HDDVD/Bluray: stillborn or coma

I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
have been stillborn all along.

There are 7 excellent reasons:

1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.

2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
video card, even that is useless.

3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for it
to be resolved.

4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.
Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
image. Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD & Bluray
hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going to spend
a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment or a very
good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game console.

5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.

6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/1217.html

7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the stories
on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB CDROM, or
about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray conflict is
resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:

http://www.dvd-recordable.org/Articl...reshold0.phtml

Thus, high-def discs are really a non-starter today and may never get
off the ground, absent some innovation such as a good, reliable ripping
program, or perhaps a cheap HDDVD burner.

The consumer is king and he holds the cards, not the fools who invented
the latest DRM. If industry doesn't bend over backyards and lick itself
for the entertainment of the king, their rush for profits may have been
a true Fool's Errand.

Rex

Rexunrex@yahoo.com

wrote:
> I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
> for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
> have been stillborn all along.
>
> There are 7 excellent reasons:
>
> 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
> playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.

Idiot. Why develop any new technology then? If what we have is 'good enough'

>
> 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
> are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
> newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
> The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
> good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
> video card, even that is useless.

DVD cost a fortune when it forst came out. Early adopters pay through
the nose. This is not news.
>
> 3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for it
> to be resolved.

6 months should see a clear winner emerge

>
> 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.
> Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
> image. Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD & Bluray
> hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going to spend
> a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment or a very
> good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game console.

Dickhead

>
> 5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
> as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
> non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
> invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
> organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.

Nonsense

>
> 6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
> bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
> of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
> public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
> sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
> years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:
>
> http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/1217.html

Wow, I'm convinced

>
> 7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the stories
> on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB CDROM, or
> about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray conflict is
> resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:

Vapourware.

>
> http://www.dvd-recordable.org/Articl...reshold0.phtml
>
> Thus, high-def discs are really a non-starter today and may never get
> off the ground, absent some innovation such as a good, reliable ripping
> program, or perhaps a cheap HDDVD burner.
>
> The consumer is king and he holds the cards, not the fools who invented
> the latest DRM. If industry doesn't bend over backyards and lick itself
> for the entertainment of the king, their rush for profits may have been
> a true Fool's Errand.
>
> Rex
>

Dr. GroundAxe

>I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
> for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
> have been stillborn all along.
>
> There are 7 excellent reasons:

Here is another reason:

Unlike DVD and VHS, most technologies used in HDDVD/BR are patented and
proprietary, not in public domain. Unless they are willing to lease them
cheaply or free, I don't think either one will become widespread like DVD
did.

ZR

You think DVD did not go thru the same thing as blueray/hddvd ? Look at
DVD now. There is 3 formats. - + and dvd-ram. Back when they (DVD) 1st
came out what were the prices for the drives ? Like 500.00 for a cheap
one. Media cost were what 3.00-4.00 a slice ?

Look at CDR the prices for a burner when they 1st came out were in the
area of 500+ for a drive. Media was over 2.00ea.

Prices will come down. They always do. It's going to take time.


wrote:
> I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
> for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
> have been stillborn all along.
>
> There are 7 excellent reasons:
>
> 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
> playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.
>
> 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
> are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
> newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
> The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
> good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
> video card, even that is useless.
>
> 3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for it
> to be resolved.
>
> 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.
> Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
> image. Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD & Bluray
> hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going to spend
> a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment or a very
> good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game console.
>
> 5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
> as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
> non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
> invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
> organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.
>
> 6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
> bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
> of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
> public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
> sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
> years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:
>
> http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/1217.html
>
> 7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the stories
> on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB CDROM, or
> about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray conflict is
> resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:
>
> http://www.dvd-recordable.org/Articl...reshold0.phtml
>
> Thus, high-def discs are really a non-starter today and may never get
> off the ground, absent some innovation such as a good, reliable ripping
> program, or perhaps a cheap HDDVD burner.
>
> The consumer is king and he holds the cards, not the fools who invented
> the latest DRM. If industry doesn't bend over backyards and lick itself
> for the entertainment of the king, their rush for profits may have been
> a true Fool's Errand.
>
> Rex
>

Kevin Weaver

ZR wrote:

> Unlike DVD and VHS, most technologies used in HDDVD/BR are patented and
> proprietary, not in public domain. Unless they are willing to lease them
> cheaply or free, I don't think either one will become widespread like DVD
> did.

That's a very good point, thanks.

Rexunrex@yahoo.com

<> wrote in message
news: ps.com...
>
> ZR wrote:
>
>> Unlike DVD and VHS, most technologies used in HDDVD/BR are patented and
>> proprietary, not in public domain. Unless they are willing to lease them
>> cheaply or free, I don't think either one will become widespread like DVD
>> did.
>
> That's a very good point, thanks.
>

China adopted early VCD simply because the licenses for DVD compression were
not public domain.

Quanta

<> wrote in message
news: oups.com...
>I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
> for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
> have been stillborn all along.
>
> There are 7 excellent reasons:
>
> 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
> playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.
>
> 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
> are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
> newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
> The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
> good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
> video card, even that is useless.

Why would the consumer want to buy a new tiny monitor and video card when
he's got a 50" or bigger HDTV in his living room?




> 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.

Take the family to see 4 movies and I could have bought the HD-DVD drive for
my Xbox along with a few movies and had enough left over for popcorn.

Oh, and HD-DVD blows away the picture quality of a movie theater.

Neck & Red

While taking a break from performing an interpretive dance of 'Flight of
the Bumble Bee', Dr. GroundAxe wrote:

> wrote:
>> I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
>> for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
>> have been stillborn all along.
>>
>> There are 7 excellent reasons:
>>
>> 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
>> playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.
>
> Idiot. Why develop any new technology then? If what we have is 'good enough'


Ummm. Except for one problem. DVD was a very noticeable improvement over
VHS and S-VHS. HD-DVD / Blue-Ray isn't all that noticeable of an
improvement over DVD. If marginal improvement drove innovation then S-VHS
would have replaced VHS and Digital Compact Cassette would have replaced
the conventional cassette.

>
>>
>> 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
>> are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
>> newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
>> The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
>> good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
>> video card, even that is useless.
>
> DVD cost a fortune when it forst came out. Early adopters pay through
> the nose. This is not news.

But again, most everyone who updated their video collection from VHS to
DVD isn't going to run out and replace their players and DVDs just for a
marginal at best improvement in picture and audio.


>>
>> 3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for it
>> to be resolved.
>
> 6 months should see a clear winner emerge

Won't be settled that quickly.

HD is backed by Toshiba, Microsoft, NEC and Sanyo.
Universal Studios is currently the only movie production company to solely
back HD-DVD

Blu-ray has of course Sony & Philips the original co-creators of Compact
Disc as backers. Blu-ray also has Apple Computer, Panasonic.
Dell strongly backs Blu-ray:
http://www.dell.com/content/topics/g...us&l=en&s=corp
HP has shifted from solely supporting Blu-ray to supporting both but with
a preference for Blu-ray
Sony owns a movie studio. Walt Disney, MGM and 20th Century Fox are solely
supporting Blu-ray


>
>>
>> 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.
>> Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
>> image. Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD & Bluray
>> hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going to spend
>> a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment or a very
>> good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game console.
>
> Dickhead

I've only got a very few movies that picture clarity and detail are the
centre point. Most of my movies as suitable in glorious 525 line NTSC. I
don't feel the need to upgrade just for the sake of upgrading.

>
>>
>> 5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
>> as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
>> non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
>> invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
>> organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.
>
> Nonsense

Nonsense? The AACS consortium didn't even bother to realize that by coming
up with a late to the party copy protection scheme called HDCP, they've
practically relegated TV's like my year old Toshiba 16:9 HDMI equipped set
to the trashbin. See, the HDMI specification has already been out for just
over 5 years. All sorts of manufacturers have been building sets that are
fully HDMI compliant. But now because of the AACS and their insistence of
the modification of HDMI with the inclusion of the HDCP scheme means that
HDMI has been broken. What's to stop these consortium's from changing
standards mid-stream again?
Nice thing about all of this is the coding for HDCP isn't allowed to be
carried in flashrom or other modifiable/readable media. It must be mask
programmed into the decoder. So again, if the consortium decides they need
to change something in the coding, looks like you'll be outta luck.



>
>>
>> 6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
>> bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
>> of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
>> public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
>> sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
>> years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:
>>
>> http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/1217.html
>
> Wow, I'm convinced
>
>>
>> 7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the stories
>> on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB CDROM, or
>> about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray conflict is
>> resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:
>
> Vapourware.

Lemme see, I can go into FutureShop today and get a 5 GB SD card for
about $40. Two years ago a 256MB card would have cost over $100.
I can see in 5 to 10 years flash type storage being up to 100 to 200 GB
and selling for a lot less than what the 5GB costs today.

Hitatchi and Toshiba both have commercially available 1TB 3.5 inch hard
drives. I can get a 100 GB Maxtor for less than $80.00. I can see a 10TB
hard drive on the market in less than 2 years.


This means that the debate over DVD/HD-DVD/Blu-ray may already be a thing
of the past.

Can you imagine how simple movie distribution would be in the near future?
You go to the video store with your little 20 GB SD card and the account
card from you video player. The account card would be used to encrypt the
movie so that the SD card is only readable and playable on the video
player that your account card is assigned to. If copies of your movie are
found to be floating around on the Internet, watermarks injected into the
video and audio will enable the movie to be tracked so far back as to the
last person who purchased the movie from an authorized stream vendor.

If you want packaging to go with your movie for that old time authentic
feel, these can be printed on site for a nominal fee.

The only thing holding a scheme back at the moment is the cost of the
media. Optical wins at the moment, but how much longer can it hold on?


>
>
>> http://www.dvd-recordable.org/Articl...reshold0.phtml
>>
>> Thus, high-def discs are really a non-starter today and may never get
>> off the ground, absent some innovation such as a good, reliable ripping
>> program, or perhaps a cheap HDDVD burner.
>>
>> The consumer is king and he holds the cards, not the fools who invented
>> the latest DRM. If industry doesn't bend over backyards and lick itself
>> for the entertainment of the king, their rush for profits may have been
>> a true Fool's Errand.
>>
>> Rex
>>

--
Bobbie the Triple Killer
http://members.shaw.ca/bobbie4/index.htm

email Bobbie @
remember to 'remove this'

Bobbie recently switched to Ubuntu 6.
Why? Cause he can, that's why.

Bobbie

While taking a break from performing an interpretive dance of 'Flight of
the Bumble Bee', Neck & Red wrote:

>
> <> wrote in message
> news: oups.com...
>>I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
>> for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove to
>> have been stillborn all along.
>>
>> There are 7 excellent reasons:
>>
>> 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous. Even
>> playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.
>>
>> 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and drive
>> are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The minority of
>> newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this technology.
>> The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive, but without a
>> good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a new monitor &
>> video card, even that is useless.
>
> Why would the consumer want to buy a new tiny monitor and video card when
> he's got a 50" or bigger HDTV in his living room?

Uuuum, because if they bought that HDTV with HDMI input prior to February
of 2006 they'd be SOL so far as connecting a HDCP compliant device to that
old and now antiquated HDMI television. I'd mush rather leave the unusable
antique hanging in the living room and just buy a decent 16:9 monitor for
the computer. It'd be much cheaper.

>
>
>
>
>> 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.
>
> Take the family to see 4 movies and I could have bought the HD-DVD drive for
> my Xbox along with a few movies and had enough left over for popcorn.
>
> Oh, and HD-DVD blows away the picture quality of a movie theater.

Conventional 35mm or 70mm film, yes. especially if it's been through the
projector a couple of hundred times.
IMAX, nope. Not even close.
Digital Projection? Not even close.
Plus I doubt that you have over 2000 watts of Dolby Digital wailing away
in your living room.

--
Bobbie the Triple Killer
http://members.shaw.ca/bobbie4/index.htm

email Bobbie @
remember to 'remove this'

Bobbie recently switched to Ubuntu 6.
Why? Cause he can, that's why.

Bobbie

wrote in
news: oups.com:

> I predict that HDDVD/Bluray will suffer in a prolonged coma, probably
> for the next 5 years. It may never wake up at all and may even prove
> to have been stillborn all along.
>
> There are 7 excellent reasons:
>
> 1. DVD is, exactly like VHS, "good enough", cheap, and ubiquitous.
> Even playing on my computer, the video and audio are crisp.

The flaw in that comparison is that DVD did, in fact, replace VHS.
Therefore, nothing prevents DVD from being replaced by someone else.

> 2. The HDDVD & Bluray hardware including monitor, video card, and
> drive are hyperexpensive and beyond the means of most people. The
> minority of newly-rich people and obsessive gamers cannot support this
> technology. The only hope for HDDVD was the Microsoft $200 USB drive,
> but without a good ripper program to let the consumer avoid buying a
> new monitor & video card, even that is useless.

For the budget-minded, the hardware could be packed onto a high-end
computer system for a bit more than list price. This is already
happening to many OEM machines.

> 3. The Bluray-HDDVD war has only just begun. Expect 2 to 5 years for
> it to be resolved.

That's not a reason, it's a guess.

> 4. Actual movie theaters are far better pictures than HDDVD or Bluray.

They were also better than VHS, that didn't stop DVD. In fact, with
more cheap theaters in operation, the difference may not be as
noticable.

> Even the low-end digital cinema projectors have a 2048-pixel wide
> image.

Irrelevant comparison.

>Compare a $4 matinee ticket to the insane cost of HDDVD &
> Bluray hardware -- even the game systems are expensive. If I'm going
> to spend a crapload of money, I'd rather it be toward LASIK treatment
> or a very good pair of glasses, than on computer hardware or a game
> console.

What about buying 247 boxes of Twinkies? Or, try and chuck silver
dollars into the mall fountain? You could invest in hog futures...

Yes, you *COULD* do any number of these things, but none of them
are relevant to the issue.

> 5. DVD's rippability is perceived by a certain percentage of consumers
> as a precondition for purchasing. Lack of it makes HDDVD/Bluray a
> non-starter. No one wants to do business with Scrooge companies that
> invent nasty DRM like AACS, let alone cave in to terrorist
> organizations like the RIAA and MPAA and cower at their feet.

The same thing was said before DVD was cracked. Hell, Divx might even
have been cracked eventually had anyone thought it worthwhile to do so.

> 6. Since the US Treasury just announced that the USA is in fact
> bankrupt, and the dollar is ready to crash anyway, it is only a matter
> of time before this suppressed news reaches the already-frugal buying
> public in the USA. When it does, and they lift their heads out of the
> sand, people are not going to rush to buy luxuries. It will be 5 or 10
> years before the economy recovers, if it ever does. Source:
>
> http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/1217.html

I don't think the general public will lift its collective head out of
the sand anytime soon, on this issue or any other.

> 7. Better technology is always coming. You may have noticed the
> stories on Digg/Reddit about the man who has a patent on a 100GB
> CDROM, or about the holographic DVD. By the time the HDDVD/Bluray
> conflict is resolved, people may no longer need them! Example source:

The people that hold off on new technology won't even be concerned by
this debate. Their very nature will keep them away for over 15 years.
Hell, some people haven't even moved to DVD yet.

I'm not saying that BR/HD isn't a stillborn format, but I don't think
your examples are evidence to support that idea.


--

Aaron J. Bossig

http://www.GodsLabRat.com
http://www.dvdverdict.com

Aaron J. Bossig