Bits from Bill: Death to the DVD Disc is Coming

Death to the DVD Disc is Coming

No, I'm not joining those who have predicted that Sony's Blu-ray has
won over HD-DVD. What I'm suggesting is the optical disc format has
reached it's peak and will go the way of the cassette tape.

Forget about the DVD Wars
The battle between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD format hasn't helped. Even with
Warner Brothers exclusively backing the Blu-Ray Association, sales of
movies on disc has been on the decline. This week at CES a lot of
folks are calling Blu-Ray a winner even though the adult industry and
Microsoft has backed HD-DVD.

Some have also said Microsoft wants both to fail because "They want
confusion in the market until they perfect the digital downloads." I
say, "It worked!". In fact today, Microsoft acknowledged it is backing
off plans to promote HD-DVD exclusively in its xBox game console.
Advocates for both claim superior video and audio but they're missing
what consumers want. There's a point where the average human can't
detect the differences in sound and appearance. If anything, the
increases in clarity can show more flaws in productions. Why would I
pay $20+ for disc when I can just download the movie to my PC or TiVo
for $12 or less.

The future media is Solid State Memory or what's commonly called Flash
memory. I wrote about this a year ago, and I'll stick by last years
prediction.
Granted a Blu-ray DVD can hold 25 GB's per layer it's only a matter of
time before we see an explosion in Flash(NAND) memory size. HD-DVD
only holds 15 GB per layer. Yesterday at CES SanDisk introduced a new
12 GB microSDHD card. SanDisk calculates with 12 GB you can store a
24.5 hours of video along with 2,600 photos and 1,500 songs.

Alternates to DVD

While the size and cost of flash memory isn't there yet it's coming.
It's not likely I can fit a Blu-ray disc into my Phone, GPS or video
camera. No moving parts or lasers means my battery will last a lot
longer watching a movie from flash memory. It's also much easier and
cheaper to build a flash memory slot into a new TV or other home
appliance than it is a disc player.
My new OLPC XO laptop isn't the first laptop to choose a flash drive
in place of a mechanical hard drive and DVD and it won't be the last.
No moving parts, minimal power consumption, well over 100,000 write
cycles, all means my next laptop will include a solid state drive
instead of a legacy hard drive. I won't miss trying to figure out if
my DVD player supports +R - R, +RW or -RW.

http://billpstudios.blogspot.com/200...is-coming.html

Ablang

I've also foreseen the end to movie DVDs but believe they'll be around for
awhile. I can't predict how long, but I'm betting on another 5-10 years. In
the meantime it might be wise to stockpile a supply of the equipment needed
to play them, like some ordinary DVD players, TVs, blank DVDs and burners
(if you burn them), etc. There's no guarantee those things will be around
for much longer.

PapaBear

On Sat, 19 Jan 2008 22:11:26 -0800 (PST), Ablang <>
wrote:

> Death to the DVD Disc is Coming
>
>No, I'm not joining those who have predicted that Sony's Blu-ray has
>won over HD-DVD. What I'm suggesting is the optical disc format has
>reached it's peak and will go the way of the cassette tape.
>
>Forget about the DVD Wars
>The battle between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD format hasn't helped. Even with
>Warner Brothers exclusively backing the Blu-Ray Association, sales of
>movies on disc has been on the decline. This week at CES a lot of
>folks are calling Blu-Ray a winner even though the adult industry and
>Microsoft has backed HD-DVD.
>
>Some have also said Microsoft wants both to fail because "They want
>confusion in the market until they perfect the digital downloads." I
>say, "It worked!". In fact today, Microsoft acknowledged it is backing
>off plans to promote HD-DVD exclusively in its xBox game console.
>Advocates for both claim superior video and audio but they're missing
>what consumers want. There's a point where the average human can't
>detect the differences in sound and appearance. If anything, the
>increases in clarity can show more flaws in productions. Why would I
>pay $20+ for disc when I can just download the movie to my PC or TiVo
>for $12 or less.
>
>The future media is Solid State Memory or what's commonly called Flash
>memory. I wrote about this a year ago, and I'll stick by last years
>prediction.
>Granted a Blu-ray DVD can hold 25 GB's per layer it's only a matter of
>time before we see an explosion in Flash(NAND) memory size. HD-DVD
>only holds 15 GB per layer. Yesterday at CES SanDisk introduced a new
>12 GB microSDHD card. SanDisk calculates with 12 GB you can store a
>24.5 hours of video along with 2,600 photos and 1,500 songs.
>
>Alternates to DVD
>
>While the size and cost of flash memory isn't there yet it's coming.
>It's not likely I can fit a Blu-ray disc into my Phone, GPS or video
>camera. No moving parts or lasers means my battery will last a lot
>longer watching a movie from flash memory. It's also much easier and
>cheaper to build a flash memory slot into a new TV or other home
>appliance than it is a disc player.
>My new OLPC XO laptop isn't the first laptop to choose a flash drive
>in place of a mechanical hard drive and DVD and it won't be the last.
>No moving parts, minimal power consumption, well over 100,000 write
>cycles, all means my next laptop will include a solid state drive
>instead of a legacy hard drive. I won't miss trying to figure out if
>my DVD player supports +R - R, +RW or -RW.
>
>http://billpstudios.blogspot.com/200...is-coming.html

Aw, Bill's just upset because he came in second place this time with
the format war. Now, he's going to try to snuff it off by offering
something in it's place so he can still look like he's some kind of
technological leader. A "bit" arrogant, isn't it? Why should I
support HD-DVD from someone that puts out the worst products of the
year? (Based on editorial reviews) Oh yeah, early adopters knew what
they were getting into 'cause the same thing happened with HDTV just a
few years ago! HDTVs weren't upgradeable. They've probably already
bought new HDTVs since then. That's the risk they take. They need to
quit whining and move on.

Just Visiting

In article <h7Ckj.41542$> ,
"PapaBear" <2x> wrote:

> I've also foreseen the end to movie DVDs but believe they'll be around for
> awhile. I can't predict how long, but I'm betting on another 5-10 years. In
> the meantime it might be wise to stockpile a supply of the equipment needed
> to play them, like some ordinary DVD players, TVs, blank DVDs and burners
> (if you burn them), etc. There's no guarantee those things will be around
> for much longer.

Just like video tapes and VCRs.

dick

Dick Sidbury

Dick Sidbury wrote:
> In article <h7Ckj.41542$> ,
> "PapaBear" <2x> wrote:
>
>> I've also foreseen the end to movie DVDs but believe they'll be
>> around for awhile. I can't predict how long, but I'm betting on
>> another 5-10 years. In the meantime it might be wise to stockpile a
>> supply of the equipment needed to play them, like some ordinary DVD
>> players, TVs, blank DVDs and burners (if you burn them), etc.
>> There's no guarantee those things will be around for much longer.
>
> Just like video tapes and VCRs.

VCRs are still being sold, but I haven't seen a movie for sale on
tape in a long time.

Mark Jones

On Jan 20, 3:57*pm, "Mark Jones" <noem...@mindspring.com> wrote:
> Dick Sidbury wrote:
> > In article <h7Ckj.41542$lD6.33...@newssvr27.news.prodigy.net> ,
> > *"PapaBear" <PaPaB...@thebears.x2x> wrote:
>
> >> I've also foreseen the end to movie DVDs but believe they'll be
> >> around for awhile. I can't predict how long, but I'm betting on
> >> another 5-10 years. In the meantime it might be wise to stockpile a
> >> supply of the equipment needed to play them, like some ordinary DVD
> >> players, TVs, blank DVDs and burners (if you burn them), etc.
> >> There's no guarantee those things will be around for much longer.
>
> > Just like video tapes and VCRs.
>
> VCRs are still being sold, but I haven't seen a movie for sale on
> tape in a long time.

Because nobody releases on VHS anymore. Also, there are currently no
stand-alone VCR's in production (I know, I looked for once recently).
They're all DVD/VHS combo units.

That being said, I think DVD is going to be around for a long time.
The consumer acceptance rate and durability of the media are just too
high. Eventually, some sort of streaming HD on demand will likely
kill the optical discs, but I think it will be a decade or two before
it happens.

Everybody is fond of citing all sorts of reasons for the slowdown in
DVD sales, but I think it has mostly to do with the format being
around for 10 years. Just about every catalog title that would sell
has been released already, and there is a tremendous secondary market
due to the durability of the media. Back at the height of VHS I was
always leery of buying 2nd hand VHS, because you never knew when it
had been owned by some clown who used butter-covered hands to shove it
in his never-cleaned VCR. I have no such qualms about DVD because
there are few sins Windex cannot fix. I still think people like to
buy movies on disc, the studios just have to give them something
worthwhile to buy.

-beaumon

lorincantrell@yahoo.com

On Sun, 20 Jan 2008 19:40:44 -0800 (PST), wrote:

> I have no such qualms about DVD because
>there are few sins Windex cannot fix.


That is the LAST substance you would ever want to use on an optical
disc... any format.

Heavily washed hands in HOT water with dish soap or any anti-bacterial
hand soap, and then wash the disc with a freshly soaped up pair of hands.
make all rub motions from center to edge, and rinse in water, sling off
excess and dab dry, NOT wiping.

THAT soap is far better at not scratching up your disc than Windex and
ANY wipes of any kind could ever be.

Of course, the best disc is one that has never been touched, and
therefore would never need to be cleaned.

Windex is the LAST product anyone should ever use on a PLASTIC optical
surface.

Jeez, you talk like you have been in the dark all your ****ing life.

MakeNoAttemptToAdjustYourSet

On Jan 21, 6:12*am, MakeNoAttemptToAdjustYourSet
<DoNotAttemptToAdjustYour...@anytime.org> wrote:
> On Sun, 20 Jan 2008 19:40:44 -0800 (PST), lorincantr...@yahoo.com wrote:
> > *I have no such qualms about DVD because
> >there are few sins Windex cannot fix.
>
> * That is the LAST substance you would ever want to use on an optical
> disc... *any format.
>
> * Heavily washed hands in HOT water with dish soap or any anti-bacterial
> hand soap, and then wash the disc with a freshly soaped up pair of hands.
> make all rub motions from center to edge, and rinse in water, sling off
> excess and dab dry, NOT wiping.
>
> * THAT soap is far better at not scratching up your disc than Windex and
> ANY wipes of any kind could ever be.
>
> * Of course, the best disc is one that has never been touched, and
> therefore would never need to be cleaned.
>
> *Windex is the LAST product anyone should ever use on a PLASTIC optical
> surface.
>
> * Jeez, you talk like you have been in the dark all your ****ing life.

Well, it was windex or a belt sander.

-beaumon

lorincantrell@yahoo.com

wrote:

> The consumer acceptance rate and durability of the media are just too
> high. Eventually, some sort of streaming HD on demand will likely
> kill the optical discs, but I think it will be a decade or two before
> it happens.

I know that a lot of people think downloads are going to be the end of DVD
or physical media, but think about it - we've had the capability to buy
electronic versions of entire books for over a decade, yet bookstores
aren't in any danger of closing now, are they?

Part of the reason for this is that many people are going to want a
physical copy of things they buy. Even with the explosion in digital music
with things like iTunes, most people are still just ripping music from CDs
that they own.

Digital distribution may be fine for certain things. Rentals come to mind
immediatly. Why wait for the mailman to bring your Netflix to you when
you can download your movie over night?

> Everybody is fond of citing all sorts of reasons for the slowdown in
> DVD sales, but I think it has mostly to do with the format being
> around for 10 years. Just about every catalog title that would sell
> has been released already, and there is a tremendous secondary market
> due to the durability of the media. Back at the height of VHS I was
> always leery of buying 2nd hand VHS, because you never knew when it
> had been owned by some clown who used butter-covered hands to shove it
> in his never-cleaned VCR. I have no such qualms about DVD because
> there are few sins Windex cannot fix. I still think people like to
> buy movies on disc, the studios just have to give them something
> worthwhile to buy.

Oh, I can think of tons of things that haven't been yet released onto DVD
- and probably never will be due to copyright issues...

WKRP hasn't been fully released - and what little has been, has had to
have the music removed from it (boo!) Music is also the reason why
there'll never be a "proper" release of Beavis & Butthead either. Going
along with TV shows, where's Max Headroom, and The Real Ghostbusters?
Meanwhile, garbage like "Flava Of Love - season 2" graces the shelves of
my local library...

Anyways, as for why DVD sales are dropping? I can think of many reasons:

1: Economy. It sucks right now (and has sucked for years), so folks have
less cash to spend.

2: Quality (of content). Do you REALLY need to *buy* every two-bit bomb?
I know when DVD was new and shiny, folks would buy just about anything so
they could show off their shiny new DVD player. After all, look at the
HD-DVD and Blu-Ray fanboys arguing about how GREAT the picture looks when
describing such hits like 'Tallegeda Nights', or 'Knocked Up'...

3: Suckers. People are finally realizing that they've been suckered by
companies who release the same title over and over again, each time adding
new features and commentaries. This is practically spitting on the fans
of that title, since they're the ones who bought the first version which
basically looked like it was mastered from a bad VHS tape for $30, only to
later be told about the big super-anniversary edition with properly
remastered footage, plus extras. TV releases are particularly bad in this
area... Sure you COULD buy Farscape season one, 1 disc at a time for $22
each when they were first released (like I did)...and then later find Season
One in a boxset that not only takes up less space, but only costs a fraction
of what the individual discs did! After being bitten a few times, I stopped
buying and instead just wait for the sales on the boxsets to occur. If it's
something I really want to see now, there's always Netflix, which brings me
to...

4: Rentals. With Netflix, Blockbuster and other smaller companies, it's
possible to get just about any DVD delivered to your door for a fraction
of buying it. I'm sure that many of us here have titles in our libraries
that we'd only consider watching as a rental had that option been
available at the time.... However you feel sort of bad about trying to
sell those movies since you know you'll only get, at most, like $5-7 for
them. I know at the begining of the DVD era, there was an explosion in
purchasing of DVDs in almost a rush to build a personal library. I think
that "craze" has worn off for most people now - especially when you
consider that most of the stuff out there just isn't good enough to be
taking up space in your house. If you do get an urge to watch something,
just readjust your Netflix queue, and it'll show up in a day or two.
that's good enough for most people, I think.


Enthusiasts will continue to pour money into their personal libraries, but
to think that the vast majority of people will do the same with
HD-DVD/Blu-Ray as they did with DVD is just silly. Even if people have a
HDTV and a HD video player, it's hard to justify buying much given the points
I mentioned above.

--
It's not broken. It's...advanced.

Doug Jacobs

Doug Jacobs wrote:

> wrote:
>
>
>>The consumer acceptance rate and durability of the media are just too
>>high. Eventually, some sort of streaming HD on demand will likely
>>kill the optical discs, but I think it will be a decade or two before
>>it happens.
>
>
> I know that a lot of people think downloads are going to be the end of DVD
> or physical media, but think about it - we've had the capability to buy
> electronic versions of entire books for over a decade, yet bookstores
> aren't in any danger of closing now, are they?

In fact, Amazon's had to RE-launch electronic books for, what, the third
time, and the public's *still* not buying them!

(Although books aren't subject to studios' el-dorado dream of taking
back "control" over their movies' screenings, and getting that sweet
percentage of EVERY customer viewing--
You'd think the curtain would finally have been ripped back on the Evil
Master Plot after the DiVX Wars.)

> Part of the reason for this is that many people are going to want a
> physical copy of things they buy. Even with the explosion in digital music
> with things like iTunes, most people are still just ripping music from CDs
> that they own.
>
> Digital distribution may be fine for certain things. Rentals come to mind
> immediatly. Why wait for the mailman to bring your Netflix to you when
> you can download your movie over night?

....Um, because sometimes I rent the disc to watch the documentary?

(Or a hi-def trailer that was supposed to be on the disk?...
Or rented "March of the Penguins", which I was never really crazy about
in the first place, solely for the purpose of watching the bonus-extra
Warner Bugs Bunny cartoon mastered in 1080?)

>>Everybody is fond of citing all sorts of reasons for the slowdown in
>>DVD sales, but I think it has mostly to do with the format being
>>around for 10 years.

> Anyways, as for why DVD sales are dropping? I can think of many reasons:

I can remember in the late-90's, when some independent anime companies
were leery of getting into the new waters of DVD, and still put some of
their lesser-selling niche titles out on VHS-only, to "test customer
interest" in future disk release for the titles--And fans felt
"blackmailed" into buying VHS tapes they knew they'd have to throw away
in a couple of months anyway (as opposed to not buying it, and giving
the company the wrong idea)...
At that point in the 90's, nobody was buying *any* VHS under normal
circumstances, PERIOD, and we fans grit our teeth and grumbled, "Making
us buy the...Ohh, pally, you'd BETTER come through with that disk, for
what we have to go through to keep you happy... >_< "

....Now update those sentiments to hi-def owners and DVD.

Derek Janssen

Derek Janssen