Android Surpasses Iphone

Discussion in 'NZ Computing' started by Lawrence D'Oliveiro, May 10, 2010.

  1. I’d be interested to see worldwide figures, but they probably wouldn’t be
    too different, since the iPhone was really only a big seller in the US
    anyway. Interesting that Apple never managed to overtake RIM before being
    pushed back to third place.

    <http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2010/05/android-overtakes-apple-in-us-smartphone-market.ars>
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, May 10, 2010
    #1
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  2. Lawrence D'Oliveiro

    David Empson Guest

    Lawrence D'Oliveiro <_zealand> wrote:

    > I'd be interested to see worldwide figures, but they probably wouldn't be
    > too different, since the iPhone was really only a big seller in the US
    > anyway.


    International figures are quite different: Symbian is the worldwide
    leader in smartphone OSes by a big margin, but isn't anywhere near as
    popular in the US. iPhone is more popular outside the US than it is
    inside the US, mainly due to it being limited to AT&T in the US.

    To get a better US market share Apple would have to release a CDMA model
    of the iPhone for Verizon and Sprint customers. (T-Mobile is a small
    player and their GSM/UMTS network operates on an uncommon frequency for
    3G.)

    This site shows worldwide smartphone sales by OS for the last three
    years:

    <http://gigaom.com/2010/03/18/the-mobile-os-market/>

    > Interesting that Apple never managed to overtake RIM before being
    > pushed back to third place.
    >
    > <http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2010/05/android-overtakes-apple-in-us-
    > smartphone-market.ars>


    If OS usage is your main point of interest then this article is somewhat
    misleading even for the US, because it only allows for smartphones,
    hence only the iPhone is being counted in the iPhone OS figures.

    The iPod Touch runs the same OS as the iPhone. Apple doesn't regularly
    publish iPod Touch sales (they are buried inside total iPod sales), but
    they occasionally announce total iPhone OS device sales, and the last
    such occasion was at the iPhone OS 4.0 announcement in early April.

    Up to the end of March 2010, Apple had sold roughly 6 iPod Touches for
    every 10 iPhones: 85.5 million iPhone OS devices in total, of which
    about 50 million were iPhones.

    iPhone sales are published Apple's quarterly results. iPad sales will be
    published in the same way.

    --
    David Empson
     
    David Empson, May 11, 2010
    #2
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  3. In message <1jibsyl.fhuqokavf2e5N%>, David Empson wrote:

    > If OS usage is your main point of interest then this article is somewhat
    > misleading even for the US, because it only allows for smartphones,
    > hence only the iPhone is being counted in the iPhone OS figures.
    >
    > The iPod Touch runs the same OS as the iPhone.


    Well, if you want to include other devices running a similar OS, then I get
    to include all the growing number of Android non-phone devices as well.

    And speaking of including other devices, it looks
    <http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/ipad-is-so-far-having-a-minimal-effect-on-mac-sales-ipod-sales-are-down/34546>
    like sales of the new iPad are cannibalizing that of the iPod, so they’re
    not really adding to the total on Apple’s side at all.
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, May 18, 2010
    #3
  4. Lawrence D'Oliveiro

    audrey299

    Joined:
    May 18, 2010
    Messages:
    3
    Definitely android will surpass iphone.last quarter, Android (Android) handsets accounted for 28% of smartphone sales, out-numbering iPhone OS and its 21% share..
     
    audrey299, May 18, 2010
    #4
  5. Lawrence D'Oliveiro

    David Empson Guest

    Lawrence D'Oliveiro <_zealand> wrote:

    > In message <1jibsyl.fhuqokavf2e5N%>, David Empson wrote:
    >
    > > If OS usage is your main point of interest then this article is somewhat
    > > misleading even for the US, because it only allows for smartphones,
    > > hence only the iPhone is being counted in the iPhone OS figures.
    > >
    > > The iPod Touch runs the same OS as the iPhone.

    >
    > Well, if you want to include other devices running a similar OS, then I get
    > to include all the growing number of Android non-phone devices as well.


    Fair enough. (I didn't know there were any when I wrote that a week
    ago.)

    > And speaking of including other devices, it looks
    > <http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/ipad-is-so-far-having-a-minimal-effect-on-
    > mac-sales-ipod-sales-are-down/34546>
    > like sales of the new iPad are cannibalizing that of the iPod, so they're
    > not really adding to the total on Apple's side at all.


    There is some cannibalization but your conclusion is not valid. There
    are far more iPads being sold than lost iPod sales.

    Apple sold 1 million iPads during April, in the US alone (and most of
    that was with only the WiFi model available, and limited supplies).

    The report says that retail iPod sales in the US are down 17% for April
    compared to last year. Assume that figure also applies to online sales
    in the US.

    On a worldwide basis, Apple sold 10.2 million iPods in the quarter to
    June 2009. We don't know the proportion of US vs interational sales, but
    assume for arguments sake that half were sold in the US, and that sales
    were evenly distributed between the three months.

    17% of half of a third of a 10.2 million is about 0.3 million fewer
    iPods sold in the US for April.

    iPad unit sales are in the order of three times the lost iPod unit
    sales.

    As far as iPhone OS usage is concerned, this also doesn't allow for the
    likelihood that some of the lost sales will be in iPod models which
    don't run the iPhone OS, so the net increase in iPhone OS devices is
    even higher.

    --
    David Empson
     
    David Empson, May 18, 2010
    #5
  6. In message <1jipbme.htext01bnyq06N%>, David Empson wrote:

    > On a worldwide basis, Apple sold 10.2 million iPods in the quarter to
    > June 2009.


    So that’s about 40 million a year. Google is claiming that Android device
    shipments are already exceeding 20 million a year, and growing fast
    <http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/1648544/google-android-army-marches-upward>.

    (That’s assuming I’ve correctly interpreted the “65,000 devices ... every
    day†as daily shipments, as opposed to total number of different SKUs.)
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, May 18, 2010
    #6
  7. Lawrence D'Oliveiro

    David Empson Guest

    Lawrence D'Oliveiro <_zealand> wrote:

    > In message <1jipbme.htext01bnyq06N%>, David Empson wrote:
    >
    > > On a worldwide basis, Apple sold 10.2 million iPods in the quarter to
    > > June 2009.

    >
    > So that's about 40 million a year.


    iPod sales in the December quarter are roughly twice that of other
    quarters. Total iPod sales for the 2009 calendar year were 52.4 million.
    (That's all iPod models, not just the iPod Touch.) iPod sales peaked at
    about 55 million in 2008.

    Total iPhone sales for 2009 were 25 million, and are accelerating
    (quarter ending March 2010 had more than twice the sales of the same
    quarter in 2009).

    Estimated iPod Touch sales for 2009 were in the order of 20 million (out
    of the 52 million iPods), based on two reported "total iPhone OS
    devices" figures roughly a year apart, so approximately 45 million
    iPhone OS devices were sold in 2009.

    > Google is claiming that Android device shipments are already exceeding 20
    > million a year, and growing fast
    > <http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/1648544/google-android-army-marc
    > hes-upward>.


    Sure, if you give away half your smartphones, you will gain market
    share. Google will like that, I expect the handset makers are fine with
    it (subsidised by the carriers), the carriers aren't losing much money
    (cost recovered over the period of two term contracts), and the end user
    gets to save money.

    > (That's assuming I've correctly interpreted the "65,000 devices ... every
    > day" as daily shipments, as opposed to total number of different SKUs.)


    Even Nokia can't make that many new model variants per day. :)

    --
    David Empson
     
    David Empson, May 18, 2010
    #7
  8. Lawrence D'Oliveiro

    Another Me Guest

    On 18/05/10 10:14 PM, David Empson wrote:

    > Sure, if you give away half your smartphones, you will gain market
    > share. Google will like that, I expect the handset makers are fine with
    > it (subsidised by the carriers), the carriers aren't losing much money
    > (cost recovered over the period of two term contracts), and the end user
    > gets to save money.


    I don't really want to interrupt you discussion, but those phones are't
    "given" away, they are paid for, just like Vodafone "giving" away the
    iPhone, or the number of other fully subsidised phones these providers,
    provide.



    > Even Nokia can't make that many new model variants per day. :)
    >


    Well Nokia does ship (actually sell) over 1,000,000 devices a day, that
    65,000 devices for Android aren't "new" designs, they are just shipments.
     
    Another Me, May 18, 2010
    #8
  9. Lawrence D'Oliveiro

    David Empson Guest

    Another Me <> wrote:

    > On 18/05/10 10:14 PM, David Empson wrote:
    >
    > > Sure, if you give away half your smartphones, you will gain market
    > > share. Google will like that, I expect the handset makers are fine with
    > > it (subsidised by the carriers), the carriers aren't losing much money
    > > (cost recovered over the period of two term contracts), and the end user
    > > gets to save money.

    >
    > I don't really want to interrupt you discussion, but those phones are't
    > "given" away, they are paid for, just like Vodafone "giving" away the
    > iPhone, or the number of other fully subsidised phones these providers,
    > provide.


    Yes, I know that, but I get the impression that many people (especially
    in the US) don't pay much attention to the overall cost and are heavily
    influenced by the up-front cost of the phone, so if the phone is fully
    subsidised it will sell better than if it is only partly subsidised
    (even if the total cost over the contract term was the same).

    > > Even Nokia can't make that many new model variants per day. :)
    > >

    >
    > Well Nokia does ship (actually sell) over 1,000,000 devices a day, that
    > 65,000 devices for Android aren't "new" designs, they are just shipments.


    I was commenting on Lawrence's parenthentical point that the 65000 was
    not clearly described in the article and could have been interpreted as
    either devices shipped or distinct products (SKUs).
    --
    David Empson
     
    David Empson, May 18, 2010
    #9
  10. In message <hsa1hv$d9c$>, Lawrence D'Oliveiro wrote:

    > I’d be interested to see worldwide figures, but they probably wouldn’t be
    > too different, since the iPhone was really only a big seller in the US
    > anyway.


    Well, here are some worldwide figures for the first quarter of this year
    <http://www.zdnet.com/blog/cell-phones/google-android-smacks-down-windows-mobile-in-latest-gartner-data/3829>

    Android on its own is fast catching up to the iPhone. But put “Android†and
    “Linux†together, and the gap is even narrower.
     
    Lawrence D'Oliveiro, May 20, 2010
    #10
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