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Blu-ray Isn't Getting Much Traction

 
 
Ted
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      05-12-2008
"...Blu-ray is fighting for acceptance at the very moment that
cash-strapped consumers are pulling back. Meanwhile, Apple,
Netflix, and Amazon.com are launching downloading and other
services that could make Blu-ray obsolete before it has a chance
to get traction. 'We see Blu-ray's window of opportunity closing
very quickly,' says Jagdish Rebello, a director and principal
analyst of iSuppli, a research firm. 'The question is: Does Blu-
ray really matter?'..."

Business Week article: http://xrl.us/Bluray

 
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Derek Janssen
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      05-12-2008
Ted wrote:

> "...Blu-ray is fighting for acceptance at the very moment that
> cash-strapped consumers are pulling back. Meanwhile, Apple,
> Netflix, and Amazon.com are launching downloading and other
> services that could make Blu-ray obsolete before it has a chance
> to get traction.


I take it this article was written BEFORE Apple's download quarterlies
came in under expectations, and Amazon's Unbox went through
reorganization of their business policies?

(Which are both business euphemisms for "flopped".)

Derek Janssen
http://www.velocityreviews.com/forums/(E-Mail Removed)
 
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godslabrat@gmail.com
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      05-12-2008
On May 12, 5:51 pm, Derek Janssen <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
> > "...Blu-ray is fighting for acceptance at the very moment that
> > cash-strapped consumers are pulling back. Meanwhile, Apple,
> > Netflix, and Amazon.com are launching downloading and other
> > services that could make Blu-ray obsolete before it has a chance
> > to get traction.

>
> I take it this article was written BEFORE Apple's download quarterlies
> came in under expectations, and Amazon's Unbox went through
> reorganization of their business policies?
>
> (Which are both business euphemisms for "flopped".)


Dude, but an ANALYST said it! That means it's got to be true!

--

Aaron J. Bossig

http://www.GodsLabRat.com
 
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Derek Janssen
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      05-13-2008
Doug Jacobs wrote:

> Ted <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>
>>"...Blu-ray is fighting for acceptance at the very moment that
>>cash-strapped consumers are pulling back. Meanwhile, Apple,
>>Netflix, and Amazon.com are launching downloading and other
>>services that could make Blu-ray obsolete before it has a chance
>>to get traction. 'We see Blu-ray's window of opportunity closing
>>very quickly,' says Jagdish Rebello, a director and principal
>>analyst of iSuppli, a research firm. 'The question is: Does Blu-
>>ray really matter?'..."
>>
>>Business Week article: http://xrl.us/Bluray

>
> I really don't understand why folks keep thinking downloads are, in any
> way, going to make blu-ray "obsolete".
>
> If anything, downloads will make disc-rental-via-USPS obsolete.


But not Blu-ray-via-USPS obsolete--

(Unless, as is usually countered at this point in the argument, Santa
Claus gets up one morning in his workshop, invents a spiffy new Faster
Foolproof Hi-Capacity Internet out of thin air, and delivers it to every
single person's home in the entire country sometime before the end of '08.)

> Blu-ray, meanwhile, seems on track to become essentially this generation's
> LaserDisk. That is, a format that is of interest to serious movie
> collectors and home theater-philes, but really won't catch on with the
> mass market.


Again, even when LD was around, when was the last time YOU saw "Now
available on Video and Laserdisk!" in TV ads?

> Blu-ray won't be a failure, but I really don't think it'll replace DVD and
> become the dominant format. For that to happen, the vast majority of the
> mass market must switch over to HDTV, and that's going to take at least
> another decade.


Unless it turns out to be one *short* decade...

Derek Janssen (like, one of those three-year-long decades)
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(PeteCresswell)
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      05-14-2008
Per Doug Jacobs:
>If anything, downloads will make disc-rental-via-USPS obsolete.


Understood that skimming the market is SOP and it's gonna be
awhile.

But in the long run, does anybody see anything that would keep
Blu-Ray recordable disks' cost per gig from becoming competitive
with the $.25 each DVD-R disks I get at Staples?
--
PeteCresswell
 
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Derek Janssen
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      05-14-2008
Tarkus wrote:
>
>> (Unless, as is usually countered at this point in the argument, Santa
>> Claus gets up one morning in his workshop, invents a spiffy new Faster
>> Foolproof Hi-Capacity Internet out of thin air, and delivers it to
>> every single person's home in the entire country sometime before the
>> end of '08.)

>
> And Santa is going to have to remove bandwidth caps while he's at it.
> Oh, and he has a whole lot of educating to do.


Hope he got my letter about "Taking studio-DRM 24-hr./48-hr. viewer
limitations off the copies", since I don't usually watch DVD's in one
sitting.

> These people who think downloads are taking over anytime soon are
> delusional.


Or else:
A) Studio publicists, still dreaming of an industry that will someday be
solely driven by pay-per-view (the active words being "Pay" and "Per"),
like it used to be in those long ago VHS-rental glory days, back before
everyone learned how to cultivate their own purchase shelf,

B) Microsoft-subsidiary publicists, still hoping for etc., etc., with
their *own* coding that didn't quite work out for HD-DVD,

C) Supremely gullible media analysts, hoping to turn their basic
tech-illiterate "What if the next new thing happens AGAIN all of a
sudden, like it did the last two times? 0_0'' " insecurities into a
*good* thing, by kissing up to every new announced technology like it's
their greatest friend,

or
D) Old anti-Blu grudges, still wrapping themselves up in their tattered
old Confederate "It's just a gamers' fad..." flag, and reminding
themselves that they were probably *right* not to trust that
rootkit-mongering Evil Sony all along.

> Only the geekiest of geeks would even know how to download and watch
> movies on their televisions, assuming the bandwidth is even available.
> And are they going to buy it every time they want to watch it.
> PPV has been around for a long, long time, and virtually everyone is
> capable of using it, and yet, stores remain stocked with DVDs.


And, if twenty years of cable/satellite is any indication, ten years of
the DVD/Blu industry is not going to be singlehandedly put out of
business by StarzHD On Demand.

Derek Janssen (and they're one of the *good* channels)
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Derek Janssen
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      05-14-2008
(PeteCresswell) wrote:
> Per Doug Jacobs:
>
>>If anything, downloads will make disc-rental-via-USPS obsolete.

>
>
> Understood that skimming the market is SOP and it's gonna be
> awhile.
>
> But in the long run, does anybody see anything that would keep
> Blu-Ray recordable disks' cost per gig from becoming competitive
> with the $.25 each DVD-R disks I get at Staples?


Yes: Dozens upon dozens of cluttering rights-management codings,
time-limitations, and infuriatingly inscrutable (and often Windows-only)
exclusive-viewing software that paranoid but desperately Net-illiterate
studios cripple their downloads with to prevent the usage of said DVD-R
disks from Staples.

> Oh, heck, I can break those!--I'm, like a l33t h@xxor, d00d!


Good. You do that.
I, meanwhile, will buy the commercial dual-layer release, with the menus
and extras.

Derek Janssen (call me lazy)
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godslabrat@gmail.com
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      05-14-2008
On May 13, 5:36 pm, Doug Jacobs <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
> Ted <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
> > "...Blu-ray is fighting for acceptance at the very moment that
> > cash-strapped consumers are pulling back. Meanwhile, Apple,
> > Netflix, and Amazon.com are launching downloading and other
> > services that could make Blu-ray obsolete before it has a chance
> > to get traction. 'We see Blu-ray's window of opportunity closing
> > very quickly,' says Jagdish Rebello, a director and principal
> > analyst of iSuppli, a research firm. 'The question is: Does Blu-
> > ray really matter?'..."

>
> I really don't understand why folks keep thinking downloads are, in any
> way, going to make blu-ray "obsolete".


Or, for that matter, why anyone is bothering with marketing drivel at
this stage in the game? Who commissioned this study, may I ask? It
certainly wouldn't be Sony, or any other members of the BDA, since
they're clearly pretty confident in their business model already. So,
logically, it was probably a competitor of theirs in some way, shape,
or form... so should we be surprised that iSuppli is telling the
company that signs the checks what they want to hear?

Granted, this is largely speculation, but this isn't 2005 anymore.
BluRay is here, it's dropping in price, and people are buying it. The
only matter for discussion is how quickly it's being adopted-- there's
NO reason to think that any VOD solution is hindering it right now.

Right now, I'm sure someone is waiting on a report to see if the
public is ready to buy into this whole "internet" fad all the kids are
taking about...

--

Aaron J. Bossig

http://www.GodsLabRat.com
 
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Derek Janssen
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      05-14-2008
Doug Jacobs wrote:

> Tarkus <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>
>>Only the geekiest of geeks would even know how to download and watch
>>movies on their televisions, assuming the bandwidth is even available.
>>And are they going to buy it every time they want to watch it?

>
> AppleTV, Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 all say "hi".


AppleTV, meanwhile, adds "Why the heck can't we get any studios
anymore?", PS3 says "It's coming, okay, be patient!!", and XBox went
down with the Red Ring again.

> Granted, none of them are spectacularly popular right now,


(...HOO-BOY!! >_< )

> the selection is slim, the prices are high (IMHO anyways)


In most people's opinion, in fact--
They started out *nominally* lower than purchasing the DVD at Wal-mart
for unlimited plays ($9-14.99), and with standard DVD prices now
dropping to clearance level, are equal at best.

For those who want to "save money" by burning downloads on DVD-R.

> and the video is highly of compressed. However, it's a start.


A clunky, overpriced, severely limited, and technologically confusing
start, but...

> Netflix also has its own streaming service for movies, and there are
> rumors that it may be forming a partnership with the 360 as well, meaning
> you can use your netflix account to stream movies to your 360 and watch
> them on your TV.


Or use their DVD service, for the exact same price.

Derek Janssen
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Derek Janssen
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      05-14-2008
Doug Jacobs wrote:
> (E-Mail Removed) wrote:
>
>>Granted, this is largely speculation, but this isn't 2005 anymore.
>>BluRay is here, it's dropping in price, and people are buying it. The
>>only matter for discussion is how quickly it's being adopted-- there's
>>NO reason to think that any VOD solution is hindering it right now.

>
>
> Actually, my understanding was that blu-ray was doing just the opposite -
> blu-ray may have won, but prices are remaining high


They're *still* $39.99? Where?? 0_0''

> and people aren't buying it.


And sales records aren't being successively broken with every new
hi-profile mainstream release...

(Granted, with all the goofy/desperate releases, we haven't had the
"killer-app" mainstream Matrix title yet outside of Pixar, but
Paramount's still acting coy about Godfather and Indiana Jones by the
end of the year.)

> Of course, those who were assuming that blu-ray would skyrocket
> just as DVD did are ignoring several factors, such as the fact that bly-ray
> requires a HDTV to even have a chance of taking advantage of its enhanced
> picture.


And speculation that HDTV's, like DVD players in '00, will be next
Christmas's "mandatory" shopping-splurge gift for Black Friday '08.

Yes, that's what everyone said about BF'07, but that was back when
HD-DVD was still around to spoil the game and be "the Hillary Clinton of
home theater"...
With network broadcast now 80% HDTV, It's All About Change.

> Again, I think blu-ray will basically be regarded as a more successful
> version of LaserDisk.


With the exception that you can actually *find* Blu-ray disks in Target
and Best Buy--
Without having to search out some obscure storefront boutique in the
college-town district, so you can order a unreleased Japanese title on
import.

> It won't overtake DVD because the cost of entry (a
> large HDTV) is too high and frankly, doesn't deliver enough of a "wow!" to
> encourage people to replace their perfectly fine - and now upscalable -
> DVDs with blu-rays.


Still don't own one yet, huh?

Derek Janssen (eh, those whiny Have-not's again...)
(E-Mail Removed)
 
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