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Queen or Crown

 
 
Plato
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      12-14-2004
You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p coin.
It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase pay
the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
"Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.

The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
you win". You say OK.

What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
up?

A: 25%
B: 50%
C: 75%

 
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=?ISO-8859-1?Q?R=F4g=EAr?=
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      12-14-2004
Plato wrote:

> You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
> newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
> good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p coin.
> It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase pay
> the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
> the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
> "Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.
>
> The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
> you win". You say OK.
>
> What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
> up?
>
> A: 25%
> B: 50%
> C: 75%



Odds are since you couldn't understand the last question you asked along
these lines that I won't bother with this one.
 
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philo
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      12-14-2004

"Plato" <|@|.|> wrote in message
news:41bf0e17$0$18461$(E-Mail Removed)...
> You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
> newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
> good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p coin.
> It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase pay
> the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
> the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
> "Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.
>
> The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
> you win". You say OK.
>
> What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
> up?
>



everytime you flip a coin
the odds are 50-50 of it landing on any one side
(assuming the coin is equally weighted of course)


 
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WormWood
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      12-14-2004

"Plato" <|@|.|> wrote in message
news:41bf0e17$0$18461$(E-Mail Removed)...
> You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
> newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
> good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p
> coin.
> It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase
> pay
> the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
> the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
> "Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.
>
> The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
> you win". You say OK.
>
> What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
> up?
>
> A: 25%
> B: 50%
> C: 75%
>

Queen I win, Crown you lose is a better rule.


 
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gruffydd
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      12-14-2004
what are the chances of a hefty fine. such games are most definitely
illegal, and played by idiots


 
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Walter Mautner
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      12-14-2004
Plato wrote:

> You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
> newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
> good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p coin.
> It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase pay
> the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
> the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
> "Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.
>
> The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
> you win". You say OK.
>
> What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
> up?
>
> A: 25%
> B: 50%
> C: 75%


There is no accumulative chance as random theory says, so it's still 50:50.
Remember, the coin is really dumb and doesn't remember where it landed
beforehand. Ah well, it may be prepared and find itself magically attracted
by a magnet buried. Also there is a chance you lose regardlessly of the
landing, just in case a policeman enters the scene :=).
--
Longhorn error#4711: TCPA / NGSCP VIOLATION: Microsoft optical mouse
detected penguin patterns on mousepad. Partition scan in progress
*to*remove*offending*incompatible*products.**Reactivate*your*MS*software.
Linux woodpecker.homnet.at 2.6.9-mm1[LinuxCounter#295241]
 
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Joel Rubin
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      12-15-2004
On 14 Dec 2004 10:03:16 -0600, Plato <|@|.|> wrote:

>You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
>newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
>good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p coin.
>It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase pay
>the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
>the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
>"Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.
>
>The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
>you win". You say OK.
>
>What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
>up?
>
>A: 25%
>B: 50%
>C: 75%


"Games of chance" taking place near railroad stations in which passers
by are invited to play are likely to have more to do with
prestidigitation and the "winner" being a shill for the operator than
with chance.

However, if a game is fair, then the odds on toss #237 (for example)
are 50-50.

There are two "gambler's FALLACIES".

Falacy 1) "A string of heads will continue" (frequently because a
"lucky" person is betting)

Falacy 2) "Well, there's been a string of mostly heads and the law of
odds says heads and tails must be more-or-less balanced so now there
will be a string of mostly tails to balance things out."


 
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Plato
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      12-15-2004
philo wrote:
>
> > You walk up the stairs at Paddington Station and stop to buy a
> > newspaper. Next to the stand you hear some cheering and notice a few
> > good looking blokes around a card table. One guy is flipping a 2p coin.
> > It lands on the Queen and you see this businessman with a briefcase pay
> > the dealer 5 quid. The next 3 tosses it lands on the Crown and you see
> > the dealer pay the businessman 5 quid each time. The businessman says
> > "Sorry time to catch my train" and scurries off 10 quid up.
> >
> > The dealer says to you: "How about a game of 50-50 Queen I win, Crown
> > you win". You say OK.
> >
> > What are the chances the next coin toss will land in your favor, Crown
> > up?

>
> everytime you flip a coin
> the odds are 50-50 of it landing on any one side
> (assuming the coin is equally weighted of course)


So, if as you say in this example, the odds are 50-50, then that means
that the dealer will haul his table across town everyday and work all
day long for ZERO net income in the London fog and rain?


 
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Plato
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      12-15-2004
gruffydd wrote:
>
> what are the chances of a hefty fine. such games are most definitely
> illegal, and played by idiots


You're on the right track. Take 3 card monte for example, there are
still over 5000 games being played every day on the New York streets.


 
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Plato
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      12-15-2004
Joel Rubin wrote:
>
> "Games of chance" taking place near railroad stations in which passers
> by are invited to play are likely to have more to do with
> prestidigitation and the "winner" being a shill for the operator than
> with chance.


OK you got one of the two clues in the question.

> There are two "gambler's FALLACIES".
>
> Falacy 1) "A string of heads will continue" (frequently because a
> "lucky" person is betting)
>
> Falacy 2) "Well, there's been a string of mostly heads and the law of
> odds says heads and tails must be more-or-less balanced so now there
> will be a string of mostly tails to balance things out."


And you got the other clue. There is also a third, false clue intended
to throw you off.


 
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