(Robert Wagner) wrote in message news:<>...
> Tom McGlynn <> wrote:
>
> >One site, http://www.techiwarehouse.com/Cobol/, had
> >some interesting statements about COBOL though. No source is
> >given so take them with as much salt as you like. The one
> >that caught my eye was:
> >
> > 15% of all new applications (5 billion lines) through 2005 will be in COBOL.
>
> The site also says:
>
> "Replacement costs for COBOL systems, estimated at $25 per line, are in the
> hundreds of billions of dollars."
>
> "There are 90,000 COBOL programmers in North America in 2002. Over the next four
> years there will be a 13% decrease in their number due to retirement and death."
>
> Lines per day published elsewhere are usually 12. (FWIW, shops I managed
> averaged 50 lines per day.) Taking 12 lines * $25 / 8 hours = $37.50 per hour.
> That's reasonable.
>
> Taking 15% of 4.6B lines / 3 years / 250 days per year / 82K programmers = 11.3
> lines per day. Check.
>
> I earlier estimated 40,000 mainframe COBOL programmers in the US. The 82,000
> figure given here looks better because it's corroborated by the other numbers.
> Further, 82,000 COBOL programmers / 600,000 total US programmers = 13.7%, which
> agrees with the 15% distribution by language.
>
> Canada's population is 9% of North America (US + Canada). I adjusted the number
> of programmers and lines by .91 to simplify comparison with US statistics.
>
> The Web site goes on to say, without corroboration:
>
> "The most highly paid programmers in the next ten years are going to be COBOL
> programmers."
>
> Why? The price of most human labor is determined in the same way as other
> commodities -- by supply and demand. It is not based on some imagined measure of
> worth or difficulty (excepting executives). Let's look at the demand side.
>
> Computerjobs.com, which provides handy statistics, categorizes as Legacy 500 /
> 12,000 = 4% of openings. Some of the 12,000 'technology' jobs are
> non-programmers, optimistically as many as half, so 8%. DICE.com shows 550=COBOL
> / 7,000=(developer or programmer) = 8%. Monster.com returns nearly identical
> numbers.
>
> Why is the demand for COBOL 8% rather than 15%? Because COBOL programmers stay
> in their jobs longer than average? Because companies using COBOL, generally
> large old-line ones, are creating jobs more slowly than average?
Although I agree that demand for COBOL application developement will
continue to grow, if what one Indian consulanting firm told me, a few
years back, is true,COBOL programmer rates probably will probably
drop in North America.
The Indian consulting firm claimed they were training over 20,000
cobol programmers a year in India. In the few Fortune 500 firms I
have worked at any new COBOL developement has been done by consulting
firms with Indian programmers. Maintenance and productions support is
being done by the US staff.