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Lawrence D'Oliveiro <_zealand> wrote:

> In message <1hqcwl1.fwlela1s3sklbN%>, David Empson
> wrote:
>
> > Lawrence D'Oliveiro <_zealand> wrote:
> >
> >> All in all, you're just stating (a not exhaustive list of) reasons why
> >> iPod users might be buying so few songs--which is exactly the point I was
> >> making.
> >
> > The first example would tend to reduce the number of songs per iPod. The
> > second and third would tend to increase the number of songs per iPod.
>
> Nevertheless, there is the actual figure of about 22 songs per iPod, which
> is hardly changing over time.

You assume every iTunes Music Store customer uses an iPod.

> People who own music players should be buying more music over time. If iPod
> sales are being made at a certain rate, then the rate of music sales should
> increase even more.

They are. Just not on iTunes as much as good old CDs. Duh.

Regards,
Jamie Kahn Genet
--
If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

"Lawrence D'Oliveiro" <_zealand> wrote in message
news:elr6kr$ble$...


> That's Forrester, desperately trying to spin their own figures to take the
> pressure off them from the panicking investors. If a 58% drop over 6
> months
> isn't a "trend", what the hell is it?

A large seasonal variance amongst a very small sample size?

In message <4583856d$>, El Chippy wrote:

> "Lawrence D'Oliveiro" <_zealand> wrote in message
> news:elr6kr$ble$...
>
>> That's Forrester, desperately trying to spin their own figures to take
>> the pressure off them from the panicking investors. If a 58% drop over 6
>> months isn't a "trend", what the hell is it?
>
> A large seasonal variance amongst a very small sample size?

6 months is a pretty long "season", isn't it?

In message <20061215220707304+>, Roger Johnstone
wrote:

> The proper shape of that curve depends on who you believe.
>
> http://playlistmag.com/news/2006/12/...php?lsrc=mwrss
>
> "Digital media research firm comScore Networks on Wednesday released a
> report showing that revenue from Apple?s iTunes Store rose 84 percent in
> the first three quarters of 2006 versus the same period a year ago."

And on the other hand, Nielsen SoundScan reported a drop in digital download
sales across the board, consistent with Forrester.

"Lawrence D'Oliveiro" <_zealand> wrote in message
news:em02hc$2l4$...
> In message <4583856d$>, El Chippy wrote:
>
>> "Lawrence D'Oliveiro" <_zealand> wrote in message
>> news:elr6kr$ble$...
>>
>>> That's Forrester, desperately trying to spin their own figures to take
>>> the pressure off them from the panicking investors. If a 58% drop over 6
>>> months isn't a "trend", what the hell is it?
>>
>> A large seasonal variance amongst a very small sample size?
>
> 6 months is a pretty long "season", isn't it?

You mean a pretty long off season i assume?

And no, it isn't. And what relevance can be pulled from a sample size of 161
buyers on a service the size of iTunes? particularly when there is no
informatoin on why those 161 where selected, or where from.

In <em02jj$2l4$> Lawrence D'Oliveiro wrote:
> In message <20061215220707304+>, Roger
> Johnstone wrote:
>
>> The proper shape of that curve depends on who you believe.
>>
>> http://playlistmag.com/news/2006/12/...rge/index.php?
>> lsrc=mwrss "Digital media research firm comScore Networks on
>> Wednesday released a report showing that revenue from Apple?s iTunes
>> Store rose 84 percent in the first three quarters of 2006 versus the
>> same period a year ago."
>
> And on the other hand, Nielsen SoundScan reported a drop in digital
> download sales across the board, consistent with Forrester.

And Shaw Wu reports that iTunes Store sales for September are up 95%
against the same time last year.
http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/index...S&newsID=16749

I guess we'll have to wait until Apple announces the two billionth song
sold so we can add another point to the graph. That could be anywhere
from March to June, depending on which analyst is correct.

--
* Roger Johnstone, Invercargill, New Zealand -> http://roger.geek.nz
* PS/2 Mouse Adapter for vintage Apple II or Mac
* SCART RGB cable for Apple IIGS

In message <45839512$>, El Chippy wrote:

> "Lawrence D'Oliveiro" <_zealand> wrote in message
> news:em02hc$2l4$...
>> In message <4583856d$>, El Chippy wrote:
>>
>>> "Lawrence D'Oliveiro" <_zealand> wrote in
>>> message news:elr6kr$ble$...
>>>
>>>> That's Forrester, desperately trying to spin their own figures to take
>>>> the pressure off them from the panicking investors. If a 58% drop over
>>>> 6 months isn't a "trend", what the hell is it?
>>>
>>> A large seasonal variance amongst a very small sample size?
>>
>> 6 months is a pretty long "season", isn't it?
>
> You mean a pretty long off season i assume?
>
> And no, it isn't. And what relevance can be pulled from a sample size of
> 161 buyers on a service the size of iTunes?

<http://www.forrester.com/Research/Document/Excerpt/0,7211,40858,00.html>:

Forrester analyzed nearly 2 million credit and debit card transactions
for the 27-month period from April 2004 through June 2006.

"Lawrence D'Oliveiro" <_zealand> wrote in message
news:em09hh$f9e$...
> In message <45839512$>, El Chippy wrote:
>
>> "Lawrence D'Oliveiro" <_zealand> wrote in message
>> news:em02hc$2l4$...
>>> In message <4583856d$>, El Chippy wrote:
>>>
>>>> "Lawrence D'Oliveiro" <_zealand> wrote in
>>>> message news:elr6kr$ble$...
>>>>
>>>>> That's Forrester, desperately trying to spin their own figures to take
>>>>> the pressure off them from the panicking investors. If a 58% drop over
>>>>> 6 months isn't a "trend", what the hell is it?
>>>>
>>>> A large seasonal variance amongst a very small sample size?
>>>
>>> 6 months is a pretty long "season", isn't it?
>>
>> You mean a pretty long off season i assume?
>>
>> And no, it isn't. And what relevance can be pulled from a sample size of
>> 161 buyers on a service the size of iTunes?
>
> <http://www.forrester.com/Research/Document/Excerpt/0,7211,40858,00.html>:
>
> Forrester analyzed nearly 2 million credit and debit card transactions
> for the 27-month period from April 2004 through June 2006.

2 million credit and debit card transactions != 2 million itunes
transactions
from what i can make out it is ~2700 cards, over 27 months = roughly 27
purchases per month per card. Of which there were 2791 iTunes purchases.


from
http://blogs.forrester.com/devicesme....html#comments
begin quote

"Remy Fiorentino from Forrester here, I helped Josh with the analysis for
this report.
TIMK - The 65% decline in revenue was between January 2006 and June 2006.
This decline is statistically significant, but is still based on a sample of
181 iTunes buyers. When we compare this to 2005 data, we see that revenues
declined 39% from January 2005 to June 2005. Is 2006 worse than 2005? It's
hard to say. However, the January 2005 revenue was a bit higher than the
January 2006 revenue, and the June 2005 revenue was more than twice the June
2006 revenue. Our data suggests that the iTunes growth has slowed, though
neither Josh nor I would say sales have "collapsed".

end quote.

further down that page:

Methodology
The data for this report came from Forrester's Ultimate Consumer Panel
(UCP), a nationally representative panel of more than 7,000 US online
consumers. The UCP passively and continuously tracks statement and
transaction activity for credit cards and debit cards used by panel
households. To derive the iTunes data above, Forrester analyzed nearly 2
million credit card and debit card transactions for the 27-month period from
April 2004 to June 2006. Transactional data is based on 2,791 iTunes
purchases from this period.

Data for iTunes households was aggregated over the past 12 months, from July
2005 to June 2006, and was restricted to include only the 5,580 households
that were active members of our panel for all 12 months. The sample size for
iTunes buyers is 181 households.



whoops it was 181, not 161, my bad.

I wonder if forresters UCP is as representative as the tv ratings system
here in nz? 5580 households in a nation the size of america isn't a huge
sample. How many 13-25yos are going to bother with this market research
program for 12 months? wouldn't they be the most active in digital music
downloads?