New DVDs: blue vs red again.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/26/tech...ch/dvd_format/

New DVDs: blue vs red again

As the battle between two competing formats heats up, consumers look
to be the big losers.

January 26, 2005: 12:25 PM EST
By Krysten Crawford, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Wondering what all the hullabaloo's about in
the battle over next generation DVDs?

Here's what consumers need to know: one of the two formats under
development, called HD DVD and due out later this year, is compatible
with existing DVD players. That means all those ultimate editions of
Arnold Schwarzenegger as the pre-gubernator-Terminator will play on
the new HD DVD players.

The other DVD format, called Blu-ray, won't. It's an entirely
different technology with significantly more memory than today's
standard DVD. Blu-ray machines, which operate using a blue laser
instead of the traditional red laser, will be expensive when they hit
the market sometime next year. Owning one will mean building a DVD
library from scratch.

Something else consumers should know: regardless of which format
prevails, they're going to pay more for DVDs.

Peter Chernin, president of News Corp. (Research) and its Fox
Entertainment unit, estimated recently that high-definition DVDs will
sell for about $20 to $25 apiece, compared to around $15 for today's
DVDs.

"I think you'll see high-def DVDs come out a higher price point,"
Chernin said recently at a Citigroup Smith Barney media conference. "I
think we have an opportunity to win back a couple of bucks of
(improved profit) margin on high-def DVDs."

But in the hunt for meatier profits, Hollywood finds itself caught in
fierce fight between equipment makers over which high-definition
standard is better. Both technologies are meant to capitalize on
growingdemand for high-definition television, or HDTV, as well as data
storage.

At stake is the lucrative market for movies on DVD, estimated at up to
$26 billion last year. Studios pocket up to 80 cents of each dollar
from DVD sales, compared to about 50 cents of each box office dollar.

The longer the battle wages over the two competing technologies,
however, the more Hollywood executives and some analysts fret that the
DVD cash cow is about to take a major hit.

"We have a classic market-dividing format war just like we had with
VHS and Betamax," said Forrester Research vice president Ted Schadler,
referring to the old struggle between the first mass-market
videocassettes, ultimately won by VHS, but at a price.

"That (competition) slowed the market adoption and left a lot of
consumers really grumpy," said Schadler. "The same thing will happen
here, especially since consumers were burned once. They know if they
make the wrong choicethey'll be stuck holding the bag" if one format
becomes obsolete.
Hollywood takes sides

In recent months, Walt Disney President Robert Iger and other
Hollywood titans have said they would like to see a single format
emerge. But like all new technologies that affect more than one
industry, the tug-of-war over new DVDs is fraught with competing
interests and strange bedfellows.

For now, Hollywood's allegiances are split. Disney and major video
game makers like Electronic Arts and Vivendi/Universal Games say they
favor Blu-ray, which equipment makers led by Sony have spent years --
and about $1 billion -- developing.

Toshiba and other HD DVD developers have won the backing of more movie
studios in recent months, with Warner Bros., Universal and Paramount
all publicly embracing the technology.

Other studios so far have been noncommittal. "We are trying to play
both of them off against each other," said Fox's Chernin. Calling
today's DVD "one of the leakiest copyright protections known to man,"
Chernin said the company is leaning toward Blu-ray but will ultimately
pick whichever format is more secure.

Both technologies claim to have strong piracy safeguards. Their
primary differences are in price and storage capacity.
Memory versus cost

The beauty of Blu-ray is its massive memory, which makes it incredibly
expensive but is the main reason the video game industry has embraced
it, according to Aditya Kishore at Yankee Group and other industry
analysts. HD DVD, on the other hand, is far cheaper and simpler to
introduce, given its compatibility with existing DVD players.

Quality-wise, analysts are split on which format is superior.

"HD DVD is just an extremely elegant extension of today's existing
technology," said Gerry Kaufhold at In-Stat/MDR, a technology industry
research firm,"and it arguably can sell a lot of (discs) over the next
three or four years. But looking to 2009 and beyond, Blu-ray is really
the technology that gets you the higher storage that you need."

For now, a format war appears inevitable.

"It's starting to look as though both camps have sufficient backing to
stick around for awhile," said Yankee Group's Kishore. Working in
everyone's favor, however, is the relatively slow adoption of
high-definition television. Yankee Group estimates that 15 percent of
American households now own one, with Forrester estimating 10 percent
at most. Both market research firms expect sales to grow, with Yankee
group estimating that 60 percent of U.S. households will own an HDTV
by 2009.

And without an HDTV, there's no need for a high-definition DVD player.
Which means there appears to be time to avoid Betamax-VHS redux. One
option, albeit an expensive one, is to design DVD players with dual
compatibility.

Another possible fix: consumers stick with their existingDVD players
-- and keep all those Schwarzenegger titles intact -- for now. Top of
page






"Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game
because they almost always turn out to be -- or to be indistinguishable from
-- self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free time."
- Neil Stephenson, _Cryptonomicon_

Allan

On Wed, 26 Jan 2005 14:22:43 -0500, Allan
<> wrote:

>http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/26/tech...ch/dvd_format/

The only major problem (apart from the format war) is that
the Fox executive saw high prices for the new DVDs, much the
same as DVD prices were in 1998. But, this "margin win" that
he talks about could conceivably drive more people into the
broadcast realm, with movies on demand. Consumers who cared
and are savvy enough will figure a way to record those HDTV
shows for a fraction of the cost of a new DVD player and new
discs.
-Rich

RichA

Allan wrote:
> Another possible fix: consumers stick with their existingDVD players
> -- and keep all those Schwarzenegger titles intact -- for now. Top of
> page

Which is what 97% of people are going to be doing for a long time.
Including myself. HD video is nice, but there is no way I'm going to
throw out 500+ DVDs that I spent a good deal of money on just
because a better format is on the market. Most of the DVDs that
I own look fine as is. I'm happy enough.

Brian The Demolition Man Little

Brian The Demolition Man Little

In article <>,
Allan <> wrote:

> Another possible fix: consumers stick with their existingDVD players
> -- and keep all those Schwarzenegger titles intact -- for now. Top of
> page

Now that's the sensible solution. **** HD-DVD, **** Blu-Ray and ****
their stupid ass format war.
--
"Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we.
They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people,
and neither do we." - George Dumbya Bush

Black Locust

In article <cbadnffUT5nyiWXcRVn->,
"Brian The Demolition Man Little" <> wrote:

> Which is what 97% of people are going to be doing for a long time.
> Including myself. HD video is nice, but there is no way I'm going to
> throw out 500+ DVDs that I spent a good deal of money on just
> because a better format is on the market. Most of the DVDs that
> I own look fine as is. I'm happy enough.

*High fives Brian. That's what I like to read.
--
"Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we.
They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people,
and neither do we." - George Dumbya Bush

Black Locust

If I buy a Blu-ray, why do I need to toss my old player and all the DVDs
I've collected. Just hook it up to another input and keep the old one.
I've got two players hooked up to my TV right now anyway.

"Allan" <> wrote in message
news:...
> http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/26/tech...ch/dvd_format/
>
> New DVDs: blue vs red again
>
> As the battle between two competing formats heats up, consumers look
> to be the big losers.
>
> January 26, 2005: 12:25 PM EST
> By Krysten Crawford, CNN/Money staff writer
>
> NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Wondering what all the hullabaloo's about in
> the battle over next generation DVDs?
>
> Here's what consumers need to know: one of the two formats under
> development, called HD DVD and due out later this year, is compatible
> with existing DVD players. That means all those ultimate editions of
> Arnold Schwarzenegger as the pre-gubernator-Terminator will play on
> the new HD DVD players.
>
> The other DVD format, called Blu-ray, won't. It's an entirely
> different technology with significantly more memory than today's
> standard DVD. Blu-ray machines, which operate using a blue laser
> instead of the traditional red laser, will be expensive when they hit
> the market sometime next year. Owning one will mean building a DVD
> library from scratch.
>
> Something else consumers should know: regardless of which format
> prevails, they're going to pay more for DVDs.
>
> Peter Chernin, president of News Corp. (Research) and its Fox
> Entertainment unit, estimated recently that high-definition DVDs will
> sell for about $20 to $25 apiece, compared to around $15 for today's
> DVDs.
>
> "I think you'll see high-def DVDs come out a higher price point,"
> Chernin said recently at a Citigroup Smith Barney media conference. "I
> think we have an opportunity to win back a couple of bucks of
> (improved profit) margin on high-def DVDs."
>
> But in the hunt for meatier profits, Hollywood finds itself caught in
> fierce fight between equipment makers over which high-definition
> standard is better. Both technologies are meant to capitalize on
> growingdemand for high-definition television, or HDTV, as well as data
> storage.
>
> At stake is the lucrative market for movies on DVD, estimated at up to
> $26 billion last year. Studios pocket up to 80 cents of each dollar
> from DVD sales, compared to about 50 cents of each box office dollar.
>
> The longer the battle wages over the two competing technologies,
> however, the more Hollywood executives and some analysts fret that the
> DVD cash cow is about to take a major hit.
>
> "We have a classic market-dividing format war just like we had with
> VHS and Betamax," said Forrester Research vice president Ted Schadler,
> referring to the old struggle between the first mass-market
> videocassettes, ultimately won by VHS, but at a price.
>
> "That (competition) slowed the market adoption and left a lot of
> consumers really grumpy," said Schadler. "The same thing will happen
> here, especially since consumers were burned once. They know if they
> make the wrong choicethey'll be stuck holding the bag" if one format
> becomes obsolete.
> Hollywood takes sides
>
> In recent months, Walt Disney President Robert Iger and other
> Hollywood titans have said they would like to see a single format
> emerge. But like all new technologies that affect more than one
> industry, the tug-of-war over new DVDs is fraught with competing
> interests and strange bedfellows.
>
> For now, Hollywood's allegiances are split. Disney and major video
> game makers like Electronic Arts and Vivendi/Universal Games say they
> favor Blu-ray, which equipment makers led by Sony have spent years --
> and about $1 billion -- developing.
>
> Toshiba and other HD DVD developers have won the backing of more movie
> studios in recent months, with Warner Bros., Universal and Paramount
> all publicly embracing the technology.
>
> Other studios so far have been noncommittal. "We are trying to play
> both of them off against each other," said Fox's Chernin. Calling
> today's DVD "one of the leakiest copyright protections known to man,"
> Chernin said the company is leaning toward Blu-ray but will ultimately
> pick whichever format is more secure.
>
> Both technologies claim to have strong piracy safeguards. Their
> primary differences are in price and storage capacity.
> Memory versus cost
>
> The beauty of Blu-ray is its massive memory, which makes it incredibly
> expensive but is the main reason the video game industry has embraced
> it, according to Aditya Kishore at Yankee Group and other industry
> analysts. HD DVD, on the other hand, is far cheaper and simpler to
> introduce, given its compatibility with existing DVD players.
>
> Quality-wise, analysts are split on which format is superior.
>
> "HD DVD is just an extremely elegant extension of today's existing
> technology," said Gerry Kaufhold at In-Stat/MDR, a technology industry
> research firm,"and it arguably can sell a lot of (discs) over the next
> three or four years. But looking to 2009 and beyond, Blu-ray is really
> the technology that gets you the higher storage that you need."
>
> For now, a format war appears inevitable.
>
> "It's starting to look as though both camps have sufficient backing to
> stick around for awhile," said Yankee Group's Kishore. Working in
> everyone's favor, however, is the relatively slow adoption of
> high-definition television. Yankee Group estimates that 15 percent of
> American households now own one, with Forrester estimating 10 percent
> at most. Both market research firms expect sales to grow, with Yankee
> group estimating that 60 percent of U.S. households will own an HDTV
> by 2009.
>
> And without an HDTV, there's no need for a high-definition DVD player.
> Which means there appears to be time to avoid Betamax-VHS redux. One
> option, albeit an expensive one, is to design DVD players with dual
> compatibility.
>
> Another possible fix: consumers stick with their existingDVD players
> -- and keep all those Schwarzenegger titles intact -- for now. Top of
> page
>
>
>
>
>
>
> "Arguing with anonymous strangers on the Internet is a sucker's game
> because they almost always turn out to be -- or to be indistinguishable
from
> -- self-righteous sixteen-year-olds possessing infinite amounts of free
time."
> - Neil Stephenson, _Cryptonomicon_

William Oertell

On Wed, 26 Jan 2005 18:13:54 -0800, William Oertell <> wrote:
>If I buy a Blu-ray, why do I need to toss my old player and all the DVDs
>I've collected. Just hook it up to another input and keep the old one.
>I've got two players hooked up to my TV right now anyway.

It's just hysteria. It's not like I had to junk my laserdisc collection when
DVD came around. Thanks to the laserdisc->dvd hysteria, I bought most of the
collection at one tenth the original selling price.

With any luck, the same thing will happen with the dvd->hddvd hysteria.

I'll give you $20 for you entire dvd collection.

TCS

On Wed, 26 Jan 2005 16:09:12 -0600, "Brian The Demolition Man Little"
<> wrote:

>Allan wrote:
>> Another possible fix: consumers stick with their existingDVD players
>> -- and keep all those Schwarzenegger titles intact -- for now. Top of
>> page
>
>Which is what 97% of people are going to be doing for a long time.
>Including myself. HD video is nice, but there is no way I'm going to
>throw out 500+ DVDs that I spent a good deal of money on just
>because a better format is on the market. Most of the DVDs that
>I own look fine as is. I'm happy enough.
>
>Brian The Demolition Man Little
>

And that is a point. Today, they seem to use "image modification"
products like soft-filtering all the time. This erodes the actual
resolution of the film or video stock, making it questionable to
go from DVD to HDTV, when there may be no major (if any) gains
for doing it. You look at an old movie done around 1970, no
soft-filtering and the resolution is available to be utilized by
HD.
-Rich

RichA

On 1/26/2005 6:13:54 PM, William Oertell wrote:

> If I buy a Blu-ray, why do I need to toss my old player and all the DVDs
> I've collected. Just hook it up to another input and keep the old one.
> I've got two players hooked up to my TV right now anyway.

People have this odd notion that when a new format comes out, it causes
your old stuff to turn to dust. I don't get it either.

When I get the next generation player, I'll be mostly ADDING to my
current collection, NOT replacing it.
--
"What we are dealing with here is a perfect engine, er... an eating
machine. It's really a miracle of evolution. All this machine does is
swim and eat and make little sharks and that's all."

Now playing: "Demons & Wizards - Poor Man's Crusade"

Tarkus

William Oertell wrote:

> If I buy a Blu-ray, why do I need to toss my old player and all the DVDs
> I've collected. Just hook it up to another input and keep the old one.
> I've got two players hooked up to my TV right now anyway.

The CNN/Money article has some serious errors. Both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray
use the same blue wavelength laser, so the Blue vs Red headline is
non-sensical. We are months away from seeing any specs, but both type of
players are very likely to have backward compatibility in reading DVDs.
Except for some niche market high end players, I can't see any of the
mainstream makes selling HD disk player which don't play DVDs or CDs.

While I have an HD TV, I intend to just keep an eye on the format war
and see out it plays out. I don't see the need to rush out and spend $
getting either format - especially if they down-rezz the component
output to a max of 480p as is widely rumored. The picture I get from DVD
looks pretty damn good on an HD set to me. Yes, HD movies on the various
HD channels look even better, but not better enough to spend big bucks
for the next several years.

Alan F

Alan Figgatt