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Android Surpasses Iphone

 
 
Lawrence D'Oliveiro
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      05-10-2010
I’d be interested to see worldwide figures, but they probably wouldn’t be
too different, since the iPhone was really only a big seller in the US
anyway. Interesting that Apple never managed to overtake RIM before being
pushed back to third place.

<http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2010/05/android-overtakes-apple-in-us-smartphone-market.ars>
 
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David Empson
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      05-11-2010
Lawrence D'Oliveiro <(E-Mail Removed)_zealand> wrote:

> I'd be interested to see worldwide figures, but they probably wouldn't be
> too different, since the iPhone was really only a big seller in the US
> anyway.


International figures are quite different: Symbian is the worldwide
leader in smartphone OSes by a big margin, but isn't anywhere near as
popular in the US. iPhone is more popular outside the US than it is
inside the US, mainly due to it being limited to AT&T in the US.

To get a better US market share Apple would have to release a CDMA model
of the iPhone for Verizon and Sprint customers. (T-Mobile is a small
player and their GSM/UMTS network operates on an uncommon frequency for
3G.)

This site shows worldwide smartphone sales by OS for the last three
years:

<http://gigaom.com/2010/03/18/the-mobile-os-market/>

> Interesting that Apple never managed to overtake RIM before being
> pushed back to third place.
>
> <http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/20...s-apple-in-us-
> smartphone-market.ars>


If OS usage is your main point of interest then this article is somewhat
misleading even for the US, because it only allows for smartphones,
hence only the iPhone is being counted in the iPhone OS figures.

The iPod Touch runs the same OS as the iPhone. Apple doesn't regularly
publish iPod Touch sales (they are buried inside total iPod sales), but
they occasionally announce total iPhone OS device sales, and the last
such occasion was at the iPhone OS 4.0 announcement in early April.

Up to the end of March 2010, Apple had sold roughly 6 iPod Touches for
every 10 iPhones: 85.5 million iPhone OS devices in total, of which
about 50 million were iPhones.

iPhone sales are published Apple's quarterly results. iPad sales will be
published in the same way.

--
David Empson
http://www.velocityreviews.com/forums/(E-Mail Removed)
 
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Lawrence D'Oliveiro
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      05-18-2010
In message <1jibsyl.fhuqokavf2e5N%(E-Mail Removed)>, David Empson wrote:

> If OS usage is your main point of interest then this article is somewhat
> misleading even for the US, because it only allows for smartphones,
> hence only the iPhone is being counted in the iPhone OS figures.
>
> The iPod Touch runs the same OS as the iPhone.


Well, if you want to include other devices running a similar OS, then I get
to include all the growing number of Android non-phone devices as well.

And speaking of including other devices, it looks
<http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/ipad-is-so-far-having-a-minimal-effect-on-mac-sales-ipod-sales-are-down/34546>
like sales of the new iPad are cannibalizing that of the iPod, so they’re
not really adding to the total on Apple’s side at all.
 
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audrey299 audrey299 is offline
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Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 3
 
      05-18-2010
Definitely android will surpass iphone.last quarter, Android (Android) handsets accounted for 28% of smartphone sales, out-numbering iPhone OS and its 21% share..
 
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David Empson
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      05-18-2010
Lawrence D'Oliveiro <(E-Mail Removed)_zealand> wrote:

> In message <1jibsyl.fhuqokavf2e5N%(E-Mail Removed)>, David Empson wrote:
>
> > If OS usage is your main point of interest then this article is somewhat
> > misleading even for the US, because it only allows for smartphones,
> > hence only the iPhone is being counted in the iPhone OS figures.
> >
> > The iPod Touch runs the same OS as the iPhone.

>
> Well, if you want to include other devices running a similar OS, then I get
> to include all the growing number of Android non-phone devices as well.


Fair enough. (I didn't know there were any when I wrote that a week
ago.)

> And speaking of including other devices, it looks
> <http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/ipad-i...mal-effect-on-
> mac-sales-ipod-sales-are-down/34546>
> like sales of the new iPad are cannibalizing that of the iPod, so they're
> not really adding to the total on Apple's side at all.


There is some cannibalization but your conclusion is not valid. There
are far more iPads being sold than lost iPod sales.

Apple sold 1 million iPads during April, in the US alone (and most of
that was with only the WiFi model available, and limited supplies).

The report says that retail iPod sales in the US are down 17% for April
compared to last year. Assume that figure also applies to online sales
in the US.

On a worldwide basis, Apple sold 10.2 million iPods in the quarter to
June 2009. We don't know the proportion of US vs interational sales, but
assume for arguments sake that half were sold in the US, and that sales
were evenly distributed between the three months.

17% of half of a third of a 10.2 million is about 0.3 million fewer
iPods sold in the US for April.

iPad unit sales are in the order of three times the lost iPod unit
sales.

As far as iPhone OS usage is concerned, this also doesn't allow for the
likelihood that some of the lost sales will be in iPod models which
don't run the iPhone OS, so the net increase in iPhone OS devices is
even higher.

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Lawrence D'Oliveiro
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      05-18-2010
In message <1jipbme.htext01bnyq06N%(E-Mail Removed)>, David Empson wrote:

> On a worldwide basis, Apple sold 10.2 million iPods in the quarter to
> June 2009.


So that’s about 40 million a year. Google is claiming that Android device
shipments are already exceeding 20 million a year, and growing fast
<http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/1648544/google-android-army-marches-upward>.

(That’s assuming I’ve correctly interpreted the “65,000 devices ... every
day” as daily shipments, as opposed to total number of different SKUs.)
 
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David Empson
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      05-18-2010
Lawrence D'Oliveiro <(E-Mail Removed)_zealand> wrote:

> In message <1jipbme.htext01bnyq06N%(E-Mail Removed)>, David Empson wrote:
>
> > On a worldwide basis, Apple sold 10.2 million iPods in the quarter to
> > June 2009.

>
> So that's about 40 million a year.


iPod sales in the December quarter are roughly twice that of other
quarters. Total iPod sales for the 2009 calendar year were 52.4 million.
(That's all iPod models, not just the iPod Touch.) iPod sales peaked at
about 55 million in 2008.

Total iPhone sales for 2009 were 25 million, and are accelerating
(quarter ending March 2010 had more than twice the sales of the same
quarter in 2009).

Estimated iPod Touch sales for 2009 were in the order of 20 million (out
of the 52 million iPods), based on two reported "total iPhone OS
devices" figures roughly a year apart, so approximately 45 million
iPhone OS devices were sold in 2009.

> Google is claiming that Android device shipments are already exceeding 20
> million a year, and growing fast
> <http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/...roid-army-marc
> hes-upward>.


Sure, if you give away half your smartphones, you will gain market
share. Google will like that, I expect the handset makers are fine with
it (subsidised by the carriers), the carriers aren't losing much money
(cost recovered over the period of two term contracts), and the end user
gets to save money.

> (That's assuming I've correctly interpreted the "65,000 devices ... every
> day" as daily shipments, as opposed to total number of different SKUs.)


Even Nokia can't make that many new model variants per day.

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Another Me
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      05-18-2010
On 18/05/10 10:14 PM, David Empson wrote:

> Sure, if you give away half your smartphones, you will gain market
> share. Google will like that, I expect the handset makers are fine with
> it (subsidised by the carriers), the carriers aren't losing much money
> (cost recovered over the period of two term contracts), and the end user
> gets to save money.


I don't really want to interrupt you discussion, but those phones are't
"given" away, they are paid for, just like Vodafone "giving" away the
iPhone, or the number of other fully subsidised phones these providers,
provide.



> Even Nokia can't make that many new model variants per day.
>


Well Nokia does ship (actually sell) over 1,000,000 devices a day, that
65,000 devices for Android aren't "new" designs, they are just shipments.
 
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David Empson
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      05-18-2010
Another Me <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:

> On 18/05/10 10:14 PM, David Empson wrote:
>
> > Sure, if you give away half your smartphones, you will gain market
> > share. Google will like that, I expect the handset makers are fine with
> > it (subsidised by the carriers), the carriers aren't losing much money
> > (cost recovered over the period of two term contracts), and the end user
> > gets to save money.

>
> I don't really want to interrupt you discussion, but those phones are't
> "given" away, they are paid for, just like Vodafone "giving" away the
> iPhone, or the number of other fully subsidised phones these providers,
> provide.


Yes, I know that, but I get the impression that many people (especially
in the US) don't pay much attention to the overall cost and are heavily
influenced by the up-front cost of the phone, so if the phone is fully
subsidised it will sell better than if it is only partly subsidised
(even if the total cost over the contract term was the same).

> > Even Nokia can't make that many new model variants per day.
> >

>
> Well Nokia does ship (actually sell) over 1,000,000 devices a day, that
> 65,000 devices for Android aren't "new" designs, they are just shipments.


I was commenting on Lawrence's parenthentical point that the 65000 was
not clearly described in the article and could have been interpreted as
either devices shipped or distinct products (SKUs).
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Lawrence D'Oliveiro
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      05-20-2010
In message <hsa1hv$d9c$(E-Mail Removed)>, Lawrence D'Oliveiro wrote:

> I’d be interested to see worldwide figures, but they probably wouldn’t be
> too different, since the iPhone was really only a big seller in the US
> anyway.


Well, here are some worldwide figures for the first quarter of this year
<http://www.zdnet.com/blog/cell-phones/google-android-smacks-down-windows-mobile-in-latest-gartner-data/3829>

Android on its own is fast catching up to the iPhone. But put “Android” and
“Linux” together, and the gap is even narrower.
 
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