Blu-ray Isn't Getting Much Traction

Discussion in 'DVD Video' started by Ted, May 12, 2008.

  1. Ted

    Ted Guest

    "...Blu-ray is fighting for acceptance at the very moment that
    cash-strapped consumers are pulling back. Meanwhile, Apple,
    Netflix, and Amazon.com are launching downloading and other
    services that could make Blu-ray obsolete before it has a chance
    to get traction. 'We see Blu-ray's window of opportunity closing
    very quickly,' says Jagdish Rebello, a director and principal
    analyst of iSuppli, a research firm. 'The question is: Does Blu-
    ray really matter?'..."

    Business Week article: http://xrl.us/Bluray
    Ted, May 12, 2008
    #1
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  2. Ted wrote:

    > "...Blu-ray is fighting for acceptance at the very moment that
    > cash-strapped consumers are pulling back. Meanwhile, Apple,
    > Netflix, and Amazon.com are launching downloading and other
    > services that could make Blu-ray obsolete before it has a chance
    > to get traction.


    I take it this article was written BEFORE Apple's download quarterlies
    came in under expectations, and Amazon's Unbox went through
    reorganization of their business policies?

    (Which are both business euphemisms for "flopped".)

    Derek Janssen
    Derek Janssen, May 12, 2008
    #2
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  3. Ted

    Guest

    On May 12, 5:51 pm, Derek Janssen <> wrote:
    > > "...Blu-ray is fighting for acceptance at the very moment that
    > > cash-strapped consumers are pulling back. Meanwhile, Apple,
    > > Netflix, and Amazon.com are launching downloading and other
    > > services that could make Blu-ray obsolete before it has a chance
    > > to get traction.

    >
    > I take it this article was written BEFORE Apple's download quarterlies
    > came in under expectations, and Amazon's Unbox went through
    > reorganization of their business policies?
    >
    > (Which are both business euphemisms for "flopped".)


    Dude, but an ANALYST said it! That means it's got to be true!

    --

    Aaron J. Bossig

    http://www.GodsLabRat.com
    , May 13, 2008
    #3
  4. Doug Jacobs wrote:

    > Ted <> wrote:
    >
    >>"...Blu-ray is fighting for acceptance at the very moment that
    >>cash-strapped consumers are pulling back. Meanwhile, Apple,
    >>Netflix, and Amazon.com are launching downloading and other
    >>services that could make Blu-ray obsolete before it has a chance
    >>to get traction. 'We see Blu-ray's window of opportunity closing
    >>very quickly,' says Jagdish Rebello, a director and principal
    >>analyst of iSuppli, a research firm. 'The question is: Does Blu-
    >>ray really matter?'..."
    >>
    >>Business Week article: http://xrl.us/Bluray

    >
    > I really don't understand why folks keep thinking downloads are, in any
    > way, going to make blu-ray "obsolete".
    >
    > If anything, downloads will make disc-rental-via-USPS obsolete.


    But not Blu-ray-via-USPS obsolete--

    (Unless, as is usually countered at this point in the argument, Santa
    Claus gets up one morning in his workshop, invents a spiffy new Faster
    Foolproof Hi-Capacity Internet out of thin air, and delivers it to every
    single person's home in the entire country sometime before the end of '08.)

    > Blu-ray, meanwhile, seems on track to become essentially this generation's
    > LaserDisk. That is, a format that is of interest to serious movie
    > collectors and home theater-philes, but really won't catch on with the
    > mass market.


    Again, even when LD was around, when was the last time YOU saw "Now
    available on Video and Laserdisk!" in TV ads?

    > Blu-ray won't be a failure, but I really don't think it'll replace DVD and
    > become the dominant format. For that to happen, the vast majority of the
    > mass market must switch over to HDTV, and that's going to take at least
    > another decade.


    Unless it turns out to be one *short* decade... :)

    Derek Janssen (like, one of those three-year-long decades)
    Derek Janssen, May 13, 2008
    #4
  5. Per Doug Jacobs:
    >If anything, downloads will make disc-rental-via-USPS obsolete.


    Understood that skimming the market is SOP and it's gonna be
    awhile.

    But in the long run, does anybody see anything that would keep
    Blu-Ray recordable disks' cost per gig from becoming competitive
    with the $.25 each DVD-R disks I get at Staples?
    --
    PeteCresswell
    (PeteCresswell), May 14, 2008
    #5
  6. Tarkus wrote:
    >
    >> (Unless, as is usually countered at this point in the argument, Santa
    >> Claus gets up one morning in his workshop, invents a spiffy new Faster
    >> Foolproof Hi-Capacity Internet out of thin air, and delivers it to
    >> every single person's home in the entire country sometime before the
    >> end of '08.)

    >
    > And Santa is going to have to remove bandwidth caps while he's at it.
    > Oh, and he has a whole lot of educating to do.


    Hope he got my letter about "Taking studio-DRM 24-hr./48-hr. viewer
    limitations off the copies", since I don't usually watch DVD's in one
    sitting.

    > These people who think downloads are taking over anytime soon are
    > delusional.


    Or else:
    A) Studio publicists, still dreaming of an industry that will someday be
    solely driven by pay-per-view (the active words being "Pay" and "Per"),
    like it used to be in those long ago VHS-rental glory days, back before
    everyone learned how to cultivate their own purchase shelf,

    B) Microsoft-subsidiary publicists, still hoping for etc., etc., with
    their *own* coding that didn't quite work out for HD-DVD,

    C) Supremely gullible media analysts, hoping to turn their basic
    tech-illiterate "What if the next new thing happens AGAIN all of a
    sudden, like it did the last two times? 0_0'' " insecurities into a
    *good* thing, by kissing up to every new announced technology like it's
    their greatest friend,

    or
    D) Old anti-Blu grudges, still wrapping themselves up in their tattered
    old Confederate "It's just a gamers' fad..." flag, and reminding
    themselves that they were probably *right* not to trust that
    rootkit-mongering Evil Sony all along.

    > Only the geekiest of geeks would even know how to download and watch
    > movies on their televisions, assuming the bandwidth is even available.
    > And are they going to buy it every time they want to watch it.
    > PPV has been around for a long, long time, and virtually everyone is
    > capable of using it, and yet, stores remain stocked with DVDs.


    And, if twenty years of cable/satellite is any indication, ten years of
    the DVD/Blu industry is not going to be singlehandedly put out of
    business by StarzHD On Demand.

    Derek Janssen (and they're one of the *good* channels)
    Derek Janssen, May 14, 2008
    #6
  7. (PeteCresswell) wrote:
    > Per Doug Jacobs:
    >
    >>If anything, downloads will make disc-rental-via-USPS obsolete.

    >
    >
    > Understood that skimming the market is SOP and it's gonna be
    > awhile.
    >
    > But in the long run, does anybody see anything that would keep
    > Blu-Ray recordable disks' cost per gig from becoming competitive
    > with the $.25 each DVD-R disks I get at Staples?


    Yes: Dozens upon dozens of cluttering rights-management codings,
    time-limitations, and infuriatingly inscrutable (and often Windows-only)
    exclusive-viewing software that paranoid but desperately Net-illiterate
    studios cripple their downloads with to prevent the usage of said DVD-R
    disks from Staples.

    > Oh, heck, I can break those!--I'm, like a l33t h@xxor, d00d!


    Good. You do that.
    I, meanwhile, will buy the commercial dual-layer release, with the menus
    and extras.

    Derek Janssen (call me lazy)
    Derek Janssen, May 14, 2008
    #7
  8. Ted

    Guest

    On May 13, 5:36 pm, Doug Jacobs <> wrote:
    > Ted <> wrote:
    > > "...Blu-ray is fighting for acceptance at the very moment that
    > > cash-strapped consumers are pulling back. Meanwhile, Apple,
    > > Netflix, and Amazon.com are launching downloading and other
    > > services that could make Blu-ray obsolete before it has a chance
    > > to get traction. 'We see Blu-ray's window of opportunity closing
    > > very quickly,' says Jagdish Rebello, a director and principal
    > > analyst of iSuppli, a research firm. 'The question is: Does Blu-
    > > ray really matter?'..."

    >
    > I really don't understand why folks keep thinking downloads are, in any
    > way, going to make blu-ray "obsolete".


    Or, for that matter, why anyone is bothering with marketing drivel at
    this stage in the game? Who commissioned this study, may I ask? It
    certainly wouldn't be Sony, or any other members of the BDA, since
    they're clearly pretty confident in their business model already. So,
    logically, it was probably a competitor of theirs in some way, shape,
    or form... so should we be surprised that iSuppli is telling the
    company that signs the checks what they want to hear?

    Granted, this is largely speculation, but this isn't 2005 anymore.
    BluRay is here, it's dropping in price, and people are buying it. The
    only matter for discussion is how quickly it's being adopted-- there's
    NO reason to think that any VOD solution is hindering it right now.

    Right now, I'm sure someone is waiting on a report to see if the
    public is ready to buy into this whole "internet" fad all the kids are
    taking about...

    --

    Aaron J. Bossig

    http://www.GodsLabRat.com
    , May 14, 2008
    #8
  9. Doug Jacobs wrote:

    > Tarkus <> wrote:
    >
    >>Only the geekiest of geeks would even know how to download and watch
    >>movies on their televisions, assuming the bandwidth is even available.
    >>And are they going to buy it every time they want to watch it?

    >
    > AppleTV, Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 all say "hi".


    AppleTV, meanwhile, adds "Why the heck can't we get any studios
    anymore?", PS3 says "It's coming, okay, be patient!!", and XBox went
    down with the Red Ring again.

    > Granted, none of them are spectacularly popular right now,


    (...HOO-BOY!! >_< )

    > the selection is slim, the prices are high (IMHO anyways)


    In most people's opinion, in fact--
    They started out *nominally* lower than purchasing the DVD at Wal-mart
    for unlimited plays ($9-14.99), and with standard DVD prices now
    dropping to clearance level, are equal at best.

    For those who want to "save money" by burning downloads on DVD-R.

    > and the video is highly of compressed. However, it's a start.


    A clunky, overpriced, severely limited, and technologically confusing
    start, but...

    > Netflix also has its own streaming service for movies, and there are
    > rumors that it may be forming a partnership with the 360 as well, meaning
    > you can use your netflix account to stream movies to your 360 and watch
    > them on your TV.


    Or use their DVD service, for the exact same price.

    Derek Janssen
    Derek Janssen, May 14, 2008
    #9
  10. Doug Jacobs wrote:
    > wrote:
    >
    >>Granted, this is largely speculation, but this isn't 2005 anymore.
    >>BluRay is here, it's dropping in price, and people are buying it. The
    >>only matter for discussion is how quickly it's being adopted-- there's
    >>NO reason to think that any VOD solution is hindering it right now.

    >
    >
    > Actually, my understanding was that blu-ray was doing just the opposite -
    > blu-ray may have won, but prices are remaining high


    They're *still* $39.99? Where?? 0_0''

    > and people aren't buying it.


    And sales records aren't being successively broken with every new
    hi-profile mainstream release...

    (Granted, with all the goofy/desperate releases, we haven't had the
    "killer-app" mainstream Matrix title yet outside of Pixar, but
    Paramount's still acting coy about Godfather and Indiana Jones by the
    end of the year.)

    > Of course, those who were assuming that blu-ray would skyrocket
    > just as DVD did are ignoring several factors, such as the fact that bly-ray
    > requires a HDTV to even have a chance of taking advantage of its enhanced
    > picture.


    And speculation that HDTV's, like DVD players in '00, will be next
    Christmas's "mandatory" shopping-splurge gift for Black Friday '08.

    Yes, that's what everyone said about BF'07, but that was back when
    HD-DVD was still around to spoil the game and be "the Hillary Clinton of
    home theater"...
    With network broadcast now 80% HDTV, It's All About Change.

    > Again, I think blu-ray will basically be regarded as a more successful
    > version of LaserDisk.


    With the exception that you can actually *find* Blu-ray disks in Target
    and Best Buy--
    Without having to search out some obscure storefront boutique in the
    college-town district, so you can order a unreleased Japanese title on
    import.

    > It won't overtake DVD because the cost of entry (a
    > large HDTV) is too high and frankly, doesn't deliver enough of a "wow!" to
    > encourage people to replace their perfectly fine - and now upscalable -
    > DVDs with blu-rays.


    Still don't own one yet, huh?

    Derek Janssen (eh, those whiny Have-not's again...)
    Derek Janssen, May 14, 2008
    #10
  11. Per Derek Janssen:
    >Yes: Dozens upon dozens of cluttering rights-management codings,
    >time-limitations, and infuriatingly inscrutable (and often Windows-only)
    >exclusive-viewing software that paranoid but desperately Net-illiterate
    >studios cripple their downloads with to prevent the usage of said DVD-R
    >disks from Staples.


    I was just thinking in terms of data backup to Blu-Ray instead of
    DVD.
    --
    PeteCresswell
    (PeteCresswell), May 15, 2008
    #11
  12. On Wed, 14 May 2008 16:15:37 -0500, Doug Jacobs <>
    wrote:

    >Each of them offers an easy to navigate online store where you can choose
    >and download music, TV shows and movies.



    At what SHIT resolution, and at what SHIT compression schema?

    Thanks, but I'll stay with my high end, studio produced,
    top-of-the-line media at high resolution, and with a VERY high end
    soundtrack. ABC makes a good HD stream right now, but there are
    artifacts, even with that.

    And yes... high definition DVD IS going to be around for a long time.
    That is regardless of what streaming media technologies come down the
    pike.

    Soon enough, memory technology will get so dense, that we will be buying
    the same digital masters as are on DVDs today, on a wafer or thin stick.
    The TV resolution we have now are going to be around for a while, so the
    current HD resolutions out on disc media is quite sufficient for
    consumers for years to come.

    I will see, in my lifetime, my entire collection in a box, on my shelf,
    the size of my old cassette tape caddy for my car. Little sticks with
    colored tabs. At that point, I will have bought most of my collection
    several times over.

    I sometimes wish my DVD titles were stock certificates. They sure
    don't grow in value like them. :-(
    StickThatInYourPipeAndSmokeIt, May 15, 2008
    #12
  13. Doug Jacobs wrote:
    > Derek Janssen <> wrote:
    >
    >>>Actually, my understanding was that blu-ray was doing just the opposite -
    >>>blu-ray may have won, but prices are remaining high

    >>
    >>They're *still* $39.99? Where?? 0_0''

    >
    > Ok, maybe not $39.99, but I still see them for $34.99 at some places, or
    > $26-28 when the DVD is $15 in the same store.


    A disk that costs $26-29 dollars in a retail market? That's NEVER been
    heard of before!
    (In our next post, we define "lateral move"...) ;)

    >>>Of course, those who were assuming that blu-ray would skyrocket
    >>>just as DVD did are ignoring several factors, such as the fact that bly-ray
    >>>requires a HDTV to even have a chance of taking advantage of its enhanced
    >>>picture.

    >>
    >>And speculation that HDTV's, like DVD players in '00, will be next
    >>Christmas's "mandatory" shopping-splurge gift for Black Friday '08.

    >
    > I'd agree with that.
    >
    > But even so, when you're buying a TV for, say, $600, are you really going
    > to be keen on buying a Blu-Ray player for another $400?
    >
    > Maybe by next year, we'll see $249 blu-ray players that don't say
    > "Playstation 3" on their casing. Then maybe blu-ray will start to really
    > take off.


    Maybe they'll even say "Samsung" on them:
    http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/05/13/samsungs-bd-p1500-blu-ray-player-in-stock-in-the-wild

    >>>Again, I think blu-ray will basically be regarded as a more successful
    >>>version of LaserDisk.

    >>
    >>With the exception that you can actually *find* Blu-ray disks in Target
    >>and Best Buy--
    >>Without having to search out some obscure storefront boutique in the
    >>college-town district, so you can order a unreleased Japanese title on
    >>import.

    >
    > That's what I was implying by saying "more successful". Perhaps "more
    > mainstream" would have been more accurate?


    ....Is there a difference? ;)

    >>>It won't overtake DVD because the cost of entry (a
    >>>large HDTV) is too high and frankly, doesn't deliver enough of a "wow!" to
    >>>encourage people to replace their perfectly fine - and now upscalable -
    >>>DVDs with blu-rays.

    >>
    >>Still don't own one yet, huh?

    >
    > Well...no I wouldn't...except that my brother-in-law gave us a PS3 for
    > Christmas last year.
    >
    > We've since used it to watch a handful of BD movies, but to be honest, I
    > just don't get the same "Wow!" factor from BD compared to the first time I
    > tuned into a HD channel with my HDTV. In fact, I think I would have a
    > fairly difficult time reliably picking BD in a side-by-side viewing test.
    >
    > Maybe it's just been the movies we've watched. Simpsons Movie on BD is
    > just overkill, so I'm not worried about that. But we've watched Oceans 13
    > and the 3rd Pirates movie and neither really looked any better than what
    > I'd expect out of DVD on a good upscaling player. I've heard Cars on BD
    > is supposed to be jaw-dropping, so I'll have to get it from Netflix and
    > give it a shot.


    Why don't you, at that? It helps to have ALL of one's facts at command
    before opening one's mouth. ^_^

    Derek Janssen (picking off the last few '07 wartime stragglers)
    Derek Janssen, May 16, 2008
    #13
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