How fast will video card prices drop?

This is a question for all the video card fanatics, the ones that
change video cards *really* often:

I've decided to get either an ATI 9800XT or the Nvidia 5950 Ultra.
These are the current top-end models, and go for about $500 in the
stores, or about $375 online.

I know that ATI is about to release the X800 in June or July, and
Nvidia is going to release the 6800 at about the same time.

What I'm curious about is how quickly I can expect the prices for the
9800/5950 to drop once they're no longer the flagship models, and
where you think the prices for the 9800 and 5950 will end up once the
dust settles and the X800/6800 have been available for a few months.

From past history, do you think the 5950/9800 will end up in the
$250-$350 range, and if so, how long should I wait for this to happen?

I don't mind paying the money, but I'd feel silly buying the 9800 or
5950 when they hit $300, only to have them be $200 (or less) a month
later.

Thanks for any advice. My current card is a GeForce 3, so I obviously
don't update often enough to have a feel for the pricing trends.

Scott Gardner

Scott Gardner

The industry is changing all the time. It is possible that the new cards may
be higher priced, and therefore the card you want would still be the same
price. Only the manufacture of their card would be able to answer this
question. Infact, if this was accurately predicable, there are some
investors that would be able to become wealthy overnight.

I would suggest you get what you want when you want it. It is best to take
in to consideration the use of the device you buy, rather than the cost
alone. This industry is changing constantly, and very shortly after you make
a purchase, there will be a new version of what you bought in very short
time.

--

Jerry G.
=====


"Scott Gardner" <> wrote in message
news:...
This is a question for all the video card fanatics, the ones that
change video cards *really* often:

I've decided to get either an ATI 9800XT or the Nvidia 5950 Ultra.
These are the current top-end models, and go for about $500 in the
stores, or about $375 online.

I know that ATI is about to release the X800 in June or July, and
Nvidia is going to release the 6800 at about the same time.

What I'm curious about is how quickly I can expect the prices for the
9800/5950 to drop once they're no longer the flagship models, and
where you think the prices for the 9800 and 5950 will end up once the
dust settles and the X800/6800 have been available for a few months.

From past history, do you think the 5950/9800 will end up in the
$250-$350 range, and if so, how long should I wait for this to happen?

I don't mind paying the money, but I'd feel silly buying the 9800 or
5950 when they hit $300, only to have them be $200 (or less) a month
later.

Thanks for any advice. My current card is a GeForce 3, so I obviously
don't update often enough to have a feel for the pricing trends.

Scott Gardner

"Scott Gardner" <> wrote in message
news:...
> This is a question for all the video card fanatics, the ones that
> change video cards *really* often:
>
> I've decided to get either an ATI 9800XT or the Nvidia 5950 Ultra.
> These are the current top-end models, and go for about $500 in the
> stores, or about $375 online.
>
> I know that ATI is about to release the X800 in June or July, and
> Nvidia is going to release the 6800 at about the same time.
>
> What I'm curious about is how quickly I can expect the prices for the
> 9800/5950 to drop once they're no longer the flagship models, and
> where you think the prices for the 9800 and 5950 will end up once the
> dust settles and the X800/6800 have been available for a few months.
>
> From past history, do you think the 5950/9800 will end up in the
> $250-$350 range, and if so, how long should I wait for this to happen?
>
> I don't mind paying the money, but I'd feel silly buying the 9800 or
> 5950 when they hit $300, only to have them be $200 (or less) a month
> later.

It's a complex situation, because the industry is gearing up for a rapid
switchover from AGP to PCI Express interface. AGP is going to fade into
obsolescence. You might want to wait awhile before dropping serious coin on
a new video card. The AGP prices overall will probably fall when PCI
Express, and the new BTX specification takes hold.

On Sat, 29 May 2004 07:14:34 -0400, "Jerry G." <>
wrote:

>The industry is changing all the time. It is possible that the new cards may
>be higher priced, and therefore the card you want would still be the same
>price. Only the manufacture of their card would be able to answer this
>question. Infact, if this was accurately predicable, there are some
>investors that would be able to become wealthy overnight.

Thanks for the reply. The retail price points for the new AT X800 and
Nvidia 6800 cards have already been announced, and they're priced at
exactly the same point at the current 9800 XT and 5950 Ultra cards.

So, the question isn't *whether* the prices for the current cards will
drop when the new cards are released, it's *when* will they drop, and
how much?

Video cards are a weird market that doesn't have a lot of gradiation
in the pricing. There are the "top-dog" cards that have always gone
for $500-600, then there are the high-performance cards in the
$200-$250 range. There's usually not much in the way of cards in
between the two.

The only thing I'm curious is how long it takes for a card to drop out
of the $500 range once a new '"top dog" comes out. Does it happen
overnight, or will CompUSA and other retail stores actually be selling
the new ATI X800 for $500 while they continue to sell the old ATI
9800XT for its current price of $500 as well? I find that a little
hard to believe.

>
>I would suggest you get what you want when you want it. It is best to take
>in to consideration the use of the device you buy, rather than the cost
>alone. This industry is changing constantly, and very shortly after you make
>a purchase, there will be a new version of what you bought in very short
>time.


I already know *what* I need from a graphics card - that's not my
question. Now that I've decided I want to buy one of the current
flagship models shortly after they're replaced by the new flagships,
all I want to know is how long I'm going to have to wait until the
prices stabilize.

So here's my question again. Historically speaking, how long has it
taken for the price a "top-dog" card to fall under $300 once it's been
replaced by a new flagship?


Thanks again,

Scott Gardner

Just wait till ATI and nVidia release the next gen cards and then we will
know. I wouldn't buy a 9800XT right now, I'd definitely wait. I'd expect the
cards price to drop pretty quickly once the next gen's are solidly in all of
the retail channels. That could be a while or it could happen right away.
Some times, a new gen part is launched but availability is spotty or even
rare. If that's the case, the price won't drop on what the part is
replacing. So, it's really impossible to tell what will happen till it does.

"Scott Gardner" <> wrote in message
news:...
> This is a question for all the video card fanatics, the ones that
> change video cards *really* often:
>
> I've decided to get either an ATI 9800XT or the Nvidia 5950 Ultra.
> These are the current top-end models, and go for about $500 in the
> stores, or about $375 online.
>
> I know that ATI is about to release the X800 in June or July, and
> Nvidia is going to release the 6800 at about the same time.
>
> What I'm curious about is how quickly I can expect the prices for the
> 9800/5950 to drop once they're no longer the flagship models, and
> where you think the prices for the 9800 and 5950 will end up once the
> dust settles and the X800/6800 have been available for a few months.
>
> From past history, do you think the 5950/9800 will end up in the
> $250-$350 range, and if so, how long should I wait for this to happen?
>
> I don't mind paying the money, but I'd feel silly buying the 9800 or
> 5950 when they hit $300, only to have them be $200 (or less) a month
> later.
>
> Thanks for any advice. My current card is a GeForce 3, so I obviously
> don't update often enough to have a feel for the pricing trends.
>
> Scott Gardner
>
>
>