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The far future.

 
 
Ian Stirling
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      04-10-2004
What will the camera market look like in 2014?

Film will presumably be hanging on, but will be seen by many as
only used by people who won't get with the program.

Assuming that memory gets ever more dense, you'r probably looking at
somewhere around 2G-32G being almost free to build into the camera.

(depending on assumptions on growth of memory capacity)

Optics won't have changed.

Processor speed will be very fast, as will DSP.

The lowest end digital cameras will be 3-4Mp, fixed focus with
maybe 2G of memory, and no viewfinder.
Perhaps $10.

What about the high end?
 
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John Bean
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      04-10-2004
On Sat, 10 Apr 2004 18:27:27 GMT, Ian Stirling wrote:
> Optics won't have changed.


You think?

http://www.philips.com/InformationCe...066&lNodeId=13

or http://tinyurl.com/yw6l6 if the url above is too long.

I'm not saying this is the only way forward, but for small sensors it looks
promising. I think optics will change quite a lot in the future.

--
John Bean

To err is human - and to blame it on a computer is even more so (Robert
Orben)
 
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Hans-Georg Michna
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      04-10-2004
Ian Stirling <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:

>What will the camera market look like in 2014?
>
>Film will presumably be hanging on, but will be seen by many as
>only used by people who won't get with the program.
>
>Assuming that memory gets ever more dense, you'r probably looking at
>somewhere around 2G-32G being almost free to build into the camera.
>
>(depending on assumptions on growth of memory capacity)
>
>Optics won't have changed.
>
>Processor speed will be very fast, as will DSP.
>
>The lowest end digital cameras will be 3-4Mp, fixed focus with
>maybe 2G of memory, and no viewfinder.
>Perhaps $10.
>
>What about the high end?


Ian,

quite possible.

I expect cameras to have lots of automatic image enhancement
functions, flash red eye removal being only the simplest.

The difference between still photo cameras and movie cameras
could disappear.

Hans-Georg

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mark_digital
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      04-10-2004

"Ian Stirling" <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote in message
news:j0Xdc.28914$(E-Mail Removed)9.net...
:What will the camera market look like in 2014?

--------
There will be cameras all over the place. All one will have
to do is contact security and ask for a pic of them at a
particular place and time and voilla! they got it. No need
to spend money (credits maybe?)or waste time with individual
apparatuses.

mark_




 
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Charles Schuler
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      04-10-2004

"Ian Stirling" <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote in message
news:j0Xdc.28914$(E-Mail Removed)9.net...
> What will the camera market look like in 2014?


Barring severe world disastors in the interim, it should look robust!

> Film will presumably be hanging on, but will be seen by many as
> only used by people who won't get with the program.


Film v digital debates will have enjoyed a well deserved death by then.
Film will be used for special applications just as vacuum tubes are still
used for special applications now.

> Assuming that memory gets ever more dense, you'r probably looking at
> somewhere around 2G-32G being almost free to build into the camera.


Who knows? Moore's Law has to eventually bump into quantum-mechanical
limits, but by 2014 a brand new paradigm might exist. Tough call!

> Optics won't have changed.


Everything changes. Fluid lenses ... QM optics ... who knows?

> Processor speed will be very fast, as will DSP.


DSP will make significant contributions to digital imaging, as it already
has. Foveon type sensors might be the norm?

> The lowest end digital cameras will be 3-4Mp, fixed focus with
> maybe 2G of memory, and no viewfinder.
> Perhaps $10.


Throw-away digitals? Why not?

> What about the high end?


Film will have long been buried for most users. Metering will be both
intelligent and user interactive at the same time. Same goes for auto
focus, white balance, etc. Quality movies will be easily shot with small
cameras that are also capable of high quality single images. Special
effects (like IR photography) will be available with a button press.
Built-in RF links to the WWW and other networks/computers will be common.
Cameras will be combined with other functions (the cell phones that now take
shots are a clue as to where this is going).


 
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Ian Stirling
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      04-10-2004
Hans-Georg Michna <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
> Ian Stirling <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>
>>What will the camera market look like in 2014?
>>
>>Film will presumably be hanging on, but will be seen by many as
>>only used by people who won't get with the program.
>>
>>Assuming that memory gets ever more dense, you'r probably looking at
>>somewhere around 2G-32G being almost free to build into the camera.
>>
>>(depending on assumptions on growth of memory capacity)
>>
>>Optics won't have changed.
>>
>>Processor speed will be very fast, as will DSP.
>>
>>The lowest end digital cameras will be 3-4Mp, fixed focus with
>>maybe 2G of memory, and no viewfinder.
>>Perhaps $10.
>>
>>What about the high end?


> I expect cameras to have lots of automatic image enhancement
> functions, flash red eye removal being only the simplest.
>
> The difference between still photo cameras and movie cameras
> could disappear.


I suppose a likely result is that you'll see more and more times
where the camera actually takes pictures all the time it's "on".

If you click the button, you get the image it's taken then, or can
choose to save the series of pictures (taken at several-many times a second)
surrounding the "click".

Things like digital motion compensation, where rather than moving the
image around with mirrors, it's added up digitally, so camera shake goes
away, even at high zooms with the smallest cameras.

Organic LEDs, and other sorts of display technology will make the
screen able to be thinner, cheaper, and easier to integrate.

Tablet PCs will have gotten cheaper and cheaper, and the displays
will be getting towards where they are a suitable medium to view
photos on a full quality, displacing prints to an extent.
 
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Hans-Georg Michna
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      04-11-2004
Ian Stirling <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:

>I suppose a likely result is that you'll see more and more times
>where the camera actually takes pictures all the time it's "on".
>
>If you click the button, you get the image it's taken then, or can
>choose to save the series of pictures (taken at several-many times a second)
>surrounding the "click".


Ian,

actually I was very close to writing exactly that as well and
then narrowly decided to hold back, so we seem to think in
parallel in these matters.

>Things like digital motion compensation, where rather than moving the
>image around with mirrors, it's added up digitally, so camera shake goes
>away, even at high zooms with the smallest cameras.


Yes, I think that likely too.

I also find it quite likely that either of two things can happen
that are entirely unforeseeable for most.

1. Entirely new features crop up that nobody had thought of
before.

2. The camera gets combined with other devices and interacts
with them in ways nobody had thought of before.

Hans-Georg

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Ian Stirling
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      04-11-2004
Hans-Georg Michna <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
> Ian Stirling <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>
>>I suppose a likely result is that you'll see more and more times
>>where the camera actually takes pictures all the time it's "on".
>>
>>If you click the button, you get the image it's taken then, or can
>>choose to save the series of pictures (taken at several-many times a second)
>>surrounding the "click".


>>Things like digital motion compensation, where rather than moving the
>>image around with mirrors, it's added up digitally, so camera shake goes
>>away, even at high zooms with the smallest cameras.

>
> Yes, I think that likely too.
>
> I also find it quite likely that either of two things can happen
> that are entirely unforeseeable for most.
>
> 1. Entirely new features crop up that nobody had thought of
> before.


A feature I think quite likely eventually, though it's hard to nail
down a likely time, is a camera with many lenses, to boost light
gathering ability.
If you have a 50mm sensor, then the lenses are going to be large and
heavy.
If instead, you put 25 10mm sensors on, with 25 lenses (probably fixed)
then you gain quite a bit in size and weight.
This can pick up images in much lower light, and may be very suitable for
a camera that's just jammed in a pocket, as you can ignore dirt/scratches
too.
 
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DM
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      04-12-2004
Ian Stirling <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote in message news:<j0Xdc.28914$(E-Mail Removed)9.net>.. .
> What will the camera market look like in 2014?


C/N/M/P/O/F etc will come out with a new DSLR every 6 months which
obsoletes the previous model. They'll come out with a new P&S every
couple of weeks. People will spend money like mad in the upgrade frenzy.
Lots of people will lose their savings and go broke, begging for food
on street corners after pawning their 14 DSLR's and lenses. We will
see the economy go crazy and Japan grow really rich, thanks to everyone
buying digitals at alarming rates. Yes, it is all a ploy for world
domination.
 
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Ron Bean
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      04-14-2004

"Charles Schuler" <(E-Mail Removed)> writes:

>Film v digital debates will have enjoyed a well deserved death by then.
>Film will be used for special applications just as vacuum tubes are still
>used for special applications now.


People have not stopped arguing about vacuum tubes.
I'd be very surprised if they stopped arguing about film.



 
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