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Blu-ray's new battlefield

 
 
Lloyd Parsons
Guest
Posts: n/a
 
      02-22-2008
In article <fZrvj.9106$zo3.5030@trndny04>,
Derek Janssen <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:

> http://www.velocityreviews.com/forums/(E-Mail Removed) wrote:
>
> > On Feb 21, 11:47 am, "Rastus O'Ginga" <(E-Mail Removed)>
> > wrote:
> >
> >>Why do so many people say this. Do you think Sony sacrificed their
> >>game console lead to sell low-end Blu-ray disc and players?

> >
> >
> > That's exactly what I think. The only other conclusion is that Sony
> > really didn't think that pricing their console several hundred dollars
> > above their closest competition would cost them sales. I'm fairly
> > confident that their marketing department knows they could have sold
> > many, many more PS3s at $350 than they did at $600... but still, Sony
> > insisted on using BluRay, which drove up the price of the unit.

>
> The whole point of a next-gen game was to play up to HDTV specs, so they
> were going to design for some Blu-style format regardless--
> However, there had to be some super-bowl nostalgia for Sony feeling that
> their PS2 had "invented" beginning DVD acceptance with the gamer-fans
> back in '98, and they weren't going to settle for add-on consoles this
> time, either.
>
> (Had they, in reality?--YMMV. A generation of PS2 fanboys of that day
> will immediately jump and devil-sign that they had, though, doodz!)
>
> >>If anything, I'd expect
> >>the average prices to now go up for Blu-rays.

> >
> > I'm still amazed that anyone can take this theory seriously. More and
> > more CE companies are jumping on board to make Blu-Ray players and PC
> > drives. The competition between those companies (coupled with more
> > people buying into the format) will drive the prices DOWN.

>
> And as has been mentioned <grooaaannn> REPEATEDLY!!!, it was the format
> war that kept prices *up*--
> Namely by keeping the assembly parts rare, the wholesale supply of disks
> low, the mood of third-party licensees timid, and adding more
> development and low-volume costs to pass along to the consumer.
>
> ...When there's only one kind of disk, it's easier to make more of them.
> We'll be happy to explain that in more detail, if the business-economics
> jargon is too complicated.
>
> Derek Janssen
> (E-Mail Removed)


Sony has repeatedly said that today's prices for BluRay are artificially
low.

The 'format war' was the reason for pricing to be as good as it is now,
not the other way around. You can expect the prices to come down more,
but more slowly now that HDDVD is out of the picture.
 
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Tarkus
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Posts: n/a
 
      02-22-2008
Lloyd Parsons wrote:
> Sony has repeatedly said that today's prices for BluRay are artificially
> low.


Artificially low given the lack of competition and consumer demand.

> The 'format war' was the reason for pricing to be as good as it is now,
> not the other way around. You can expect the prices to come down more,
> but more slowly now that HDDVD is out of the picture.


I disagree, because competition and consumer demand is now going UP.

Best Buy is already selling $15 Blu-ray discs.
 
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The alMIGHTY N
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Posts: n/a
 
      02-22-2008
On Feb 20, 1:14 pm, Dave U.Random <(E-Mail Removed)>
wrote:
> "Blu-ray has won the high-def war. But with challenges from low-
> end DVD players, digital distribution, and more, a new
> battlefield is forming..."
>
> Business Week article:http://easyurl.net/battlefield


Here's an interesting take: http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2007/1...is-the-new-hd/
 
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Lloyd Parsons
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Posts: n/a
 
      02-22-2008
In article <(E-Mail Removed)>,
Tarkus <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:

> Lloyd Parsons wrote:
> > Sony has repeatedly said that today's prices for BluRay are artificially
> > low.

>
> Artificially low given the lack of competition and consumer demand.
>
> > The 'format war' was the reason for pricing to be as good as it is now,
> > not the other way around. You can expect the prices to come down more,
> > but more slowly now that HDDVD is out of the picture.

>
> I disagree, because competition and consumer demand is now going UP.
>
> Best Buy is already selling $15 Blu-ray discs.


True. But I've been paying that price most of last year with all the
BOGOs and such. That BB price is not so much a cheaper price as
recognizing that $30 discs will languish on the shelves.

That said, the BD discs at $15 aren't exactly flying off the shelf
around here either. Has BD made more than a 2% penetration yet?

All of them involved in selling BD stuff are trying to figure out how to
create market demand. As of today, they haven't got it right. With no
player below ~=$325 yet, the price of the player is holding people off.

Right now, my prediction that if BD won now, it would be a niche item is
true. It will remain so until at least one entry level player hits the
market at sub-$200 pricepoint. Also exacerbating the problem is the
issue of a not complete specification, the slowness of most players in
the loading, the non-playing of some BD discs by early players, the
overall twitchiness of the BD players and the use of firmware updates.
The average buyer of CE stuff isn't interested and won't tolerate this.
They want a well performing, never needs upgraded player. BD isn't
there yet.

And coupled with reports that the PS3 is the only player that is
relatively trouble free in comparison, the task of bringing standalones
to market that will be acceptable appears daunting. Proven by the fact
that all the standalones are frozen products that can never be upgraded
to the finalized specifications of BD. Poor design, coupled with poor
implementation is the norm in the BD world.

The problem with all of this is that while the picture with BD (and
HDDVD too) is much better than previous DVD players, it isn't good
enough to compel the average buyer to spring for much more money to get
it. We that have it talk about the technology and the uncompressed
audio available, but in the case of the audio, since most people still
use the TV speakers, it has no value. And the technology only sells to
the geeks and audio/video-philes, not to the general marketplace.

Keep in mind that the phony 'format war' was never about which was
better tech, only about who would write the bigger uh, er 'marketing
funds'...
 
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Phisherman
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Posts: n/a
 
      02-22-2008
On Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:47:46 -0800 (PST), "Rastus O'Ginga"
<(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:

>On Feb 20, 11:48*pm, "J Brockley" <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>> <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote in message
>>
>> news:(E-Mail Removed)...
>> On Feb 20, 12:14 pm, Dave U.Random <anonym...@anonymitaet-im-
>>
>> inter.net> wrote:
>> > "Blu-ray has won the high-def war. But with challenges from low-
>> > end DVD players, digital distribution, and more, a new
>> > battlefield is forming..."

>>
>> > Business Week article:http://easyurl.net/battlefield
>> > I think that unless blu-ray discs and players come down to a
>> > comparable price to standard dvds and players, then it will be just a
>> > niche market like laserdisc was. *I just don't see standard dvds going
>> > away anytime soon.

>>
>> I think now the uncertainty has gone cheap blu ray players arein inevitable,
>> its only a matter of time before cheap Chinese players start appearing. They
>> don't have to be as cheap as DVD either just close enough to make it "a may
>> as well have it" type decision.

>
>Why do so many people say this. Do you think Sony sacrificed their
>game console lead to sell low-end Blu-ray disc and players? It was a
>move to get a monopoly and make money on premiums for years to come.
>It is an impossibility that a standard controlled by Sony will ever be
>as cheap as an industry standard like DVD. If anything, I'd expect
>the average prices to now go up for Blu-rays. And I don't see a
>reasonably priced Blu-ray recorder happening anytime soon, which is a
>HUGE detriment to the format.
>
>-r


Just so many people will buy Blu-ray discs at the high price. I'll
embrace Blu-ray when I can get a Blu-ray recorder for $200. Until
then, I'm using DVDs. Afterall, high-quality DVD recorders are $30
and quality DVD-R discs are about 30 cents each. Look at the cost per
Gigabyte. As for Blu-ray players I'll wait for something under $75.
Regular DVDs will probably be around for many years, depending on the
Blu-ray price drop.
 
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Phisherman
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Posts: n/a
 
      02-22-2008
I was surprised it took until spring of 2007 for the local video store
to get rid of all their VHS tapes! Plus, some of the old classic
movies are only available on VHS. I either have to (illegally)
transfer these VHS movies to DVD or keep my VHS unit. The DVD to
Blu-ray transition won't go (amazingly) fast like vinyl to DVD.
 
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The alMIGHTY N
Guest
Posts: n/a
 
      02-22-2008
On Feb 22, 12:12 am, Derek Janssen <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
> (E-Mail Removed) wrote:
> > On Feb 21, 11:47 am, "Rastus O'Ginga" <(E-Mail Removed)>
> > wrote:

>
> >>Why do so many people say this. Do you think Sony sacrificed their
> >>game console lead to sell low-end Blu-ray disc and players?

>
> > That's exactly what I think. The only other conclusion is that Sony
> > really didn't think that pricing their console several hundred dollars
> > above their closest competition would cost them sales. I'm fairly
> > confident that their marketing department knows they could have sold
> > many, many more PS3s at $350 than they did at $600... but still, Sony
> > insisted on using BluRay, which drove up the price of the unit.

>
> The whole point of a next-gen game was to play up to HDTV specs, so they
> were going to design for some Blu-style format regardless--
> However, there had to be some super-bowl nostalgia for Sony feeling that
> their PS2 had "invented" beginning DVD acceptance with the gamer-fans
> back in '98, and they weren't going to settle for add-on consoles this
> time, either.
>
> (Had they, in reality?--YMMV. A generation of PS2 fanboys of that day
> will immediately jump and devil-sign that they had, though, doodz!)
>
> >>If anything, I'd expect
> >>the average prices to now go up for Blu-rays.

>
> > I'm still amazed that anyone can take this theory seriously. More and
> > more CE companies are jumping on board to make Blu-Ray players and PC
> > drives. The competition between those companies (coupled with more
> > people buying into the format) will drive the prices DOWN.

>
> And as has been mentioned <grooaaannn> REPEATEDLY!!!, it was the format
> war that kept prices *up*--
> Namely by keeping the assembly parts rare, the wholesale supply of disks
> low, the mood of third-party licensees timid, and adding more
> development and low-volume costs to pass along to the consumer.
>
> ...When there's only one kind of disk, it's easier to make more of them.
> We'll be happy to explain that in more detail, if the business-economics
> jargon is too complicated.
>
> Derek Janssen
> (E-Mail Removed)


The format war drove prices DOWN. If it weren't for the two sides
pulling out all stops to get early consumer support, we would still be
playing hundreds more for a standalone player and $35 for a movie at
Amazon.

I don't see how anybody could claim that if there wasn't a format war,
we would have had all these B1G1 and B2G1 sales, 50% off MSRP
constantly, price drops left and right.
 
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The alMIGHTY N
Guest
Posts: n/a
 
      02-22-2008
On Feb 22, 11:02 am, Tarkus <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
> Lloyd Parsons wrote:
> > Sony has repeatedly said that today's prices for BluRay are artificially
> > low.

>
> Artificially low given the lack of competition and consumer demand.
>
> > The 'format war' was the reason for pricing to be as good as it is now,
> > not the other way around. You can expect the prices to come down more,
> > but more slowly now that HDDVD is out of the picture.

>
> I disagree, because competition and consumer demand is now going UP.
>
> Best Buy is already selling $15 Blu-ray discs.


$15 on sale... and those are bottom of the barrel crapfest movies.
 
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Tarkus
Guest
Posts: n/a
 
      02-22-2008
The alMIGHTY N wrote:
> On Feb 22, 11:02 am, Tarkus <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>> Lloyd Parsons wrote:
>>> Sony has repeatedly said that today's prices for BluRay are artificially
>>> low.

>> Artificially low given the lack of competition and consumer demand.
>>
>>> The 'format war' was the reason for pricing to be as good as it is now,
>>> not the other way around. You can expect the prices to come down more,
>>> but more slowly now that HDDVD is out of the picture.

>> I disagree, because competition and consumer demand is now going UP.
>>
>> Best Buy is already selling $15 Blu-ray discs.

>
> $15 on sale... and those are bottom of the barrel crapfest movies.


So? People said the sales would dry up after the war was over. And
crapfast is in the eye of the beholder.
 
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Derek Janssen
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Posts: n/a
 
      02-22-2008
The alMIGHTY N wrote:
> On Feb 22, 11:02 am, Tarkus <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>
>>Lloyd Parsons wrote:
>>
>>>Sony has repeatedly said that today's prices for BluRay are artificially
>>>low.

>>
>>Artificially low given the lack of competition and consumer demand.
>>
>>
>>>The 'format war' was the reason for pricing to be as good as it is now,
>>>not the other way around. You can expect the prices to come down more,
>>>but more slowly now that HDDVD is out of the picture.

>>
>>I disagree, because competition and consumer demand is now going UP.
>>
>>Best Buy is already selling $15 Blu-ray discs.

>
> $15 on sale... and those are bottom of the barrel crapfest movies.


And the "good" New Releases are selling at Best Buy for $29.99--
Which is about...what DVD's were selling for before BB started
mass-marketing them.

Derek Janssen (and the wheel of format evolution just keeps turning)
(E-Mail Removed)
 
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