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Will $1K be the magic number for consumer DSLR's?

 
 
Lisa Horton
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      08-22-2003
The Rebel name says entry level. The styling is consistent with entry
level SLR's, although the feature set is richer. But it's still almost
4X the price of a film Rebel.

In R.P.E.35mm, we continually see people wondering if they should get
Rebel or an Elan, better body or better starting lens(es). If these
potential Rebel purchasers are hesitant to spend an extra couple of
hundred, are they going to be willing/able to spend an extra $600 for
digital?

Or will the real market for the Digital Rebel be the current Elan
(mid-range) level purchasers, and the Rebel market continuing to wait
for the $500 DSLR? Considering that the Rebel line far outsells all the
other models combined, the difference here is big bucks.

I guess we'll all know the answer by January or so, but it may be fun to
speculate now

Lisa
 
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Aaron J. Ginn
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      08-22-2003
Lisa Horton <(E-Mail Removed)> writes:

> The Rebel name says entry level. The styling is consistent with entry
> level SLR's, although the feature set is richer. But it's still almost
> 4X the price of a film Rebel.
>
> In R.P.E.35mm, we continually see people wondering if they should get
> Rebel or an Elan, better body or better starting lens(es). If these
> potential Rebel purchasers are hesitant to spend an extra couple of
> hundred, are they going to be willing/able to spend an extra $600 for
> digital?
>
> Or will the real market for the Digital Rebel be the current Elan
> (mid-range) level purchasers, and the Rebel market continuing to wait
> for the $500 DSLR? Considering that the Rebel line far outsells all the
> other models combined, the difference here is big bucks.
>
> I guess we'll all know the answer by January or so, but it may be fun to
> speculate now



IMO, it's still too much money. You can argue all day about how much
money one will save on film, but you're still talking a huge chunk of
change to the vast majority of the public.

I was looking for my first digicam earlier this year. I debated long
and hard about spending $500+ for a beefed-up point and shoot (Canon
G3), but finally decided to buy a very affordable A40 for a little
over $200 and wait for the first DSLR that came in under $1000. Well,
it's here now, but I still can't justify spending that much money
knowing that something better will probably be around the corner for
half that in a couple of years.

Generally, the people that will settle for a camera the quality of a
Rebel want to use it as a better point and shoot. I still don't think
that the majority of those people are willing to spend 200% more money
just to be digital.

That said, I think the 300D will sell very well. It just won't
displace the film Rebel. I think we're one more product cycle away.


--
"Tis better to be silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and
remove all doubt."
-- Abraham Lincoln
 
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Ethan Trewhitt
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      08-22-2003
According to Aaron J. Ginn <(E-Mail Removed)>
(news:(E-Mail Removed)) :
> Well,
> it's here now, but I still can't justify spending that much money
> knowing that something better will probably be around the corner for
> half that in a couple of years.


Have the digicam companies considered making a DSLR with an upgradeable CCD
(or CMOS)? If they made a standard 35mm modular chip, folks could buy a camera
and upgrade just the chip in the future. A minor firmware refresh could finish
the upgrade. I think people would be more apt to buy one now instead of
waiting for the chips (like you) to acheive better and better resolutions.

--
eth'nT
http://www.hydrous.net
aim: courtarro


 
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Robert A. Barr
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      08-22-2003
>
> Or will the real market for the Digital Rebel be the current Elan
> (mid-range) level purchasers, and the Rebel market continuing to wait
> for the $500 DSLR?


That's going to be the case for a lot of people, I think; but there's an
issue of price instability at work, no doubt. We're used to prices of
anything electronic dropping regularly and predictably, and getting much
more for much less if we wait. I don't think that factor would have as much
influence on the Elan group, since they're already not averse to paying
higher-than-amateur prices for quality gear, which is the D-Rebel's category
now.

I'm getting pretty seriously tempted by this new digital Rebel, though, and
I'm sure it will displace my film Rebel (G) almost 100% of the time.

I bought a Fujifilm 2300 when it first came out -- clearly an entry-level
unit, but reasonable for a P/S -- and its price now is about half of what I
paid. I don't for a minute regret buying it, but that kind of thing really
bothers some folks... especially when it's 100% predictable.

I think the digital Rebel will appeal to people who have been waiting for a
(relatively) serious DSLR at a reasonable price, and who already have a
digital camera; by now, most current owners of digital P/S's know what they
DON'T like about their cameras, and if those shortcomings are taken care of
by the Rebel, it'll sell.

In other words, yeah -- the sub-$1,000 price tag will be a magic number,
like it was for PC's, and there's a lot of people who now know what they
want in a digital, besides not needing film & processing.

 
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Aaron J. Ginn
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      08-22-2003
"Ethan Trewhitt" <(E-Mail Removed)> writes:

> According to Aaron J. Ginn <(E-Mail Removed)>
> (news:(E-Mail Removed)) :
> > Well, it's here now, but I still can't justify spending that much
> >money knowing that something better will probably be around the
> >corner for half that in a couple of years.

>
> Have the digicam companies considered making a DSLR with an
> upgradeable CCD (or CMOS)? If they made a standard 35mm modular chip,
> folks could buy a camera and upgrade just the chip in the future. A
> minor firmware refresh could finish the upgrade. I think people would
> be more apt to buy one now instead of waiting for the chips (like you)
> to acheive better and better resolutions.



I'm not waiting for better resolution. I think 6 MP is more than
enough for me. Anything more requires more storage space and faster
memory cards. I'm really waiting for a price drop to around $500 or
so. I just expect that the increased resolution will come along for
the ride.

Plus, it's not the sensor I'm worried about. The build quality of the
300D simply does not justify a $1000 price tag to me. For that price,
I at least want a magnesium alloy body.

Aaron

--
"I don't want to achieve immortality through my work...
I want to achieve it through not dying."
-- Woody Allen
 
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Lisa Horton
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      08-23-2003


Tony Spadaro wrote:
>
> There is still the "film and procedding" costs to factor in.


[snip]

> One average year of film & processing would make up the difference in
> price between a digital Rebel and the film version. The second year would
> but me ahead with the digital and the third would be all gravy.
>


That savings though, would apply more or less equally to any digital
camera when used as the exclusive replacement for film, yes? Does that
factor have any special significance for any particular price point?
For this price point?

And the film & processing cost is spread out over the year(s), one
doesn't have to produce a lump sum. Even if it's on a credit card paid
off over time, it still feels like spending a kilobuck

I'm wondering too, if this is the DSLR for you Tony

Lisa
 
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Lisa Horton
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      08-23-2003


"Robert A. Barr" wrote:
>
> >
> > Or will the real market for the Digital Rebel be the current Elan
> > (mid-range) level purchasers, and the Rebel market continuing to wait
> > for the $500 DSLR?

>
> That's going to be the case for a lot of people, I think; but there's an
> issue of price instability at work, no doubt. We're used to prices of
> anything electronic dropping regularly and predictably, and getting much
> more for much less if we wait. I don't think that factor would have as much
> influence on the Elan group, since they're already not averse to paying
> higher-than-amateur prices for quality gear, which is the D-Rebel's category
> now.


That is my suspicion as well.

>
> I'm getting pretty seriously tempted by this new digital Rebel, though, and
> I'm sure it will displace my film Rebel (G) almost 100% of the time.
>


I think you have an interesting choice, between a new Rebel D and a used
D30, with each offering different advantages

Lisa
 
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Wayne J
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      08-23-2003

"Tony Spadaro" <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote in message>

>One average year of film & processing would make up the difference in
> price between a digital Rebel and the film version. The second year would
> but me ahead with the digital and the third would be all gravy.


Too bad the gravy always gets spent on a new lens.

Wayne


 
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JK
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      08-23-2003


Tony Spadaro wrote:

> There is still the "film and procedding" costs to factor in. Any user who
> buys and has processed 10 rolls of film (and $2.00 per roll for the film and
> another $2.00 for the negative processing - NO PRINTS - will be spending
> $40.00 that they would not spend with a digital SLR.
> I have used more than 150 rolls of film each of the past 4 years. This
> year will be lower (I think) because I'm working on so many non-photo
> projscts at the moment, but even if I don't shoot another film the 85 I have
> shot comes to about $350.00 - that is not counting how many of those films
> were more expensive and how many rolls of slides were processed at over
> $5.00 each or the pushed rolls etc.
> One average year of film & processing would make up the difference in
> price between a digital Rebel and the film version.


The price difference isn't what matters, it is the full price of the digital
(okay, perhaps minus the trade in value you get for the film camera
body, which may not be much), since most people already have a film
camera.

> The second year would
> but me ahead with the digital and the third would be all gravy.


Most people don't shoot 100+ rolls of film a year. Many people shoot
less than 10 rolls a year. Others shoot plenty of film and rationalize
that a fancy digital camera would save them money in the third year,
however they might be ready to upgrade to a better digital camera
within 18 months or so?

>
>
> --
> http://www.chapelhillnoir.com
> home of The Camera-ist's Manifesto
> The Improved Links Pages are at
> http://www.chapelhillnoir.com/links/mlinks00.html
> New email - Contact on the Menyou page.
> "Lisa Horton" <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote in message
> news:(E-Mail Removed)...
> > The Rebel name says entry level. The styling is consistent with entry
> > level SLR's, although the feature set is richer. But it's still almost
> > 4X the price of a film Rebel.
> >
> > In R.P.E.35mm, we continually see people wondering if they should get
> > Rebel or an Elan, better body or better starting lens(es). If these
> > potential Rebel purchasers are hesitant to spend an extra couple of
> > hundred, are they going to be willing/able to spend an extra $600 for
> > digital?
> >
> > Or will the real market for the Digital Rebel be the current Elan
> > (mid-range) level purchasers, and the Rebel market continuing to wait
> > for the $500 DSLR? Considering that the Rebel line far outsells all the
> > other models combined, the difference here is big bucks.
> >
> > I guess we'll all know the answer by January or so, but it may be fun to
> > speculate now
> >
> > Lisa


 
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David J. Littleboy
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      08-23-2003

"Lisa Horton" <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:

> > I'm getting pretty seriously tempted by this new digital Rebel, though,

and
> > I'm sure it will displace my film Rebel (G) almost 100% of the time.


> I think you have an interesting choice, between a new Rebel D and a used
> D30, with each offering different advantages


Realty check, Lisa: The 300D has the 10D's sensor, electronics, AF, and
metering, all of which are significant improvements over the D30.

The 300D seems essentially identical to the 10D. The 10D's ISO 3200 noise is
more than a bit off the wall, so that's no loss. So far the only dumbing
down is that the AF _may_ be harder to control, and even there, many people
find the Rebel's AF just fine.

So I don't see a used D30 offering _any_ advantages.

Oops. You must be trying to dump your D30. Sorry...

David J. Littleboy
Tokyo, Japan


 
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