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Which will die first, the DSLR or the dedicated consumer video camera?

 
 
RichA
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      10-06-2011
Hard choice. The last we'll likely see of either will be in the pro
ranks, my guess is video will die second.
 
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charles
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      10-07-2011
On Thu, 6 Oct 2011 16:38:04 -0700 (PDT), RichA <(E-Mail Removed)>
wrote:

>Hard choice. The last we'll likely see of either will be in the pro
>ranks, my guess is video will die second.



Me, probably.
 
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Me
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      10-07-2011
On 7/10/2011 12:38 p.m., RichA wrote:
> Hard choice. The last we'll likely see of either will be in the pro
> ranks, my guess is video will die second.
>

I think the "pro-ranked consumer video camera" was never born, as I've
never seen one, so I'm surprised that you seem to think it can die.
As for your predictions, if the world market consisted only of
obsessive, repetitive, you (and you only), you'd be worth listening to
on such matters. But it doesn't, so you aren't.
 
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RichA
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      10-07-2011
On Oct 6, 9:03*pm, Me <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
> On 7/10/2011 12:38 p.m., RichA wrote:> Hard choice. *The last we'll likely see of either will be in the pro
> > ranks, my guess is video will die second.

>
> *>
> I think the "pro-ranked consumer video camera" was never born, as I've
> never seen one, so I'm surprised that you seem to think it can die.
> As for your predictions, if the world market consisted only of
> obsessive, repetitive, you (and you only), you'd be worth listening to
> on such matters. *But it doesn't, so you aren't.


Just because Nikon decided to produce an inferior mirrorless (compared
to the others) in order to protect a dwindling DSLR market doesn't
mean it won't keep dwindling.
 
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Bruce
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      10-07-2011
RichA <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>On Oct 6, 9:03*pm, Me <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>> On 7/10/2011 12:38 p.m., RichA wrote:> Hard choice. *The last we'll likely see of either will be in the pro
>> > ranks, my guess is video will die second.

>> I think the "pro-ranked consumer video camera" was never born, as I've
>> never seen one, so I'm surprised that you seem to think it can die.
>> As for your predictions, if the world market consisted only of
>> obsessive, repetitive, you (and you only), you'd be worth listening to
>> on such matters. *But it doesn't, so you aren't.

>
>Just because Nikon decided to produce an inferior mirrorless (compared
>to the others) in order to protect a dwindling DSLR market doesn't
>mean it won't keep dwindling.



You're right.

Nikon's choice of sensor size was clearly to avoid competing with its
own entry-level DSLRs, and to this extent the Nikon 1 System has been
successful. But DSLR sales will continue to decline.

In the days of 35mm film, there were quite a few reasonably priced
35mm p+s cameras which delivered image quality that was close to that
obtainable with 35mm SLRs. There was high demand for them, and a
lower demand for APS p+s cameras that delivered inferior results.

Fast forward to today and there is no longer a common film/sensor
format in the way there was with 35mm film. P+s digicams use small
sensors so most produce results that are significantly inferior to
those obtainable with DSLRs that use larger sensors.

What mirrorless CSCs are doing is providing a similar choice to the
days of 35mm film. CSCs give near-DSLR image quality from a smaller
body but one which uses a DSLR-sized sensor. So people who would have
bought high quality 35mm p+s cameras can now choose a CSC that does
much the same job.

Personally I think there is still a gaping hole in the market. I am
convinced that there is latent demand for p+s digicams that use larger
sensors but with non-interchangeable lenses. I believe that there are
a lot of people who would welcome a selection of cameras that offered
near-DSLR image quality but without the hassle, complication and
expense of interchangeable lenses.

The Fujifilm X100 and X10 and Ricoh GR Digital hint at this market,
but the X100 in particular is too expensive to be other than a niche
camera, and the X10 and GR Digital's sensors are too small. There is
also Sigma's DP series that sells in penny numbers. But I imagine
that cameras with Micro Four Thirds or APS-C sensors and very good
quality zoom lenses in the (equivalent) 28-80mm or 35-105mm range
would sell very well indeed.

At this time, that market is largely unsatisfied. Instead, people
have to choose between expensive system cameras, either CSCs or DSLRs,
with the unnecessary complication of interchangeable lenses, or p+s
and superzooms with tiny sensors. There is money to be made in the
yawning gap between these two extremes.

 
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PeterN
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      10-07-2011
On 10/7/2011 8:57 AM, RichA wrote:
> On Oct 6, 9:03 pm, Me<(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>> On 7/10/2011 12:38 p.m., RichA wrote:> Hard choice. The last we'll likely see of either will be in the pro
>>> ranks, my guess is video will die second.

>>
>> >

>> I think the "pro-ranked consumer video camera" was never born, as I've
>> never seen one, so I'm surprised that you seem to think it can die.
>> As for your predictions, if the world market consisted only of
>> obsessive, repetitive, you (and you only), you'd be worth listening to
>> on such matters. But it doesn't, so you aren't.

>
> Just because Nikon decided to produce an inferior mirrorless (compared
> to the others) in order to protect a dwindling DSLR market doesn't
> mean it won't keep dwindling.


Did I miss your posting your analytic qualifications?

--
Peter
 
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Me
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      10-07-2011
On 8/10/2011 1:57 a.m., RichA wrote:
> On Oct 6, 9:03 pm, Me<(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>> On 7/10/2011 12:38 p.m., RichA wrote:> Hard choice. The last we'll likely see of either will be in the pro
>>> ranks, my guess is video will die second.

>>
>> >

>> I think the "pro-ranked consumer video camera" was never born, as I've
>> never seen one, so I'm surprised that you seem to think it can die.
>> As for your predictions, if the world market consisted only of
>> obsessive, repetitive, you (and you only), you'd be worth listening to
>> on such matters. But it doesn't, so you aren't.

>
> Just because Nikon decided to produce an inferior mirrorless (compared
> to the others) in order to protect a dwindling DSLR market doesn't
> mean it won't keep dwindling.

Just because Nikon produced a small format interchangeable lens system
which you think is inferior means nothing at all.
They could produce a Dx or Fx format mirrorless camera tomorrow.
 
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Robert Coe
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      10-08-2011
On Fri, 07 Oct 2011 14:03:09 +1300, Me <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
: On 7/10/2011 12:38 p.m., RichA wrote:
: > Hard choice. The last we'll likely see of either will be in the pro
: > ranks, my guess is video will die second.
: >
: I think the "pro-ranked consumer video camera" was never born, as I've
: never seen one, so I'm surprised that you seem to think it can die.
: As for your predictions, if the world market consisted only of
: obsessive, repetitive, you (and you only), you'd be worth listening to
: on such matters. But it doesn't, so you aren't.

I was covering an event the other day and got into a conversation with a
professional videographer. When he saw my Canon equipment, he mentioned that
he has a 5D on his wish list - for its video capability! When I asked him why
he, of all people, wouldn't chose a dedicated video camera, he said it was
because one good enough to satisfy him would cost $8000.

Bob
 
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DanP
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      10-08-2011
Why, are they at war with each other?

DanP
 
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Robert Coe
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      10-10-2011
On Sat, 8 Oct 2011 02:28:20 -0700 (PDT), DanP <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
: Why, are they at war with each other?

They're on Rich's Enemies List.

Bob
 
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