this, 8%?

    (And yeah, we Patriots fans are still P.O.'ed about the Super Bowl, but
    at least if you bought one because of it, it was still worth it.)

    > That would mean that at its best, Blu-Ray is realistically
    > constrained to 25% of the home video market. Even then, not everyone who
    > owns a HDTV will buy a blu-ray player even if they do come down in price.
    >
    > Unless the studios aggressively move to blu-ray, and stop doing new
    > releases on DVD altogether, blu-ray could very well end up being the new
    > laserdisk even if movies are priced comparably to the DVD version.


    People didn't buy laserdisk in the mid-80's because it "didn't record"--
    They "won't buy" Blu as opposed to regular DVD because it
    doesn't...what, exactly?

    Derek Janssen (watch, he's going to say "Because it doesn't COST as
    much! :p ")
     
    Derek Janssen, Feb 21, 2008
    #4
  5. Dave U.Random

    Guest

    On Feb 20, 4:47 pm, wrote:
    > I think that unless blu-ray discs and players come down to a
    > comparable price to standard dvds and players, then it will be just a
    > niche market like laserdisc was. I just don't see standard dvds going
    > away anytime soon.


    I don't really see that as affecting anything. Just because SD-DVD
    sticks around doesn't mean that BluRay won't become a huge market on
    its own. There was a time when DVD was predicted to replace the CD-
    ROM as the de facto storage medium, even for Audio. This didn't
    happen, there are still some cases were a CD is just more economical.
    However, that doesn't mean that DVD didn't take off by leaps and
    bounds

    --

    Aaron J. Bossig

    http://www.GodsLabRat.com
     
    , Feb 21, 2008
    #5
  6. Dave U.Random

    Amused Guest

    "Doug Jacobs" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    > In alt.games.video.xbox wrote:
    >> I think that unless blu-ray discs and players come down to a
    >> comparable price to standard dvds and players, then it will be just a
    >> niche market like laserdisc was. I just don't see standard dvds going
    >> away anytime soon.

    >
    > With the death of HD-DVD, blu-ray should be able to get greater sales
    > which should help push prices down in the months and years to come.
    >
    > Even then, the market for blu-ray is going to be constrained by the size
    > of the hdtv market. Right now, HDTV has a penetration of, what, 25% at
    > best? That would mean that at its best, Blu-Ray is realistically
    > constrained to 25% of the home video market. Even then, not everyone who
    > owns a HDTV will buy a blu-ray player even if they do come down in price.
    >
    > Unless the studios aggressively move to blu-ray, and stop doing new
    > releases on DVD altogether, blu-ray could very well end up being the new
    > laserdisk even if movies are priced comparably to the DVD version.
    >
    > --
    > It's not broken. It's...advanced.



    The VCR/VHS was a gigantic installed market...probably approaching 20 years.
    Standard DVD's only began installation, what?, six or eight years ago. It
    took at least five years before the DVD became dominate. The observation
    about the dance between HDTV and Blu-RAy DVD's is right on the money.

    Forget the TV commercials. Go to Walmart. There might be one or two
    standard TV's but almost all of the new TV's are HDTV As these penetrate
    the market, there's going to be a rising expectation of HD programming. And
    while everyone is carrying on about video over the internet, as the demand
    for HD programming increases, the video over the internet has a basic
    limitation and that's the old bandwidth problem. HD files are HUGE files.
    And while the answer, ie. fiber optics is out there, there's forty years
    worth of copper (tv cable) that will have to be replaced, INCLUDING, the
    "final mile".

    Bottom line. "They've" almost stopped manufacturing VCR's. In a couple of
    year's they'll stop manufacturing Standard DVD players.

    Give it five years, and Standard DVD's will be as "old-fashioned" as VCR
    tapes are today.

    Question is....what comes after Blu-Rays? Solid state?
     
    Amused, Feb 21, 2008
    #6
  7. Dave U.Random

    Tom Guest

    On Feb 20, 11:30 pm, "Amused" <> wrote:
    > "Doug Jacobs" <> wrote in message
    >
    > news:...
    >
    >
    >
    > > In alt.games.video.xbox wrote:
    > >> I think that unless blu-ray discs and players come down to a
    > >> comparable price to standard dvds and players, then it will be just a
    > >> niche market like laserdisc was. I just don't see standard dvds going
    > >> away anytime soon.

    >
    > > With the death of HD-DVD, blu-ray should be able to get greater sales
    > > which should help push prices down in the months and years to come.

    >
    > > Even then, the market for blu-ray is going to be constrained by the size
    > > of the hdtv market. Right now, HDTV has a penetration of, what, 25% at
    > > best? That would mean that at its best, Blu-Ray is realistically
    > > constrained to 25% of the home video market. Even then, not everyone who
    > > owns a HDTV will buy a blu-ray player even if they do come down in price.

    >
    > > Unless the studios aggressively move to blu-ray, and stop doing new
    > > releases on DVD altogether, blu-ray could very well end up being the new
    > > laserdisk even if movies are priced comparably to the DVD version.

    >
    > > --
    > > It's not broken. It's...advanced.

    >
    > The VCR/VHS was a gigantic installed market...probably approaching 20 years.
    > Standard DVD's only began installation, what?, six or eight years ago. It
    > took at least five years before the DVD became dominate. The observation
    > about the dance between HDTV and Blu-RAy DVD's is right on the money.
    >
    > Forget the TV commercials. Go to Walmart. There might be one or two
    > standard TV's but almost all of the new TV's are HDTV As these penetrate
    > the market, there's going to be a rising expectation of HD programming. And
    > while everyone is carrying on about video over the internet, as the demand
    > for HD programming increases, the video over the internet has a basic
    > limitation and that's the old bandwidth problem. HD files are HUGE files.
    > And while the answer, ie. fiber optics is out there, there's forty years
    > worth of copper (tv cable) that will have to be replaced, INCLUDING, the
    > "final mile".
    >
    > Bottom line. "They've" almost stopped manufacturing VCR's. In a couple of
    > year's they'll stop manufacturing Standard DVD players.
    >
    > Give it five years, and Standard DVD's will be as "old-fashioned" as VCR
    > tapes are today.
    >
    > Question is....what comes after Blu-Rays? Solid state?


    Solid State would be great as 32gig units are already available for
    use in laptops, though they are kind of pricey. I can see games being
    placed on 15gig units as cheaply as they are on DVD today, and the
    load times are as fast as your processing speed is on the device for
    GPUs and CPUs, blowing away the reading device (DVD type drvies)
    which have to then transfer the data to the hardware on the console/
    PC. The read would be almost instantaneous. Best part is, there are no
    moving parts, so no wear and tear on the unit, nor on the reading
    device.
     
    Tom, Feb 21, 2008
    #7
  8. Dave U.Random

    J Brockley Guest

    <> wrote in message
    news:...
    On Feb 20, 12:14 pm, Dave U.Random <anonym...@anonymitaet-im-
    inter.net> wrote:
    > "Blu-ray has won the high-def war. But with challenges from low-
    > end DVD players, digital distribution, and more, a new
    > battlefield is forming..."
    >
    > Business Week article:http://easyurl.net/battlefield


    > I think that unless blu-ray discs and players come down to a
    > comparable price to standard dvds and players, then it will be just a
    > niche market like laserdisc was. I just don't see standard dvds going
    > away anytime soon.



    I think now the uncertainty has gone cheap blu ray players arein inevitable,
    its only a matter of time before cheap Chinese players start appearing. They
    don't have to be as cheap as DVD either just close enough to make it "a may
    as well have it" type decision.
     
    J Brockley, Feb 21, 2008
    #8
  9. Dave U.Random

    Telstar Guest


    > Forget the TV commercials. Go to Walmart. There might be one or two
    > standard TV's but almost all of the new TV's are HDTV As these penetrate
    > the market, there's going to be a rising expectation of HD programming.


    No they won't. The Wal Mart types just want a new TV. They have absolutely
    no sense of what HD is. This has been demonstrated in interview after
    interview.
     
    Telstar, Feb 21, 2008
    #9
  10. Dave U.Random

    Telstar Guest

    "J Brockley" <> wrote in message
    news:fpj3ai$nnn$...
    >
    > <> wrote in message
    > news:...
    > On Feb 20, 12:14 pm, Dave U.Random <anonym...@anonymitaet-im-
    > inter.net> wrote:
    >> "Blu-ray has won the high-def war. But with challenges from low-
    >> end DVD players, digital distribution, and more, a new
    >> battlefield is forming..."
    >>
    >> Business Week article:http://easyurl.net/battlefield

    >
    >> I think that unless blu-ray discs and players come down to a
    >> comparable price to standard dvds and players, then it will be just a
    >> niche market like laserdisc was. I just don't see standard dvds going
    >> away anytime soon.

    >
    >
    > I think now the uncertainty has gone cheap blu ray players arein
    > inevitable, its only a matter of time before cheap Chinese players start
    > appearing. They don't have to be as cheap as DVD either just close enough
    > to make it "a may as well have it" type decision.
    >


    The Chinese have already trashed that idea. There are too many royalties to
    be paid. A recent article states that they have made almost no money off of
    DVD hardware...and are thinking of staying out of the next gen.
     
    Telstar, Feb 21, 2008
    #10
  11. On Feb 20, 10:30 pm, "Amused" <> wrote:
    > "Doug Jacobs" <> wrote in message
    >
    > news:...
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > > In alt.games.video.xbox wrote:
    > >> I think that unless blu-ray discs and players come down to a
    > >> comparable price to standard dvds and players, then it will be just a
    > >> niche market like laserdisc was.  I just don't see standard dvds going
    > >> away anytime soon.

    >
    > > With the death of HD-DVD, blu-ray should be able to get greater sales
    > > which should help push prices down in the months and years to come.

    >
    > > Even then, the market for blu-ray is going to be constrained by the size
    > > of the hdtv market.  Right now, HDTV has a penetration of, what, 25% at
    > > best?  That would mean that at its best, Blu-Ray is realistically
    > > constrained to 25% of the home video market.  Even then, not everyone who
    > > owns a HDTV will buy a blu-ray player even if they do come down in price..

    >
    > > Unless the studios aggressively move to blu-ray, and stop doing new
    > > releases on DVD altogether, blu-ray could very well end up being the new
    > > laserdisk even if movies are priced comparably to the DVD version.

    >
    > > --
    > > It's not broken.  It's...advanced.

    >
    > The VCR/VHS was a gigantic installed market...probably approaching 20 years.
    > Standard DVD's only began installation, what?, six or eight years ago.  It
    > took at least five years before the DVD became dominate.  The observation
    > about the dance between HDTV and Blu-RAy DVD's is right on the money.
    >
    > Forget the TV commercials.  Go to Walmart.  There might be one or two
    > standard TV's but almost all of the new TV's are HDTV  As these penetrate
    > the market, there's going to be a rising expectation of HD programming.  And
    > while everyone is carrying on about video over the internet, as the demand
    > for HD programming increases, the video over the internet has a basic
    > limitation and that's the old bandwidth problem.  HD files are HUGE files.
    > And while the answer, ie. fiber optics is out there, there's forty years
    > worth of copper (tv cable) that will have to be replaced, INCLUDING, the
    > "final mile".
    >
    > Bottom line.  "They've" almost stopped manufacturing VCR's.  In a couple of
    > year's they'll stop manufacturing Standard DVD players.
    >
    > Give it five years, and Standard DVD's will be as "old-fashioned" as VCR
    > tapes are today.
    >
    > Question is....what comes after Blu-Rays?  Solid state?- Hide quoted text -
    >
    > - Show quoted text -


    And all those folks that buy HD TVs at Wal-mart will hook their
    existing DVD player up, through a composite cord, and say "damn, that
    looks a lot better, who needs a Blu-ray player". Let alone the ones
    that use component or HDMI and an upconverter.

    I'm constantly amazed at how good my DVDs look on my HDTV. I can't
    really see any improvement I'll get from Blu-ray. As has been said
    before, the vast majority of folks won't see any visual improvement
    from Blu-rays, mainly because of the size of their TV, and distance
    they sit from it.

    What is market penetration of 50"+ HDTVs? Those are the only folks
    that will really see much of anything from Blu-ray.

    -r
     
    Rastus O'Ginga, Feb 21, 2008
    #11
  12. On Feb 20, 11:48 pm, "J Brockley" <> wrote:
    > <> wrote in message
    >
    > news:...
    > On Feb 20, 12:14 pm, Dave U.Random <anonym...@anonymitaet-im-
    >
    > inter.net> wrote:
    > > "Blu-ray has won the high-def war. But with challenges from low-
    > > end DVD players, digital distribution, and more, a new
    > > battlefield is forming..."

    >
    > > Business Week article:http://easyurl.net/battlefield
    > > I think that unless blu-ray discs and players come down to a
    > > comparable price to standard dvds and players, then it will be just a
    > > niche market like laserdisc was.  I just don't see standard dvds going
    > > away anytime soon.

    >
    > I think now the uncertainty has gone cheap blu ray players arein inevitable,
    > its only a matter of time before cheap Chinese players start appearing. They
    > don't have to be as cheap as DVD either just close enough to make it "a may
    > as well have it" type decision.


    Why do so many people say this. Do you think Sony sacrificed their
    game console lead to sell low-end Blu-ray disc and players? It was a
    move to get a monopoly and make money on premiums for years to come.
    It is an impossibility that a standard controlled by Sony will ever be
    as cheap as an industry standard like DVD. If anything, I'd expect
    the average prices to now go up for Blu-rays. And I don't see a
    reasonably priced Blu-ray recorder happening anytime soon, which is a
    HUGE detriment to the format.

    -r
     
    Rastus O'Ginga, Feb 21, 2008
    #12
  13. Dave U.Random

    Doug Jacobs Guest

    In alt.games.video.xbox Amused <> wrote:

    > Forget the TV commercials. Go to Walmart. There might be one or two
    > standard TV's but almost all of the new TV's are HDTV As these penetrate
    > the market, there's going to be a rising expectation of HD programming. And
    > while everyone is carrying on about video over the internet, as the demand
    > for HD programming increases, the video over the internet has a basic
    > limitation and that's the old bandwidth problem. HD files are HUGE files.
    > And while the answer, ie. fiber optics is out there, there's forty years
    > worth of copper (tv cable) that will have to be replaced, INCLUDING, the
    > "final mile".


    Yes, I've been to Walmart. Yes I've seen their selection of TVs.

    However, I don't see the hordes of customers marching in one side of
    Walmart, and leaving with a HDTV tucked under their arm. Sure people are
    buying HDTVs and market penetration will only continue to increase
    (probably make some really big leaps starting next year...) However it's
    still going to take years - I think 7-10 years - for HDTVs to be in the
    vast majority of households.

    As for internet access, you are aware that the majority of the US still
    has no broadband coverage, right? Dial-up still represents a sizeable
    chunk of customers. In this area, the US is lagging behind other
    countries where cheap fast internet is as available as readily as
    electricity.

    > Bottom line. "They've" almost stopped manufacturing VCR's. In a couple of
    > year's they'll stop manufacturing Standard DVD players.


    When they can make a blu-ray player that costs $35, SUVs have builtin
    blu-ray players, and blu-ray discs are outselling regular DVDs, sure. Until
    then, there'll still be a market for regular DVD players

    > Give it five years, and Standard DVD's will be as "old-fashioned" as VCR
    > tapes are today.


    Try 10. Remember, DVD came out around '94 or so. It wasn't until 2000
    when DVD players dropped low enough to really enter the mainstream that
    DVD sales started to skyrocket. Even then, there were still VHS releases
    until just a few years ago.

    Ther's also the fact that unlike the jump from VHS to DVD, the jump
    between DVD to Blu-Ray isn't as great - especially on smaller screens.
    Not everyone is going to have a 50" or larger 1080p display in their
    living room. Even on 1080p displays 40" or smaller, the difference
    between upscaled DVD and Blu-Ray becomes less and less noticable.
    Considering that even now, many people think just plugging in their old SD
    cable into a HDTV means they're automatically watching "HD", it's going to
    be a hard sell to get these people to fork over even a few hundred dollars
    to replace their $30 Walmart Special DVD player with a blu-ray player - not
    to mention to spend $5-10 more per movie for the blu-ray version.

    Sure, the studios could force the matter by simply dropping DVD
    altogether, but there's nothing to be gained by doing that as they'd only
    lose sales from folks who haven't upgraded.

    For the home thater enthusiast, sure, blu-ray is a good thing. But to
    think it's going to completely dominate the market like DVD has in only a
    few years is just not realistic. In fact, blu-ray may never gain the same
    market share that DVD has, but that doesn't mean it'll be a failure.

    > Question is....what comes after Blu-Rays? Solid state?


    Could be soild state (ROM capacities are certainly getting
    there...manufacturing cost is the biggest hurdle though.) Holographic
    storage is another promising medium. Terabytes in a cubic inch of plastic!

    Could be higher-resolution TV (Japan is already experimenting with newer
    resolutions that could deliver another 6x jump over 1080p...)

    Could even be something like 3d displays - which would require a new video
    format, if not a whole new medium.

    --
    It's not broken. It's...advanced.
     
    Doug Jacobs, Feb 21, 2008
    #13
  14. Dave U.Random

    Doug Jacobs Guest

    In alt.games.video.xbox Telstar <> wrote:

    > The Chinese have already trashed that idea. There are too many royalties to
    > be paid. A recent article states that they have made almost no money off of
    > DVD hardware...and are thinking of staying out of the next gen.


    Wasn't there a cosortium in China to create their own "next gen" medium,
    which was essentially HD-on-regular-DVD? They were looking at higher
    compression and multiple discs for a movie though. In many ways, this
    would basically be HD equivelent of the VCD.

    --
    It's not broken. It's...advanced.
     
    Doug Jacobs, Feb 21, 2008
    #14
  15. Dave U.Random

    PapaBear Guest

    "Amused" <> wrote in message
    news:fpiuq7$e2q$...
    > ...Go to Walmart. There might be one or two standard TV's but almost all
    > of the new TV's are HDTV


    Well, I go out to Walmart fairly often and noticed that the standard TVs
    practically vanished for awhile, but they're coming back. I was out there a
    few days ago and they had a fairly good selection of standard TVs again,
    about 8-10 models on display. Sure, they're still showcasing the $500+ HD
    TVs but I haven't noticed anybody buying them. They're too expensive for the
    lowend Walmart crowd. I'll venture a guess that in another 6 months, the
    displays of standard TVs in the under $250 category will further increase at
    Walmart and elsewhere. I believe HD TVs can only win that game if their
    prices are greatly reduced, like by at least 50%.
     
    PapaBear, Feb 21, 2008
    #15
  16. Dave U.Random

    Doug Jacobs Guest

    In alt.games.video.xbox Rastus O'Ginga <> wrote:

    > Why do so many people say this. Do you think Sony sacrificed their
    > game console lead to sell low-end Blu-ray disc and players? It was a
    > move to get a monopoly and make money on premiums for years to come.
    > It is an impossibility that a standard controlled by Sony will ever be
    > as cheap as an industry standard like DVD. If anything, I'd expect
    > the average prices to now go up for Blu-rays. And I don't see a
    > reasonably priced Blu-ray recorder happening anytime soon, which is a
    > HUGE detriment to the format.


    Blu-ray isn't the sole property of Sony. Sony is more than welcome to
    continue producing $400+ blu-ray players, but eventually someone else
    in the consortium is going to decide to go after the mainstream market by
    producing a lower cost player. Even before HD-DVD was declared dead by
    Toshiba, there was already an announcement that advances in manufacturing
    blu-ray components will lead to lower costs for the companies which should
    in turn result in lower cost players.

    Even DVD didn't suddenly jump into the market at $200-300. It was years
    before we saw players drop below $500, much less $300 a few years after
    that. Blu-ray has only been on the market for just over a year now,
    compared to DVD's 10+ years of existence.

    I pretty much think we'll see $300 blu-ray players by the end of this year
    - even if the only one is the PS3 itself. By next year, I suspect will be
    when we'll start seeing stand-alone players being priced below the PS3 -
    just as DVD players eventually became cheaper than the PS2 in Japan.

    However, I expect that movies on blu-ray will always be more expensive
    than the same titles on DVD. The gap may narrow, but never fully go away.

    --
    It's not broken. It's...advanced.
     
    Doug Jacobs, Feb 21, 2008
    #16
  17. Dave U.Random

    Guest

    On Feb 21, 11:47 am, "Rastus O'Ginga" <>
    wrote:
    > Why do so many people say this. Do you think Sony sacrificed their
    > game console lead to sell low-end Blu-ray disc and players?


    That's exactly what I think. The only other conclusion is that Sony
    really didn't think that pricing their console several hundred dollars
    above their closest competition would cost them sales. I'm fairly
    confident that their marketing department knows they could have sold
    many, many more PS3s at $350 than they did at $600... but still, Sony
    insisted on using BluRay, which drove up the price of the unit.

    Seeing as a game console's realistic lifespan is five years, whereas a
    video format can last more than twenty, I think Sony went for the
    longer-term investment.

    > It was a
    > move to get a monopoly and make money on premiums for years to come.


    Premiums on what? Games or movies?

    > It is an impossibility that a standard controlled by Sony will ever be
    > as cheap as an industry standard like DVD.


    Sony owns DVD as much as they own Blu-Ray, which is to say, they
    don't. Both formats are controlled by an industry group, not one
    single company.

    >If anything, I'd expect
    > the average prices to now go up for Blu-rays.


    I'm still amazed that anyone can take this theory seriously. More and
    more CE companies are jumping on board to make Blu-Ray players and PC
    drives. The competition between those companies (coupled with more
    people buying into the format) will drive the prices DOWN.

    This isn't 2006. There is more than one company making BluRay
    hardware.

    >And I don't see a
    > reasonably priced Blu-ray recorder happening anytime soon, which is a
    > HUGE detriment to the format.


    DVD survived for almost half a decade before a "reasonably priced"
    recorder appeared. I'm pretty sure BluRay will follow a similar
    timetable.

    --

    Aaron "No, Chicken Little, the sky isn't falling" Bossig

    http://www.GodsLabRat.com
     
    , Feb 22, 2008
    #17
  18. wrote:

    > On Feb 21, 11:47 am, "Rastus O'Ginga" <>
    > wrote:
    >
    >>Why do so many people say this. Do you think Sony sacrificed their
    >>game console lead to sell low-end Blu-ray disc and players?

    >
    >
    > That's exactly what I think. The only other conclusion is that Sony
    > really didn't think that pricing their console several hundred dollars
    > above their closest competition would cost them sales. I'm fairly
    > confident that their marketing department knows they could have sold
    > many, many more PS3s at $350 than they did at $600... but still, Sony
    > insisted on using BluRay, which drove up the price of the unit.


    The whole point of a next-gen game was to play up to HDTV specs, so they
    were going to design for some Blu-style format regardless--
    However, there had to be some super-bowl nostalgia for Sony feeling that
    their PS2 had "invented" beginning DVD acceptance with the gamer-fans
    back in '98, and they weren't going to settle for add-on consoles this
    time, either.

    (Had they, in reality?--YMMV. A generation of PS2 fanboys of that day
    will immediately jump and devil-sign that they had, though, doodz!)

    >>If anything, I'd expect
    >>the average prices to now go up for Blu-rays.

    >
    > I'm still amazed that anyone can take this theory seriously. More and
    > more CE companies are jumping on board to make Blu-Ray players and PC
    > drives. The competition between those companies (coupled with more
    > people buying into the format) will drive the prices DOWN.


    And as has been mentioned <grooaaannn> REPEATEDLY!!!, it was the format
    war that kept prices *up*--
    Namely by keeping the assembly parts rare, the wholesale supply of disks
    low, the mood of third-party licensees timid, and adding more
    development and low-volume costs to pass along to the consumer.

    ....When there's only one kind of disk, it's easier to make more of them.
    We'll be happy to explain that in more detail, if the business-economics
    jargon is too complicated.

    Derek Janssen
     
    Derek Janssen, Feb 22, 2008
    #18
  19. Dave U.Random

    Telstar Guest

    You are correct. This is what I was indicating.

    "Doug Jacobs" <> wrote in message
    news:...
    > In alt.games.video.xbox Telstar <> wrote:
    >
    >> The Chinese have already trashed that idea. There are too many royalties
    >> to
    >> be paid. A recent article states that they have made almost no money off
    >> of
    >> DVD hardware...and are thinking of staying out of the next gen.

    >
    > Wasn't there a cosortium in China to create their own "next gen" medium,
    > which was essentially HD-on-regular-DVD? They were looking at higher
    > compression and multiple discs for a movie though. In many ways, this
    > would basically be HD equivelent of the VCD.
    >
    > --
    > It's not broken. It's...advanced.
     
    Telstar, Feb 22, 2008
    #19
  20. Dave U.Random

    J Brockley Guest

    "Telstar" <> wrote in message
    news:fpjde7$oko$...
    >
    > "J Brockley" <> wrote in message
    > news:fpj3ai$nnn$...
    >>
    >> <> wrote in message
    >> news:...
    >> On Feb 20, 12:14 pm, Dave U.Random <anonym...@anonymitaet-im-
    >> inter.net> wrote:
    >>> "Blu-ray has won the high-def war. But with challenges from low-
    >>> end DVD players, digital distribution, and more, a new
    >>> battlefield is forming..."
    >>>
    >>> Business Week article:http://easyurl.net/battlefield

    >>
    >>> I think that unless blu-ray discs and players come down to a
    >>> comparable price to standard dvds and players, then it will be just a
    >>> niche market like laserdisc was. I just don't see standard dvds going
    >>> away anytime soon.

    >>
    >>
    >> I think now the uncertainty has gone cheap blu ray players arein
    >> inevitable, its only a matter of time before cheap Chinese players start
    >> appearing. They don't have to be as cheap as DVD either just close enough
    >> to make it "a may as well have it" type decision.
    >>

    >
    > The Chinese have already trashed that idea. There are too many royalties
    > to be paid. A recent article states that they have made almost no money
    > off of DVD hardware...and are thinking of staying out of the next gen.
    >

    If there's one thing that certain they wont stay out.
    Another thing that's certain it'll take less time for the price to drop than
    it did for DVD.
    Not so certain is the whether it'll drop quite as low as DVD.
     
    J Brockley, Feb 22, 2008
    #20
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